So now that the Grand Prix series is over, time to look back and give lots of data and analysis.
Score tracker (Top 5 in each category gets points: 15/13/11/9/7; See breakdown of scores below)
Jason: 127
Adam: 115
Jeremy: 77
Max: 55
Richard: 18
Average competition score (includes Senior B appearances)
Adam Rippon: 237.48 (Skate America, NHK Trophy)
Jason Brown: 234.18 (Nebelhorn, Skate America, Trophee Eric Bompard)
Max Aaron: 233.64 (U.S. International Classic, Skate America, NHK Trophy)
Jeremy Abbott: 226.68 (Skate Canada, NHK Trophy)
Richard Dornbush: 213.58 (Finlandia Trophy, Cup of China, Rostelecom Cup)
Joshua Farris: 211.64 (U.S. International Classic, Skate Canada)
Ross Miner: 203.88 (Ondrej Nepala Trophy, Skate Canada)
Quad attempts during the GP: Success = No UR, no fall, no negative GOE below -1
Max Aaron: 4S (2/6); 4T (0/2)
Jeremy Abbott: 4T (1/3)
Adam Rippon: 4Z (0/2) 4T (0/2)
Joshua Farris: 4T (0/2)
Ross Miner: 4S (0/2)
Richard Dornbush: 4T (0/1); 4S (0/4)
GP Placements
Adam Rippon: 2nd (Skate America) + 4th (NHK Trophy)
Jason Brown: 3rd (Trophee Eric Bompard) + 5th (Skate America)
Jeremy Abbott: 3rd (NHK Trophy) + 6th (Skate Canada)
Max Aaron: 3rd (Skate America) + 7th ( NHK Trophy)
Richard Dornbush: 5th (Cup of China) + 5th (Rostelecom Cup)
Joshua Farris: 5th (Skate Canada)
Ross Miner: 9th (Skate Canada)
Comments
1.) Richard pulls a last minute appearance on the scoreboard with a respectable FS and racked up the third highest TES in the the FS for the GP series, taking away a few points from Jason, Adam and Jeremy. This shows that Richard can pull off decent results, but still a question mark.
2.) No men to the GP final, however Adam and Jason are second and third alternate, respectfully.
3.) U.S. men got some work to do on their quads. The stats show that Max is the only one who has hit multiple quads during the GP but even he is extremely inconsistent, which is odd given the consistency he hit them last season.
4.) Any dark horses outside the GP contestants? Going by senior B results and results so far at sectionals, not really. Tim Dolensky, who is currently leading at Eastern sectionals scored 70.21; Brandon Mroz, who is leading at Midwesterns with 70.76, attempted but UR-ed a 4T in the SP. Douglas Razzano is leading at Pacific Coast Sectionals with 66.84. Stephen Carriere, who was second at the U.S. Skating Classic is currently in 2nd at Eastern sectionals.
Questions
1.) Can Jason Brown get on the Olympic team (or even on the podium) without a quad? The strategy from Team Brown has been to get clean programs. He has been successful in the SP. The results have been a bit mixed in the FS. He has yet to successfully execute two 3As in his FS. Skate America was a bit dismal, though not a meltdown. But his relatively clean FS at TEB and its high score sans quad shows the judges like what they see. One thing to consider is that Jason has not had a clean FS at Nationals since his breakout FS in 2011. Of course it only takes one attempt to break a pattern.
2.) Can Max Aaron made a comeback? At the beginning of the season, many though Aaron’s spot on the Olympic team was all but secured given his respectable Worlds finish and what seemed to be consistency on the quad. That consistency has temporarily gone MIA during the GP. Also of concern is really low PCS (which apparently is a concern to Max, per the interview on Ice Network I'm watching right now). However, we know he can skate good programs with quads and he does have the highest FS score among all the men. I think we'll see a better Max at nationals.
3.) Can Adam win nationals? Although he’s behind Jason currently in overall score, he does have a better average score and had the highest placements in the GP. He jumps have improved greatly in the last year and his programs are lovely. He’s also close on the 4T, getting them ratified but with –GOE.
4.) What about Jeremy? Jeremy looked terrible earlier in the season but then went and made a major comeback at NHK, nearly matching his personal best, which is from when he won the GPF in 2008. Jeremy still gets some of the highest PCS, though Jason and Adam are both nipping at the heels at this point and past Nationals shows that it’s not enough if he does poorly on the TES side.
