What are Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy's chances of winning the Olympic title? | Golden Skate

What are Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy's chances of winning the Olympic title?

Mao88

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 9, 2011
What are Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy's chances of winning the Olympic title?

Savchenko & Szolkowy finished 6th at the 2006 Olympics. They then won back to back world titles in 2008 and 2009. However, they then had a poor season by their own standards in 2009/10 and could only win the bronze medal at the 2010 Olympics (with Shen Xue & Zhao Hongbo winning the Olympic title). Furthermore, it looks as though history may be repeating itself, as during the current quad, they won back to back world titles in 2011 and 2012, but now appear to have been eclipsed by Volosozhar & Trankov who won both the European and World titles last season. Moreover, with Volosozhar & Trankov winning Skate America in very impressive fashion, it looks as though it is going to very difficult for Savchenko & Szolkowy to regain the initiative.

Hence, how much of a chance do Savchenko & Szolkowy still have of winning the Olympic title?
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Maybe like 2%. They would need to skate totally clean, and the favored Russians would have to fail badly.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
With V/T's form, it will be exceedingly difficult to defeat them. I don't think they will need the 3A as that only gets about 4 or 5 more points (which won't make any difference given the PCS V/T get), and a clean performance will speak volumes in case V/T have errors. V/T have done them a favour by choosing not the most palatable FS, though we have yet to see the Germans (unless they've showed their SP/FS already?).

With home ice advantage though, S/S will indeed have to be perfect, especially with the judges handing out PCS/GOE to V/T like candy on Halloween. The big problem is V/T's scoring potential is monstrously higher than them and the rest of the field.

I think with a fall by V/T and a clean skate by S/S, the win *should* go to the Germans.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I think with a fall by V/T and a clean skate by S/S, the win *should* go to the Germans.

Maybe should but wont happen. Based on the scores V&T are putting up I would venture they have atleast a 2 fall safety cushion on a clean competition by the Germans. That is before even considering the Germans have only done clean competitions 2% of the time in their careers, and V&T are far more likely to have one than S&S are.
 

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 14, 2008
Country
France
S&S made a mistake trying to do the side-by-side Triple Sals at Europeans last year. They've never had any consistency with that element and completely blowing it lost them the Championship. If they had just done good Double Axels, they likely would have edged out V/T. But, since they didn't, they lost all of their momentum (and clearly lost some confidence) going into Worlds.

S&S also didn't have great programs last season. As such, people were ready to crown a new team. S&S need great programs this season. They are the best pair team out there in terms of basics and actually skating as a pair, so they SHOULD win regardless if they are clean; no other team out there is artistic anyway (aside from the glorious Stolbova & Klimov, but they have technical shortcomings). Unfortunately, V&T have been anointed; they are Russia's biggest chance for an Olympic Gold medal in a home-country Olympics and they have been undefeated the past year. Everything is working against S&S now.
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
Have S&S even competed yet this year? V/T already have 2 competitions under their belts. I wonder why S/S didn't do a Senior B like V/T did?
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
v AND t MAY HAVE peaked and are lacking technically but S squared are prone to make errors. it could be close but they probably have a 30percnet chance of winning
 

Big Deal

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 23, 2004
Their chance is close to zero concerning all the circumstances and the fact that judges already announced V/T as an Olympic Champions with the unbeatable scores at the first GP event of the year.

Their "only hope" is Mr. Trankov's problem handling tough situations. The question is that for US as spectators would make it better if it were happen? I don't think so.
The possibly worst version: V/T doing a fawlty program and still winning because of their huge PCS cushion given.

I seriously think that ( even if they are my sentimental favourites like Shen/Zhao was last time) S/S will have a fight to the Silver. They missed too many moments in the past.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Maybe should but wont happen. Based on the scores V&T are putting up I would venture they have atleast a 2 fall safety cushion on a clean competition by the Germans. That is before even considering the Germans have only done clean competitions 2% of the time in their careers, and V&T are far more likely to have one than S&S are.

I don't think the safety is 2 falls if the Germans go clean (assuming the 2 falls would be on elements). BTW, the Germans have had more clean or near-clean competitions than 2% of their career (they wouldn't win as much as they have if that were the case). However, now V/T have greater consistency so clean performances are more likely from them. V/T's huge scores are magnified by the clean performance... I wouldn't expect to see 9.50-10.00's on PCS if there was a fall (e.g. on a SBS jump), and certainly not if there were two major mistakes.

