Is Akiko Suzuki a legitimate OGM contender now alongside Asada and Kim?

FlattFan · Dec 23, 2013

pangtongfan said:
Kim at Worlds last year scored 4 points higher in the LP than Suzuki did at her own Nationals and 3 points higher in TES. Sorry but Kim has the huge TES advantage even with 6 triples. I dont believe her base value is any lower, in fact isnt it still higher, and her GOEs on jumps and spins would blow Suzuki's away. Kim internationally ywould have a huge edge on Suzuki on PCS too (even though I wouldnt have it that way). In an international event Suzuki would never get those same scores (and I wish she would as I love her) and if anything Kim would score even higher duplicating the same skate (and her short program score would be way higher than Worlds last year, and much higher than Suzuki doing on the triple toe-triple toe). Kim would have to make multiple errors over the 2 programs to lose to Suzuki no matter how she skates unfortunately.

Kim's LP was perfect. And no doubt a perfect Kim would beat a perfect Akiko handily.
Question is, is Akiko a legitimate OGM? I would say yes if she can skate like she did here.
If she does, Kim will have to go clean. If Kim pops a triple lutz or fall on her triple flip, I don't think she can beat a clean and inspired Akiko. If she makes mistake on the lower BV triple or 2A, yes, she can still win.
Kim's 5 clean triples LP lost to Miki's 5 clean triples LP. It's about momentum as well.
If Akiko can dominate again at 4CC, she will not play second fiddle to Mao and Kim in Sochi.

Top 3 have much higher potential than Akiko. Mao, Akiko, and Carolina are super inconsistent, so it's thrilling to watch. Kim will be on the podium because she doesn't make that many mistakes generally.

Only 5 people worthy of an Olympics medal, Kim, Asada, Kostner, Akiko, and to an extent Wagner. The rest are just not worthy. They might get a medal fair and square if 3 of the top 5 make mistakes, but if top 5 are clean, they should be top 5. No Julia nonsense. No Adelina nonsense.

jaylee · Dec 23, 2013

jenaj said:
Go back a few pages and you will find a post saying Akiko's PCS should not be within 1 point of Yu Na's at Worlds last year and my reply that I think Akiko's performance/interpretation is better than Yu Na's. That is what started this discussion. The overall thread topic is whether Akiko can challenge for gold at Sochi. The consensus is that she cannot.

Yes, you said "Akiko's performance and interpretation are superior to Yu Na's, in my opinion. Akiko skates from the heart." Skating from the heart is not support for higher PCS, and you never provided any other substantial support for your argument, and that's the sort of thinking in this thread that I disagreed with--what you quoted from my post above.

pangtongfan said:
I am thrilled with her performances, scores (Nationals inflation and all) and victory but a gold medal at the Games would still be too much of a stretch realistically. I will be very happy if she can somehow medal at the Games. I do think she could have a chance at the Gold at the Worlds.

I pretty much agree with you. I will also be very happy if Akiko medals at the Olympics, just as I was very happy for her 2012 Worlds medal.

Her longevity and perseverance is an inspiration and has continued to amaze me. A 2014 World title would be an amazing way to end her career.

jaylee · Dec 23, 2013

FlattFan said:
If Akiko can dominate again at 4CC, she will not play second fiddle to Mao and Kim in Sochi.

Akiko is not going to 4CCs. Kanako is.

froh1981 · Dec 23, 2013

Ven said:
This was all about JSF trying to get Mao well above 150 heading into the Olympics, and the plan was a failure for her, but a success for Akiko. She should have confidence now.

I actually thought about this too. If Suzuki had skated after Mao, she wouldn't have gotten such a great FS score.
Now Suzuki became a national champion with the highest combined score. :laugh:

FlattFan · Dec 23, 2013

pangtongfan said:
At the 2011 Worlds yes Kim and Miki both did 5 triples but Kim almost fell on her triple lutz in the short (and still led a clean Miki without doing her usual 3-3 combo either), and the difference in the LP was a singled double toe at the end of a jump. She would have won just doing a double there, and Miki had an incredibly smart COP layout, really code whored for extra points like nobody else did. I see your point on momentum but remember Miki dominated that whole season. Apart from the GPF where she was 4th, but she didnt lose a LP all year long, and that was her only loss of the year. She beat a very good Asada at both Nationals and 4CCs too. Suzuki internationally hasnt done anything substantial this year, she didnt even make the GPF, and as another poster said she isnt even going to 4CCs so her next event will probably be the Olympics. Nothing like Miki in the 2010-2011 season. This will give her some momentum, but not all that much clout to international judges, just enough they wont totally forget her (as they might have otherwise) and she can be taken seriously for a medal if she skates well enough is all.

