Dance Prospects After Two Events

So far in two events 15 teams have competed, and really there have been no contenders eliminated at all, though the team at the stop of the standings is unlikely to make it. At the first two events there have been:

Skate America:

1. Meryl Davis & Charlie White-Will win Japan, and then prepare themselves for their actual first competition of the season at the Finale.

2. Anna Cappellini & Luca Lanotte-Would need to win Japan to seal it, which won't happen, but with teams tending to collect multiple top medals a lot in ice dance, silver should get them in no problem, and bronze makes their chances good. For silver they have to beat Elena Ilynykh & Nikita Katsalapov, which is doable, though hard. For bronze they would really only have to hold off Maia & Alex Shibutani or possible Victoria Sinitsina & Ruslan Zhiganshin, which if they skate clean probably won't be a problem.

3. Maia & Alex Shibutani-Would also have to win Japan to seal it, and to stay in it they need at least silver, which is going to be very difficult for them to get ahead of the Italians; they may need help.

4. Madison Hubbell & Zachary Donohue-Both events complete; bronze in Canada leaves them out of it.

Skate Canada(except Hubbell & Donohue):

1. Tessa Virtue & Scott Moir-Should win France unless Nathalie Pechalat & Fabian Bourzat pull off the shocker.

2. Kaitlyn Weaver & Andrew Pojé-Would have to win Russia to seal it, where beating Ekaterina Bobrova & Dmitri Soloviev is possible, but the Russians will be very much favored. For silver and a likely qualification, they need to fend off Madison Chock & Evan Bates, Ekaterina Riazanova & Ilia Tkachenko & possibly Ksenia Monko & Kirill Khavalian or Piper Gilles & Paul Poirier, but they will be favored there, especially over the latter two teams, leaving them unlikely to finish with less than bronze, which leaves them with a good chance at worst.

4. Ekaterina Riazanova & Ilia Tkachenko-Would probably have to win Russia, which is very unlikely; nor is silver likely, though it's possible.

Contenders yet to compete:

Probable:
Nathalie Pechalat & Fabian Bourzat
Ekaterina Bobrova & Dmitri Soloviev
Elena Ilinykh & Nikita Katsalapov

Possible:
Madison Chock & Evan Bates
Ksenia Monko & Kirill Khavalian
Piper Gilles & Paul Poirier
Gabriella Papadakis & Guillaume Cizeron

...they don't have a second event?!
Victoria Sinitsina & Ruslan Zhiganshin

Thank you for these really interesting analyses! They help me a lot to understand where everyone is. I hope you continue this as the Grand Prix goes on.

MissIzzy said:

So far in two events 15 teams have competed, and really there have been no contenders eliminated at all, though the team at the stop of the standings is unlikely to make it. ..

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Prospects for qualifying for the GPF, presumably?
Do not understand why you say that those at the top of the standings are unlikely to make it. Typo?

MissIzzy said:

Skate America:

1. Meryl Davis & Charlie White-Will win Japan, and then prepare themselves for their actual first competition of the season at the Finale.

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My hunch is that Davis/White do not allow themselves to think in this way, although I understand your intended meaning. I think that D/W take every competition seriously as an opportunity to show their stuff and make a statement. (And I believe the same of Virtue/Moir.)

golden411 said:

Prospects for qualifying for the GPF, presumably?
Do not understand why you say that those at the top of the standings are unlikely to make it. Typo?
)

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Right now Hubbell & Donohue are on top of the standings.

MissIzzy said:

Right now Hubbell & Donohue are on top of the standings.

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Oh, sorry -- I see now that you were referring to the obviously meaningless ISU standings ... meaningless in the sense that Hubbell/Donohue are the only couple to have completed two GPs this season.

I thought your OP was referring to the team at the top of your own analysis.

The problem is there are only 6 GPF spots and 7 "big" teams:
D/W, V/W, B/S, P/B, C/L, W/P and I/K
so one of these teams is gonna be out of the final. And being out of the final may be a huge disadvantage going into Sochi, if you ask me.

So we all know D/W and V/M have it sealed.

for the rest of them:
P/B's worst case scenario: silver + bronze
B/S's worst case scenario: silver + silver
W/P's worst case scenario: silver + silver
I/K's worst case scenario: bronze + bronze
C/L's worst case scenario: silver + bronze

so, from the above it seems B/S and W/P have the best shot and I/K the worst. Theoretically (of course I do realize one team's worst case scenario turns into another one's best case scenario and so on, but it does help you clarify your thoughts a bit). The truth is, due to their low placement at Worlds, I/K have it the hardest and it's them I see missing out on the GPF.

Honestly, I don't see anyone else make it. Only those 7 teams are in the running.

I would include Chock & Bates amongst the big teams. They are definitely contenders, atleast as much as I/K are this year IMO. I wouldnt be surprised if they sprung a mini surprise this weekend, and won atleast silver, especialy as neither P/B or B/S look impressive.

pangtongfan said:

I would include Chock & Bates amongst the big teams. They are definitely contenders, atleast as much as I/K are this year IMO. I wouldnt be surprised if they sprung a mini surprise this weekend, and won atleast silver, especialy as neither P/B or B/S look impressive.

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Are I/K looking impressive? I haven't seen any videos nor heard any reports of their skating so far this season, whether competition or training. I'd keep Chock/Bates in the mix also. We'll have a better idea after seeing P/B, B/S, and I/K in at least their first GP.

I&K have a pretty good FD to Swan Lake this year, and some improved lifts. They still skate very far apart with a lot of hand in hand skating even during step sequences.

Here it is
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpAaZmH9wMQ

All I have of their this season's SD is a practice video. It's hard to tell much, except that it contains a Finnstep
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJXnKqZo5Jo