Kaetlyn Osmond, ANY kind of threat?

wallylutz · Jan 16, 2014

Sotnikova winning Europeans SP with virtually identical elements

Sotnikova's SP from Europeans : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IaBFxp84us

Osmond's SP from Canadians : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBIv8as6MCU

Note the planned and executed elements are identical but Osmond has a slight advantage in the levels as per the respective Tech Panel's assessment (both panels are ISU qualified fyi, including the referee and the controller)

Here is my $0.02 on their sbs comparison :

Osmond

Element GOE BV TV
3T+3T +1 8.20 8.90
3F +2 5.30 6.70
LSp4 +2 2.70 3.70
2A x +2 3.63 4.63
StSq4 +2 3.90 5.30
FSSp4 +1 3.00 3.50
CCoSp4 +1 3.50 4.00

SS: 7.75 TR: 8.50 PE: 8.50 CH: 8.75 IN: 8.75
TES = 36.73 PCS = 33.80
TSS = 70.53

Sotnikova

Element GOE BV TV
3T+3T +2 8.20 9.60
3F +2 5.30 6.70
CCoSp3 +2 3.00 4.00
2A x +2 3.63 4.63
LSp4 +1 2.70 3.20
StSq3 +2 3.30 4.30
FCSp4 +2 3.20 4.20

SS: 8.50 TR: 8.00 PE: 8.75 CH: 8.50 IN: 8.25
TES = 36.63 PCS = 33.60
TSS = 70.23

It should be noted that Osmond maintained a 2-0 record head to head vs. Sotnikova in their senior career so far. Suffice to say, based on these scores, they are still very close and either of them could take lead depending on how well they skate on any given day. That said, if they are still this close and Sotnikova just won the SP at Europeans using virtually the exact same layout, most importantly, the same jumping passes, then it stands to reason that doing only 3T+3T for the SP (as opposed to 3F+3T or 3Lz+3T) will not affect Osmond's placement very much either, provided that it is well executed.

sky_fly20 · Jan 16, 2014

Nationals vs International scoring ?
not a very good comparison at all :scowl:

amc987 · Jan 16, 2014

There is no way that Osmond gets close to 70 for the SP she did at Canadian Nationals if she's judged by an international panel. She'd be at 67 tops. I think Sotnikova was slightly overscored at Euros for what she did, especially as compared to Kostner, but her spins are way way better than Osmond's. I think it's a bit harsh to say that Kaetlyn would've been the pewter medalist at US Nationals. She would certainly have beaten Edmunds and Nagasu and Wagner given Ashley's 2 falls.

I still don't think she's a realistic medal threat in Sochi. Not enough technical content, and, even though she's an engaging performer, not high enough PCS.

chuckm · Jan 16, 2014

You CANNOT compare ISU scoring to Nationals scoring. Nationals scoring is highly inflated, especially the PCS scores.
Kaetlyn has NEVER received high 8s in PCS in international competition.

sky_fly20 · Jan 16, 2014

chuckm said:
You CANNOT compare ISU scoring to Nationals scoring. Nationals scoring is highly inflated, especially the PCS scores.
Kaetlyn has NEVER received high 8s in PCS in international competition.

saying Osmond's 70 inflated nationals to Sotnikova's internalional 70 at Euros are the same comparison is :laugh:

, might as well use Sotnikova's 72 Russian Nationals :scratch:
Osmond if she can even clean up skating outside of home ice (which has never happened) is looking at a 64-63 range score

Ravensque · Jan 16, 2014

So nice that Canadian fans have a skater in Ladies to defend, and so interesting that some American fans have a Canadian lady to bash lol. I'm hoping Kaetlyn is fully recovered and trained by Sochi to have the skate of her life.

chuckm · Jan 16, 2014

It's not bashing to be realistic. It's not realistic to say Osmond would have beaten anyone at US nationals since she did not compete there. It's not realistic to compare Osmond's Canadians SP to Sotnikova's Euros SP since they did not have the same tech/judge panels. It is never realistic to compare Nationals scores to ISU scores because ALL Nationals scores are inflated.

Gracie Gold is not going to get a score of 143+ internationally for a skate comparable to her Nationals FS, because she's not going to get high enough PCS scores for that to happen. It's not Gold-bashing to say that.

emdee · Jan 16, 2014

Ravensque said:
So nice that Canadian fans have a skater in Ladies to defend, and so interesting that some American fans have a Canadian lady to bash lol. I'm hoping Kaetlyn is fully recovered and trained by Sochi to have the skate of her life.

Am also enjoying the fun.....

