Ashley Wagner's chances going forward? | Page 5 | Golden Skate

Ashley Wagner's chances going forward?

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
What I wonder about is if Ashley gets surpassed by Gracie and another skater such as Polina, if she will continue on in a situation where she is always fighting for the 3rd spot at Nationals.
 

desertskates

Medalist
Joined
Nov 19, 2013
and what are Wagner's accolades ?
she isn't even a Worlds medalist :laugh:

what Gracie has achieved now has already surpassed what Wagner achieved
Gracie is also young, fresh and beautiful

Skyfly, isn't it exhausting to tear someone down all the time to try to push someone else forward? Seriously, I would think you'd get sad or just plain tired of it after a while.

In the meantime CanadianSkaterGuy has some cold, hard numbers above you can look over.
 

tripletwizzle

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 12, 2014
No, Ashley doesn't have the raw talent that a Yuna or Mao or Caro has, but I LOVE watching her skate. She doesn't put you to sleep, she skates with attack and fire and it is great to watch, unlike some other skaters' programs that are of higher technical quality but boring to watch. I feel the same way about Kaetlyn Osmond- not perfect technically but super entertaining to observe. We need great entertaining quality in skating too, not just jumping!
 

juppiter

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 12, 2014
Ashley is done. What she lacked in fundamentals, she made up for in consistency. You can learn consistency, and Kostner is an inspiration to us all, but you can't re-learn fundamentals. The fact is, the 3-3 has become a "sine qua non" for the ladies as much as the Quad has for the men. Ashley doesn't have it and thus she cannot be one of the top ladies.

I love her personality and I will remember her fondly, but I have the feeling she will have a poor showing at 2015 Nationals and will quietly, gracefully recede after that. And maybe in 4 years she will be a fun commentator. She is outspoken, I could see her offering new/different opinions that you don't get from Bezic/Hamilton.
 

noskates

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 11, 2012
Not particularly a fan of Ashley's but come on!!! Top 10 in the Olys? That's not too shabby. I don't think she's done. I may feel differently after Worlds but I think it's kind of cruel to just summarily write her off. She may have to work harder than some but she has the guts and the wherewithal.

I don't care AT ALL for Carolina Kostner. I find her skating to be somewhat boring. I just don't think she's all that special but I'm also not ready to say she's "done" either.

I think Worlds will be telling.
 

juppiter

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 12, 2014
For the short program, in 1988 all the skaters would have been doing pretty much the same elements. The only difference would have been the jump combination. And perhaps, using 2014 rules, level B vs. level 1 for some spins and steps. I don't think anyone would have earned level 2 by today's rules, but it might be possible.

Beyond that, the distinctions would mostly come down to GOEs and PCS. There's room for more difference of opinion there.

Do you want to collect videos of these performances so we can all watch the same versions? And those who want could try our hand at scoring PCS and GOEs?

I wouldn't expect complete agreement among Golden Skate posters or among official judges. So the more people who offer scores, the more representative consensus could be developed.

It's NOT shabby, but you don't keep competing to come in 7th unless you have a legitimate chance to be cream of the crop. Like, if you have a bad skate but otherwise would have been a medal contender, you keep going (e.g. Mao Asada, whose short program was a disaster, but whose long program was considered by many to be one of the best, if not THE best). If you are getting 7th and 7th was the best you could have hoped for, you retire.
 

desertskates

Medalist
Joined
Nov 19, 2013
There are plenty of skaters, especially in Europe where many countries are represented, that are continually ranked below #10 in the world and they continue. Sometimes for years. If a person loves what they are doing, are not injured, and not bleeding their entire family dry on the $ front, by all means--keep going!
 

juppiter

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 12, 2014
There are plenty of skaters, especially in Europe where many countries are represented, that are continually ranked below #10 in the world and they continue. Sometimes for years. If a person loves what they are doing, are not injured, and not bleeding their entire family dry on the $ front, by all means--keep going!

That is Europe though. In the US there are girls chomping at the bit to replace Ashley.

Carolina Kostner was able to keep going until she got in the zone. U.S. skaters do not have that luxury.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Yes, I meant her 3-3 has never been "rock solid" through the years.
I admire her for her titles, I was just pointing out that it's a bit too much to hope that at age 22 (right?)
she could have an exploit like Kostner did... she lacks the base material.
I still prefer to watch her skate 100 times than Gracie Gold. I find Gold terribly boring -_-

Um, many skaters' 3-3's haven't been rock solid over the years, including Kostner and Asada.

I don't find Gold boring, but I find her too "classic", and it's just pretty and not yet exciting. Wagner has spunk and electrifies a crowd. Gold puts on a technical show and looks elegant.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Sorry... but how can you make a comparison between Wagner and Kostner?

Wagner never had a real 3-3, she never won a major international title, she's not special artistically.
Kostner was doing incredible 3-3 (and even more like 3-3-2) since she was a teenager, she has always had top qualities in skating (speed, jumps, flow). That's what brought her to win several world medals, and later to become world champion and olympic medalist.

I actually like Wagner, I think she has some good spirit in skating and she is: solid.
But she doesn't have the talent the top skaters have. She just doesn't.
She may still win a medal if others fall at these post-olympic worlds.