5.) And what about Joshua? He’s a huge question mark for me. I was sad to see him WD because he actually had a decent showing at Skate Canada in the FS (after a dismal SP) and I thought perhaps he could improve on his placement/score. Joshua had quite a bit of momentum being the junior world champ and getting the pewter at Nationals last year. He has a great 3A, but he seems to have struggled to get the 4T consistent.
Prediction
All bets are off at nationals, which is where the team will be determined. All this work I put in will be moot, so I’m not sure why I bothered to do all this work. I will go on a limb and say Max makes a comeback and makes the team with Adam Rippon. Jason gets on the podium and goes to 4CC. However, given my terrible score in the predictions game, you probably shouldn't listen to me.
****BREAK DOWN OF GP SCORES***
Total score
Jason Brown 243.09 (Trophee Eric Bompard)
Adam Rippon 241.24 (Skate America)
Max Aaron 238.36 (Skate America)
---------------------------------------
Jeremy Abbott 237.41 (NHK Trophy)
Adam Rippon 233.71 (NHK Trophy)
Jason Brown 231.03 (Skate America)
Max Aaron 223.35 (NHK Trophy)
Richard Dornbush 218.57 (Cup of China)
Joshua Farris 216.72 (Skate Canada)
Jeremy Abbott 215.95 (Skate Canada)
Richard Dornbush 215.45 (Rostelecom Cup)
Ross Miner 196.89 (Skate Canada)
Short Program
Jason Brown 84.77 (TEB)
Jason Brown 83.78 (SA)
Adam Rippon 82.25 (NHK)
---------------------------
Adam Rippon 80.26 (SA)
Jeremy Abbott: 78.78 (NHK)
Max Aaron: 76.21 (NHK)
Max Aaron 75.91 (SA)
Jeremy Abbott 74.58 (SC)
Richard Dornbush 72.58 (COC)
Joshua Farris 69.14 (SC)
Ross Miner 66.71 (SC)
Richard Dornbush 63.23 (COR)
Short Program TES
Jason Brown 45.98 (TEB)
Jason Brown 44.85 (SA)
Adam Rippon 44.80 (NHK)
---------------------------
Adam Rippon 43.23 (SA)
Max Aaron 41.37 (SA)
Max Aaron 40.65 (NHK)
Jeremy Abbott: 38.82 (NHK)
Richard Dornbush 36.47 (COC)
Jeremy Abbott 35.30 (SC)
Josh Farris 33.11 (SC)
Ross Miner 32.15 (SC)
Richard Dornbush: 27.82
Short Program PCS
Jeremy Abbott 39.96 (NHK)
Jeremy Abbott 39.28 (SC)
Jason Brown 38.93 (SA)
--------------------------
Jason Brown 38.79 (TEB)
Adam Rippon 37.85 (NHK)
Adam Rippon 37.03 (SA)
Richard Dornbush 36.92 (COR)
Ross Miner 36.56 (SC)
Richard Dornbush 36.11 (COC)
Max Aaron 36.56 (NHK)
Josh Farris 36.03 (SC)
Max Aaron 34.68 (SA)
Free Skate
Max Aaron: 162.45 (SA)
Adam Rippon: 160.98 (SA)
Jeremy Abbott 158.63 (NHK)
------------------------------
Jason Brown: 158.32 (TEB)
Richard Dornbush: 151.71 (COR)
Adam Rippon: 151.46
Joshua Farris: 147.58 (SC)
Jason Brown: 147.25 (SA)
Max Aaron: 147.14 (NHK)
Richard Dornbush: 145.99 (COC)
Jeremy Abbott: 141.37 (SC)
Ross Miner: 130.18 (SC)
Free Skate TES
Max Aaron: 90.47
Adam Rippon: 83.01
Richard Dornbush 79.85
------------------------
Jeremy Abbott: 78.25
Jason Brown: 78.20
Max Aaron: 78.20
Richard Dornbush 76.61
Joshua Farris: 74.80
Adam Rippon 73.60
Jason Brown: 68.69
Jeremy Abbott: 65.59
Ross Miner: 60.54
Free Skate PCS
Adam Rippon: 82.08 (SA)
Jeremy Abbott: 80.38 (NHK)
Jason Brown: 80.12 (TEB)
-----------------------
Jason Brown: 79.56 (SA)
Adam Rippon: 77.86 (NHK)
