Ashley Wagner's chances going forward? | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Ashley Wagner's chances going forward?

Mista Ekko

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 9, 2009
I'm rooting for Wagner to pull off an AndO ;)

Getting a spark lit in your skating and grades only in post Olympics seasons
 

Amei

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 11, 2013
That being said, I know she's said she wants to continue competing for another four years and, perhaps, make another appearance in Pyeongchang in 2018. Realistically, what are her chances of making the Olympic team in four years? And does she have a legit shot at doing well competitively over the next four years? I like her as a person, but I think we've sort of seen Ashley push the limits of her skating talent...and to be honest she isn't exactly on the same level as the top tier girls. I don't think it has anything to do with her drive, ambition, how hard she practices, etc. I think, unfortunately, it sort of just comes down to innate talent. Ashley doesn't have the smoothest, easiest edges, her knees aren't as springy, she has a hard time getting that 3-3 to go down, etc.

Still, maybe she'll surprise us. What do you guys think about her prospects going forward?

She needs to get better at the technique and up the artistry (choreography) ; if she doesn't improve her technique and make that 3 - 3 more consistent then she's not going to be a podium contender unless the other contenders mess up. The reason figure skaters stay around for 3 cycles and are legit contenders for the Olympic team is that either: they represent a country with a small talent pool or their talent grows to a level of 'rarely beatable', like Asada.
 

WeakAnkles

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 1, 2011
One of the things about Ashley and the Olympics I found interesting is that after the team event, she essentially said, now I am going to train the way Rafael wants me to train. Which leads me to suspect that she didn't train as hard as she could have. The difference in a week was pretty amazing. She skated both of her IE events with real fire and attack. She may want to consider doing a Mao with Rafael--start again with the basics, train the way he wants her to train. And then see what happens.

She does have a limited range--Juliet proved that--but within that range she's quite a good interpretative skater.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
^ I think that was after Nationals, when she chose to replace her FS...she said something to the effect that she gave herself completely to RA in hopes of "making [her] worthy of being an Olympian". I think her confidence was really shot after what happened in Boston...she really made a lot of progress in a short amount of time. If she fully dedicates herself over the next 3 weeks leading up to the world championships, she may be back to having an outside shot at the podium (of course, depending on how others do like always).

IIRC, post-Olympics worlds are usually poorly-skated anyway since everyone is exhausted from the Olympics. Sometimes I wonder why they even bother to have Worlds in Olympic years...
 

fadeevfan

Rinkside
Joined
Feb 1, 2004
It's rare to see a skater really improve after 22 or 23 -- they're usually really just trying to maintain their skills. To seriously contend -- even for just the U.S. podium -- Ashley will have to improve. I hope she'll pull a shocker and grab a bronze at world's; might be her last chance.
 

Figure 8's

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 10, 2014
I hope Ashley will do well at Worlds. Maybe even a bronze. But I agree age is catching up and rarely can a Skater maintain, much less improve as they get older.
 

Icey

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 28, 2012
When ashley first appeared on the scene, she skated fearlessly and with abandon, but somewhere along the line she lost that for some reason. I hope she gets that back: throws caution to the winds.
 

desertskates

Medalist
Joined
Nov 19, 2013
I really hope for two things for her right now to help her going forward. A Worlds medal, it's entirely possible. And a sports psychologist. I read she never saw one and followed her dad's advice to "stop being a wimp". That's only going to make a person hard on themselves and could be counter productive. Maybe a psychologist wouldn't help, but it certainly couldn't hurt.
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
Bluntly, IMO, she has a lot to improve on still if she wants to make the podium at major international events. I think she was (rightly) heartened by her progress and ascent, and assumed she could just keep ascending, perhaps riding a JuLip esque PCS wave. However, the fact is, her jumps (while consistently landed) are generally mediocre, and she does not have a fully rotated triple triple when it is called correctly. She just does not. Her spins are also mediocre and she struggles to get level 4 on them- often, too often for someone who wants to actually land on podium at major international events, she gets level 2. Until she improves all of this, she will continue to rely on the mistakes of others for high placements on the GP and at Worlds. She only places as high as she does generally because she often goes clean in a very unclean field.

Additionally, she is in denial I think about her PCS which also need work. in the team event I did think they were too low relative to others but the truth is her basis SS are good, her choreography is acceptable, and her transitions are very good. Her PE and IN are also good sometimes very good- sometimes just good. There is not a single category, IMO, where she is currently 'excellent' and not in need of improvement if she wants to break through further.

I wouldn't say I am a Ashley fan, but I respect her greatly and am no hater. She pulled herself up through sheer hard work and courageous life changes, and I can't not respect and value that. But she probably has a lot more hard work ahead of her if she ever wants to even be US #1 again, and she definitely does if she wants to contend for a World podium, even this year (again, barring major mistakes by others).
 

Icey

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 28, 2012
I really hope for two things for her right now to help her going forward. A Worlds medal, it's entirely possible. And a sports psychologist. I read she never saw one and followed her dad's advice to "stop being a wimp". That's only going to make a person hard on themselves and could be counter productive. Maybe a psychologist wouldn't help, but it certainly couldn't hurt.

