Takahashi withdraws from GPF

NMURA · Nov 28, 2013

http://www.skatingjapan.or.jp/image_data/EVENT/2099_2.pdf

It says "he got injured during practice session on 26th"
and "takes two weeks to heal".

Probably not that serious.

The first alternate Oda is taking his place. Good for him!

MaiKatze · Nov 28, 2013

That really sucks. I still hope for an Olympic Medal for Dai and I hope he will be ok sooner than later.

NMURA · Nov 28, 2013

Politically speaking, Takahashi's WD is helpful for Hanyu. Now Hanyu will be the home favorite in Japan, who can expect similar treatments with Takahashi at NHK trophy (even if not that blatant though). Oda could get lucky but he is helpless anyway. All judges (including Japanese) will try to hold him down. In this year, the highest finisher at GPF could be considered as the Olympic medal favorite for Japan. That position SHOULD belong to Hanyu OR Takahashi. I expect Hanyu's PCS will rise drastically. It would be some threat for Chan. Probably 290 points is the taｒget score, if Hanyu lands all jumps (like Chan at TEB).

wallylutz · Nov 28, 2013

NMURA said:
Politically speaking, Takahashi's WD is helpful for Hanyu. Now Hanyu will be the home favorite in Japan, who can expect similar treatments with Takahashi at NHK trophy (even if not that blatant though). Oda could get lucky but he is helpless anyway. All judges (including Japanese) will try to hold him down. In this year, the highest finisher at GPF could be considered as the Olympic medal favorite for Japan. That position SHOULD belong to Hanyu OR Takahashi. I expect Hanyu's PCS will rise drastically. It would be some threat for Chan. Probably 290 points is the taｒget score, if Hanyu lands all jumps (like Chan at TEB).

Considering Hanyu's FS PCS this GP season is between 76.86 and 81.94, to reach 290, he will probably have to score somewhere near 92~95 in PCS. In terms of the content that Hanyu has in his FS, he simply doesn't have what it takes to break 90s in PCS, favoritism or otherwise. The fact is Hanyu couldn't even beat Kevin Reynolds in Japan for the Four Continents title and his PCS again, failed to breach 82.

This is how Hanyu did in terms of PCS in his Free Skate in 2013 at ISU Championships and GP :

Four Continents (Osaka, Japan) : 81.78
World Championships (London, Canada) : 80.00
Skate Canada Int'l (Moncton, Canada) : 76.86
Trophee Eric Bompard (Paris, France) : 81.94

It should noted that at Worlds, he more or less landed all his jumps but his PCS dropped by 9+ points anyway compared to his TES.

To expect Hanyu to suddenly be competitive against Chan merely 3 weeks after being beaten by 30+ points is not realistic and would likely put undue pressure on his shoulders. For starter, Hanyu needs to get rid of his current outfit in the FS or else some people will continue to raise their eyebrows whenever they see it, justified or otherwise. It just doesn't make him look champion worthy and everyone needs to dress to win. Whether in skating or business world, humans judge each other on their outfit, it's been so for the entire duration of human history.

MFarone · Nov 28, 2013

Wishing Dai a speedy recovery....and good luck at Japanese Nationals!

NMURA · Nov 28, 2013

For "clean" Hanyu, 290 is absolutely attainable.

SP TES 53.5 PCS 43.5 = 97.0
FS TES 104 PCS 89 = 193.0

If you replace the first two jump paths of his TEB free with Finlandia's, the TES will be 103.8. He received the PCS of 87 points at Finlandia. It will be a little higher with perfection as the home favorite. Last year, he received 85.2 points PCS at GPF in Sochi (with a little short of perfection). By the way, his PCS at last years GPS (79.6 @SA, 78.8 @NHK) are lower than this year's TEB (81.8). There are much rooms to improve. Of course, such scores could put huge pressure on Chan. That would be the best mental test for Chan, who always skates poorly in Japan.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Nov 28, 2013

NMURA said:
Politically speaking, Takahashi's WD is helpful for Hanyu.

