Nate Silver-ing Skate America: LADIES

Short program

Base value
Mao: 34.69
Elena: 32.44
Ashley: 30.54
Mae Bernice: 28.90
Samantha: 27.53
Viktoria: 26.83
Valentina: 26.63
Elene: 26.60
Elizaveta 25.93
Caroline: 20.03

GOE
Ashley: 5.67
Elena: 5.17
Mao: 4.16
Valentina: 3.48
Viktoria: 3.11
Elene: 2.39
Caroline: 1.01
Mae Bernice: 0.89
Elizaveta: 0.45
Samantha: 0.01

Jumps
Ashley: 21.31
Mao: 21.16
Elena: 20.92
Valentina: 16.4
Mae Bernice: 15.7
Viktoria: 15.44
Elene: 15.07
Samantha: 14.20
Elizaveta: 11.66
Caroline: 8.13

Combo
Elena: 10.9 (3Z-3T)
Ashley: 10.3 (3F-3T)
Mao: 8.19 (3Lx-2Lx)
Valentina: 7.80 (3Z-3T)
Elene: 7.2 (3Z-2T)
Mae Bernice: 6.8 (3T-3T)
Viktoria: 6.00 (3T-2T)
Samantha: 5.70 (3L-3L<<)
Caroline 4.20 (3L<-2T)
Elizaveta: 2.60 (1Z-3T)

Single jump
Ashley: 6.81 (3Lx)
Elena: 6.21 (3Lx)
Mao: 5.90 (3F)
Viktoria: 5.10 (3L)
Mae Bernice: 5.10 (3L)
Elizaveta: 5.00 (3L)
Valetina: 4.90 (3S)
Samantha: 4.80 (3F)
Elene: 4.00 (3T)
Caroline: 0.20 (2F<<)

Axel
Mao: 7.07 (3A)
Viktoria: 4.34 (2Ax)
Ashley: 4.2 (2Ax)
Elizaveta: 4.06 (2Ax)
Elene: 3.87 (2A)
Elena: 3.84 (2Ax)
Mae Bernice: 3.8 (2A)
Valentina: 3.70 (2Ax)
Samantha: 3.70 (2Ax)
Caroline: 3.63 (2Ax)

Non-jump
Mao: 17.69
Elena: 16.69
Ashley: 14.90
Elizaveta: 14.72
Viktoria: 14.50
Mae Bernice: 14.09
Valentina: 13.71
Elene: 13.92
Samantha: 13.34
Caroline: 12.91

Some observations:
1.) Ashley won in jumps + GOE. Despite having a lower base value than Mao and Elena, she made up with that deficit with great execution. Ashley's struggle today, ironically were on her spins, which are typically level 4. She has room to grow with this program despite scoring a personal best.
2.) Despite the triple Axel, Mao non-jump elements helped greatly in her success today. The relatively low GOE should be a bit of a concern especially when she faces the other members of the big three, who are known to rack up GOE. Even with -GOE on the Triple Axel she still got a nearly 3 point advantage on the other girls in the end. So she needs to make sure to keep rotating that 3A. If she does that, it will help greatly.
3.) In the end we only had two ladies who succeeded in a cleanly-executed (no UR/-GOE) 3-3: Ashley and Elena. Samantha Cesario is great for trying the 3L-3L, but that << is going to hurt her, so she may need to make some decisions regarding whether she wants to continue doing this combo moving forward.
4.) Speaking of Elena, she had a solid effort both in jumps and non-jump elements. She and Mao were the only two to get level 4 on all elements.
5.) Again the big takeaway is that levels will help, how you execute those elements have a lot of weight as well.
6.) Overall a much higher-scoring competition. Last year, we only had one skater score 60+ (Ashley, 60.61). This year we had three. In addition, places 1-7 scored better than the 4th place finisher from last year (which was Mae-Bernice. She actually scored higher this year but the higher-level of competition put her down into 7th currently). The technical and PCS for the competition were much higher for the top ladies. Last year, Christina Gao posted the highest TES at 31.01. This year Mao did at 38.85. PCS wise, Ashley scored 30 last year. This year she scored 33+ and Mao scored 34+.

Ladies Free Skate

Well lots of confusion here, so let's try to break it down...

