Abbott being ripped and torn to pieces by U.S. Media

Bluebonnet said:

I don't think it was possible to reward a quadless national champion when Abbott did so great in SP with a 4T-3T and a clean LP with a 4T.

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They could have disqualified Jeremy during the FS but the blowback would have been huge. I think Dornbush would have been gifted a strong enough score to beat Jeremy if he hadn't fallen apart in the FS. Jason Brown ended up winning the FS due to GOE and PCS that were far beyond his international scores.

Jeremy would never get 99 anywhere else. Hello, even Hanyu with superior jump and superior PCS only got 97 at the Olympics.
His real score probably would have put him about 3rd or 4th at Nationals.

Max was screwed. His score at Nationals was in line with his score in international events.

In term of inflation, Jason got it, Jeremy got it, Max didn't, Dornbush didn't.

FlattFan said:

Jeremy would never get 99 anywhere else. Hello, even Hanyu with superior jump and superior PCS only got 97 at the Olympics.
His real score probably would have put him about 3rd or 4th at Nationals.

Max was screwed. His score at Nationals was in line with his score in international events.

In term of inflation, Jason got it, Jeremy got it, Max didn't, Dornbush didn't.

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Dornbush got inflation in the SP. No way would a transitionless program like that have scored 92.04 internationally.

emma said:

But for me, the problem is not or was not selecting him for the SP (especially given the way he rocked it nationals, but also given the practice reports). For me, the bigger problem is having the team event first. In my gut, I just feel the team event would be so much better last; you know, let them all skate on 'fresh legs' and in nervous bodies with an equal amount of preparation and exposure. Then, let the team event be an intense moment of repeating exellance, of redemption, of proving something....for one and all.

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I agree! Having it last may lessen some of the pressure. And skaters wouldn't have to worry about being perfect in the team event and possibly faltering the individual.

Interesting thread. Jermey's skate is definitely cause to a lot issues. Some of my own thoughts:
- Yes Jeremy's a bit of a 'villain' right now. In team competitions people are quick to point out black sheep. (Alicia Sacramone?)
- What if the US still wins bronze (as I very much hope), he gets an Olympic medal for *that*?
- Saying his disastrous performance was ultimately a good thing for himself is terrible.
- As to Jason, I don't think there's much he can do. I assume this works like the individual event and SP scores are added to FS scores? Jeremy's like 15 points behind iirc, that's a lot to make up.
- As to the Ashley narrative, I really hope it'll be a story of ultimate redemption tomorrow. I hate that she's under such pressure right niw. There are indeed people that point to her as the villain while Jeremy's skate makes cleaar that selecting a strong Olympic team is hard, nationals isn't always the best indicator. (Happy about her practice reports and looks like she and davis/white and c/s are all attending to oc - hope it gives them a nice boost!)
- The Team event should be at the end of the games.. It does create unequal footing for the individual event.

Trewyn said:

Interesting thread. Jermey's skate is definitely cause to a lot issues. Some of my own thoughts:
- Yes Jeremy's a bit of a 'villain' right now. In team competitions people are quick to point out black sheep. (Alicia Sacramone?)
- What if the US still wins bronze (as I very much hope), he gets an Olympic medal for *that*?
- Saying his disastrous performance was ultimately a good thing for himself is terrible.
- As to Jason, I don't think there's much he can do. I assume this works like the individual event and SP scores are added to FS scores? Jeremy's like 15 points behind iirc, that's a lot to make up.
- As to the Ashley narrative, I really hope it'll be a story of ultimate redemption tomorrow. I hate that she's under such pressure right niw. There are indeed people that point to her as the villain while Jeremy's skate makes cleaar that selecting a strong Olympic team is hard, nationals isn't always the best indicator. (Happy about her practice reports and looks like she and davis/white and c/s are all attending to oc - hope it gives them a nice boost!)
- The Team event should be at the end of the games.. It does create unequal footing for the individual event.

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Agreeance about putting it at the end of the Games. Not the beginning.

Luckily, Jeremy's SP score will not affect Jason. Jason does not have to "make up" anything. They take the placements of all 4 entrants for each country. Add them up (10 for first, 9 for second, etc). Top 5 advance to the FS, with those placement scores (not the ACTUAL scores) carrying over. So all jason has to worry about is doing his best, and placing as high in the FS as possible. It doesn't matter how much he wins or loses any individual "placing" -- if he gets 3rd by 20 pts or .5 pts, he still gets the 3rd place ordinal (GAWD, i want ordinals back), and gets 8 pts for third place in the FS.

