The Olympic team event

Mathman · Dec 3, 2013

1. I do not agree with Blades of Passion that this is a big mess. All those weird things that might happen, that just makes it more exciting. As for bribing someone to throw the game, that risk is present in every sport.

2. If I were a skater I would be pleased to skate in the team event as a warm-up and dress rehearsal for the individual competition the next week. Get used to the ice, get used to the crowd, get your legs under you, put the finishing touches on your program, then you are ready to go when the individual medals are up for grabs. I wouldn't plan to be so exhausted that I wouldn't be at my best the next week.

3. Is there really such a thing as a "short program specialist?" Some skaters do tend to peter out in the long program and some have a history of succumbing to jitters in the short. But its not like, say, a gymnast who is a specialist on the balance beam and not so strong on the other apparatuses. For most countries your best SP skater is also your best LP skater, I would think.

enlight78 · Dec 3, 2013

Mathman said:
3. Is there really such a thing as a "short program specialist?" Some skaters do tend to peter out in the long program and some have a history of succumbing to jitters in the short. But its not like, say, a gymnast who is a specialist on the balance beam and not so strong on the other apparatuses. For most countries your best SP skater is also your best LP skater, I would think.

Very true, but when there 1 or 2 placement separating you from a medal, you might want to take in consideration, that Jason Brown has the highestsp while Adam Rippon has the highest long, or Hanyu"s high potential in sp , while Machida been most consistant in LP, etc

ImaginaryPogue · Dec 3, 2013

Voloszhar/Trankov have stated they only want to do the short program.

Duhamel/Radford have made the same comment.

Steuer has told the German federation that S/S will not be competing in the team event.

Russia, USA and Canada are the three teams that I consider favourites for the medal and likely finalists. China, Japan, Italy and France are the others that will be fighting for a spot in the finals.

Mathman, while I agree in general there is no such thing as a short program specialist, you can guess which skaters are likely to do better in the short than the long. If you have one, two or three skaters competing in the individual event, likelihood of medaling there, stamina etc. Additionally, some nations have a stronger shot at a team medal than an individual one (France and Italy, mainly). The rules mean you want your big guns in the short program, regardless.

Mathman · Dec 3, 2013

ImaginaryPogue said:
Voloszhar/Trankov have stated they only want to do the short program.

Duhamel/Radford have made the same comment.

Steuer has told the German federation that S/S will not be competing in the team event.

This will help the United States, hurt Russia and Canada.

I don't get it. V&S and D&R have a chance to go to the Olympic Games, to represent their countries on the world stage, to compete for a team gold medal in front of an audience of a billion people, and they say, "nah, I'll just take an extra nap instead." Their federations should boot them out.

The rules mean you want your big guns in the short program, regardless.

True, true. The team SP will be the most exciting event of the Games. :rock:

ImaginaryPogue · Dec 3, 2013

Mathman said:
This will help the United States, hurt Russia and Canada.

I don't get it. V&S and D&R have a chance to go to the Olympic Games, to represent their countries on the world stage, to compete for a team gold medal in front of an audience of a billion people, and they say, "nah, I'll just take an extra nap instead." Their federations should boot them out.

True, true. The team SP will be the most exciting event of the Games.

How will it hurt Canada? Moore-Towers/Moscovitch have the second highest LP score this season.

I don't think you're being fair with your second comment, though.

Coriana · Dec 3, 2013

I can't comment on V/T - but Duhamel and Radford will be accompanied by MTM, a team that is very, very close in ability... actually with higher scores so far this season. It's even money as to which will go to the Olys as National Champions. I would fully expect both teams to share the team event, and be disappointed if they did not. Chan has made the same comments as Mathman does in his second paragraph above, but if Kevin Reynolds is in top form,- an unknown till Nationals, I would not be surprised if Chan were asked to consider yielding one of programmes in order to keep fresh. It depends how much the Federation wants gold as opposed to wanting to break the Canadian curse in men's singles.

Blades of Passion · Dec 3, 2013

Mathman said:
1. I do not agree with Blades of Passion that this is a big mess. All those weird things that might happen, that just makes it more exciting. As for bribing someone to throw the game, that risk is present in every sport.

How is it present in every sport? You're there because of merit in every other sport and your abilities are directly scored against your competitors'. Assume a swimming team has one really strong swimmer who can reliably beat almost anyone else in the World and 3 relatively weak swimmers. Now assume this one really strong swimmer started the relay race off for his team and finished 2nd on that leg of the race. His 2nd place finish doesn't suddenly mean the 3rd place team is at a disadvantage to the 1st place team for the rest of the race. Nobody can pay that one awesome swimmer on the weak team to throw his section of the race in order to benefit another team.

By using a ranking system, and then throwing out half of the competitors in the second phase of the competition, it drastically skews the point of the whole thing. What exactly is even being measured here? Semantics, it seems like. Not a clear assessment of the best figure skating team in the World.

Mathman · Dec 3, 2013

IMHO the "keeping fresh" argument is for the birds. Chan's chances in the individual contest will not be diminished by having skated in the team event the week before. If Canada does not go Chan,Chan, Chan, Chan, that is a slap in the face of the Olympic ideal. (And so Canada should be kicked out of the Games. If you're not there to win, go home.

