Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics? | Page 14 | Golden Skate

Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics?

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”
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Dec 29, 2013
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Hey I know that Lipnitskaia is good but I was just implying that she is not super consistent remember this?http://youtu.be/r99vlgdi3l8

Look up Julia's comp results on wiki. Keep in mind she had an injury and growth spurt 2012-2013 and tell me in all fairness she isn't one of the most consistent of the girls in the hunt for a medal. I agree Julia should have had 2nd in Rostelecom cup. Could you ever humble yourself enough to make such claims against your favorite skater.

I'm not going to say Mao should have lost in GPF but I think her score was inflated by at least 4-5 pts which would have her under 200. Wouldn't be surprised to see Mao skate similar or worse making her finish under 200pts. I don't know if that is good enough for a medal period. Who knows she certainly has amazing footwork and interpretation. By my accounts the gap between the usual Mao and the usual Julia isn't that big. Now if Mao goes clean, what are the odds of this, she will lock silver up. Who knows....stranger things have happened with skaters less slkilled than Mao!
 

nagoya

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 30, 2014
She is super consistent comparing to most of the skaters. And,as disappointed i was at that moment, it was needed for her to have a bad skate. It is almost imposible to be perfect all the time, and she realised what she needs to work on. But about consistency - this season it is great apart from CoR LP. She hit her SP 5 times out of 6, and i would even say 6 our of 6 because at Nationals she did not fall, she had a step out. For the LP, 5 our of 6 (minor step out at Finlandia Trophy, but for LP I don't count it, and disaster at CoR). Well, I cannot think of anyone this season with that track record

YES! that is very true she is super consistent with her jumps but she is nowhere near the gracefulness of the big 3 in terms of performance. and yes her technical score is also very impressive no questions on that but watch the way she skates thru the ice and compare her to yuna mao and carolina do you think she is on the same level? I rest my case
 

MsLiinaLii

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 8, 2013
YES! that is very true she is super consistent with her jumps but she is nowhere near the gracefulness of the big 3 in terms of performance. and yes her technical score is also very impressive no questions on that but watch the way she skates thru the ice and compare her to yuna mao and carolina do you think she is on the same level? I rest my case
I might be the only one with that opinion, but I never liked Carolina and apart from her skating skills nothing excites me abput her. I'd rather watch Julia's LP five time in a row, than watch Caro's Bolero, even though everyone thinks it is a masterpiece. Mao must be clean or at least make minimum costly mistakes, otherwise I would put Julia ahead of her if Julia is clean.
 

elif

Medalist
Joined
Jan 28, 2010
yehey! she won european championships once! give her the olympic gold already!!!
BTW Carolina Kostner won it 5 times so might as well give her 5 olympic gold medals

yehey! Mao and Carolina are so graceful. Give them the olympic medals without skating!!!
 

Isabel_O'Reilly

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 30, 2013
Hey I know that Lipnitskaia is good but I was just implying that she is not super consistent remember this?http://youtu.be/r99vlgdi3l8

But the fact that you only have one program out of twelve to show says that she is super consistent. But let's take a look at the circumstances: Not only was she skating last after placing ahead of world champion Carolina, it was her first time skating at home (not just in Russia but at her home) for a international competition. She let her nerves get the better of her and then did not know what to do when she had never before practiced after having made such mistakes. She performed well according to the judges and me and nevertheless achieved a technical score still equal to the other top competitor there and equal or better than the best of many other skaters. Even with the TES Score being 15 points lower than at Skate Canada she won based on her technical lead, combined SP and LP. How many other skaters could miss two jumping passes and make mistakes on two(?) others and still have technical content that could win. I'm not saying she would (certainly not at the Olympics where everyone will bring their best), still it's impressive.

Then let's look at other skaters (not measuring against those who are as consistent as she is, or who have a triple axel) compared to Julia. Skater A usually hits 90% (for most skaters 90% is their clean, right?) of their planned content in the long program and a bad competition has them at 70%. Julia will blow them out of the water technically unless said skater has the skate of their life at the same time that she has 2-3 major mistakes.

At Europeans this year Julia had a slightly weird landing on her Axel, and instead of making any more mistakes she skated a program that had a higher base value than before and gave her a 1-point higher TES than at Skate Canda her previous technically perfect performance. I'm confident that even if she makes a costly mistake such a a fall on the triple-toe of the opening combination she be able to rally by doing something like at triple-loop, triple-toe or a triple lutz-triple toe-double toe combination.
 

MiRé

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
But the fact that you only have one program out of twelve to show says that she is super consistent. But let's take a look at the circumstances: Not only was she skating last after placing ahead of world champion Carolina, it was her first time skating at home (not just in Russia but at her home) for a international competition. She let her nerves get the better of her and then did not know what to do when she had never before practiced after having made such mistakes. She performed well according to the judges and me and nevertheless achieved a technical score still equal to the other top competitor there and equal or better than the best of many other skaters. Even with the TES Score being 15 points lower than at Skate Canada she won based on her technical lead, combined SP and LP. How many other skaters could miss two jumping passes and make mistakes on two(?) others and still have technical content that could win. I'm not saying she would (certainly not at the Olympics where everyone will bring their best), still it's impressive.