Base Value
Elena: 59.30
Mao: 59.18
Elizaveta: 56.53
Mae Bernice: 55.98
Ashley: 54.19
Samantha: 52.54
Valentina: 46.95
ViktoriaL 44.54
Elene: 44.38
Caroline: 24.84

GOE
Elizaveta: 7.77
Samantha: 4.44
Ashley: 4.35
Mao: 3.65
Mae Bernice: 2.33
Elena: -0.26
Caroline: -0.57
Valentina: -2.33
Viktoria: -2.63
Elene: -2.81

Jumps
Elizaveta: 45.20
Mae Bernice: 42.48
Ashley: 41.85
Samantha: 41.08
Mao: 40.84
Elena: 39.81
Valentina: 28.32
Elene: 26.97
Viktoria: 25.20
Caroline: 10.19

Non-Jumps:
Mao: 21.99 (CCoSp4/FCSp4/FCCoSp4/StSq4)
Elena: 19.23 (CCoSp4/FCoSp4/LSp4/StSq3)
Elizaveta: 19.10 (LSp4/FSSp4StSq3/CCoSp4)
Viktoria: 16.71 (CCoSp2/StSq44/FSSp4/LSp3)
Ashley: 16.69 (StSq3/FSSp3/LSp1/CCoSp1)
Valentina: 16.30 (FSSp4/LSp3/StSq3/CCoSp3)
Samantha: 15.90 (FSsp3/LSp1/StSq2/CCoSp3)
Elene: 14.60 (FCCoSp2/StSq3/FSSp2/CCoSp3)
Caroline: 14.08 (FCSp2/StSq2/CCosp3/LSp3)

Comments:

1.) About Mao's score. So the judges did penalize Mao. Two URs, edge call. As you can see, she's 5th as far as jumps go. She makes up some of that gap with her spins/steps/spiral (the scores she got there was 35 percent of her overall TES score). It's worth noting that Yuna scored 74+ in TES for nearly perfect program , so Mao's 62+ here while the second best among the competitors (behind Elizaveta, who did one of her trademark comeback LPs), it is far from what she will need at the Olympics. Also, Mao's GOE should be a concern. Yuna and Carolina pick up GOE like no tomorrow.
1a.) But I guess the question is, HOW did she get 131? Mao's personal best is 134.37 at 2013 Worlds. Let's break down TES at Worlds 2013 further.
First of all her Worlds TES was 65.96, which was 3.13 points higher than her TES at Skate America.

** Her + GOE was about the same at both competitions.
** At Worlds, she had a ratified 3A and a 2A+3T.
Here's here
3A at Worlds: 6.36
3A at Skam: 3.00 (and -1 for the fall)

2A-3T at Worlds: 9.54
2A-2T at Skam: 5.92

** Her combo fared worse as well at SkAm
3F-2L<-2L at Worlds: 8.94
3F-2L<-2L< at Skam: 8.09

** Her 3Z in both competitions were (e) and -GOE, however her 3Z at Worlds was 5.3 vs 5.00 at SKAM So in essence the gap created with those mistakes mistakes on those three elements is 8.13 points.

**Her non-jump elements, however, were improved at SA. At Worlds, her non-jump elements was 20.30 s. 21.99 at Skam a gain of 1.69 points. That's still a gap of 6.44.

** One more thing:
At Worlds she did a 3L-2L and a triple flip that was called UR. Both were in the first half. Total value of those two jumping passes = 10.00
Now at Skam, she did a 3F-2L and she moved the 3L to the second section. Total value of those two jumps =13.41
So with the 3.41 taken into account, the gap is now 3.03, which is close to the difference between the two TES scores.

** But her PCS was higher here (69.54 vs 68.41) at Worlds. Could it have been the level of competition? PCS tends to be scored on a comparative basis, i.e. how you are compared to the rest of your competition. So perhaps, even with her errors, Mao still stood out a whole lot more, leading to the 69 PCS, while at Worlds she had to contend with Yuna and Carolina, who both received higher PCS than she did.

My overall point? One could argue that her PCS might have been too high, but her TES portion can be explained pretty easily.

2.) Ashley got the 3F-3T ratified (that is also the second scoring element of the day at 10.20 points). This is a great thing for her. In the past, she's struggled to get the combo ratified in competition and now that she's done it in both segment, she is more apt to get it ratified in the future even if she's borderline. However, her big concern are the spins. She is capable of doing level 4 spins easily, so getting a level 1 is a bit odd. Finally, the UR/two-foots cost her a few points as well. She is capable of receiving higher +GOE in the long program, so there is additional scoring potential once she cleans up the URs, get the spin levels and boost the +GOE.

3.) Elizaveta made one of her comeback FS. It's almost expected at this point. She was our +GOE winner today. She really needs to get her SP nerves into shape.

4.) Elena was THISCLOSE to getting her 3Z-3T into the second half! Still, she managed to score the highest element of the day with 10.40 points. Elena was rough around the edges, which showed in her -GOE overall. But she was second in non-jump elements.

