Can Lipnitskaya close the gap on Mao & Kim in time for the Olympics?

Sam-Skwantch said:

??? :think:???

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I feel the exact same way about your posts on Julia as well.

RABID said:

I think it is a mistake to make assumptions based on how things WERE circa 2012/2013 season. There is a sea-change happening between the old guard and new guard and don't think the judges and other officials aren't aware of this and prepared to help it along. To this point YuNa seems to have stayed above it all, but if you think the judges aren't going to hammer YuNa if she gives them the opportunity then you are just whistling past the graveyard. If she gives them an excuse, they'll pounce like a cat on a mouse. Conversely, if the youngsters like Julia give similar performances like they recently did they are sure to be well rewarded. Be prepared to see similar scores in Sochi.

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I agree with this. Also, due to injury, Yuna did not skate in the GPs. She did manage to skate in one Senior B event and win impressively - but she still had some mistakes and quite frankly she didn't seem as 'crisp' as she did last year. But who knows? This Olympics is going to be very interesting especially in the ladie's events. All kinds of questions are going to be answered on the night of the ladie's SP.

bebevia said:

I don't have an issue with wonderkids winning. However, I have to admit that I was glad Yuna missed the Turin cut by months and did not have to compete against Michelle. I'm sure Tara's glad too.

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Why would Tara be glad the Yuna didn't compete in Torino? Her Olympics were in Nagano 1998.

Layfan said:

But there's not guarantee that Mao and Yuna will be at their best and if they leave the door open Julia more than has the chops to blow right in.

Friendly suggestion that you check your skating history.

But I get what you mean, as I too can't help but root for the veterans. It always takes me a while to warm up to most skaters. I'm sure Tara, however, has zero problems with wonderkids winning the Olympics.

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Tara said flat out during Europeans coverage that she 'just loves her' when referring to Julia. I think she'd be pleased as punch if Lipnitskaya won the Games.

Panini said:

Why is "looking like a little girl" considered a flaw? Last I checked, figure skating is a sport, not a beauty pageant. Why does Julia need a womanly figure (a "mature" body) to be worthy of certain marks? If a skater's appearance is being taken into account when scoring, should the judges start giving bonuses to skaters with pretty faces too? Or take off marks to girls with less attractive facial features?

I'm NOT saying clean Julia should beat clean Yuna or even slightly flawed Yuna. I just find the logic of "Julia still looks like a kid so she doesn't deserve high marks" totally absurd.

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So do I. Quality of movement should be judged not age. Look at the young Gordeeva. Just the way that she held her arms was a study in natural grace. The same could be argued about a skater's build. Should a long, lithe skater score higher than one with a shorter, stockier build? Hopefully we've moved past that. Julia doesn't skate like a junior out there and I very much disagree with those who say that she does. Now someone like Polina Edmunds or Elena Radionova? That's another story, especially Edmunds. Both still look unfinished and need some polishing up.

Between Julia and Adelina, having watched them both live back to back at Euros, I would say Julia did great job, Sotnikova was looking worried and Julia looked more involved in the program, she even did eye contact with audience before her steps, of course Adelina she is the better skater and she is two years older but she was not the better competitor that day. She was skating nervously. Julia's jumps also dont look small live and her programs works the crowd A LOT. I was not such a fan but she has a wow factor and that might help her in Sochi too.

IF (!!) judges go back to the original idea of COP, a flawless Julia would never beat a flawless or slightly failing Yu-Na, Mao or Costner. Her jumps are fully rotated (means itself GOE:0), but low and has rather small ice coverage during her airposition.

All of her jumps should be scored about 0 or 1 points in GOE ( a full rotation give no plus point in GOE it is only effects the base value).

A good jump of Yu-Na, Mao, Kostner, even Gold and Sotnikova would worths at least 2-3 GOE points, because besides the rotation they also has its hights and lengths of the jump with great ice coverage during the air-position.

If judges decide to take this advantage away from Julia's competitor, she can win.

Anyway Julia can win fair'n'sqare if she is flawless (she has incredible consistency) and Yu-Na, Mao and the others falling...