TontoK said:

Doris... concerning World's:

You bet he's going! Here's the narrative... He has ONE LAST chance to redeem himself on the international stage.

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TontoK, so if, in the end it really is Jeremy and Max in Japan, between Jeremy-will-he-or-won't-he-deliver and Max seemingly not receiving really big international scores this season, what do you think are the chances of them: A) regaining three spots, B) holding on to two spots, or C) ending up with one spot for 2015 Worlds?

semosk8tfan said:

And then we go down to ONE man for Worlds in 2015.

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I am sure this won't happen; if it does the world is doomed! It's all over.

IN fact if certain people win medals there is a ch ance it might be easier for US to regain three spots (just keep hoping Chan and Dai win medals) lol

bekalc said:

The problem is not everyone has equal opportunity to compete international competitions. You have to earn points to get onto the Senior GP. Polina Edmonds due to USFSA's screw up didn't get an international event (except for a B event after nationals last year) until this year. So she only did juniors. She performed consistently there and put out the highest TES element of all the US ladies in the free, with one less element.

Is it fair to punish her for not having international events? I don't think it is. I think we do need to make it possible for newer skaters to get out there. Max Aaron did well last year too no international events for them.

I am though less willing to see skaters like Abbott (and I will give her to a lesser extent Nagasu) multiple opportunities when they are very inconsistent, have had their chances and not delivered.

The above is why I find the Nagasu deserves on body of work to make it over a Polina unfair. (And some where arguing this for Jeremy in past competitions). Nagasu/Abbott's inconsistent is why I'm fine with letting others pass them at Nationals when they skate well.

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.

For juniors making the transition to the senior circuit, they can use their JGP, JW events to qualify for the 75%. There can be some built in flexibility to be fair to them. This method will still favor a more consistent international skater over one who gets unnerved easily in an international arena when selection for Olympics and Worlds takes place.

Of course Nationals are still Nationals, so domestic popularity for skaters like Abbot and Nagasu will rightly not be affected.

I can't blame Abbot for being what he is, a deer in the headlights/spotlight. It's been clear enough it's his nature. I find it hard to blame the USFA for picking him, at his best, he is still the only shot at podium among the likes of Plush, Chan & Hanyu. Brown doesn't have a quad, he'd score like Amodio, if not even less for lack of Amodio's exposure and experience.

So it's just bad luck all round.

Skater Boy said:

IN fact if certain people win medals there is a ch ance it might be easier for US to regain three spots (just keep hoping Chan and Dai win medals) lol

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If Chan, Dai, and Plushy skip Worlds (Plushy will, Chan will if he wins, and Dai might if he's...well, if he wants to I guess), then I could see a team of Max and Jason both in the top ten (5-7) and regaining 3 spots. Possible? Yes. Probable....well...not so much.

Jeremy, on the other hand, should just go home and take his SAT's. Or start choreographing. He's only 28 and should start on phase II of his career/life.

Jeremy did earn his place on the Olympics team. If you were in Boston you would know that his long program was beautifully skated, confident, and strong. I have no idea why he blows up on the international stage but I'm over feeling sorry for him. He's 28, has been in this sport for years, has always had problems with consistency and isn't what I would call a strong competitor. But to vilify him is pointless. No one feels worse than Jeremy right now. I also don't think he gives a good interview so am not hanging on every word and reading meaning into it.

But I will say this - medals are handed out based on points...not whether you have a quad or not! Because he had the quad he had more points than Jason going into the LP at Nats. Jason won the free skate based on his GOE. The same thing could happen here in Sochi. In the end, it's the total points that count - not how you got them.

noskates said:

But I will say this - medals are handed out based on points...not whether you have a quad or not! Because he had the quad he had more points than Jason going into the LP at Nats. Jason won the free skate based on his GOE. The same thing could happen here in Sochi. In the end, it's the total points that count - not how you got them.

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Sure it's the total, but in a field of Hanyu, Chan, Plush, Fernandez, Machida, Joubert, etc, is it even likely for a no-quad BV to get anywhere near the podium?

At Nationals, or even a weaker GP, of course there's a chance, but at Sochi? It's not even likely without a successful quad combo.