I'm not quite so sure. Oda has been fairly consistent and was also close to beating Hanyu in their first head-to-head. If Hanyu skates another FS like TEB, then he will quite probably lose to Oda. Hanyu losing to Dai isn't as big a deal as him losing to Oda.

Li'Kitsu · Nov 28, 2013

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
I'm not quite so sure. Oda has been fairly consistent and was also close to beating Hanyu in their first head-to-head. If Hanyu skates another FS like TEB, then he will quite probably lose to Oda. Hanyu losing to Dai isn't as big a deal as him losing to Oda.

"Another FS like TEB", erm... Hanyus LP at SC, the one where Oda nearly beat him, was worse than his TEB LP. It scored 14 points lower. And even this "bad" LP lost to Nobus better one from NHK by 2 points. Not to mention that Hanyus overall score from TEB still is 10 points higher than Odas from NHK. Of corse it's possible that Oda might beat Hanyu, but Hanyu with his TEB LP will pretty likely not lose to Oda... and there's the SP too and Oda is actually not anymore consistent than Hanyu is. (And I'm saying that although I really want him to skate well and be the 3rd japanese man for Sochi).

emdee · Nov 29, 2013

pangtongfan said:
Regardless what he could score, I have never seen Hanyu skate a clean long program. Granted he has only been senior a few years now. Even Chan once in a blue moon skates a clean competition so it wasnt that shocking when he did it again in his last outing. I am still waiting for Hanyu`s though.

We will make a Chanfan of you yet!

You are so right. I love Hanyu but he seems to melt down in the long.

On the matter of Hanyu and Oda I think Oda's program is simpler and doesnt rack up the points the same way.
Time will tell.

NMURA · Nov 29, 2013

I think stamina is not the problem for Hanyu any more. You can see that by his perfect FS except for the first two quads. His urgent problem is getting the 4S more consistent. Its success ratio is improving compared to the last season. It looks like TEB was on his off day as far as the 4S was concerned. If Hanyu could land it, he is most likely to collect TES higher than 93. According to a recent interview, Hanyu himself is confident about breaking 100 in TES in near future.

Coriana · Nov 29, 2013

Time William Tell. (sorry)

Mia_ · Nov 29, 2013

oh no...

waxel · Nov 29, 2013

Hate to hear of this injury. At least he withdrew in time to place an alternate.

age20 · Nov 30, 2013

NMURA said:
For "clean" Hanyu, 290 is absolutely attainable.

SP TES 53.5 PCS 43.5 = 97.0
FS TES 104 PCS 89 = 193.0

If you replace the first two jump paths of his TEB free with Finlandia's, the TES will be 103.8. He received the PCS of 87 points at Finlandia. It will be a little higher with perfection as the home favorite. Last year, he received 85.2 points PCS at GPF in Sochi (with a little short of perfection). By the way, his PCS at last years GPS (79.6 @SA, 78.8 @NHK) are lower than this year's TEB (81.8). There are much rooms to improve. Of course, such scores could put huge pressure on Chan. That would be the best mental test for Chan, who always skates poorly in Japan.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Dec 3, 2013

I cut Hanyu some slack. He does two quads (different ones at that), and two axels in his program and not many men out there attempt that kind of difficulty. Unfortunately, he seems to have this vested interest in executing a 4S, when his 4T is more consistent for him. I think Hanyu is certainly capable of a clean program, but not with that 4S in there. It seems he's adamant to keep it in there in order to avoid turning his 3Z into a 2A to avoid Zayaking. Points-wise it makes sense, but not if he's unable to land the 4S consistently.