Jeremy Abbott: 77.78 (SC)
Joshua Farris: 73.78 (SC)
Richard Dornbush 72.86 (COR)
Max Aaron: 72.98 (SA)
Richard Dornbush 70.38 (COC)
Ross Miner: 69.64 (SC)
Max Aaron: 68.94 (COR)
**** U.S. SECTIONAL RESULTS******
Timothy Dolensky: 209.85 (E1)
Grant Hochstein: 209.29 (E2)
Stephen Carriere: 209.04 (E3)
Brandon Mroz: 194.68 (M1)
Douglas Razzano: 189.03 (P1)
Sean Rabbit: 184.05 (P2)
Philip Warren: 182.69 (P3)
Keegan Messing: 174.30 (P4)
Lukas Kaugars: 171.22 (M2)
Daniel Raad: 169.85 (E4)
Scott Dyer: 161.57 (M3)
Robert Przepioski: 138.31 (M4)
SP Scores (TES, PCS)
Brandon Mroz 70.76 (36.71, 34.05)
Timothy Dolensky 70.21 (39.06, 32.15 -1)
Stephen Carriere 69.27 (36.07, 33.20)
Grant Hochstein 68.82 (39.02, 30.80 -1)
Lukas Kaugars 66.85 (33.50, 33.35)
Douglas Razzano 66.84 (36.09, 31.75 -1)
Daniel Raad 61.25 (34.00, 27.25)
Philip Warren 60.66 (32.71, 28.95 -1)
Scott Dyer 58.52 (27.92, 30.60)
Sean Rabbitt, 58.01 (28.76, 29.25)
Keegan Messing, 55.93 (27.30; 29.63-1)
Robert Przepioski 47.49 (23.04, 25.45 -1)
FS Scores
Grant Hochstein 140.47 (73.67, 66.80)
Stephen Carriere 139.77 (70.57, 69.20)
Timothy Dolensky 139.64 (73.95, 66.70)
Sean Rabbitt 126.04 (66.04, 60.00)
Brandon Mroz 123.92 (59.02, 64.90)
Douglas Razzano 122.19 (61.81, 60.38)
Philip Warren 122.03 (66.39, 56.64)
Keegan Messing 118.37 (60.49, 59.88)
Daniel Raad 108.60 (57.40, 53.20 -2)
Lukas Kaugars 104.37 (44.17, 61.20 -1)
Scott Dyer 103.05 (45.35, 57.70)
Robert Przepioski 90.82 (45.52,47.30 -2)
Score tracker (Top 5 in each category gets points: 15/13/11/9/7; See breakdown of scores below)
Jason: 127
Adam: 115
Jeremy: 77
Max: 55
Richard: 18
Average competition score (includes Senior B appearances)
Adam Rippon: 237.48 (Skate America, NHK Trophy)
Jason Brown: 234.18 (Nebelhorn, Skate America, Trophee Eric Bompard)
Max Aaron: 233.64 (U.S. International Classic, Skate America, NHK Trophy)
Jeremy Abbott: 226.68 (Skate Canada, NHK Trophy)
Richard Dornbush: 213.58 (Finlandia Trophy, Cup of China, Rostelecom Cup)
Joshua Farris: 211.64 (U.S. International Classic, Skate Canada)
Ross Miner: 203.88 (Ondrej Nepala Trophy, Skate Canada)
Quad attempts during the GP: Success = No UR, no fall, no negative GOE below -1
Max Aaron: 4S (2/6); 4T (0/2)
Jeremy Abbott: 4T (1/3)
Adam Rippon: 4Z (0/2) 4T (0/2)
Joshua Farris: 4T (0/2)
Ross Miner: 4S (0/2)
Richard Dornbush: 4T (0/1); 4S (0/4)
GP Placements
Adam Rippon: 2nd (Skate America) + 4th (NHK Trophy)
Jason Brown: 3rd (Trophee Eric Bompard) + 5th (Skate America)
Jeremy Abbott: 3rd (NHK Trophy) + 6th (Skate Canada)
Max Aaron: 3rd (Skate America) + 7th ( NHK Trophy)
Richard Dornbush: 5th (Cup of China) + 5th (Rostelecom Cup)
Joshua Farris: 5th (Skate Canada)
Ross Miner: 9th (Skate Canada)
Comments
1.) Richard pulls a last minute appearance on the scoreboard with a respectable FS and racked up the third highest TES in the the FS for the GP series, taking away a few points from Jason, Adam and Jeremy. This shows that Richard can pull off decent results, but still a question mark.
2.) No men to the GP final, however Adam and Jason are second and third alternate, respectfully.
