Well, at this point even his participation seems remote. :scratch:
Plushenko or Kovtun?
- Thread starter skateluvr
- Start date
Well, at this point even his participation seems remote. :scratch:
- Joined
- Dec 29, 2011
wallylutz said:
Yes, those 90+ and 100+ just keep happening as if it was nothing! :sarcasm: (sidenote: the highest TES at worlds 2013 was Hanyu's 89.05 - not one sinlge 90+)
This is the Olympics - and the medals will probably belong to those who keep their butt's of the ice and not those who just go for the most difficulty on paper. It doesn't matter if Plush would "just" get something around 85 in TES - his PCS would very likely be higher than your 70 points, and something beteween 160 - 170 could very well keep him in the running if these "many" skaters with 90+ TES potential falter.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
I don't know. These numbers aren't so dire (post 20). Plushenko will get 85 in PCS just for being Plushenko, so with 85 in TES, that puts him in the 170 range. The other guys have to deliver their stuff, too. So far the winners of the Grand Prix events have gone 174 (Machida, SA), 173 (Chan, SC), 156 (Kovtun, China), 172 (Takahashi, NHK), and 172 (Machida, Rostelecom) -- setting aside Chan's untouchable 195 at TEB. Win or lose, it would be cool to see the old warrior standing in the gap one last time.
- Joined
- Jun 3, 2008
Giving him 70 because he has no transitions sounds like Pcs mark is only based on transitions, and how do you give interpretation 7, like who else can interpret better The best if Plushenko? :d
All of this in jest cause we watch one b event he went after lots of months, I don't know why people tear apart this performance, it is the same as some July -August events you see the programs of skaters in some crappy feed, Plushenko thrives in actual competition, I m not saying he will be a threat for podium but he certainly skated better this lp having no actual motive than Kovtun in Cor. The issue now is if he ll go to Sochi, how he performs there is another task.
All of this in jest cause we watch one b event he went after lots of months, I don't know why people tear apart this performance, it is the same as some July -August events you see the programs of skaters in some crappy feed, Plushenko thrives in actual competition, I m not saying he will be a threat for podium but he certainly skated better this lp having no actual motive than Kovtun in Cor. The issue now is if he ll go to Sochi, how he performs there is another task.
Last edited:
It was also an extremely poorly skated FS. Like any extremes, the probability of them repeating is low. Side note: Despite having the highest TES in the FS, Hanyu missed the podium due to his PCS being 9 points lower than his TES, therefore, don't assume he will automatically get high PCS if he continues to skate as slowly as Hanyu does in FS. Chances are both will get ding in PCS.
Plushenko too can make mistakes. He hasn't skated clean since Euro 2012, couldn't even make top 3 at Japan Open not to mention he went ice splashing at Euro 2013. Even at Volvo Cup, he still missed a jump, and his step sequences continue to be messy. The fact is even when a skater like Hanyu, who is by no means dominant in anyway, managed to score 87+ in TES after missing a jumping pass entirely and went ice kissing on another jump - it tells you Plushenko simply does not have enough technical content to be up there even when a rival makes two major errors in the FS. As it stands, Hanyu, Takahashi and Fernandez have about 2 falls advantage over Plushenko.
I doubt it. It is true not many have the guts to mark him down appropriately in TR although some do, as we witnessed in Vancouver, some judges gave him 5s or 6s for TR which of course led to cries of unfair politicking against Joe Inman. The fact is, Plushenko's program continues to be void of content or substance between elements. He struggles to maintain even decent use of the blades even during the required step sequences, therefore, you can understand why he isn't doing anything between elements - he is simply unable to do more, possibly due to health issues.
Even if you give Plushenko PCS equal to his TES, which is a big if, the only event he would have come out on top in FS is in Cup of China, arguably against a very weak field. A legitimate question should be asked then whether it would be better for Russia to consider Kovtun and start to grow this young talent now as opposed to a long shot attempt at a final glory for Plushenko?
um...because half of time, he is doing nothing but stroking and no upper body movement except the occasion hip thrust and airplane arms. This is not show skating. As a competitive skating program, there is no substance in it to mark it any higher.
Kovtun does have to beat plushenko twice probably maybe. Russian nationals and euros. It's very true that Russia unless fame overrides potential- If plushenko asks for waivers from euros or nationals if he is beaten by kovtun- will probably not do just whatever plushenko wants because he's famous. Sure usfs bent to kwans fame but only because of 3 spots! You think Kwan couldve overridden Cohen?!? Lol. But now I'm not sure because even though there is the kovtun precedent he must be the number one Russian male somewhere soon!!
- Joined
- Jun 27, 2012
- Country
-
Oh, thank you, I just understand how weak skater he is.
- Joined
- Dec 29, 2011
wallylutz said:
Yes, and Olympics are of course always perfectly skated events. Even 'well skated' would be enough to count for irony here. That's how Lysacek became OGM. Side note: I know that, and I simply mentioned it to show your 90+ TES were not necessarily realistic for the big events. Your side remarks at a skater just because I like him won't help you with your actual arguments.
wallylutz said:
It's kinda cute how you try to continue side blowing Hanyu. Whatever that has to do with Plush... nobody said that Plush will skate clean. The point is, despite what you said before, he does have a chance if he skates clean, because there's a high chance enough other men will make mistakes.
Besides, if you argue under the presumption Plush would only be worth sending if he was a definite medal threat, you're wrong. Plush deserves to go as long as he's still the best russian men. You think Kovtun will beat Chan, Takahashi, Hanyu or Fernandez when they skate well?
plushyfan said:
- Joined
- Sep 14, 2008
- Country
-
LOL. His Lutz edge is not at all unclear. He always takes off from a deep outside edge.