)

But I will go along with Moore-Towers and Moscovitch. :yes:

Here's the thing.

The Olympic Games is not the World Championship. At the World Championships the goal is to show that you are the best skater in the world. (Rachael Flatt was not wrong to try to compete hurt -- she was competing as an individual.)

But the Olympics is about waving the flag and earning as much hardware as possible for your country. Team first, individual second. :yes:

coppertop1 · Dec 3, 2013

Coriana said:
I can't comment on V/T - but Duhamel and Radford will be accompanied by MTM, a team that is very, very close in ability... actually with higher scores so far this season. It's even money as to which will go to the Olys as National Champions. I would fully expect both teams to share the team event, and be disappointed if they did not. Chan has made the same comments as Mathman does in his second paragraph above, but if Kevin Reynolds is in top form,- an unknown till Nationals, I would not be surprised if Chan were asked to consider yielding one of programmes in order to keep fresh. It depends how much the Federation wants gold as opposed to wanting to break the Canadian curse in men's singles.

Duhamel/Radford and Moore-Towers/Moscovich are neck and neck, 3rd and 4th at Worlds and going back and forth with beating the other's score. So I don't see it hurting Canada. Having one do the SP and the other do the LP makes sense. As does having Reynolds do one and Chan do the other. It is a good opportunity to get some wrinkles out of the program before the main competition. That's what Jeff Buttle said, too.

I'm looking forward to it, and not just because Canada should do well! I can see Canada, Russia and the US being on the podium.

Mathman · Dec 3, 2013

Blades of Passion said:
How is it present in every sport?

Are you asking how bribery is possible in every sport? In 1919 some big-time gamblers bribed eight players on the Chicago White Sox team to throw the world series to the Cincinnati Reds.

By using a ranking system, and then throwing out half of the competitors in the second phase of the competition, it drastically skews the point of the whole thing. What exactly is even being measured here? Semantics, it seems like. Not a clear assessment of the best figure skating team in the World.

That's true. But it is still fair, because every team plays by the same rules, however peculiar they might be. What's cool about this scheme is that it lets the little guy save the day. The whole contest might come down to whether the Chinese dance team can beat someone to finish 9th instead of 10th in the short dance. :rock:

ImaginaryPogue · Dec 3, 2013

Mathman said:
IMHO the "keeping fresh" argument is for the birds. Chan's chances in the individual contest will not be diminished by having skated in the team event the week before. If Canada does not go Chan,Chan, Chan, Chan, that is a slap in the face of the Olympic ideal. (And so Canada should be kicked out of the Games. If you're not there to win, go home. )

But I will go along with Moore-Towers and Moscovitch. :yes:

Here's the thing. The Olympic Games is not the World Championship. At the World Championships the goal is to show that you are the best skater in the world. (Rachael Flatt was not wrong to try to compete hurt -- she was competing as an individual.)

But the Olympics is about waving the flag and earning as much hardware as possible for your country. Team first, individual second. :yes:

Of course, contributing successfully to two events (team and individual) means your nation wins more hardware then contributing successfully to one. And since athletes are in fact unsure how this event will play out with their training and have said as much, repeatedly, I'm inclined to be forgiving. Heck, I'd go so far to say the team event should be restructured and everyone should be forced to field two entrants per discipline.

I mean, can you imagine if Shen/Zhao had to compete the team event in 2006? Or Stoijko in 1998? Or Rochette in 2010?

Blades of Passion · Dec 3, 2013

Mathman said:
Are you asking how bribery is possible in every sport?

I edited my post, see the extra details.

Your example of the 1919 World Series isn't at all the same thing. That is like paying the probable Gold medalists to lose, so the Silver medalists can win. Entirely different than paying the probable 8th place team to throw the game so that the would-be Silver medalist can win.

Mathman · Dec 3, 2013

It's different, because it would take a lot more money to bribe the gold medalists than it would to bribe a third party that has no stake in the outcome. Like the judges.

Skater Boy · Dec 3, 2013

coppertop1 said:
This is where Japan is at a disadvantage, with their pairs and dance not as strong. I predict bronze between Japan and the US

After the short program:
Japan
Asada (1)
Japanese pairs team (10)
Daisuke (2)
Japanese dance team (10)
Total 23. They may be kept off the podium for that

USA
Wagner (3)
Denney/Coughlin (8)
Davis/White (2)
Rippon (5)
Total 18

I am pretty sure USA will win dance with Davis and White. And D/C could place higher as well; Canada could skate badly in pairs.