I have a high hope to Julia. Of course if she will win, there is a possibility to retire than, especially because she is not yet over of full puberty. It would be a great loss for all of the fans of this sport....
I've seen the Euro in the arena, and I agree she has the "wow" factor. Her skating is touching very emotional even if she is not "emoting" which is a given talent. I loved her.

BUT: if I look the WAY of skating and jumping my vote goes to Kostner. She skates incredibly alive. She couldn't win because she made errors. But without errors she would be miles ahead of the other Europeans (not Yu-Na in my book) even with a little bit more "easy" jump layout. She is gorgeous, I could validate the very high 5Components scores she always got after witnessed her alive!

The scores now should't be compared to before imo. before, scoring 70+ in sp is really hard and now, skaters get 70+ in short programs easily... remember yuna scored 70+ in 2007wc? It is a big accomplishment but it is not really hard to achieve it now... The PCS scores now are given much higher than before so skaters getting 200+ is easier than before... for example, do you think julia's sp this year is near the quality of yuna's el tango de roxanne...(no offence, everyone has their own opinions)

@SashaSpins

My ??? Stemmed from my confusion over what you meant. I was not disagreeing with you. I thought maybe you were saying that you once adored Julia but now you don't. If that's what you were saying I was just wondering why. I thought we were both Julia fans...I know I can be a bit overly pro Julia which has really not been received well at times even in pro Julia threads but I make no apologies or hide my view that she is the most exciting and beautiful skater to watch(in my eyes) I'm really glad that you too agree that looking a certain age is not a factor to ever be reflected in the scores. I really hate when people pressure girls to look and act older only to, at some magic point, yet maybe less discussed, be desired to be young again. Obsurd and infuriating not to mention offensive. I for one find her less is more approach very tasteful with not only her make-up but also her facial expressions which are more heartbreaking than anything else, even in her SP.

Back to topic: Do you think Julia has closed the gap on Mao? I say yes. Not so sure about Yuna and she is a bit of a mystery at this point to me at least. I think silver would be great for Julia and satisfy my 'Julia bias' and have me pumped for 2018 when she will be 4 yrs improved and still under 20. She will only be 23 in 2022 and I contend she very well may keep her body type. I work with skaters well into their 20's with a similar body type. Not sure why everyone thinks she is doomed. The girls I know aren't on a world class work out regiment or as focused on the circus stretches Julia must work on for at least an hour a day but now I'm off topic again.

Article on Lipnitskaya's win at the European Championships. Reads:-

Russian Julia Lipnitskaia took the gold at 2014 European championships and became the first European lady since Norwegian Sonja Henie (1931) to win the title in her debut appearance.

“My head is still spinning and I think I might faint right now. I skated 100 percent of myself. I did two difficult combinations the second half, so the base value went up. I never skated this variation of my free skate program in practice.” the new European champion said in a press conference.

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bigdeal said:

IF (!!) judges go back to the original idea of COP, a flawless Julia would never beat a flawless or slightly failing Yu-Na, Mao or Costner. Her jumps are fully rotated (means itself GOE:0), but low and has rather small ice coverage during her airposition.

All of her jumps should be scored about 0 or 1 points in GOE ( a full rotation give no plus point in GOE it is only effects the base value).

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Height and distance is only one factor (out of 8) in jump GOE.

jenaj said:

Height and distance is only one factor (out of 8) in jump GOE.

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I just posted this on another thread but seams relevant here too.

Here is how GOE on jumps is awarded as I understand it.

FOR + 1 : 2 bullets
FOR + 2 : 4 bullets
FOR + 3 : 6 or more bullets

1) unexpected / creative / difficult entry
2) clear recognizable steps/free skating movements immediately preceding element
3) varied position in the air / delay in rotation
4) good height and distance
5) good extension on landing / creative exit
6) good flow from entry to exit including jump combinations / sequences
7) effortless throughout
8) element matched to the musical structure

A reasonably honest judge should very easily find 2 bullets on most of Julia's jumps. Her 3t often goes higher than her first jump which qualifiers her for that bullet, like it or not, on those jumps at least. How people think she should only receive 0 GOE is what's ridiculous on this thread. I personally see +2 on most if you factor in her no set up entries on some of her toughest jumps, and effortless transitions out.

Please let me advocate a point of view very different from
the majority of opinions in this thread.

