Mao Asada: Olympic Gold Medal Favourite? | Page 8 | Golden Skate

Mao Asada: Olympic Gold Medal Favourite?

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
Based on her debut I would say Kim already shows she is the OGM favorite as most neutral observers believed all along. Her scores would have won the Grand Prix final even though she is still incredbly rusty and did a relatively poor LP, and she is still getting much higher PCS from the judges, even for imperfect skates, than Mao.

She got 35 in the SP and over 71 in the LP for PCS. She got more than Mao despite Mao skating in JAPAN.

Clearly she's no longer #1 favorite in the judges eyes. /sarcasm
 

minze

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
We Yuna ubers are burying our heads in the sand by denying the FABULOUS win by Mao Asada at the GPF. Didn't you see her free program and saw how well she did compared to Yuna? As Mao88 said, her Olympic chances are clearly doomed. All hail Empress Mao! ;)

this post is beneath you
 

minze

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
She got 35 in the SP and over 71 in the LP for PCS. She got more than Mao despite Mao skating in JAPAN.

Clearly she's no longer #1 favorite in the judges eyes. /sarcasm

See which one is it? scores at B events are not important or Mao was over scored at Japan. Neither side has to make excuses for their favorite skaters

Yuna Kim did faboulous for her first outing
Mao Chan won her 4th GP final with an amazing SP and a good LP. Not everything has to be a fan war
 

Li'Kitsu

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
Mao88 said:
What was that you Kim Ubers were saying about Kim and consistency?

Probably the worst choreographed long program Kim has had in her entire career. Does not bode well for her Olympic chances

Another fabulous win today for Mao in the GPF. Olympic favourite - Mao

I wouldn't call Maos win fabulous at all. On the other hand, I wouldn't say this outing from Yuna cements her status as the clear favorite. Yuna definitly still is the favorite, but that's because I'm sure she'll do better at the Olympics, not because of her skates here. For saying she had trouble with her stamina though, I think she'll managed the LP really well.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
See which one is it? scores at B events are not important or Mao was over scored at Japan. Neither side has to make excuses for their favorite skaters

Yuna Kim did faboulous for her first outing
Mao Chan won her 4th GP final with an amazing SP and a good LP. Not everything has to be a fan war

They both have some positive inflation factor: Yuna being the sole star in a B-event and Mao skating in Japan. I can't see which one is the bigger inflation, but clearly to me neither one is a heavy favorite over the other at this point, unlike what Mao88 claimed. I'd say Yuna is the favorite (not heavy), if only because she has a history of delivering when it counts the most, even though Mao has boosted her momentum quite a bit early in the season.
 

minze

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
I wouldn't call Maos win fabulous at all. On the other hand, I wouldn't say this outing from Yuna cements her status as the clear favorite. Yuna definitly still is the favorite, but that's because I'm sure she'll do better at the Olympics, not because of her skates here. For saying she had trouble with her stamina though, I think she'll managed the LP really well.

I disagree. I think her win is fabulous because she did not let the mistakes kill her LP. Mao has demonstrated consistency this season. Not yet perfect, but she is selling her very good programs. The double standard of this forum is weird to me, if someone else had Mao's performance some people will be calling it a strong performance.
 

minze

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
They both have some positive inflation factor: Yuna being the sole star in a B-event and Mao skating in Japan. I can't see which one is the bigger inflation, but clearly to me neither one is a heavy favorite over the other at this point, unlike what Mao88 claimed. I'd say Yuna is the favorite (not heavy), if only because she has a history of delivering when it counts the most, even though Mao has boosted her momentum quite a bit early in the season.

And as a huge Mao fan I can admit Yuna Kim is still the favorite because, we know she can do her current layout clean. However, considering where Mao was during this time at last Olympics, I will say she is doing very well.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
I disagree. I think her win is fabulous because she did not let the mistakes kill her LP. Mao has demonstrated consistency this season. Not yet perfect, but she is selling her very good programs. The double standard of this forum is weird to me, if someone else had Mao's performance some people will be calling it a strong performance.

Who would that be? Just read her fan forum: http://yunaforum.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=4884&st=760

The comments tend to: over all good, not bad, she seemed tense, she didn't seem to enjoy herself, etc.

Hardly unadulterated praises of a "strong" performance.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I wouldn't call Maos win fabulous at all. On the other hand, I wouldn't say this outing from Yuna cements her status as the clear favorite. Yuna definitly still is the favorite, but that's because I'm sure she'll do better at the Olympics, not because of her skates here. For saying she had trouble with her stamina though, I think she'll managed the LP really well.