3.) U.S. men got some work to do on their quads. The stats show that Max is the only one who has hit multiple quads during the GP but even he is extremely inconsistent, which is odd given the consistency he hit them last season.
4.) Any dark horses outside the GP contestants? Going by senior B results and results so far at sectionals, not really. Tim Dolensky, who is currently leading at Eastern sectionals scored 70.21; Brandon Mroz, who is leading at Midwesterns with 70.76, attempted but UR-ed a 4T in the SP. Douglas Razzano is leading at Pacific Coast Sectionals with 66.84. Stephen Carriere, who was second at the U.S. Skating Classic is currently in 2nd at Eastern sectionals.
Questions
1.) Can Jason Brown get on the Olympic team (or even on the podium) without a quad? The strategy from Team Brown has been to get clean programs. He has been successful in the SP. The results have been a bit mixed in the FS. He has yet to successfully execute two 3As in his FS. Skate America was a bit dismal, though not a meltdown. But his relatively clean FS at TEB and its high score sans quad shows the judges like what they see. One thing to consider is that Jason has not had a clean FS at Nationals since his breakout FS in 2011. Of course it only takes one attempt to break a pattern.
2.) Can Max Aaron made a comeback? At the beginning of the season, many though Aaron’s spot on the Olympic team was all but secured given his respectable Worlds finish and what seemed to be consistency on the quad. That consistency has temporarily gone MIA during the GP. Also of concern is really low PCS (which apparently is a concern to Max, per the interview on Ice Network I'm watching right now). However, we know he can skate good programs with quads and he does have the highest FS score among all the men. I think we'll see a better Max at nationals.
3.) Can Adam win nationals? Although he’s behind Jason currently in overall score, he does have a better average score and had the highest placements in the GP. He jumps have improved greatly in the last year and his programs are lovely. He’s also close on the 4T, getting them ratified but with –GOE.
4.) What about Jeremy? Jeremy looked terrible earlier in the season but then went and made a major comeback at NHK, nearly matching his personal best, which is from when he won the GPF in 2008. Jeremy still gets some of the highest PCS, though Jason and Adam are both nipping at the heels at this point and past Nationals shows that it’s not enough if he does poorly on the TES side.
5.) And what about Joshua? He’s a huge question mark for me. I was sad to see him WD because he actually had a decent showing at Skate Canada in the FS (after a dismal SP) and I thought perhaps he could improve on his placement/score. Joshua had quite a bit of momentum being the junior world champ and getting the pewter at Nationals last year. He has a great 3A, but he seems to have struggled to get the 4T consistent.
Prediction
All bets are off at nationals, which is where the team will be determined. All this work I put in will be moot, so I’m not sure why I bothered to do all this work. I will go on a limb and say Max makes a comeback and makes the team with Adam Rippon. Jason gets on the podium and goes to 4CC. However, given my terrible score in the predictions game, you probably shouldn't listen to me.
****BREAK DOWN OF GP SCORES***
Total score
Jason Brown 243.09 (Trophee Eric Bompard)
Adam Rippon 241.24 (Skate America)
Max Aaron 238.36 (Skate America)
---------------------------------------
