State of US Ladies in skating III: 2014-15 Season

desertskates · Oct 6, 2014

Thanks for posting the 2010 vid, Eladola! Starlight97, one of the reasons I love to root for Ashley besides her presentation skills is that nobody could ever accuse the girl of being lazy. She relocated to change coaches several years ago on money she earned and lived on her own at much younger than some skaters do. Nobody had ever said anything negative about the work she puts in at the rink, and her level of fitness has never fluctuated.
I'm sad to say I'm not really a fan of this new program for her, but I really hope she'll pull the jumps together and do well and the Grand Prix circuit. She seems to do well after a meltdown, like Olys and Worlds last year, so we shall see :popcorn:

chuckm · Oct 6, 2014

I'd just like to know WHY Ashley is the only one of the top ladies not to skate in a Challenge event. Makes me wonder if she is injured, and her subpar performance at the Japan Open suggests that may be the case. She's due to compete at Skate Canada later this month, and right now, she doesn't look like a serious contender for a medal.

Amei · Oct 6, 2014

chuckm said:
I'd just like to know WHY Ashley is the only one of the top ladies not to skate in a Challenge event. Makes me wonder if she is injured, and her subpar performance at the Japan Open suggests that may be the case. She's due to compete at Skate Canada later this month, and right now, she doesn't look like a serious contender for a medal.

Skaters aren't required to skate in a Challenge event are they?

Perhaps her team looked at the fact that she is a pretty well seasoned vet that didn't need an extra competition to work out the kinks of her programs.

R.D. · Oct 6, 2014

Also, if there's anyone that can turn things around in a short amount of time, and has been proven to do so....

...it's Wagner.

She has often had the opposite problem - coming out very strong and fizzling out toward the end. It's unlike her to struggle early, but maybe after all these years she's finally figured out how to pace herself...

Or, it could mean she's done. We'll see. My concern for her would mainly be motivation and heightened injury risk (longevity, trying jumps beyond her capability). Whether she can get past the mental block on her jumps and unhappiness with her scores and translate that to some serious work and improvement on that front remains to be seen, and may not prove to be easy. There's also the looming reality that sooner or later she'll face: her theoretical best may still not be enough to get that world medal. With that in mind, is there any point to her continuing on? That's a question she'll need to ask herself at some point as this quad proceeds.

chuckm · Oct 6, 2014

Amei said:
Skaters aren't required to skate in a Challenge event are they?

Perhaps her team looked at the fact that she is a pretty well seasoned vet that didn't need an extra competition to work out the kinks of her programs.

Maybe, but it's just odd that she's the ONLY top US lady who's not participating in the Challenges. It's to their advantage to do so---they have all received a big helping of ISU ranking points for doing the Challenges.

flutzy13 · Oct 6, 2014

chuckm said:
Maybe, but it's just odd that she's the ONLY top US lady who's not participating in the Challenges. It's to their advantage to do so---they have all received a big helping of ISU ranking points for doing the Challenges.

If I remember right, she hasnt done one in several years. It seems part of her plan each season to skip them and not something unique to this year.

concorde · Oct 6, 2014

SimplyAFan said:
USFSA needs to start looking at skaters at the novice level and prepare them for competing internationally as juniors so they have the experience ands resources to be competitive. For example, Polina Edmunds didn't compete internationally until after she had won the junior national title. Compared to the Russians who are the same age, she has relatively no experience. Which puts her at a disadvantage.

Agreed 100%.

tulosai · Oct 6, 2014

R.D. said:
There's also the looming reality that sooner or later she'll face: her theoretical best may still not be enough to get that world medal. With that in mind, is there any point to her continuing on? That's a question she'll need to ask herself at some point as this quad proceeds.

To me this is the heart of the issue. In all honesty, I think she could still maybe get a World medal if she skated ABSOLUTELY perfectly, but not without at least 4-5 other people imploding... and that's even with the retirements. As even this season progresses it may come to be more than 4-5 who would need to implode. So there is a real question IMO, once she comes to accept that this is the case (which I'm not convinced she has yet, to be honest, though I could be wrong of course) she will think it's worth it to keep going. At this late point in her career, it is very unlikely she's going to be able to add much to her technical arsenal or, honestly, to her PCS which actually appear to be on the decline.