I'd venture that Jason Brown's SP would likely land him at most above Liebers but below Amodio, ie. 6th or7th, not very much better than Abbot.

Well qwerty, those guys have to land those quads and quad combos. None of the skaters you mentioned have necessarily had consistent clean programs this year. And I may be the only one saying this but I didn't think Plush looked strong and confident other than his gratuitous posturing for the crowd and blowing kisses. Both the landing on his quad (ice flew) and his triple axel (he held on to it but it wasn't solid) were less than perfect. So anything can happen. I'm not saying Jason can or will win a medal but I don't think the quad is the be-all and end-all of a program unless it's landed cleanly like Hanyu's. I also realize the bar has been raised since Vancouver and it's likely that one or all of those guys will skate clean - but it's just as likely none of them will. I think it's going to be an interesting competition. No one can make a mistake!

p.s. For the record, and just my own opinion, I don't think Takahashi is going to be a factor at this Olympics.

I think it might be the hair cut. He needs Patrick Chan barber.

FWIW:

1 295.27 Patrick CHAN CAN ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2013 16.11.2013
2 293.25 Yuzuru HANYU JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2013/14 06.12.2013
3 268.31 Daisuke TAKAHASHI JPN ISU GP NHK Trophy 2013 09.11.2013
4 267.11 Javier FERNANDEZ ESP ISU European Championships 2014 18.01.2014
5 265.38 Tatsuki MACHIDA JPN ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2013 19.10.2013
8 245.62 Han YAN CHN ISU GP Cup of China 2013 02.11.2013
9 243.09 Jason BROWN USA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2013 16.11.2013
14 237.41 Jeremy ABBOTT USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2013 09.11.2013
16 236.98 Michal BREZINA CZE ISU European Championships 2014 18.01.2014
19 226.37 Denis TEN KAZ ISU Four Continents Championships 2014 24.01.2014
20 225.76 Peter LIEBERS GER ISU European Championships 2014 18.01.2014
22 223.66 Tomas VERNER CZE ISU European Championships 2014 18.01.2014
23 221.95 Brian JOUBERT FRA ISU European Championships 2014 18.01.2014
29 213.39 Florent AMODIO FRA ISU GP Cup of China 2013 02.11.2013
34 205.92 Jorik HENDRICKX BEL ISU European Championships 2014 18.01.2014

The top 15 ISU season's best scores. This of course does not include Plushy. On this list, Jason is 7th. Of course, the guys below him have the potential to score higher, but just has not yet not do so. (Also a sad reminder that Oda is not in Sochi despite being 6th on this list. )

It's worth noting that 243.09 is probably not the highest Jason can score either. That score came with a popped 3A in the FS.

That said, I say a best case scenario, as I'd say all along is for him to sneak into the final group. However that would require him to beat one of Chan, Hanyu, Takahashi, Machida, Plushy and Han as well to hold off on Brenzina, Ten, Abbott, Liebers and Verner, Joubert.

Based on what I saw at the team competition/Euros/4CC:

Probably won't beat:
Chan
Hanyu

Unlikely
Plushenko - his technical scores in the SP wasn't actually that much higher than what Jason scored, but he will get high PCS. It's Russia.
Machida
Fernandez

Can probably beat/hasbeaten
Han
Brezina
Ten
Abbott
Liebers
Verners
Joubert

Question mark
Takahashi (injury)

So basically my previous assessment stands -- Jason would need quite a bit of help to get on the podium, but top six, totally possible.

qwertyskates said:

Sure it's the total, but in a field of Hanyu, Chan, Plush, Fernandez, Machida, Joubert, etc, is it even likely for a no-quad BV to get anywhere near the podium?

At Nationals, or even a weaker GP, of course there's a chance, but at Sochi? It's not even likely without a successful quad combo.

I'd venture that Jason Brown's SP would likely land him at most above Liebers but below Amodio, ie. 6th or7th, not very much better than Abbot.