Bashing is surely arising out of fear!

fairly4 · Jan 16, 2014

the top contenders are yuna , mao with carolina kostner
however the threats are any lady can knock them off provided they skate and knock the socks off . wow audience and judges

that could be i am partial to Gracie, Adelina, Julia, Kaetlyn, Akiko , Ashley , Kanako and possible Polina yes no expectation 1st olympics prove she belongs and Zijun if she is going.
basically the skaters who finished in top 10 has chance of winning and medaling. i even think mae bernice has a long shot if skates well and elene gedevanishilli if shae skates well.

if all skate well if can be anyone ball game.

but remember skating is political and judging is favor already for certain skaters to win , medal and finish in top 10. who they are i don't know but if skate way judges want them to they i think in their mind have place who they want ahead of time based on past results who are, and yes , money factor, rating factor, what they skater can bring to sport.

if goes for all displines pair, dance, mens, ladies and team.

sky_fly20 · Jan 16, 2014

fairly4 said:
basically the skaters who finished in top 10 has chance of winning and medaling. i even think mae bernice has a long shot if skates well and elene gedevanishilli if shae skates well.

what ?

pangtongfan · Jan 16, 2014

Why are people still calling Kostner a favorite and grouping her with Kim and Mao. Kostner has had a poor season, and now at Europeans skates cleanly and loses to both Sotnikova (doing the same jumps) and Lipnitskaia, and the event wasnt even in Russia where the Games will be. Wake up and smell the coffee people. Kostner is at best just one of a group of skating fighting to try and win a medal now, and more an underdog than a favorite to win one.

Icey · Jan 16, 2014

Re Kostner: we won't know until she skates BORElero.

spikydurian · Jan 16, 2014

emdee said:
Am also enjoying the fun.....

Bashing is surely arising out of fear!

Yeah, they started the thread to bash her because they FEAR her rise!

You know you are right on top challenging the best when some psycho fans start a campaign to put you down. These types of fans are harmful to their favourites. Their sh**t throwing will come back to haunt them some day.

bellafurr · Jan 16, 2014

Thank you Spiky Durian. You notice they didn,t bash A. LaCoste.

chuckm · Jan 16, 2014

The last time we saw Kaetlyn compete was 2013 WTT. Not much to fear there. She is a journeyman skater. Someday she may be a force to be reckoned with, but right now, she's not soup yet. It doesn't do the girl any favors when you pile expectations on her she's not ready to deliver.

Li'Kitsu · Jan 16, 2014

^ Oh, like you didn't do with Gracie?

I'm not seeing how Kaetlyn 'isn't soup yet'. She won't score as big as Gracie if she goes clean. She's not even close to being a medal candidate for Sochi (and nobody implied that here). But she's the kind of skater that gets the audience going and is loved by a lot of people (at least, everyone I know halfway more than as a forum nickname absolutly loves her). That's the better kind of soup already, if you're asking me.

And everything she'd need to be competitive with the other girls is a 3Lo. That's not easy, but definitly not impossible either.

chuckm · Jan 16, 2014

Kaetlyn has been competing in senior internationals for only a year and a half (she's been absent this fall). Her toughest combo is 3t+3t, which six ladies at Euros landed successfully in their SPs. Many elite ladies have 3f+3t, 3z+3t and even 3z+3lo in their arsenals, and most have 7 triples in their free skates, while Kaetlyn has only 6. Technically, she's a step behind, which is why I say she's not quite soup yet.

Every skater has a fan base, and I'm sure Kaetlyn has a huge fan base in Canada, which is hungry for a new star to replace Rochette. Kaetlyn seems to fit that role to a tee. Just give her time to recover from her injuries and make a real season debut.

Li'Kitsu · Jan 16, 2014

The last time I checked Germany and other european countries didn't belong to Canada. Kaetlyn definitly doesn't just have a canadian fan base.

Many elite ladies have the 3Lz-3Lo? One lady attempts it, that's it. The point difference between a 3T3T or 3F3T/3Lz3T is not that high (even if it should be), so a 3T3T keeps her in the running quite well if she can garner +GOE and PCS. And that she does (well, should do, at least).
Besides that, 7 triples alone is not the diciding factor for being soup yet or not (famous example I'm a little afraid to bring up: Yuna Kim. It doesn't get much more soup than her). She still has a lot of room to develop, but she already has her own style. Or did Valentina Marchei f.e. never became soup either?

chuckm · Jan 16, 2014

Valentina Marchei has been skating internationally as a senior lady for 10 years.

Kaetlyn has been on the senior circuit for 1.5 years. I don't know what her style is yet, and I'm not sure she does either. So far, she has presented herself as a coquette, but I hope there is more to her style than that, because that is rather limiting. YuNa Kim and Mao Asada have both presented many different types of music and characters, not just one.

I do not think Kaetlyn is primarily a jumper (like Miki Ando) but more a character skater. I'd just like to see her expand her cast of characters.

Coco Usagi · Jan 16, 2014

Threat as a medal contender? Not this Olympics unfortunately. However, if she finishes in the Top 10 in Sochi, I believe that she will be in 2018 (assuming she sticks around until then), just like Joannie Rochette before her.

Kaetlyn Osmond, ANY kind of threat?

wallylutz

sky_fly20

Match Penalty

amc987

chuckm

sky_fly20

Match Penalty

Ravensque

chuckm

emdee

fairly4

sky_fly20

Match Penalty

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

Icey

spikydurian

bellafurr

chuckm

Li'Kitsu

chuckm

Li'Kitsu

chuckm

Coco Usagi

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