Blades of Passion · Dec 4, 2013

Assuming Savchenko/Szolkowy do not compete in the team event and no competitors take a payout and throw their performance in order to benefit another country, then I would probably predict something like:

1. RUSSIA - 70 points

Men SP - 3rd - 8 points
Ladies SP - 2nd - 9 points
Pairs SP - 1st - 10 points
Dance SP - 3rd - 8 points

Men LP - 3rd - 8 points
Ladies LP - 2nd - 9 points
Pairs LP - 1st - 10 points
Dance LP - 3rd - 8 points

2. CANADA - 67 points

Men SP - 1st - 10 points
Ladies SP - 5th - 6 points
Pairs SP - 3rd - 8 points
Dance SP - 2nd - 9 points

Men LP - 1st - 10 points
Ladies LP - 5th - 6 points
Pairs LP - 2nd - 9 points
Dance LP - 2nd - 9 points

3. USA - 62 points

Men SP - 5th - 6 points
Ladies SP - 3rd - 8 points
Pairs SP - 5th - 6 points
Dance SP - 1st - 10 points

Men LP - 4th - 7 points
Ladies LP - 4th - 7 points
Pairs LP - 3rd - 8 points
Dance LP - 1st - 10 points

4. JAPAN - 54 points

Men SP - 2nd - 9 points
Ladies SP - 1st - 10 points
Pairs SP - 10th - 1 point
Dance SP - 8th - 3 points

Men LP - 2nd - 9 points
Lades LP - 1st - 10 points
Pairs LP - 5th - 6 points
Dane LP - 5th - 6 points

5. ITALY - 50 points

Men SP - 9th - 2 points
Ladies SP - 4th - 7 points
Pairs SP - 4th - 7 points
Dance SP - 5th - 6 points

Men LP - 5th - 6 points
Ladies LP - 3rd - 8 points
Pairs LP - 4th - 7 points
Dance LP - 4th - 7 points

6. FRANCE - 22 points

Men SP - 6th - 5 points
Ladies SP - 6th - 5 points
Pairs SP - 6th - 5 points
Dance SP - 4th - 7 points

7. CHINA - 21 points

Men SP - 4th - 7 points
Ladies SP - 7th - 4 points
Pairs SP - 2nd - 9 points
Dance SP - 10th - 1 point

8. GERMANY - 14 points

Men SP - 7th - 4 points
Ladies SP - 10th - 1 point
Pairs SP - 7th - 4 points
Dance SP - 6th - 5 points

9. UKRAINE - 10 points

Men SP - 8th - 3 points
Ladies SP - 8th - 3 points
Pairs SP - 9th - 2 points
Dance SP - 9th - 2 points

10. GREAT BRITAIN - 9 points

Men SP - no entry - 0 points
Ladies SP - 9th - 2 points
Pairs SP - 8th - 3 points
Dance SP - 7th - 4 points

bigsisjiejie · Dec 4, 2013

I'm curious, who of the US top skaters per discipline has made a clear statement that if in the position to go, they will be willing to do the Team Event? And for that matter, the opposite--who has made a statement that they wouldn't want to do the Team event? I haven't followed closely but don't recall hearing any inclinations one way or another. Are we making assumptions here that certain skaters will automatically agree to do the Team event if they make the team as individuals/couples? Maybe cards are being played closed to vests right now.

I recently read the USFSA's statement/description of how the Team event participants would be selected and IIRC given the timing of required submittals of athlete participants for the Olympics to the ISU/IOC, the skaters essentially had to indicate their willingness or unwillingness to be considered for the Team event prior to US Nationals. The other interesting thing was that USFSA would give athletes selected for the individual events, the option to not participate in the Team event and wouldn't force anybody to do Team. Also depending on how the sequence of refusals/acceptances played out, could pull the US from the Team Competition entirely if the Fed couldn't field enough disciplines. Not sure I see much chance of this happening but they certainly left themselves an exit position.

Mathman · Dec 4, 2013

If I were a national federation I would not send anyone who refused to skate for the national team.

micnow · Dec 4, 2013

Mathman said:
But the Olympics is about waving the flag and earning as much hardware as possible for your country. Team first, individual second. :yes:

Is this your personal opinion? Or where it is written?

Mathman · Dec 4, 2013

This is my opinion.

I think that skaters should go to Sochi prepared to skate for their country. Not to lay up in bed for two weeks saying, "Oh, I need rest," and waiting for the maid to come in and fluff the pillows.

micnow · Dec 4, 2013

I think skaters, who more focus on the individual events, also skate for their countries, why not? If Chan would become olympic champion, he of course represents Canada and this OGM would belong to the canadian team (in addition to Chan himself) on the medal table as well.
The problem is, that some skaters - especially the (gold) medal contenders - believe, that the participation in the complete team event (SP and FS) could probable hurt their ambitions in the individual event later. This argument is not proofed (because there is no experience for this), but only the possibility is enough to let the skaters be more cautious because there could still be the risk of hurting the chances in individual competition.
I completely support V/T only to do the SP, because skating 4 times on 6 days on this level is really too much.

I am almost sure, that Patrich Chan will do the same and skip the FS. For Team canada it interesting to see, if the pairs like D/R and/or MT/M have the lobby to share SP and FS because I think also V/M in dance could have the intention to skip one part of the team event (and avoid the clash with D/W).

The Olympic team event

Mathman

enlight78

ImaginaryPogue

Mathman

ImaginaryPogue

Coriana

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be

Mathman

coppertop1

Mathman

ImaginaryPogue

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be

Mathman

Skater Boy

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be

bigsisjiejie

Mathman

micnow

Mathman

micnow

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