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If Jason scored what he did at Trophee Eric Bompard (84.77), he actually would have placed 5th, ahead of Amodio. I think given that Jeremy got 39 for that hot mess of a program in PCS, Jason's PCS for a clean program would have likely been 39/40, maybe highe. So 45.98 (TES from TEB) + 40= 85.98, which would actually have put him ahead of Han as well for the 4th place spot.

noskates said:

Well qwerty, those guys have to land those quads and quad combos. None of the skaters you mentioned have necessarily had consistent clean programs this year. And I may be the only one saying this but I didn't think Plush looked strong and confident other than his gratuitous posturing for the crowd and blowing kisses. Both the landing on his quad (ice flew) and his triple axel (he held on to it but it wasn't solid) were less than perfect. So anything can happen. I'm not saying Jason can or will win a medal but I don't think the quad is the be-all and end-all of a program unless it's landed cleanly like Hanyu's. I also realize the bar has been raised since Vancouver and it's likely that one or all of those guys will skate clean - but it's just as likely none of them will. I think it's going to be an interesting competition. No one can make a mistake!

p.s. For the record, and just my own opinion, I don't think Takahashi is going to be a factor at this Olympics.

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Plushy's jumps are still consistent, it's all else between them that are the problem,but he has the home advantage cushion. Jason can only medal if some 8-9 skaters ranked above him, including Abbot, are gripped by the same horrible jinx that is the Abbot meltdown. Likelihood is almost nil, so can't fault USFA or Abbot, really, for Abott's selection.

rosacotton said:

TontoK, so if, in the end it really is Jeremy and Max in Japan, between Jeremy-will-he-or-won't-he-deliver and Max seemingly not receiving really big international scores this season, what do you think are the chances of them: A) regaining three spots, B) holding on to two spots, or C) ending up with one spot for 2015 Worlds?

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I think they hold on to two spots, regardless of which duo skates (meaning if Jeremy withdraws, and Jason takes his spot)

There will probably be enough retirements/withdrawals of top skaters that the 2 US men can garner enough placements to hold their spots.

That said, I hope Jason and Max go. The time for the future is now.

BrentWolgamott said:

Agreeance about putting it at the end of the Games. Not the beginning.

Luckily, Jeremy's SP score will not affect Jason. Jason does not have to "make up" anything. They take the placements of all 4 entrants for each country. Add them up (10 for first, 9 for second, etc). Top 5 advance to the FS, with those placement scores (not the ACTUAL scores) carrying over. So all jason has to worry about is doing his best, and placing as high in the FS as possible. It doesn't matter how much he wins or loses any individual "placing" -- if he gets 3rd by 20 pts or .5 pts, he still gets the 3rd place ordinal (GAWD, i want ordinals back), and gets 8 pts for third place in the FS.

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Ahh thanks! I wasn't sure, I had read something about the team competition and ordinals but wasn't sure what it meant.

Also some people are saying the USFSA is to blame for selecting and 'inconsistent skater'.. It would have been wrong not to offer a segment of the competition to the national champ, who, despite inconsistancies does have quite a few titles to his name *and* had been practicing really well up until the warm-up.

I'm mostly disappointed that Jeremy didn't go for the 3A.. His score was extremely low, I bet quite a few ladies are going to score quite a bit higher than that!

TontoK said:

I think they hold on to two spots, regardless of which duo skates (meaning if Jeremy withdraws, and Jason takes his spot)

There will probably be enough retirements/withdrawals of top skaters that the 2 US men can garner enough placements to hold their spots.

That said, I hope Jason and Max go. The time for the future is now.

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There are many good points being made by all sides. If I cut any slack to any skater at the Olympics, it would probably be to the kid with the ponytail (who has always exceeded expectations this year and not needed it). Here, I have no expectations of his placement but, of all the skaters, he is one of four that I am most interested in seeing skate (the other three being Chan, Hanyu and Plushenko) because he has something that transcends the score. Even his free skate (the one that he supposedly tanked) at Skate America showed that. (For me, only Hanyu has the same kind of presence outside of the score as does Brown.) I put Brown in really great company, but for him (and U.S. skating) his placement here matters not so much as his presence and the experience he will gather from it.

But more than that:

What happened here in the short with Jeremy, and it only confirms what pretty well most of us believed before about Abbott's ability to compete internationally, is that the new kids (Aaron, Farris and Brown) are stepping into a vacuum. Basically, the bag is empty. What you write Tonto, ie "the time for the future is now" is bang on, because without these upcoming kids (all three of them are great competitors), there is no present even. Abbott can't say he wasn't give the chance. He was, time and time again, and he blew it. Let the kids run with it. It won't only be better for results in the long run, but actually the short run as well.