Jeremy Abbott 237.41 (NHK Trophy)
Adam Rippon 233.71 (NHK Trophy)
Jason Brown 231.03 (Skate America)
Max Aaron 223.35 (NHK Trophy)
Richard Dornbush 218.57 (Cup of China)
Joshua Farris 216.72 (Skate Canada)
Jeremy Abbott 215.95 (Skate Canada)
Richard Dornbush 215.45 (Rostelecom Cup)
Ross Miner 196.89 (Skate Canada)
Short Program
Jason Brown 84.77 (TEB)
Jason Brown 83.78 (SA)
Adam Rippon 82.25 (NHK)
---------------------------
Adam Rippon 80.26 (SA)
Jeremy Abbott: 78.78 (NHK)
Max Aaron: 76.21 (NHK)
Max Aaron 75.91 (SA)
Jeremy Abbott 74.58 (SC)
Richard Dornbush 72.58 (COC)
Joshua Farris 69.14 (SC)
Ross Miner 66.71 (SC)
Richard Dornbush 63.23 (COR)
Short Program TES
Jason Brown 45.98 (TEB)
Jason Brown 44.85 (SA)
Adam Rippon 44.80 (NHK)
---------------------------
Adam Rippon 43.23 (SA)
Max Aaron 41.37 (SA)
Max Aaron 40.65 (NHK)
Jeremy Abbott: 38.82 (NHK)
Richard Dornbush 36.47 (COC)
Jeremy Abbott 35.30 (SC)
Josh Farris 33.11 (SC)
Ross Miner 32.15 (SC)
Richard Dornbush: 27.82
Short Program PCS
Jeremy Abbott 39.96 (NHK)
Jeremy Abbott 39.28 (SC)
Jason Brown 38.93 (SA)
--------------------------
Jason Brown 38.79 (TEB)
Adam Rippon 37.85 (NHK)
Adam Rippon 37.03 (SA)
Richard Dornbush 36.92 (COR)
Ross Miner 36.56 (SC)
Richard Dornbush 36.11 (COC)
Max Aaron 36.56 (NHK)
Josh Farris 36.03 (SC)
Max Aaron 34.68 (SA)
Free Skate
Max Aaron: 162.45 (SA)
Adam Rippon: 160.98 (SA)
Jeremy Abbott 158.63 (NHK)
------------------------------
Jason Brown: 158.32 (TEB)
Richard Dornbush: 151.71 (COR)
Adam Rippon: 151.46
Joshua Farris: 147.58 (SC)
Jason Brown: 147.25 (SA)
Max Aaron: 147.14 (NHK)
Richard Dornbush: 145.99 (COC)
Jeremy Abbott: 141.37 (SC)
Ross Miner: 130.18 (SC)
Free Skate TES
Max Aaron: 90.47
Adam Rippon: 83.01
Richard Dornbush 79.85
------------------------
Jeremy Abbott: 78.25
Jason Brown: 78.20
Max Aaron: 78.20
Richard Dornbush 76.61
Joshua Farris: 74.80
Adam Rippon 73.60
Jason Brown: 68.69
Jeremy Abbott: 65.59
Ross Miner: 60.54
Free Skate PCS
Adam Rippon: 82.08 (SA)
Jeremy Abbott: 80.38 (NHK)
Jason Brown: 80.12 (TEB)
-----------------------
Jason Brown: 79.56 (SA)
Adam Rippon: 77.86 (NHK)
Jeremy Abbott: 77.78 (SC)
Joshua Farris: 73.78 (SC)
Richard Dornbush 72.86 (COR)
Max Aaron: 72.98 (SA)
Richard Dornbush 70.38 (COC)
Ross Miner: 69.64 (SC)
Max Aaron: 68.94 (COR)
**** U.S. SECTIONAL RESULTS******
Timothy Dolensky: 209.85 (E1)
Grant Hochstein: 209.29 (E2)
Stephen Carriere: 209.04 (E3)
Brandon Mroz: 194.68 (M1)
Douglas Razzano: 189.03 (P1)
Sean Rabbit: 184.05 (P2)
Philip Warren: 182.69 (P3)
Keegan Messing: 174.30 (P4)
Lukas Kaugars: 171.22 (M2)
Daniel Raad: 169.85 (E4)
Scott Dyer: 161.57 (M3)
Robert Przepioski: 138.31 (M4)
SP Scores (TES, PCS)
Brandon Mroz 70.76 (36.71, 34.05)
Timothy Dolensky 70.21 (39.06, 32.15 -1)
Stephen Carriere 69.27 (36.07, 33.20)
Grant Hochstein 68.82 (39.02, 30.80 -1)
Lukas Kaugars 66.85 (33.50, 33.35)
Douglas Razzano 66.84 (36.09, 31.75 -1)
Daniel Raad 61.25 (34.00, 27.25)
Philip Warren 60.66 (32.71, 28.95 -1)
Scott Dyer 58.52 (27.92, 30.60)
Sean Rabbitt, 58.01 (28.76, 29.25)
Keegan Messing, 55.93 (27.30; 29.63-1)
Robert Przepioski 47.49 (23.04, 25.45 -1)
FS Scores
Grant Hochstein 140.47 (73.67, 66.80)
Stephen Carriere 139.77 (70.57, 69.20)
Timothy Dolensky 139.64 (73.95, 66.70)
Sean Rabbitt 126.04 (66.04, 60.00)
Brandon Mroz 123.92 (59.02, 64.90)
Douglas Razzano 122.19 (61.81, 60.38)
Philip Warren 122.03 (66.39, 56.64)
Keegan Messing 118.37 (60.49, 59.88)
Daniel Raad 108.60 (57.40, 53.20 -2)
Lukas Kaugars 104.37 (44.17, 61.20 -1)
Scott Dyer 103.05 (45.35, 57.70)
Robert Przepioski 90.82 (45.52,47.30 -2)