Could someone even imagine 5 months ago the title of this
thread taken seriously? Noone, for sure.

Could a cartoon person sistematically descibed here: a small girl with consistent
tiny jumps (in addition, full of wrong edges), mediocre scating skills and lacking
artistry, - build up an army of passionate supporters, attract hundreds of thousands
people whatching here programs in youtube, get standing ovations in Canada and Budapest,
and win internationally face to face against most of licenced medal contenders - Gold,
Suzuki, Wagner, Costner, Sotnikova? Surely not.

The main point missed by many here is that there are different ways to understand
"artistic impression", let me use this outdated term. Some prefer to see a kind of
butterfly gracefully flying over the ice (Asada, Yuna), but other enjoy seeng a program with
a clear dramatic script. Where you see an "overdreama", other will see an unforgetable requiem
to perished ancestors, or even if he is not directly concerned, will hardly hold tears. I know many
such people. For those, Yulia's LP is way ahead of what we have seen from Mao and Yuna.
Well, how it should result in scoring? For me, Yulia's PCS shoud be very uneven. There might be both
tens for presentation-interpretation and sevens for some skating stuff. Yet the scorers are not
likely to put uneven marks and they will be putting eights and nines. Anyway, even if a referee prefers
"butterfly style" it will be nearly impossible for him to put low artistic marks given an
ovation around. It is very realistic that Yulia will get the same PCS score as at the EC, end even
slightly more. By the way, this score is nothing special, Sotnikova did the same.
Needless to say, that personally I don't find this score inflated unlike people above. This is just
a difference of artistry perceptions.

For technical skills, let me stress that Yulia accumulates a huge score just by performing
an excellent set of jumps. And she showed at EC that in critical situation she may push it
even higher by moving cascades in the second part. This is pure arithmetics, upto 75 points,
nothing to argue about. Then she gets a deductions for wrong edges etc. Let me ask, are you
sure that the edges are really wrong? Her coach who is known as a humble and honest person
swears that the edge is right but preparation phase of Yulia's jump is unusually short and it is
uneasy to determine the edge. What if she is right and Russian federation will make a pressure
on scorers to watch replays 5 times until they acknowledge the right edge. If Yulia would not have a
deduction it would not necessary mean a corruption sign. Again, I dont see particular inflation
in EC TES protocols, there were a lot of low GOE for jumps you dislike.

All this said, I estimate Yulia's potential score at 5-7 points above what she received in EC.
To the date, there is no gap at all when comparing Yulia and Mao Asada.
Yuna must be on her record level to confidently overscore Yulia. I could only watch one of her programs
in Korean nationals. She lands her jumps as a godess but otherwise it was not an unreachable heaven
level.

Dixit

jenaj said:

Height and distance is only one factor (out of 8) in jump GOE.

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Yes, but which other 6 factors are better in the case of Julia than of Kostner, Sotnikova, or Yu-na??
(I didn't mentioned Mao because she DO HAS technical problems with some of her jumps edg-wise and rotational-wise).
Plus all Julia Lutzes had an edge call in the European....

She looked much better watching alive in the Arena than I did expect, and she was THE reason to watch the whole European but still she cannot win if everybody clean.

bigdeal said:

Yes, but which other 6 factors are better in the case of Julia than of Kostner, Sotnikova, or Yu-na??
(I didn't mentioned Mao because she DO HAS technical problems with some of her jumps edg-wise and rotational-wise).
Plus all Julia Lutzes had an edge call in the European....

She looked much better watching alive in the Arena than I did expect, and she was THE reason to watch the whole European but still she cannot win if everybody clean.

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Which of the other 7 factors do you think she should should receive no credit for? She only needs two for +1 and four for +2.

jenaj said:

Which of the other 7 factors do you think she should should receive no credit for? She only needs two for +1 and four for +2.

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If you read the guidelines for judges on awarding GOE it states that the bullets that I posted above...(2 bullets +1 , 4 bullets +2 or 6 bullets +3)... Is nearly a suggestion and at the judges discretion. Is there an elephant in the room? So it's true Julia could satisfy 5 bullets and receive -1 GOE and earn the applause of many of the posters above. Look at the euros protocols and you'll see clear and present unfair practices evoked. You can see that some judges clearly wanted Adelina to win and dinged the crap out of Julia. This did go both ways and some gave Julia overmarks too, I saw a suspicious 10 for Julia's interpretation or something(feel free to correct but I'm not looking protocols up again).