Her dad is something else imo. When she complained to him about having to live on a three ingredient diet, peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, his response was that for a period in his life he had lived on a one ingredient diet, ramen noodles.:rolleye:
 

desertskates

Medalist
Joined
Nov 19, 2013
Her dad is something else imo. When she complained to him about having to live on a three ingredient diet, peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, his response was that for a period in his life he had lived on a one ingredient diet, ramen noodles.:rolleye:

Yikes! Ok, I hope she get a sports psychologist today if that's the case :( On the upside, I'm sure she's eating whatever her heart desires these days :)
 

composer

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 1, 2010
Her dad is something else imo. When she complained to him about having to live on a three ingredient diet, peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, his response was that for a period in his life he had lived on a one ingredient diet, ramen noodles.:rolleye:

Ooh tiger dad alert! But it worked (sort of) did it not? Ashley went on to be two time US national champion ... Although I sure hope she is getting better nutrition now because that is not exactly great nutrition for an athlete.
 

noskates

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 11, 2012
I think Ashley is capable of winning a medal but her free skates have been too sloppy. I think when she was still skating under John Nicks her skating was more crisp and cleaner. I think he's more of a task master than Artunian. JMO. I, too, have never been much of a fan of hers but I do think she works hard. I find her skating kind of boring and rote in that she doesn't really connect with her music - just goes through the motions of her choreography. But I do wish her well and I hope between the 3 US women that we have placements that will put us in good stead for next year's competitions.
 

louisa05

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 3, 2011
I think that some day, skating fans will learn that we can predict nothing. Especially in ladies.

Who predicted four years ago that Ashley would be a two time National Champ and Olympian while Mirai would not make another World team?

And a quick skim through the Olympic predictions thread shows that while a good number of people picked all the other gold medalists, no one picked Adelina. And hardly anyone had Mao off the podium.

No one saw Gracie coming four years ago. Let alone Polina.

A year ago, some people around the web were picking Liza T for gold and she didn't even make the team.

I don't know what the future holds for Ashley. But I'm pretty sure we can't predict any of it! :)
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
I still think a medal at '14 Worlds is a long shot for her (not impossible, though, I should stress). Gold, OTOH, has a great chance here.

I think the favorites will be Lipnitskaya, Asada and Kostner. Gold could factor in if one slips up and she is on.

Wagner, I predict, will fall between 5th and 9th depending on how generous the judges feel(?). Now, if Gold has an off-night as well, that MIGHT be the door-opening that Wagner will need. But three years now and she hasn't gotten that. You simply cannot rely on others' mistakes if you want to move up.
 

caseyl23

Rinkside
Joined
Dec 29, 2005
I hope Ashley can stick around for another four years, but I'm not sure USFSA will stick with her if the U.S. ladies scene continues to develop as it did this season. Granted, it's impossible to predict what will happen for sure, but right now, it looks like Gracie Gold has arrived as the judges' favorite of the U.S. ladies. Polina Edmunds has already beaten Ashley at Nationals, but it's hard to know what her future holds right now. If one assumes both Polina and Gracie will stick around as top U.S. ladies, that only leaves one spot.

I'm pulling for her, but today, it seems like she's facing long odds. The thing she's got going for her is that she's been pretty consistent in the big events, so I don't expect her to fall far (if she falls at all), but will U.S. Figure Skating continue to back her if she doesn't prove herself capable of winning World medals? Or in three, four years, will they want to give a chance to another young skater?
 

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
I think that some day, skating fans will learn that we can predict nothing. Especially in ladies.

Who predicted four years ago that Ashley would be a two time National Champ and Olympian while Mirai would not make another World team?

And a quick skim through the Olympic predictions thread shows that while a good number of people picked all the other gold medalists, no one picked Adelina. And hardly anyone had Mao off the podium.

No one saw Gracie coming four years ago. Let alone Polina.

A year ago, some people around the web were picking Liza T for gold and she didn't even make the team.

I don't know what the future holds for Ashley. But I'm pretty sure we can't predict any of it! :)

:agree: Thx for the great post, louisa.
 

Angryyew

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 16, 2014
I agree that you can't really predict, but my speculation would be that, while it's not impossible for Ashley to make the 2018 Olympic team, it's improbable. If Ashley spent 4 years getting her 3/3s consistently fully rotated, fixed her two footing issues and significantly improved her skating skills, she could be a contender, but that's certainly a tall order for someone at her stage of the game. Gold & Edmonds seem likely to surpass her, but they might fizzle and maybe none of the current juniors will rise up. If she is willing to do the work, I see no reason she shouldn't give it a go, if that's what she wants.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2009
I think that some day, skating fans will learn that we can predict nothing. Especially in ladies.

Who predicted four years ago that Ashley would be a two time National Champ and Olympian while Mirai would not make another World team?

And a quick skim through the Olympic predictions thread shows that while a good number of people picked all the other gold medalists, no one picked Adelina. And hardly anyone had Mao off the podium.

No one saw Gracie coming four years ago. Let alone Polina.

A year ago, some people around the web were picking Liza T for gold and she didn't even make the team.

I don't know what the future holds for Ashley. But I'm pretty sure we can't predict any of it! :)

Yeah. Remember that in 2006, we had a World Champion who could do a triple-triple and a triple axel. That was the last time Kimmie Meissner made it big internationally, so most people's predictions for the next Olympic cycle were completely off-track.
 

flying camel

Medalist
Joined
Nov 16, 2005
I honestly don't think Ashley has another four years in her. She may be able to go two more. I remember her saying that she wanted to go to college full time after these Olympics. I guess she changed her mine about that.

I am worried she won't be ready for worlds with all this going to the Oscars business.
 
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