At this point I would say 60% Kim, 35% Mao, and 5% everyone else combined as to who will win in Sochi. Mao does have a real shot and more of one than anyone would have called before the season. There were many before the season who gave Kostner as much or more chance of the gold than Mao.

Maybe i am underestimating Russian ice though and the chances a clean and insprired Russian could have vs a flawed Kim or Mao at the Games, but then again I am not confident in Sotnikova doing a perfect competition, and Julia's scoring potential is not neccessarily enough to even beat a flawed Kim or Mao.
 

Li'Kitsu

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
Minze2001 said:
I disagree. I think her win is fabulous because she did not let the mistakes kill her LP. Mao has demonstrated consistency this season. Not yet perfect, but she is selling her very good programs. The double standard of this forum is weird to me, if someone else had Mao's performance some people will be calling it a strong performance.

She did really well, and I liked the performance. Why is it double standard if I just think it wasn't fabulous? Fabulous is something completly else than good or even strong. It's a lot more than that.
 

hurrah

Medalist
Joined
Aug 8, 2009
I think Mao's the favorite. :) If Yuna is not planning to compete until Sochi, mentally, I don't think she'll be ready, particularly as it's going to be held in Russia, and it will be quite a tough environment to compete in if it's not your home country or you're not a regular visitor at least. Food, toilets, water, etc., the strangeness of it will be difficult to manage. Yuna was quite lucky to have had a Canadian coach in Vancouver.
 

parma

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
The mark Kim received today was so b/c she made a mistake in jumps that she almost never misses. This implies that the score she received today is closer to the lower bound of the range of potential scores she would get. As for Asada, there is not much room to improve over the score she got in GPF or even over her season's best. Yet the two scores are very similar.
 

minze

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
She did really well, and I liked the performance. Why is it double standard if I just think it wasn't fabulous? Fabulous is something completly else than good or even strong. It's a lot more than that.

I meant double standard in general it wasn't directed personally at you. At was commenting in the forum overall.
 

minze

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
At this point I would say 60% Kim, 35% Mao, and 5% everyone else combined as to who will win in Sochi. Mao does have a real shot and more of one than anyone would have called before the season. There were many before the season who gave Kostner as much or more chance of the gold than Mao.
Maybe i am underestimating Russian ice though and the chances a clean and insprired Russian could have vs a flawed Kim or Mao at the Games, but then again I am not confident in Sotnikova doing a perfect competition, and Julia's scoring potential is not neccessarily enough to even beat a flawed Kim or Mao.

Kostner has a higher chance than 5%. when she is good she is really good
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
As someone said on another thread who is the favorite in a true sense is determined by bookies. We will see what odds bookies make for all the events but I am pretty sure Chan, Volosozhar & Trankov, Kim, and Davis & White will be made the favorites by the bookies. I also think the order of favortism will be V&T, Kim, Chan, and Davis & White in that order (although Chan might have lower odds to win than D&W but they will be further ahead of 2nd best person in the odds than D&W as only D&W or V&M will be given something lower than 30-1 to win gold in dance).
 

minze

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
The mark Kim received today was so b/c she made a mistake in jumps that she almost never misses. This implies that the score she received today is closer to the lower bound of the range of potential scores she would get. As for Asada, there is not much room to improve over the score she got in GPF or even over her season's best. Yet the two scores are very similar.

Why there is no room to improve. She scored 136 with an imperfect performance, so everyone has room to improve.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Kostner has a higher chance than 5%. when she is good she is really good

No she does not. She has never done a competition in her life that would beat almost all the competitions Mao has done this year, or that a very rusty Kim did in Zagreb, and her career PB scores prove this. There is nothing this season that indicates her being in gold medal contention at all.

When Kostner is good is still with only 5 triples max successful in a LP, and lower technical difficulty than Mao and Kim to begin with.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
At this point I would say 60% Kim, 35% Mao, and 5% everyone else combined as to who will win in Sochi. Mao does have a real shot and more of one than anyone would have called before the season. There were many before the season who gave Kostner as much or more chance of the gold than Mao.

Even 5% is generous I think. Mao has deserved the wins she has earned this season, but I think her margin of victory is too big for what she puts out there. Given that she can score 200+ with errors in both programs and very little GOE on the jumps, it is going to be nearly impossible for anyone besides Yuna to touch her.
 
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