Pretty much spot on. I like Wagner but there seems to be a sense of fantasy and unrealism from some of her fans. I do think she can medal here or at next years worlds but she must skate letter perfect and have several others fall. She had better win a world medal soon if she ever going to, as after next year her window will pretty much be slammed shut.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Ashley is done. What she lacked in fundamentals, she made up for in consistency. You can learn consistency, and Kostner is an inspiration to us all, but you can't re-learn fundamentals. The fact is, the 3-3 has become a "sine qua non" for the ladies as much as the Quad has for the men. Ashley doesn't have it and thus she cannot be one of the top ladies.

I love her personality and I will remember her fondly, but I have the feeling she will have a poor showing at 2015 Nationals and will quietly, gracefully recede after that. And maybe in 4 years she will be a fun commentator. She is outspoken, I could see her offering new/different opinions that you don't get from Bezic/Hamilton.

It's not exactly fair to say she doesn't have it when she's landed it more times this season than she has in the past few. Her 3-3 has been more consistent than Mao's triple axel for example. The issue is that many skaters can perform it with higher consistency and quality than her. But she's actually had more success with the 3-3 this season than any previous one and credit needs to be given for that. I kind of see it as Kwan trying to get her 3-3 back when she realised she needed it to be competitive in her latter years. It's hard to re-learn a maneuver as difficult as a 3-3, particularly when you haven't been competing with it, and (like Mao keeping a 3A even if it got inconsistent over the past few years) Ashley gets an A for effort for at least attempting it -- particularly when some of her scores/results would have actually been higher had she played it safe and just did the 3-2.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
I do think [Wagner] can medal here or at next years worlds but she must skate letter perfect and have several others fall.

Pretty much. I still think her best chance was 2012 (her score total in Sochi would have won that event)...now, I think Gold is the US best chance for a medal and is someone else that will ultimately stand in Wagner's way from an individual standpoint (in addition to the top international crop). I think Wagner is a very long shot here, but you know, ultimately anything can happen TBH...as long as she's within striking distance point-wise, if the door ever opens...and she delivers...
 

jaylee

Medalist
Joined
Feb 21, 2010
Pretty much. I still think her best chance was 2012 (her score total in Sochi would have won that event)...now, I think Gold is the US best chance for a medal and is someone else that will ultimately stand in Wagner's way from an individual standpoint (in addition to the top international crop). I think Wagner is a very long shot here, but you know, ultimately anything can happen TBH...as long as she's within striking distance point-wise, if the door ever opens...and she delivers...

I was re-watching her 2012 Worlds FS yesterday, and I really think it's a shame that she didn't medal at those Worlds. She botched her flip in the SP, but other than that, I'd take her programs and performances over Alena Leonova's (though not Akiko's).
 

Moxiejan

Medalist
Joined
Jan 11, 2014
Country
United-States
The bottom line here is that, over the past two years, no American lady has been able to better Ashley's record of two Top 5 finishes at Worlds, two Top 3 finishes at the Grand Prix final and multiple golds in Grand Prix events and/or 4CC. Yes, very recent history has given some momentum to Gracie. Let's see what happens at 2014 Worlds (and next fall's Grand Prix) before we start dissing Ashley's merits as a competitor.
 

BlackPack

Medalist
Joined
Mar 20, 2013
Things really suck for Wagner. She did her best in Sochi and no reward. She is a strong woman so I think she'll do well in life. She barely made the Olympic team this time, so her future in the skating ranks isn't good. I think she can try to give her best shot at Worlds. The momentum is there for her. After this season, though, I don't think her prospects are good. Polina and Gracie are probably going to dominate the next quad.
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
Ashley did well at the beginning of the season but since nationals, her 3-3 has been MIA. She desperately needs it in both programs if she wants to medal at worlds this year. Past this year, things will get harder for her. The ones we've been calling newbies (Adelina, Julia, Gracie, etc.) are now the veterans and an entire new crop of newbies will come in. This post-Sochi crop of ladies are scary...most have two 3-3s and level 4 everything. Ashley isn't a gifted enough skater to do what Carolina and Mao did, ie. weather the storm of newbies by relying on superior skating skills and artistry. It won't work b/c she doesn't hold a significant advantage over them in PCS anymore, especially after the Olympics. All of them can beat her out in TES as well which leaves Ashley in that unfortunate position of relying on others to make mistakes in order to medal.

I'd like to see her on the world podium this year but with Mao, Carolina, Gracie and Julia in the field, I don't see that happening unless one of them falters and she skates cleanly. I think she'll be a solid #2 or #3 option for the US next year. She should be able to win a few more GP and national medals...but as far as winning a world medal...I'm not so sure that will happen for her past this year.
 

BlackPack

Medalist
Joined
Mar 20, 2013
If Ashley skated pre-2006, she would have been a World or possible Olympic medalist. But the field is too deep now, not just at home but abroad.
 

concorde

Medalist
Joined
Jul 29, 2013
Ashley is a hard worker and really wants to be on the podium at Worlds ... but I'm not seeing it. To be on the podium, she needs 3/3.

She has worked really hard to get a consistent 3/3 but she does not have it. Given her age, I doubt she will get ever it. So as other posters commented, to get on the podium, she must rely on the mistake of others.
 
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