I really respect her and would not mind to be proven wrong, but I think this is the reality. I do think she is perfectly capable of remaining a mid-tier skater and winning some meals on the GP, being sent to Worlds, etc in the coming years, but I just don't see her making a further breakthrough at this point. I think if she was actually going to do that she's missed the opportunity, unfortunately... though as I said, happy to be proven wrong, and I've been wrong about her before.

drivingmissdaisy · Oct 6, 2014

As long as she is one of the top US skaters she will be in the mix for medals internationally. At Worlds she would need to beat the other Americans and one Russian to medal. If she someone manages to do a 3/3 in the SP she can do a 2A/3T in the long and go for 7 triples. With a 2A/3T, 2 flips and 2 loops her jump BV could be higher than last year's Olympic medalists so she could definitely be in contention if she hits her programs.

tulosai · Oct 6, 2014

drivingmissdaisy said:
As long as she is one of the top US skaters she will be in the mix for medals internationally. At Worlds she would need to beat the other Americans and one Russian to medal. If she someone manages to do a 3/3 in the SP she can do a 2A/3T in the long and go for 7 triples. With a 2A/3T, 2 flips and 2 loops her jump BV could be higher than last year's Olympic medalists so she could definitely be in contention if she hits her programs.

I don't think she can beat any of whatever 3 Russians are sent to Worlds. Her chances of beating Lipnitskaia are nonexistent so that is at least one who will place above her. I think at this juncture her chances of beating Gold, minus a meltdown by Gold, are also nonexistent (and when I say meltdown, I mean meltdown); ditto Sotnikova. IMO that's 1 she can't beat and 2 she can't beat barring a TRUE implosion. I suspect that Radionova will be the third Russian, and based on the preseason and last year, it seems likely she'll be this year's Lipnitskaia; another one Wagner can't hope to beat, probably. So she's number 4 that Wagner, in my humble opinion, has virtually no chance of beating.

Then there are several others she probably could lose to- whoever the 3rd American is, Murakami, possibly Imai, even others, depending, could be in there.

While I do agree she'll remain in the mix for international medals, I disagree that it's in any way likely she's going to be able to get a World medal, barring implosion or injury, this year or, frankly, in years to come. The issue isn't only her BV, it's her PCS, which have dramatically slipped and continue to slip. If she manages to turn that around, that's great, but she is not trending that way, and the layout you describe I think is not likely to be attainable for her in any case.

Again though, I do stand ready to be proven wrong.

Amei · Oct 6, 2014

drivingmissdaisy said:
As long as she is one of the top US skaters she will be in the mix for medals internationally. At Worlds she would need to beat the other Americans and one Russian to medal. If she someone manages to do a 3/3 in the SP she can do a 2A/3T in the long and go for 7 triples. With a 2A/3T, 2 flips and 2 loops her jump BV could be higher than last year's Olympic medalists so she could definitely be in contention if she hits her programs.

She skated clean at the Olympics (no falls) and finished behind girls that fell - so she has to better than how she did at the Olympics. And I think she has 3 Russians to beat at Worlds.

elee63 · Oct 6, 2014

This thread... We get it people. We all have our own opinions of who is the number 1 lady right now. Debating back and forth with little tidbits of information accomplishes nothing.

tulosai · Oct 6, 2014

elee63 said:
This thread... We get it people. We all have our own opinions of who is the number 1 lady right now. Debating back and forth with little tidbits of information accomplishes nothing.

I disagree. It's fun and a distraction in the off season. As long as people remain on topic and respectful, I think debating back and forth is sort of the whole point of a forum.

Sandpiper · Oct 6, 2014

I think it's possible for Ashley to beat Gracie. A lot hangs on how Gracie does throughout the season and how much momentum she has going into Worlds. If she skates badly most of the time, I don't think the judges will hold her up by the time Worlds rolls around.