If Suzuki wins the OGM I would be thrilled for her but I honestly cant see it happening. A medal, yes that is possible now, and just that she has a chance is a terrific thing.

BTW when Suzuki skates that way she should undoubtably have the highest interpretation and performances scores of any women today (but probably wont).

If akiko wins the OGM, it would mean she delivers 2 stunning programs cleanly. I am ok with that vs. a messy Kim or Asada or Kostner.

Ven · Dec 23, 2013

pangtongfan said:
BTW when Suzuki skates that way she should undoubtably have the highest interpretation and performances scores of any women today (but probably wont).

Why do you think this? I don't think skating around with a genuine smile or happiness should grant the highest interpretation scores. It should be about interpreting the music and energy of the program in the moment, looking effortless and beautiful in the process. Akiko might do that, but I don't think it's merited just for looking happier than anyone else on the ice, although in her case that's not a bad thing for her either.

chloepoco · Dec 23, 2013

Ven said:
Come on, many people on GS have said that while Akiko's JNats was a great accomplishment, it wasn't even her best. Yuna's 2013 WC, whether she moves your heart or not, was one of the greatest performances of all time. Certainly in the COP era. It's kind of laughable for Akiko's PCS to be within 1 point of Yuna's from WC. Can you really put Les Mis and Akiko's JNats FS side by side and say their quality is within 2% scoring difference? That O program you guys just showed me was even significantly better.

This was all about JSF trying to get Mao well above 150 heading into the Olympics, and the plan was a failure for her, but a success for Akiko. She should have confidence now.

Ven, you are trying too hard to diminish Akiko's achievements. Leave it alone--believe it or not, there are some who do prefer Akiko to Yuna, and that's wonderful because they are both beautiful, talented skaters.

Ven · Dec 23, 2013

chloepoco said:
Ven, you are trying too hard to diminish Akiko's achievements. Leave it alone--believe it or not, there are some who do prefer Akiko to Yuna, and that's wonderful because they are both beautiful, talented skaters.

OK, let me put it a different way.

2012 NHK Trophy
Akiko SUZUKI PCS 62

2013 JNats
Akiko SUZUKI PCS 72

10 points higher than a superior skate of her own! :laugh:

chloepoco · Dec 23, 2013

Ven said:
OK, let me put it a different way.

2012 NHK Trophy
Akiko SUZUKI PCS 62

2013 JNats
Akiko SUZUKI PCS 72

10 points higher than a superior skate of her own!

Different competition; different judging panel.

CarneAsada · Dec 23, 2013

Ven said:
Why do you think this? I don't think skating around with a genuine smile or happiness should grant the highest interpretation scores. It should be about interpreting the music and energy of the program in the moment, looking effortless and beautiful in the process. Akiko might do that, but I don't think it's merited just for looking happier than anyone else on the ice, although in her case that's not a bad thing for her either.

Akiko does do that, and no one is saying she should get the highest IN scores for a genuine smile or happiness (lol).

Ven · Dec 23, 2013

chloepoco said:
Different competition; different judging panel.

You're right, this one was about propping up Mao's score and Akiko was the beneficiary. Mind you, she deserved to win, and she's a great skater, but her JNats performance was not one of the greatest of all time, as her score would indicate. She's even done significantly better herself.

Krislite · Dec 23, 2013

chloepoco said:
Different competition; different judging panel.

It was an ISU judging panel. International judges, like the one that will judge the Olympic games.

That's the point. Akiko had the skate of her life at NHK 2012 and yet lost against a flawed Mao Asada, before a panel of international judges. That's the more likely scenario that will play out when she skates against Mao or Yuna at Sochi.

In no way is her PCS getting above 70 in the long program, no matter how clean she is.

jenaj · Dec 23, 2013

jaylee said:
Yes, you said "Akiko's performance and interpretation are superior to Yu Na's, in my opinion. Akiko skates from the heart." Skating from the heart is not support for higher PCS, and you never provided any other substantial support for your argument, and that's the sort of thinking in this thread that I disagreed with--what you quoted from my post above.
.