5.) And some surprising stats from the first group. Sort of sad NBC didn't show them as there was some solid performances. Interesting to see that Mae Bernice was second in jumps behind Elizaveta and ahead of all our medalists today. And then Samantha getting second as far as +GOE, again being Elizaveta.

Loved Samson's explanation regarding Ashley vs Mao in the free skate thread, so putting it here!

samson said:

Well I thought it was a strong start for both ladies. Not lights out, but it's nice to watch a grand prix where three ladies post over 120.

Breaking down the protocols between the two it actually kind of makes sense. As DrivingMissDaisy noted they both did five clean triples.

Ashley's levels on spins and foot work were three level threes and a level one. Mao had a level four on all four elements. As a result the base values for theses ladies programs were very different.

I did an analysis on the two a la Nate Silver-ing and it was kind of illuminating for me so I'll share

BV
Mao: 59.18
Ashley: 54.19
Difference: 4.99 points

GOE
Ashley: 4.35
Mao: 3.65
Difference: .7

Ashley was only able to close the gab to a 4.29 difference, because she also had trouble on two of her jumping passes.

PCS:
Mao: 69.54
Ashley: 66.01
Difference: 3.53

Mao averaged about .44 higher than Ashley on each Program Component meaning she scored between .25 and .5 better from the judges. The largest margin was in skating skills with .53. Of course with factoring those numbers get a little larger but all the same I think the PCS was about right. At this point in the season I think Mao has a stronger Choreographed program and her Skating Skills are much stronger. Mao also looked to have more transitions to me than Ashley. As far as performance/execution and interpretation I would give the edge to Mao still.

This is a good example of how it's hard to see how Mao could rack up so many point with that skate, but she still had five clean triples, high level spins and footwork and great execution of the clean elements.

I'm looking to see both ladies ramp it up going into their next events but it was a great start for both of them. If Ashley wants to see that gap close, other than cleaning up the the two jumps she also needs to get the levels on her spins and footwork UP UP UP. Which she can do.

I kind of want Ashley to get Shae Lynn to come and rework that footwork section. The one in her sp has so much impact and this one somehow doesn't.

Click to expand...

Mae Berenice was horribly underscored Okay, her PCS shouldn't be top in the event, but her jumps are amazing. They deserved a lot more than 0 or +1.

Great analysis Mrs. P! I know breaking it down like this for some people is frustrating, but I really enjoy this. And it also kind of illuminates which skaters and teams seem to really hone in on the IJS and which skaters don't have a strong a grasp of it.

It's nice to see that Samantha had the second highest GOE. I'm not surprised her elements looked so clean an polished. But she too really needs to up the levels of the spins at least if she wants to be more competitive. A nice debut for her nonetheless.

Mrs. P said:

Ladies Free Skate

My overall point? One could argue that her PCS might have been too high, but her TES portion can be explained pretty easily.

Click to expand...

I question some of the UR calls at this competition. I agree that Ashley's 3F/3T should've been called UR in the FS, so she got away with one there. But I'm not so sure that < on her 3Lo was deserved. And if they were going to be that strict, then Mao's second 3F should've also been called UR.

jaylee said:

I question some of the UR calls at this competition. I agree that Ashley's 3F/3T should've been called UR in the FS, so she got away with one there. But I'm not so sure that < on her 3Lo was deserved. And if they were going to be that strict, then Mao's second 3F should've also been called UR.

Click to expand...

Ah, that's a fair point of debate. I guess my goal is to figure out how the judges got to 131, not so much whether she should have scored that TES. I think there's a case to say she should have scored even lower on the TES.

ETA: It does prove a key point however about the weakness of COP. I spent nearly an hour calculating the stuff I typed above. Clearly, the audience in the area isn't going to bother to do that kind of work.

Mrs. P, thank you for the breakdowns that you have compiled in all the disciplines. Your hardwork is appreciated.

Thanks for breaking this down for us. Mao made mistakes on jumps but Ashley didn't skate lights out either. She also lost points on non-jump elements which does add up in the points section. The long could have been closer in points but Mao won this competition.

Mrs. P said:

Ah, that's a fair point of debate. I guess my goal is to figure out how the judges got to 131, not so much whether she should have scored that TES. I think there's a case to say she should have scored even lower on the TES.

ETA: It does prove a key point however about the weakness of COP. I spent nearly an hour calculating the stuff I typed above. Clearly, the audience in the area isn't going to bother to do that kind of work.

Click to expand...

I felt the calls were generous across the board. If they were going to be strict with Mao's jumps, they might have also called Ashley's 3-3, which looked close. She gained a lot of points from that one combination. The end result wouldn't be that different. The fact is Mao did not beat her in jumps but other elements, so that is where Ashley should improve on in the future.