If my calculations are correct based on the results, if Kwan did not receive a time penalty she would have finished 2nd in the SP behind Sasha but ahead of Arakawa and Ando. However, this would not have changed the final results:
If Kwan had tied for 3rd (instead of 5th) in the QR, and she hadn't had the time deduction, she would have won the silver medal and Sasha, bronze. Otherwise, you are right, Ogre Major, the end result would have been the same.
This is of course assuming that all the girls had skated the same in the LP. I just don't think you can safely assume that since emotions/nerves are such a big factor, and I think they might have skated differently if Michelle had nailed her QR, and was in 1st for the SP.