Are Lipnitskaya & Pogorilaya now the favourites to make the Russian Olympic team?

dorispulaski · Nov 2, 2013

Anna has medalled at nearly every international event (if not every one-I could have missed some Senior B or other) that she has attended since she was a late addition to last year's Russian junior team.

Last year:
3rd Zagreb JGP (Her 2 JGPs were one week apart)
1st Chemnitz JGP
3rd JGPF
3rd World Juniors
This year:
1st CoC

In the midst of all that, she went through her growth spurt and still managed to keep her jumps.

She has a relatively weak field at TEB, and it's entirely possible she will make the GPF.

If she makes the GPF, I would not be at all surprised to see her PCS rise, particularly if she doesn't finish dead last there.

That's been the way PCS has worked in the past.

gmyers · Nov 2, 2013

Look at the jump content from kostner and it's mind boggling sotnikova lost to her in the fs! Sotnikova messed up both flips, had no three jump combo because for some bizarre reason the 3 jump combo is after a flip, and didn't Do a 3/3 and had really low levels. She was beyond bad in her fs and was rescued by her sp. Russian nationals will be filled with eligible girls with great content in their fs. Because Adelina just has the worst fs deisgn of any current skater I wouldn't be surprised if she placed third at euros of Russians there. Her best hope involves lizas sp problems and judges/fed not giving pogorilaya the scores. The self inflicted wounds by sotnikova are so disturbing! How can a skater not stop doing Something That costs her over and over and over? She should have won coc easy but her fs had 2 flips! If her coaches won't change That she needs to take charge and when she does a fs do other jumps! Unless she's committed to the two flips and failure herself!

dorispulaski · Nov 2, 2013

Yes, almost anything would be better than 2 flips, and particularly hanging the 3 jump combo on one of them :bang:

flying camel · Nov 2, 2013

I think Anna is third best right now. I have Liza second. I think Liza looks more mature on the ice then Anna. Anna still looks like a junior. But if Liza can't get her SP together she will lose her spot for sure. But the future looks bright for Russia on the ladies side.

drivingmissdaisy · Nov 2, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
"potential" to score higher is not good enough. last time she had close to a clean LP? that was 3 years ago as a junior !

You have to take into account scoring potential when selecting a team. If Pogorilaya skates perfect both programs and scores 180 she has 0% chance of a medal. If Tuk or Adelina has even a 1% chance of medal they should be on the team ahead of Anna.

Jammers · Nov 2, 2013

Let's face it this was the weakest GP in terms of competition for the Ladies event. Anna would have been off the podium at SC for instance. But it's going to be brutal for those 2 spots for the Russian girls.

Mathman · Nov 2, 2013

drivingmissdaisy said:
You have to take into account scoring potential when selecting a team. If Pogorilaya skates perfect both programs and scores 180 she has 0% chance of a medal. If Tuk or Adelina has even a 1% chance of medal they should be on the team ahead of Anna.

I tend to look at it differently. I think the person should go who earns the spot, with a smaller emphasis on national federations demonstrating their acumen in "selecting" a team. Best would be a "self-selection" model where the skaters skate for the prize.

drivingmissdaisy · Nov 2, 2013

Mathman said:
I tend to look at it differently. I think the person should go who earns the spot, with a smaller emphasis on national federations demonstrating their acumen in "selecting" a team. Best would be a "self-selection" model where the skaters skate for the prize.

In theory that works, but everywhere the federations do what they want. Agnes's SP score and Ashley's LP score at Nationals last year make it pretty clear that, although they want to give the impression that placements are earned, the USFSA places the top skaters exactly where they want to. Judging panels can use not only PCS but also < and << as needed to prop up or drop down skaters.

Mathman · Nov 2, 2013

drivingmissdaisy said:
In theory that works, but everywhere the federations do what they want. Agnes's SP score and Ashley's LP score at Nationals last year make it pretty clear that, although they want to give the impression that placements are earned, the USFSA places the top skaters exactly where they want to. Judging panels can use not only PCS but also < and << as needed to prop up or drop down skaters.

I have always wondered about how the mechanics of that are carried out. Do the federation big-wigs call in the judges and tech specialists beforehand and tell them, "This is how we want it to turn out -- make it happen?" Or are the judges in on it from the beginning? Or is there just a kind of spirit in the air so that the tech specialists subconsciously know when they are supposed to toss out a << and the judges know when to hike up someone's PCS?

Not saying it doesn't happen. But I would think that the judges and officials would make a point of standing on their own independence and integrity.

Selene · Nov 2, 2013

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
That headcase has a GP silver and a SP win. Tuktamysheva couldn't even beat Radionova, make the podium, and was 9th in the Skate America SP, and likely won't make the GPF. At least Sotnikova positions herself well after the SP, whereas Tukt always plays catchup. For Liza, its over before the FS even begins... and that's whi you think is a better choice for Sochi? And how many times has Liza scored this so-called weapon of a 130+ FS?

Adelina won a silver at COC because the field was unbelievably bad and the worst I have ever seen at a Grand Prix. None of the girls who made the podium at COC would have even won bronze at Skate America or Skate Canada.

I prefer Elizaveta to Adelina. I think Elizaveta's problems are mental. She has some sort of mental block about the SP, because there is no reason for her to do as poorly as she does, given her fabulous long programs and flawless jump technique. On the other hand, Adelina's problems are due to poor jump technique. Her technique on her flutz, flip and axel is awful. She's never going to be able to get through a long program with her flawed jump technique, whereas Liza has the potential to skate better short programs if she gets over her mental block.

Ziggy · Nov 2, 2013

Lipnitskaia and Pogorilaya definitely should make the Olympic team.

