# Thread: Current Sochi Odds

1. 0
Odds according to PaddyPower Irish bookmaker.

2. 0
Originally Posted by hybfc
The overall probability for ladies is 130.7%...
That's because they want to make a profit.

3. 0
Jason Brown 16/1

Seems like with the moves on Gracie and Jason in recent days, American \$\$'s finally starting to get interested.

4. 0
I recall in Vancouver Kim's was at around 1/2, with Asada's and Rochette's both at around 8/1-9/1. So it seems slightly less favorable of Kim and a bit better for Asada this time around.

5. 0
Originally Posted by thinspread
I recall in Vancouver Kim's was at around 1/2, with Asada's and Rochette's both at around 8/1-9/1. So it seems slightly less favorable of Kim and a bit better for Asada this time around.
So, I thought I would provide links to betting data, as well as make the information easier to understand, especially for the, um, quantitatively challenged .

Here's a link for a summary of the betting odds provided by a range of bookmakers: http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-ol...g-women/winner

For the analysis below, I used PaddyPower's betting odds, as they are one of the largest bookmakers, and they provide the most comprehensive oddsmaking for ladies figure skating.

The betting implied probabilities (calculated as "Wager/(Payout + Wager)") for winning gold in 2014 in Sochi:

Yuna 58%
Mao 25%
Caro 11%
Julia 11%
Gracie 4%

These are somewhat higher than the true mathematical probabilities, as the bookmakers build in a 30% spread for themselves. But the relative positions are similar.

The "true" implied probabilities (Betting Implied Probability/1.30) for winning in Sochi 2014 are:

Yuna 45%
Mao 19%
Caro 8%
Julia 8%
Gracie 3%

----------------------------------------------------------------------

By way of comparison, the odds in Vancouver for Yuna were 1/2, and for Mao were 11/2 (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/olym...-favorite.html).

The betting implied probabilities for winning gold in 2010 in Vancouver:

Yuna 67%
Mao 15%

The "true" implied probabilities for gold in Vancouver 2010 were:

Yuna 51%
Mao 11%

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Conclusions:

-According to this particular measure of "the Wisdom of Crowds", Yuna is a bit less of an overwhelming favorite for Sochi than she was for Vancouver at 45% vs. 51%, but that is at the margins. In the larger scheme of things, she is still clearly the overwhelming favorite.

-Mao is still the leading challenger to Yuna by quite a ways. Her betting probability has even incrementally improved since Vancouver.

-Caro and Julia are tied in the third spot, but measurably behind Mao.

-Interestingly, Gracie is not a favorite among bettors.

On to Sochi, where the box is finally opened, the probability waves collapse to reveal a singular reality, and we get to see whether the cat is alive and well.

6. 0
^ Excellent! You're a scientist.

7. 0
Updated odds:

8/11 Yuna Kim

6/1 Julia Lipnitskaia
8/1 Carolina Kostner

12/1 Kanako Murakami
14/1 Gracie Gold

25/1 Akiko Suzuki
25/1 Ashley Wagner

8. 0
Wow, Adelina is now the 2nd favorite after Yuna. What do the odd-makers know that we don't?^^

9. 0
Originally Posted by YunaBliss
Wow, Adelina is now the 2nd favorite after Yuna. What do the odd-makers know that we don't?^^
One of two things:

-someone at PaddyPower made a career-ending mistake somewhere along the line. Notice that it sticks out like a sore thumb when compared to the odds at all the other bookies.

-some crazy Russian billionaire bet a huge amount on Adelina at PaddyPower, forcing the bookmaker to shorten the odds to compensate .

10. 0
The final odds for the ladies competition:

even Yuna Kim

6/4 Julia Lipnitskaia

14/1 Carolina Kostner

25/1 Akiko Suzuki

35/1 Gracie Gold

50/1 Kanako Murakami

66/1 Polina Edmunds
66/1 Ashley Wagner

80/1 Li Zijun

11. 0
You don't do odds after the SP?

12. 0
Originally Posted by usethis2
You don't do odds after the SP?
Here are the odds after the SP:

1/3 Yuna Kim

9/2 Carolina Kostner

25/1 Julia Lipnitskaia

50/1 Gracie Gold

100/1 Ashley Wagner
100/1 Kanako Murakami
100/1 Akiko Suzuki
100/1 Polina Edmunds
100/1 Zijun Li

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