Reworking Ashley Wagner's Olympic Season LP into a great program, podium material

As an aside, you are one of my favourite posters, Blades of Passion. :thumbsup: So I appreciate reading the critique of Ashley's program and how it may be improved. I look forward to your analysis of Yu-Na's programs in about 10 days time

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

I'm not saying she's incapable of two sequences... I'm saying it makes no sense to have two 2A sequences, especially when doing a 2L on the end of the 3L would garner more points and be safer/easier to execute. You can't tell me that putting a 2L on the end of a 3L is out of her ability and that a 3L-2A sequence is expending less energy.

Has there ever been a program executed by a woman with 5 triples and 2 double axels executed in the second half (let alone in 1 1/2 minutes) or anything even close to that?

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My comment wasn't really directed at you, just a comment. Although I'd definitely say a skater's preference is a powerful thing indeed, if you even feel just little bit more comfortable and less shaky with combination x over combination y, do x even if it's worth a little bit less points! Another thing to consider is, if trying 3L-2L, that 3L has to go pretty well other wise no combo as getting a loop off a messy jump is near impossible. Another thing to consider is if she messes up the 3L a little, she still has the step into the 2A to steady herself and get a decent 2A out, if the 2A is nice the judges won't deduct much and you won't get the dreaded +SEQ. The +2A sequence just seems like a much more secure idea for her right now rather than the tricky business of adding a 2L to a 3L in the second half when you're legs are shaky as it is.

I still question the idea of 3F-2L-2l though....

If you look at Ashley's 3L, she can easily do a 2L. But even a 3L-2T nets just 0.3 less than a 3L-2A sequence. A 3T-2A sequence has only 0.57 extra value. That is not worth the risk of a double axel. I'm 99% certain Ashley would NOT be able to execute the content you've suggested and certainly not capable of 5 triples and 2 double axels in less than a minute and a half.

Like I said, feel free to provide an example of any female skater who has ever executed that kind of jump content in such a short window in a free skate. And no, Julia's 5 second-half passes are not comparable as they are 4 triples and 1 double axel.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

If you look at Ashley's 3L, she can easily do a 2L. But even a 3L-2T nets just 0.3 less than a 3L-2A sequence. A 3T-2A sequence has only 0.57 extra value. That is not worth the risk of a double axel. I'm 99% certain Ashley would NOT be able to execute the content you've suggested and certainly not capable of 5 triples and 2 double axels in less than a minute and a half.

Like I said, feel free to provide an example of any female skater who has ever executed that kind of jump content in such a short window in a free skate. And no, Julia's 5 second-half passes are not comparable as they are 4 triples and 1 double axel.

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Did you see how Ashley looked at the end of her 2012 TEB and Skate America Free Skates having dumbed down her content? She looked like she could have done another program right there and then, she definitely has the drive and stamina to do it if she's conserving her energy through easier tech content. But seriously having seen how Ashley jumps, it's clear doing a 2A off her jumps is easier for her than a 2L, higher chance of +GOE too.

And at the GPF and US nationals? Her sequence failed her there.

Note that at Ashley's GP events this year, she has messed up her final jumping pass(es). So I fail to see how she would benefit from *adding* another jumping pass to the second half, let alone a triple-2A sequence. It can't be more obvious that she's reached the peak of how ambitious her 2nd half can be, if she's making errors with less content than what BoP has suggested.

A good choreographer also acknowledges the limitations of a skater, something which BoP has failed to do IMO.

zamboni step said:

I still question the idea of 3F-2L-2L though....

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Gurl Got Dis

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

And at the GPF and US nationals? Her sequence failed her there.

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Her sequence didn't fail at Nationals, the Triple Loop itself failed. Therefore, any combination would have failed. What's your point? As for the GPF, it was a total freak accident. That's the only time she ever failed on a 2Axel in sequence. She has done these a LOT over the years.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

And at the GPF and US nationals? Her sequence failed her there.

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The fall at the GPF was a freak fall, it could happen to anyone, and then the one at Nationals was probably due to her remembering what happened last time, I know I'd be scared if the last time I did that in competition I really hurt myself.

Note that at Ashley's GP events this year, she has messed up her final jumping pass(es). So I fail to see how she would benefit from *adding* another jumping pass to the second half, let alone a triple-2A sequence. It can't be more obvious that she's reached the peak of how ambitious her 2nd half can be, if she's making errors with less content than what BoP has suggested.

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But by removing the 3-3 which is probably exhausting, and if she has to work on the 3-3 less she can work on improving stamina and maintaining power. I mean last season for the GP she was probably told to go clean and powerful, and she powered through the whole thing like it was nothing, mainly because of the 2A-2T rather than the tiring 2A-3T. It may sound like I'm oversimplifying it but I think having less of a crucial element like the 3-3 and a more spread out value will make her slightly more calm when she skates.

Please explain how if in her first two GP events she makes errors in her final jumping pass(es) somehow adding a triple-2A will be more successful. And I don't buy that doing a 3F-2L-2L instead of a 3F-3T saves her enough energy to add a triple and a double axel in her second half.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Please explain how if in her first two GP events she makes errors in her final jumping pass(es) somehow adding a triple-2A will be more successful. And I don't buy that doing a 3F-2L-2L instead of a 3F-3T saves her enough energy to add a triple and a double axel in her second half.