Those spin GOE's are too high. His Camel is clearly a 0 at most. -1 would be fair because of how much speed he loses in it, along with the positions being average. The sit spin is 0 or +1, if you want to credit the jump feature as being well done. Nothing else about that spin was above average.
Now, in terms of the technical content, I continue to be baffled by Team Mishin's disregard for CoP. The first thing that caught my attention is that Plushenko continues to do only 2 jump combos instead of the 3 he is allowed knowing that this actually cost him the gold medal in Vancouver.
Do a little research. Plushenko plans a 3Sal+2Axel sequence. He obviously didn't do it here because he was too tired.
His jump layout is perfectly fine like this. He is backloading 5 jumping passes, including all the combinations. That's a huge change for him. He doesn't need more than one Quad and he doesn't need a Triple Flip.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZeQlQ_p4ZE
Now, in terms of the technical content, I continue to be baffled by Team Mishin's disregard for CoP. The first thing that caught my attention is that Plushenko continues to do only 2 jump combos instead of the 3 he is allowed knowing that this actually cost him the gold medal in Vancouver.
I missed this! No he plans and has done 3 combos or sequences. What happened in the whole 2009-2010 season was belief that he would fall on the third jump of any 3 jump combo, SO like in Turin and previously, or UR it so he never did one. He believed 3 2 jump combos one of which was a quad triple would get the BV and GOE to make up for the third jump he was leaving out. It wasn't a ridiculous idea. But he should have done a 3 jump combo of course. Now he has every season since Vancouver. And it's an important change as is all the backloading or midloading!
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
That's a little bit of an odd choice. A 3S-2L is worth the same base value as a 3S-2A(SEQ) and obviously much easier to execute.
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
Not a weak skater, a weak program. But let's give him time to develop his programs. I hope he gets his programs at least to the difficulty and quality of Euros 2012. It would be a shame to see him put out another jump fest when it seemed he was on the right track to making his programs actually intricate and with strong choreography.
Lysacek defeated a clean Plushenko for gold and Lysacek himself was clean, so yes, it was well skated indeed given that both the Gold and Silver medalists were clean in SP and LP. Unlike Dennis Ten who won his World Silver by being the last man standing in a splashfest, Lysacek did not win his OGM due to a splashfest or anything remotely resembling that. I can't recall a time when a man's Olympic Champion was crowned from a splashfest or anything remotely close to that in the last 20 years. It seems to me you are confusing the women's event with the men's.
In other news, there is a chance that Gamma ray from a super nova will hit earth tomorrow. Or for something a little more realistic, it's possible everyone will tumble badly again such that Dennis Ten will win OGM. Nevermind the probability you are referring to is a big long shot. What you refused to understand, which is puzzling to me, is that Plushenko's current Technical content is insufficient such that several men can afford 2 major errors and still beat him technically. In other words, even if Plushenko were clean, some of current top male skaters can still beat him by being less than clean because they have so much more content than he does. To illustrate this point, I used a recent example, which is Hanyu's FS at TEB. It wasn't a dig at him, but for some odd reasons you think showing Hanyu having a 2 falls advantage over Plushenko = insult.
Frankly, neither Plusehnko or Kovtun have a realistic shot even though Kovtun just scored a 90+ SP at CoR. The difference is, investment in Kovtun = investment for Russia's future men skating. Lysacek credited his OGM to his learning experience at the 2006 Olympics. If Kovtun or another Russian man is deprived of this experience, no Russian man would have been to Olympics other than Plushenko in 8 years when 2018 Olympics happens or 12 years if you consider Borodulin is no longer skating. That's a lost decade.
Let's face it, the chance that Russian Nationals will crown a new Russian Champion other than Plushenko when he competes is virtually non-existent. No matter what he does, he will get straight 9s and 10s for PCS. This is sad however. Russian men have been depressing for a very long time and the fact their national qualification system is inequitable plays a big part to ensure many young men quit already as they can't see the light at the end of the tunnel.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
IMHO there is no way the Russian Federation will send anyone but Plushenko to Sochi if he wants to go. No more was the USFSA going to send Emily Hughes ahead of Michelle Kwan in 2006.
But Plushenko could do what Kwan did. March in the opening ceremonies,wave the flag, get interviewed for TV, then decide that his body is not up to it after all.
But Plushenko could do what Kwan did. March in the opening ceremonies,wave the flag, get interviewed for TV, then decide that his body is not up to it after all.
CanadianSkaterGuy already clarified this important nuance for me. I'll add that many fans continue to advocate for reputation judging and that established skaters be given reputation bonus as opposed to what was actually skated on ice. That's what Team Mishin / Russian Fed is hoping for as well by withdrawing Plushenko from CoR when he is clearly capable of competing at CoR as demonstrated by his recent showing at Volvo Cup. To be clear, many top skaters used the same approach in the past - avoid competing as much as possible or competing in B events or informal competitions. For this reason, I have my doubt Plushenko will even show up at Euros 2014. My guess is he will show up at Russian Nationals and crowned National Champion no matter what happens, officially named as Russia's solo Olympic entry, then skip Euros citing injury/health issues.
Kovtun's 92 at CoR was laughable. Yes, he deserved the high TES, but his PCS scores were absurd. He is stiff as a board and his technique is poor.
Kovtun got a higher PCS score for his messy FS at COR than Jeremy Abbott got for his sublime FS at NHK. How can that possibly be justified?!
Kovtun got a higher PCS score for his messy FS at COR than Jeremy Abbott got for his sublime FS at NHK. How can that possibly be justified?!
Similar threads