Then let's look at other skaters (not measuring against those who are as consistent as she is, or who have a triple axel) compared to Julia. Skater A usually hits 90% (for most skaters 90% is their clean, right?) of their planned content in the long program and a bad competition has them at 70%. Julia will blow them out of the water technically unless said skater has the skate of their life at the same time that she has 2-3 major mistakes.

At Europeans this year Julia had a slightly weird landing on her Axel, and instead of making any more mistakes she skated a program that had a higher base value than before and gave her a 1-point higher TES than at Skate Canda her previous technically perfect performance. I'm confident that even if she makes a costly mistake such a a fall on the triple-toe of the opening combination she be able to rally by doing something like at triple-loop, triple-toe or a triple lutz-triple toe-double toe combination.

Yuna did win Skate America in 2009 even with horrendous mistakes in her LP......
 

nagoya

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 30, 2014
But the fact that you only have one program out of twelve to show says that she is super consistent. But let's take a look at the circumstances: Not only was she skating last after placing ahead of world champion Carolina, it was her first time skating at home (not just in Russia but at her home) for a international competition. She let her nerves get the better of her and then did not know what to do when she had never before practiced after having made such mistakes. She performed well according to the judges and me and nevertheless achieved a technical score still equal to the other top competitor there and equal or better than the best of many other skaters. Even with the TES Score being 15 points lower than at Skate Canada she won based on her technical lead, combined SP and LP. How many other skaters could miss two jumping passes and make mistakes on two(?) others and still have technical content that could win. I'm not saying she would (certainly not at the Olympics where everyone will bring their best), still it's impressive.

Then let's look at other skaters (not measuring against those who are as consistent as she is, or who have a triple axel) compared to Julia. Skater A usually hits 90% (for most skaters 90% is their clean, right?) of their planned content in the long program and a bad competition has them at 70%. Julia will blow them out of the water technically unless said skater has the skate of their life at the same time that she has 2-3 major mistakes.

At Europeans this year Julia had a slightly weird landing on her Axel, and instead of making any more mistakes she skated a program that had a higher base value than before and gave her a 1-point higher TES than at Skate Canda her previous technically perfect performance. I'm confident that even if she makes a costly mistake such a a fall on the triple-toe of the opening combination she be able to rally by doing something like at triple-loop, triple-toe or a triple lutz-triple toe-double toe combination.

FYI mao beat julia in the recent GPF with a margin of 8 points with a terrible FS
 

nagoya

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 30, 2014
FYI mao beat julia in the recent GPF with a margin of 8 points with a terrible FS

and yes Mao might be inconsistent with her 3axels but not during olympics! she bombed all her programs on 2009-2010 but landed all her 3 3axels clean in vancouver.
What makes you think she is not prepared this time before her retirement with an exceptional performance for 2 years before sochi olympics (4 grand prix titles and 2 grand prix final titles) isnt that enough?
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
I don't think Julia is a threat for gold but she cold medal but she has to beat the likes of Wagner and probably more of a threat Gold plus the Japanese ladies, Yuna and Caro as well as hold off her teammate 0 not easy and if anything puberty will be a hindrance as she doesn't have the biggest or strongest jumps.
 

cooper

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
julia is a threat for gold as well as adelina. bet on it...and they have the momentum. it's up to yuna and mao how they will skate. these youngsters are hungry.
 

HalfTriple

Match Penalty
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Jun 8, 2010
Okay guys, calm down. We don't have to try to break down others' express opinions when they are presented with their own rationality. Various points were made and discussed, which concludes that what matters in Sochi is how the judging panel interprets comparative merits between skaters in the most persuasive manner. Although throughout the Grand Prix, the judging practice seems to have shown inconsistency that hampers us from reliably projecting the outcome because each competition was measured independently; This preexisting confusion aggravated by indiscriminate GOEs in the scoring system makes the numeric weight in each event almost irrelevant or impossible to make comprehensive comparisons. In fact it is possible for Julia to score as fairly as she did in Grand Prix and Euro while it is equally likely that she will be categorically labeled along with Polina or Li for that matter.
 

nagoya

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 30, 2014
Okay guys, calm down. We don't have to try to break down others' express opinions when they are presented with their own rationality. Various points were made and discussed, which concludes that what matters in Sochi is how the judging panel interprets comparative merits between skaters in the most persuasive manner. Although throughout the Grand Prix, the judging practice seems to have shown inconsistency that hampers us from reliably projecting the outcome because each competition was measured independently; This preexisting confusion aggravated by indiscriminate GOEs in the scoring system makes the numeric weight in each event almost irrelevant or impossible to make comprehensive comparisons. In fact it is possible for Julia to score as fairly as she did in Grand Prix and Euro while it is equally likely that she will be categorically labeled along with Polina or Li for that matter.