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Actually I disagree with the 3F-2L-2L and think she should just do 3F-2T-2L. Anyway like I said, not only would she be using up less energy in the first half, but she'd also be able to spend less time working on her 3-3 and more time on stamina training, teaching her muscle memory how to pull of the jumps when she has very little energy left. If anyone has the drive to land that final stretch of jumps, it's Ashley. Keep in mind we're talking about Ashley Wagner the figure skater not this Ashley Wagner who works (and by the look of her lives off of) Taco Bell.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

I'm 99% certain Ashley would NOT be able to execute the content you've suggested and certainly not capable of 5 triples and 2 double axels in less than a minute and a half.

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And I'm 99% certain you're wrong. Especially since 100% of everything you've said in this thread has been incorrect. You said twice in this thread that "Ashley would be incapable of doing two 2Axel sequences" -- that's what she did the entire 2009-2010 season in the later part of her Long Program.

You also STILL haven't given any valid argument ("I don't buy it" does not constitute reasoning) about why you don't think Ashley could do the content, when the ONLY change from her current plan in the second half of the program would be adding 3Toe-2Axel sequence (not that difficult of an element for her), replacing the current Layback spin. And remember, she wouldn't be doing a 3-jump combo in the second half of the program, as she currently plans, AND she wouldn't be doing a 3-3 combo in the first half of the program, which drains her out more heading into the second half than my planned program does. You ignore science and you ignore what Ashley herself has already achieved. I'm not sure why.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Like I said, feel free to provide an example of any female skater who has ever executed that kind of jump content in such a short window in a free skate.

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I am forward-thinking and won't be boxed in by your arbitrary constraints. Ashley would be the first to do it, but it's not some kind of impossible achievement. Ashley herself has already done 4 Triples and 2 Double Axels in a short window of time in the second half of Long Programs. How backbreaking is it to add in one Triple Toe jump pass. The EASIEST Triple. I find it incredibly disingenuous the way you just entirely disregard Ashley's abilities.

It's also annoying to still be talking solely about the technical value of said content, when the program as a whole was the purpose of the thread.

Blades of Passion said:

You said twice in this thread that "Ashley would be incapable of doing two 2Axel sequences" -- that's what she did the entire 2009-2010 season in the later part of her Long Program.

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That is completely false.

http://www.isuresults.com/results/gprus09/gprus09_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf (only 1 double axel sequence)
http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpjpn09/gpjpn09_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf (2 double axel sequences, both with errors on the 2A)

In the 2009-2010 season (and ever, if I'm not mistaken), only at US nationals did she ever cleanly land both jumps in both sequences.

This season she has yet to cleanly execute 4 triples and a 2A in the second half, and now you want her to do 5 triples and 2 double axels?!

Also, funny how you say I'm disregarding her abilities when you are asking her to abandon her 3F-3T, in favour of a sequence she hasn't even tried before (I mean, when was the last time she did a solo 3T or 3T-combo?). It is painfully obvious she needs to have a XX-3X attempt to compete for bronze, and the 3F-3T has given her moderate success this season. Of course, if sequences weren't 80% value then you might have a legit reason to include two of them, but under current IJS rules it doesn't make sense.

Not to mention the jump layout I proposed is much more balanced, gets more BV than yours, is easier to execute but still ambitious, and is in line with her current program layout and not overhaul it.

Blades of Passion said:

Gurl Got Dis
.

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So, because she does a 3F-2L-2L in this performance, "Gurl Got Dis". But moments before when she does a clean 3L-2L at 2:35, you disregard that and think a 3L-2L is risky/difficult for her. FYI, she also landed 3L-2L just fine at TEB and Skate Canada too (both times getting better GOE than her 3F combo).

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

In the 2009-2010 season (and ever, if I'm not mistaken), only at US nationals did she ever cleanly land both jumps in both sequences.

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She definitely did clean 2Axels in sequence at the GPF that season. I guess she didn't at NHK, my mistake, but whatever. She clearly become very comfortable with it after that first try where there were small issues.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

So, because she does a 3F-2L-2L in this performance, "Gurl Got Dis". But moments before when she does a clean 3L-2L at 2:35, you disregard that and think a 3L-2L is risky/difficult for her.

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Not just that performance. She consistently did 3F-2L-2L for two seasons in a row, in the second half of her programs. If she legitimately trained the move at the top of her program these days, I'm quite sure it would be a reliable element for her and get at least +1 GOE. This is something she hasn't been pushed to do by her coaches and I feel it's a mistake.