They are the only two Russian skaters capable of landing their jumps consistently. Not just this season but in the past also. And it's not like Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva have anything else going for them. Their programs are terrible, their basics are better than Pogorilaya's but not by a huge margin. I just don't see any reason to hold up Sot and Tuk at Russian Nationals with inflated marks and I hope that it's not going to happen.

Mrs. P · Nov 2, 2013

Sorry to be a bit sentimental, but it's sort of sad to hear that we're now talking about both Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva being off the Olympic team when just a few years ago they were supposed to be leading the future of ladies figure skating in Russia.

I am very impressed with both Lipnitskaya and Pogorilaya this season though. Russian Nationals is going to be heartbreaking.

sky_fly20 · Nov 2, 2013

Ziggy said:
Lipnitskaia and Pogorilaya definitely should make the Olympic team.

They are the only two Russian skaters capable of landing their jumps consistently. Not just this season but in the past also. And it's not like Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva have anything else going for them. Their programs are terrible, their basics are better than Pogorilaya's but not by a huge margin. I just don't see any reason to hold up Sot and Tuk at Russian Nationals with inflated marks and I hope that it's not going to happen.

Pogorilaya making the Team is probably just 5%
her max score potential is just 180+, that's not good enough and her PCS is poor

I'm sure they weigh also who can score the highest
Tuk's PB is 188+ and Sotnikova is 193+, I still think one of them will get the remaining, for me , preferably not the latter mentioned

Ziggy · Nov 2, 2013

Yes, if Sot and Tuk landed all of their jumps they would probably score higher than Pogorilaya and possibly even Lipnitskaia as well. But that is not going to happen, hence it isn't very relevant.

Pogorilaya is putting much more effort into selling her programs than Sot and Tuk and she has improved her presentation since last season whilst maintaining her jump consistency. She is also post-pubescent, with visible hips and quite long limbs. She is the future and she should be the skater that the Russian Fed push now.

Blades of Passion · Nov 2, 2013

Pogorilaya absolutely should not make the team. Sotnikova and Tuk can do much better. They still have plenty of time to get it together and fight for a spot on the team with Lipnitskaya.

prettykeys · Nov 2, 2013

Blades of Passion said:
Sotnikova and Tuk can do much better. They still have plenty of time to get it together and fight for a spot on the team with Lipnitskaya.

This is how I feel. Pogorilaya is a bit boring to me and her skating basics are, as others have pointed out, not as good as Sotnikova's or Tuktmaysheva's.

So Julia + (Liza or Adelina) is what I am hoping for.

sky_fly20 · Nov 2, 2013

Ziggy said:
Yes, if Sot and Tuk landed all of their jumps they would probably score higher than Pogorilaya and possibly even Lipnitskaia as well. But that is not going to happen, hence it isn't very relevant.

Pogorilaya is putting much more effort into selling her programs than Sot and Tuk and she has improved her presentation since last season whilst maintaining her jump consistency. She is also post-pubescent, with visible hips and quite long limbs. She is the future and she should be the skater that the Russian Fed push now.

her PCS especially her component marks wont be of help
her skating skills is visibly poorer if you put her with Sotnikova's SS even in presentation
unless she consistently starts hitting 187+ marks she wont be making the team

elif · Nov 2, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
Pogorilaya making the Team is probably just 5%
her max score potential is just 180+, that's not good enough and her PCS is poor

I'm sure they weigh also who can score the highest
Tuk's PB is 188+ and Sotnikova is 193+, I still think one of them will get the remaining, for me , preferably not the latter mentioned

She can get 190+ too. She should get same or higher PCS than Tuktamisheva. This time judges didn't really have a chance. First she is in the first group for short and later nobody expected Kostner and Adelina skate that bad. Everbody think she is fighting for bronze. She and Murakami got almost same PCS at the free. In the short program Murakami's PCS, 3 point higher than her. 3 point. If she can skate clean her PCS will rise even more.

sky_fly20 · Nov 2, 2013

elif said:
She can get 190+ too. She should get same or higher PCS than Tuktamisheva. This time judges didn't really have a chance. First she is in the first group for short and later nobody expected Kostner and Adelina skate that bad. Everbody think she is fighting for bronze. She and Murakami got almost same PCS at the free. In the short program Murakami's PCS, 3 point higher than her. 3 point. If she can skate clean her PCS will rise even more.

not hapenning about scoring a 190+

, look at her basics , poor speed and skating skills
max PCS for Pogorilaya in SP is probably just 27 and LP 58

comparae to typical components for
Adelina's PCS 30, 62+
Julia PCS 29, 60+
Tuk PCS 28, 59+

elif · Nov 2, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
not hapenning about scoring a 190+ , look at her basics , poor speed and skating skills
max PCS for Pogorilaya in SP is probably just 27 and LP 58

comparae to typical components for
Adelina's PCS 30, 63+
Julia PCS 29, 60+
Tuk PCS 28, 59+

Radionova's scores 29 and 59 too. :eek:

Tuktamisheva only skating half of the ring. Sotnikova certainly better but not selling her programs at all. Worst Carmen ever probably.

Tuktamisheva didn't land a 3lutz+3toe this season. She don't have high GOE spins. Can't skate a short program without mistakes. Adelina can't do a 3 flip while Anna repeating 3lutz and 3loop with good GOE. They have PCS advantage but so many weaknesses. She can make the Olympic team.

Are Lipnitskaya & Pogorilaya now the favourites to make the Russian Olympic team?

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl

gmyers

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl

flying camel

drivingmissdaisy

Jammers

Mathman

drivingmissdaisy

Mathman

Selene

Ziggy

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

sky_fly20

Match Penalty

Ziggy

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be

prettykeys

sky_fly20

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elif

sky_fly20

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elif

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