I'll reiterate that I see nothing in the rules/guidelines on applying GOE that suggests she cannot receive +2 GOE on all jumps and even a few +3 even while confronting the ridiculous notion that her jumps are too low. This isn't a pole vaulting competition thank god. I think Julia scores a 202-207 in Olympics and contends for all medals. Just prepare your defense if she scores a +210 in Sochi, I am. The masses have already cried foul and set the table for various defense in the event that Julia comes in and steals the heart of the whole world and finds her self decorated in gold. I think people would actual defend a sketchy Yuna like in the Golden Spin over a clean Julia. I would argue that Julia would not consider Euros clean and if she goes clean it will be an improvement upon that even. Love this kid!!!

bigdeal said:

Yes, but which other 6 factors are better in the case of Julia than of Kostner, Sotnikova, or Yu-na??

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See bullets 1,6,7

She doesn't have to be better than ,say Caro, on exits to still get points for it. With this logic would most of the rest of the field get awful marks in relation to Julia throwing down superior spins. I think they all can and do get very positive marks on spins yet no-one is as good as Julia. That is not a slight but a mere fact. I actually like Adelina or Gracie's spins. Not so much for Yuna or Mao but that doesn't make them sub-par does it?

Yes there was exactly one 10 in LP. I find it pretty adequate for *this* program - given the public perception of it (don't want to repeat my motivation in the post above).

Of course, her LP in EC was not considered clean by Yulia team - due to a bad first 2A jump that flipped the entire jump order and pushed her to risky adventures.

Certainly Russian Federation would prefer to see their flagship Adelina upper than Yulia. I would not be much surprised to know one day that it was Russian scorer
who gave Yulia lowest marks.

Sam-Skwantch said:

See bullets 1,6,7.

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Apparently people have different definition of flow and effortless.
To me, she doesn't have much flow. Flow = Shizuka jumpd. Effortless = yuna.
A clean jump shouldn't earn positive goe. An exceptional jump should.

But let's stretch the definition of flow and effortless some more for Sochi.

malif said:

Certainly Russian Federation would prefer to see their flagship Adelina upper than Yulia. I would not be much surprised to know one day that it was Russian scorer
who gave Yulia lowest marks.

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I thought the same thing. The same judge that dinged Julia showered Adelina with great marks. I've often wondered if Julia and Eteri feel like they have been kind of alone the last few months. Even though Julia, more so than Adelina, has always worn her Russia jacket in Kiss and Cry and especially in interviews. Adelina not always or much less understated.

FlattFan said:

Apparently people have different definition of flow and effortless.
To me, she doesn't have much flow.

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Her 2a-3t-2t meets the flow requirement. Did you not read that it's flow throughout the sequence. If you can't at least give her a +1 than I'd say your just biased. Seems fair to at least give her that. I'd go +2 on most of this sequence all season with a +3 only in Canada. I still don't know how she landed that first 2a in the Euro's LP. I really wish I could have gone out and got a good look at the ice where it happened. That was quite the bizarre jump, I can only wonder how bizarre the ice looked.

Sam-Skwantch said:

Her 2a-3t-2t meets the flow requirement. Did you not read that it's flow throughout the sequence.

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What is flow?
Can tiny jumps have any flow? Yes, it glides out 10 cm, but nothing like the flow coming out of Yuna's jumps or Caro's jumps or Shizuka's jumps. Now that's flow.

When a jump suddenly get +2 and doesn't look anything near spectacular, then you're doing it wrong.

To answer the original question posed: I'd say she has already closed the gap quite well according to the eyes of the judges.
I am not sure whether the judges at the Olympics will be significantly different from the European or other competitions and whether that would affect the PCS scores.

Great point about how the judges have been closing the gap all season. How though will ISU judges feel about "Send in the Clowns". If she performs it like at Korean Nationals I don't see it higher than 75. If she goes much higher and puts on a good SP, than it will be lights out everyone. Julia has since closed the gap on Mao...not on Yuna though. Especially if Yuna gets over scored herself which is in itself possible too, is it not.