As for "SP TES 53.5 PCS 43.5 = 97.0; FS TES 104 PCS 89 = 193.0". Um, no. Just... no. You're speaking in terms of the ideals of ideals. Maybe with home ice inflation he can hit 97 in his SP, but there's absolutely no way he's getting 193 points in his FS. He would have to smash his PB by 16 points... and he's no Patrick Chan. The highest Yuzu has scored on TES in the FS is 91.99 -- you're quite idealistic to think he'll score 104 points of TES. One could argue it happened with Ten last year where he smashed his PB at Worlds, but that wasn't with the difficulty and risk Yuzu is attempting.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Dec 3, 2013

pangtongfan said:
Regardless what he could score, I have never seen Hanyu skate a clean long program. Granted he has only been senior a few years now. Even Chan once in a blue moon skates a clean competition so it wasnt that shocking when he did it again in his last outing. I am still waiting for Hanyu`s though.

Oh, and for the record, once in a blue moon ANY skater/team skates a clean competition. This season on the GP, the only SP+LP skaters (ice dancers don't count obviously) to have given a totally clean competition are Chan at TEB, V/T in both GP outings, and Lipnitskaia at SC (unless I'm missing any others who skated both a clean SP and clean LP). Only one skater/team in each discipline has skated an entirely clean SP & LP thus far.

6 events, 155 complete sets of SP+LP skated between all the men's, ladies and pairs entries. 4 have been clean (2.58%).

doctor2014 · Dec 3, 2013

For some reason NMURA looks like a big conspiracy theorist who always puts unnecessary pressure on Hanyu. I don't know if this is NMURA's way of bashing Hanyu, since it's equally effective as the frank bashers.

Anyway I don't think the JSF will favor Hanyu at GPF though. They will favor neither Hanyu nor Oda, especially the latter one deserves more respect from JSF. Daisuke's absence will help Machida the most, as Machida is the most favored one by JSF this season. He gets quite inflated PCS compared to all other Japanese men.

NMURA · Dec 3, 2013

doctor2014 said:
Anyway I don't think the JSF will favor Hanyu at GPF though. They will favor neither Hanyu nor Oda, especially the latter one deserves more respect from JSF. Daisuke's absence will help Machida the most, as Machida is the most favored one by JSF this season. He gets quite inflated PCS compared to all other Japanese men.

I disagree with good reasons. They want to reduce variables to manipulate at Japanese nationals as much as possible. Hanyu's win will guarantee his Olympic spot, then they can concentrate on pushing Takahashi. Takahashi's "injury" makes his position vulnerable as an Olympic medal candidate. GPF is a good occasion to give Hanyu some boost especially in the PCS division. Machida has a little advantage against Oda but they don't care which one comes ahead finally.

doctor2014 · Dec 3, 2013

MMURA said:
I disagree with good reasons.

I see you disagree with me, but I don't see any good reasons.

MMURA said:
Takahashi's "injury" makes his position vulnerable as an Olympic medal candidate.

This is impossible. If Daisuke shows up at Japanese Nationals, he will make the Olympic team. If he has a decent even if imperfect competition, he will be Japanese champion again. There's no way JSF will make Daisuke out of Olympics. They'll do their best to send Daisuke to Sochi. I think Daisuke has a good chance to win his second Olympic medal.

MMURA said:
GPF is a good occasion to give Hanyu some boost especially in the PCS division. Machida has a little advantage against Oda but they don't care which one comes ahead finally.

I disagree with you. I think GPF is a good occasion to give Machida some boost especially in the PCS division. Hanyu has a little advantage against Oda but they don't care which one comes ahead finally.

NMURA · Dec 3, 2013

I see "doctor" is afraid of Hanyu so much. Hanyu has the highest TES potential in the world. If he was given the federation favorite treatment, that would be something, whereas Machida and Takahashi pose no threat to his favorite.

Takahashi withdraws from GPF

NMURA

MaiKatze

NMURA

wallylutz

MFarone

NMURA

CanadianSkaterGuy

Li'Kitsu

emdee

NMURA

Coriana

Mia_

waxel

age20

CanadianSkaterGuy

CanadianSkaterGuy

doctor2014

NMURA

doctor2014

NMURA

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