very well said
 

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
I'm not going to say Mao should have lost in GPF but I think her score was inflated by at least 4-5 pts which would have her under 200. Wouldn't be surprised to see Mao skate similar or worse making her finish under 200pts. I don't know if that is good enough for a medal period. Who knows she certainly has amazing footwork and interpretation. By my accounts the gap between the usual Mao and the usual Julia isn't that big. Now if Mao goes clean, what are the odds of this, she will lock silver up. Who knows....stranger things have happened with skaters less slkilled than Mao!

I felt Julia's score (especially the second mark) have been inflated more than 5pts in recent competitions. It's all a matter of opinion. Her usual performances weren't getting her PCS near 70 and scores near 140 until Europeans. She was having pretty solid performances all season, but her recent scores increased tremendously. She also did skate better but not by that much, in my opinion.
 

andyjo24

Medalist
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
I felt Julia's score (especially the second mark) have been inflated more than 5pts in recent competitions. It's all a matter of opinion. Her usual performances weren't getting her PCS near 70 and scores near 140 until Europeans. She was having pretty solid performances all season, but her recent scores increased tremendously. She also did skate better but not by that much, in my opinion.

I agree that Julia's "true" PCS score should be around a 63. IMO, her PCS will be downgraded relative to Euros due to the much higher-quality of skating at the Olympics (Compared to Mao, Yu-na, Caro, Akiko, Gold, Julia's skating will look small in comparison...). My estimate is around a 65-66 for a clean performance (2-3 more points for home-town advantage).
 

Isabel_O'Reilly

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 30, 2013
If both Lipnitskaia and Asada is not perfect this will be the result
LIPNITSKAIA- cup of russia 2013 http://youtu.be/r99vlgdi3l8 Free skate = 118.56
ASADA - Skate America 2013 http://youtu.be/VS90gggO56Q FREE SKATE = 131.37

These are FACTS! with proven Videos , even if Lipnitskaia will not much do error than this video she will still not get close to 131.37 most probably on the mid 120's
Yes Lipnitskaia is very good for her age but she is still human and in need of more polishing to level with yuna and mao .
what is wrong with this thread? do you guys forget how many world championship medals that yuna and mao have won? with yuna having the world record and mao having the record of most grand prix titles?
Lipnitskaia is still young, give her some time eventually she will be on top, not just now. Her best result will probably bronze if she beat costner and suzuki, well, she beat them before so I can see no reason why she cant beat them now in her own turf

But won't she skate better than at cup of Russia? That was the first time she made mistakes like that in her long program in an international competition. Now that she has experienced that she knows what to do in such a situation. I think even if she makes a mistake she will pull it together for the rest of the program.

Her scores for the FS have been 125, 131, 118, 125, and 139, her average is 128.18 points (if COR is disregarded as an aberration then it's 130.59). Her scores for the SP are 65, 66, 72, 66, and 69, her average is 68.24 (if Finlandia is disregarded then it's 68.93) Her total average score is 199.52 points. I don't know if anyone cares about these but the score shows that for her usual skate she will come in third, for her best she could come in second, and for the skate of her life plus a significant mistake from Yuna and/or Mao she could place 1st. Basically exactly what I thought before I crunched the numbers.
 

Isabel_O'Reilly

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 30, 2013
I might be the only one with that opinion, but I never liked Carolina and apart from her skating skills nothing excites me abput her. I'd rather watch Julia's LP five time in a row, than watch Caro's Bolero, even though everyone thinks it is a masterpiece. Mao must be clean or at least make minimum costly mistakes, otherwise I would put Julia ahead of her if Julia is clean.

:clap::clap:
 

andyjo24

Medalist
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
But won't she skate better than at cup of Russia? That was the first time she made mistakes like that in her long program in an international competition. Now that she has experienced that she knows what to do in such a situation. I think even if she makes a mistake she will pull it together for the rest of the program.

That we don't know until the actual competition. Julia has done extremely well so far, and I respect her for that, but she has had zero experience at senior worlds/ Olympics. Plus the fact that the Olympics are in Russia, that might put extreme pressure on her and make her crumble like in COR. But then again, if she goes clean, she will be rewarded more.
 

andyjo24

Medalist
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
I might be the only one with that opinion, but I never liked Carolina and apart from her skating skills nothing excites me abput her. I'd rather watch Julia's LP five time in a row, than watch Caro's Bolero, even though everyone thinks it is a masterpiece. Mao must be clean or at least make minimum costly mistakes, otherwise I would put Julia ahead of her if Julia is clean.

If Caro goes clean, I would prefer her Bolero any day to Julia's FS. But the possibility of her going clean.....?:think: idk...
 
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