Performance/interpretation are only two aspects of PCS and are necessarily subjective. Here are the IJS criteria:

Physical, emotional and intellectual involvement
Carriage (and body alignment - synchronized)
Style and individuality/personality
Clarity of movement
Variety and contrast
Projection

Effortless movement in time to the music
Expression of the music's style, character, rhythm
Use of finesse to reflect the nuances of the music

I would say skating from the heart and putting her soul into it fits within the first criteria listed. Projection is audience connection, which she has. She has style, personality, variety of movements, nice body carriage, skates well to the music, has been compared to Kwan in her artistry. Is that enough support for you?

minze · Dec 23, 2013

If the judging panel was trying to prop Mao, they should have scored her higher at the SP. Akiko is amazing, and she does move me with her performance, she skater with all she is got. Love her. She was over scored, but everyone is at nationals. My girl Mao had an ok night but she will be ready for Sochi. Some reports are saying that due to her back pain, she was not practicing her spins as much and guess she was probably taking it easy on jumps too after GP final.

minze · Dec 23, 2013

By the way, is Ok to like someone skating's more than Yuna Kim. Yuna is absolutely the whole pack gage great jumps and musicality, but the good thing about skating is that you have a lot to chose from. I know for some Yuna Kim fans (some) is offensive to compare her to anyone else because they find her so superior, but from time to time she has to be compared to someone.

chloepoco · Dec 23, 2013

Minze2001 said:
By the way, is Ok to like someone skating's more than Yuna Kim. Yuna is absolutely the whole pack gage great jumps and musicality, but the good thing about skating is that you have a lot to chose from. I know for some Yuna Kim fans (some) is offensive to compare her to anyone else because they find her so superior, but from time to time she has to be compared to someone.

:thumbsup:

Ven · Dec 23, 2013

Minze2001 said:
By the way, is Ok to like someone skating's more than Yuna Kim. Yuna is absolutely the whole pack gage great jumps and musicality, but the good thing about skating is that you have a lot to chose from. I know for some Yuna Kim fans (some) is offensive to compare her to anyone else because they find her so superior, but from time to time she has to be compared to someone.

Touché.

I certainly think Akiko is a great skater, I like her pure energy and connection with the audience. But in this sport you do have to compare skaters, and if you compare her to Yuna Kim, I would say the difference in their bodies stands out (not in a bad way for Akiko, like some skaters, but just because Yuna is such an outlier, very few if any can compare to her in this regard). I also notice the difference in flow between Yuna and Akiko, it's slightly bothersome to my tastes when Akiko snaps into her jumps or other movements. Yuna just does, as if there's no effort whatsoever at all. Akiko's jumps are more off-center, though in that 2012 NHK FS she did really well in that regard. Yuna's spins are far superior to Akiko, I think Suzuki's spins are among the worst I've seen of the top ladies.

All in all, I would put her in the top 5 favorites heading to Sochi. Long-shot at best for gold, but if she skates her very best, she definitely has a chance to make the podium and win a medal.

Ven · Dec 23, 2013

pangtongfan said:
Exactly. Nobody is saying Suzuki is a stronger technical skater than Kim, has stronger skating skills, or would deserve to win if both skated cleanly. Even the most ardent Suzuki fan wouldnt argue any of those things I am sure. However it is reasonable to prefer certain aspects of Suzuki's skating or heaven forbid enjoy her skating more on an emotional level personally than Kim's.

I never said Suzuki didn't deserve praise for being a moving skater or skating well. I just said, really she didn't deserve such a historically high score for what was not even her best performance.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Dec 23, 2013

I'm glad people still consider her a contender. A lot of naysayers (particularly on this board :sarcasm

had written her off since last year's Worlds. Glad she made them eat their words (and with her first national title at that!).

miki88 · Dec 23, 2013

I am happy Akiko got her national title at last. However, she is so inconsistent it's hard to predict how she would do in Sochi. In the past, when she had a great competition, she would not so well or do poorly in the next one. I actually feel it might benefit Akiko to skate her programs one more time before Sochi.

Is Akiko Suzuki a legitimate OGM contender now alongside Asada and Kim?

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