The real issue for Ashley is whoever Russia sends to Worlds. She'll need one of them to bomb really, really badly (likely Adelina, since Yulia and Elena are quite consistent). So... I'd say it's theoretically possible for Ashley to get bronze if Gracie does badly and Adelina completely bombs. It's not probable, of course, but I can see why she's continuing.

drivingmissdaisy · Oct 6, 2014

tulosai said:
I don't think she can beat any of whatever 3 Russians are sent to Worlds. Her chances of beating Lipnitskaia are nonexistent so that is at least one who will place above her. I think at this juncture her chances of beating Gold, minus a meltdown by Gold, are also nonexistent (and when I say meltdown, I mean meltdown); ditto Sotnikova. IMO that's 1 she can't beat and 2 she can't beat barring a TRUE implosion. I suspect that Radionova will be the third Russian, and based on the preseason and last year, it seems likely she'll be this year's Lipnitskaia; another one Wagner can't hope to beat, probably. So she's number 4 that Wagner, in my humble opinion, has virtually no chance of beating.

You're probably right, although I can see Ashley beating Gracie just because she can be hit or miss. Elena was really impressive in Japan and we are seeing another skater in the mold of Adelina/Julia who packs her program with difficult jump entrances and a ton of transitions. For better or worse, this is the direction that skating is headed and the Americans need to examine their layouts to include more difficult content or they are going to trail far behind the Russian ladies because the US girls are already trailing on TES.

Sam-Skwantch · Oct 6, 2014

I think somehow Gracie wins SA. Don't know why and I like Radionova much more but my gut tells me we'll see her first Gold medal at a GP there. No stats, facts or special insight. Just a feeling.

starlight97 · Oct 7, 2014

Eladola said:
Just to add another element to the story that would give you more perspective on Ashley's whole Olympic situation,
Here she is at 2010 fighting for a spot in the team after a fall in the short, Finishing 4 points away:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAPG12Ne-yg

Yes, when I watched the US nationals this year, after Gold finished the commentator said:
"In 2010 Ashley was third when there were 2 spots available and now in 2014 she is forth when there are 3 spots available. "
And I thought ro myself "how hard must that be? Please please send her and remember that the rest of the season counts as well"
And thank god she could go.

I do agree with everyone on the fact that she will need serious meltdowns from the 3 Russians (who I agree will be Lipnitskaya, Radionova and Sotnikova. Until Serafima Sakhanovich emerges from the Junior Circuit)
and from Gracie as well.
And since I also think that it will most likely be Gracie or Adelina who implode, they would still need to make more than 2 serious mistakes to give Ashley's absolute best self a chance.
And I can't really imagine what it feels like to go to a competition knowing that even with a completely perfect Performance or the skate of your life, you don't stand a chance.
But who knows....due to her skates at the GPF etc they wrote Sotnikova off as well prior to the Olympics. And we all know that (no matter the scoring!!) she had the skates of her life and we know the story. Hurt pride can work wonders and like we sadly saw with Yulia in Sochi, immense expectations and pressure can make even the strongest skaters crumble at times.
So I won't give Ashley up completely yet . And who doesn't like an underdog

?

Sandpiper · Oct 7, 2014

I don't think Gracie needs to have a complete meltdown to be beaten by Ashley. She just needs to make a major error while Ashley is perfect. I'm more worried about whether Ashley can hit that 3-3 and escape the UR/two-foot calls.

Adelina would indeed need to have a total meltdown though. I can't wish that on her, as much as I'd love a World medal for Ashley.

samson · Oct 7, 2014

Can we talk about Mallory King? I hear she's looking to resurrect her trademark Lion King number and practicing triple lutz, triple loop combos consistently now. :love:

love:

sunnystars · Oct 7, 2014

samson said:
Can we talk about Mallory King? I hear she's looking to resurrect her trademark Lion King number and practicing triple lutz, triple loop combos consistently now. love:

I don't mean to be rude or anything, but who's Mallory King? I actually googled her and all I got was someone else....

State of US Ladies in skating III: 2014-15 Season

desertskates

chuckm

Amei

R.D.

chuckm

flutzy13

concorde

tulosai

drivingmissdaisy

tulosai

Amei

elee63

tulosai

Sandpiper

drivingmissdaisy

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”

starlight97

Sandpiper

samson

sunnystars

#teamotherskaters

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