As for the 3L-2L, it's 0 GOE quality. Have you even been reading the points made in this thread? Her 3Lo-2A gets more GOE, making it worth considerably more points. It covers more ice, has more pop, and has more flow. This helps to increase the excitement and visual appeal of the performance, improving her PCS. Additionally, having two 2Axel sequences helps to ensure she gets full points for all of her jumping passes even if she makes a mistake. For example, if she were to accidentally step out of her 3T at the end of the program and not be able to do the sequence, she would still get credit for the Triple since she fulfilled her axel requirement for the program earlier with the 3Loop.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Not to mention the jump layout I proposed is much more balanced, gets more BV than yours, is easier to execute but still ambitious, and is in line with her current program layout and not overhaul it.

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None of these things are true. You proposed 2A+3T combo (as the third jump pass) and 3Lo+2Lo+2Lo combo (in the second half). She clearly isn't able to do those things well; it wouldn't at all be easier to execute for her. She can't get the BV for it, much less the GOE, because she's extremely prone to underrotate the 3T as a backend combo and do some kind of mistake on that extended 3loop combo. It's not in line with her current program in terms of muscle memory; how do you expect she'd suddenly be able to do that 2A+3T? My proposed layout has her Triples all in the exact same spots (give or take a second) as her current layout. As I've said 100 times now, the only real difference would be doing 3Toe+2Axel sequence instead of doing a Layback spin. She does 3Toe all the time in exhibitions and she always did it consistently in competition when it was slotted in.

Furthermore, you're ignoring the musical changes of the program. That final 3Toe+2Axel is there to synergize with the ever-forward momentum of the "Dance of the Knights" music, which transitions into the piercing musical selection heard in the current program. A spin doesn't work as well there. The one-two punch of this jump sequence gives energetic closure to that entire section of the program and keeps the momentum constantly flowing into the choreographic step sequence.

Blades of Passion said:

Gurl Got Dis

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Oh I have no doubt that "Gurl got dis" . My lack of faith is in the tech panel and judges who don't like 3-2L-2L combinations, if they don't give one of the 2L a phantom UR call, they give it next to no GOE, Murakami is a good example of someone who also has a good 3-2L-2L but still gets treated by the judges like she's URing and landing it poorly.

Ashley should have stayed with Hughes. BOP, have you heard from team Wagner about your suggestions?

Blades of Passion said:

As for the 3L-2L, it's 0 GOE quality.

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Her 3F-2L-2L isn't much better. During the 2007-2008 season, internationally, Ashley received the following GOE for her flip combo:

Skate Canada (-0.80)
TEB (-1.00 ... and she wasn't able to do the 3rd jump)
4CC (+0.29)

Note that in 2008, she had problems with the axel sequence at both her GP events and Junior Worlds. It gave her issues both times she tried it at NHK 2009. Historically, when she's tried two 2A sequences she has not successfully executed both of them way more than she has. Not to mention, asking her to do 2 sequences because she did them years ago is like expecting Mao to be able to do 3-3's again.

It has also been ages since she's done 3T as a solo jump or as the start of a combo/sequence, so how do you even know she's able to? And "it's the easiest triple" isn't a good reason -- Mao has troubles with her 3S and it's easier than a loop or flip, which she's more consistent with.

Icey said:

Ashley should have stayed with Hughes. BOP, have you heard from team Wagner about your suggestions?

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And what? Earned a few more National bronze medals?

zamboni step said:

And what? Earned a few more National bronze medals?

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Of course not, she would have advanced under her , not stayed stagnant.

Icey said:

Of course not, she would have advanced under her , not stayed stagnant.

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The fact she was allowed to keep doing 3Lz in the short program alone showed that Hughes wasn't good enough at CoP milking to make her as successful as she is now. I admit her Once Upon a Time in America SP was along with Black Swan my favourite program from her. But she wasn't advancing that much under her.

What a strange thread. And I'm a die-hard Ashley Wagner fan and usually enjoy any discussion about my favourite skater. But why on earth would you want to change the jump lay-out? The 3-3 is actually in pretty good shape, considering it's still early in the season and it was non-existent in Ashley's programs in the past (since 2008 Nats and a rare occurance at 2012 4CC). Her jump lay-out seems fine to me.
The choreography and interpretation of R&J was already much improved at TEB as compared to SA so the best Team Wagner can do is keep working on it, adding more movements and transitions to it. I also miss 'Dance of the Knights' but they made a decision not to skate to music that was typically used in skating - whether or not that was a smart move, that's their take on this program, I doubt it'll change. Her spins need to be faster and add a little more flow and passion to the LP and I think it'll be fine.

Her SP this year is pretty awesome. The more I see it, the more I like it.

As to staying with Hughes? Have you ever watched back to back performances of Ashley under Hughes & Hill (LP Worlds 2008 and SP 2008 COC) - she looks like a completely different skater; so much more graceful, mature, natural flow in the choreography. Hill was a good move at the time. But Ashley lost her 'edge' under Hill after 2010 Nationals. Watch 2011 Nats & 2012 Nats back to back and again - wow!

Team Wagner is fine. The question is, does the US have enough political pull to prevent the judges from dropping Ashley if little Lipnitskaia skates well in front of a home crowd? There's the rub, I think. Looks like Ashley will have to aim for silver to even get the bronze at the Olympics. Either way, she will have to be perfect at the Olympics, but that was always a given. Those are the stakes; the question now is all about who will rise up to the challenge.