However, as BoP said, they are Russia's biggest chance (and 99% certain their only chance) for a figure skating gold, other than the Team competition. If V/T fall twice though, even home ice support will not save them.
 

kovarkovaelegant

Rinkside
Joined
Oct 24, 2013
I don't think the safety is 2 falls if the Germans go clean (assuming the 2 falls would be on elements). BTW, the Germans have had more clean or near-clean competitions than 2% of their career (they wouldn't win as much as they have if that were the case). However, now V/T have greater consistency so clean performances are more likely from them. V/T's huge scores are magnified by the clean performance... I wouldn't expect to see 9.50-10.00's on PCS if there was a fall (e.g. on a SBS jump), and certainly not if there were two major mistakes.

However, as BoP said, they are Russia's biggest chance (and 99% certain their only chance) for a figure skating gold, other than the Team competition. If V/T fall twice though, even home ice support will not save them.

At last years Worlds S&S barely beat out the Canadian team with comparable mistakes. The judges view them as about equal to the Canadian team right now. The Canadian team would never beat V&T with only the 2 falls pangtongfan referred to, so neither would S&S.
 

sequinsgalore

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 12, 2008
If Volosozhar/Trankov don't make any huge mistakes, I'd say the best Savchenko/Savchenko can hope for is silver. The Russians have big elements that score big +GOE plus the highest PCS. The only way for the Germans to overcome that is to up the difficulty (like 3ATh in SP, and 3FTh and 3ATh, 3T+3T+SEQ and 3S in FS) but I doubt they can go clean with that.

S/S do have a chance - I think - if V/T mess big time on an element, like fall on death spiral or complete botch on a lift.
 

alopatra

Rinkside
Joined
Nov 5, 2006
Recent article about S&S in the german press:
http://www.t-online.de/sport/winter...enko-und-szolkowy-wollen-gold-in-sotschi.html

Steuer admits the performance of V&T at Skate America was perfect and technically at the highest level he has ever seen. Yet he thinks Aliona and Robin are stronger in terms of the difficulty they master.

Robin claims they have 2 best programs of their career this season, with new spins, new lifts and the throw triple axel.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
At last years Worlds S&S barely beat out the Canadian team with comparable mistakes. The judges view them as about equal to the Canadian team right now. The Canadian team would never beat V&T with only the 2 falls pangtongfan referred to, so neither would S&S.

Actually, S/S *still* beat the Canadians even with way more significant errors. That shows that S/S is still way ahead of the Canadians. I kind of feel like they'll get the same treatment though in Sochi. As in, if V/T perform like the Germans in Worlds 2013, and if the Germans go clean like the Canadians in Worlds 2013, V/T will still be placed ahead.

However, the Olympics rewards clean skates.

Do poeple honestly think that V/T will be given gold (or any pairs team for that matter) if they have 2 falls? Especially if the other teams all go clean?
 

skateluvr

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 23, 2011
Lets be honest. Robin and Aliona had big tricks. I have not seen their programs this year. Are they injured? There you have it. The Russians have the classic line-or Tat does. She is a stunning classic Russian pair skater. Him-not so grand. But to think that they will lose on home turf-that is Russia's only gold in FS and they owned pairs until A Canadian team and a Chinese team, both excellent, finally got their due. Shen and Zhao had to wait their turn. This is a fait accompli unless there is a big fall and SS are well and clean.
eta- can someone link their sp and lp? Aliona/Robin...ty.
 

skateluvr

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 23, 2011
Actually, S/S *still* beat the Canadians even with way more significant errors. That shows that S/S is still way ahead of the Canadians. I kind of feel like they'll get the same treatment though in Sochi. As in, if V/T perform like the Germans in Worlds 2013, and if the Germans go clean like the Canadians in Worlds 2013, V/T will still be placed ahead.

However, the Olympics rewards clean skates.

Do poeple honestly think that V/T will be given gold (or any pairs team for that matter) if they have 2 falls? Especially if the other teams all go clean?

Under 6.0 you were right, but IJS CoP is a different ballgame. How about all the Chan falls and wins at worlds?
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Do poeple honestly think that V/T will be given gold (or any pairs team for that matter) if they have 2 falls? Especially if the other teams all go clean?

I dont think V&T will fall twice at the Olympics, but if they do yes I think they would win, even if the other pairs went clean. The only pair who might be able to beat them with 2 falls would be S&S, and that would require them skating cleanly which is hugely unlikely. Teams like Duhamel & Radford, Barazova & Larionov, old Pang & Tong, V&T could comfortably beat with atleast 2 falls and probably more, no problem at all.

Chan as just on example has won many events with more than 2 falls, and sometimes even when his competitors performed well. While the World is inflation is well known in general as skateluvr said COP is a whole other ball game. V&T being on home ice will give them some extra cushion to what they otherwise would have had.
 
Top