The "I have a gut feeling that..." thread for '14-'15. | Page 2 | Golden Skate

The "I have a gut feeling that..." thread for '14-'15.

JayW

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 8, 2013
W/P blossom
Shib/Shib struggling and soul searching

V/T continue dominant
S/H progress

Anna P outskates Julia L
Adelina redeemption
Elena R grows
Mao NOT retire
Gracie wins big
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Bobrova & Soloviev will turn pro or split upon the new of I&K continuing.

this one is a long shot though of happening
I/K splitting is more realistic than B/S splitting up anytime soon
B/S have known to have good work ethic and have been together longer than I/K
 

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 1, 2013
Country
Australia
lol @ the idiots saying that 15 year old girls are done... :rolleye: Hoping that Polina is done will not magically make Mirai stop underrotating and put her on the Olympic team after the fact.

I have a feeling that we are going to see three of the four medallists from men's at Nationals this year on the podium again next year, but in a slightly different order/position...

(As an aside: Hmm, I have a problem. I want Max to bounce back strong and reclaim his National Title. I want Jason to build on his first great season with another and win his first National Title. I want Joshua to burst out from the shadows and rise to claim his first National Title, thus ensuring he has been National Champion at every level except Junior. Yes, there is a very obvious problem here. botherbotherbother.)
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
lol @ the idiots saying that 15 year old girls are done... :rolleye: Hoping that Polina is done will not magically make Mirai stop underrotating and put her on the Olympic team after the fact.

I have a feeling that we are going to see three of the four medallists from men's at Nationals this year on the podium again next year, but in a slightly different order/position...

(As an aside: Hmm, I have a problem. I want Max to bounce back strong and reclaim his National Title. I want Jason to build on his first great season with another and win his first National Title. I want Joshua to burst out from the shadows and rise to claim his first National Title, thus ensuring he has been National Champion at every level except Junior. Yes, there is a very obvious problem here. botherbotherbother.)

I think Polina and Mirai are both done. I have nothing specifically against Polina and thought she was great at Worlds and Olys, but she is a twig, far more than Yulia, and she has VERY large feet which is an indicator that she is very likely to also grow taller. I don't know if she is 'done' permanently, but I don't think puberty will be kind to her and she will just glide through it. I don't think I'm an idiot to think so, and this thread is for gut feelings anyway, idiotic or not. We'll see how she does.
 

hippomoomin

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
I have a feeling Polina E. will progress very well and the podium will be locked by Gracie, Ashely and Polina at home, and it will be out of other US ladies' reach.

Russian babies will continue to bring fresh blood to competitions.

Denis Ten will get better and better, but men's competition will be less exciting without Chan and Takahashi.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Can't predict the future, but..."gut feeling"...

- Polina Edmunds and Yulia Lipnitskaya(!) will not dominate like everyone thinks.

- Mao Asada will actually not end up retiring...(but could still take a break)

- Ashley Wagner's skating years will unfortunately catch up to her and she'll have to pull out of at least one event

- (This assumes both Asada and Kostner retire/sit out) We will be in for some sort of surprise at Worlds with the newly wide-open field up top.

It would be nice to get new faces up top...
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Wouldn't it?

You're telling me

Same old gets boring after a while. Probably part of the reason I partially tuned out of worlds (that and it was a post-Olympic one)...I knew what was going to happen already.
 

noskates

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 11, 2012
I just cannot imagine in what world Polina would be done - she just started! Had to laugh at Karne and 3 men winning Nationals. I only want one of them to and the other two can fight over second and third. But I also agree that Lipniskaia will not live up to the pre-Olympic hype again. Not to say she won't win a GP but she won't dominate. I think the women are going to be really interesting in the coming years....and the men, too.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
I already envisioned the moment Jason Brown did Riverdance at the Broodmoor Open that he would end up getting a major standing ovation at U.S. Nationals and shake things up. Obviously that gut feeling turned out to be an understatement since 1.) I did not have a gut feeling I would be there to witness it in person 2.) I did not have a gut feeling that he would make it to the Olympic team and 3.) Or that it would generate 4M+ views on YouTube.

So I'm sort of spent on gut feelings, I suppose.

I have a gut feeling however that Ashley isn't done yet, though.
 

louisa05

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 3, 2011
I just cannot imagine in what world Polina would be done - she just started! Had to laugh at Karne and 3 men winning Nationals. I only want one of them to and the other two can fight over second and third. But I also agree that Lipniskaia will not live up to the pre-Olympic hype again. Not to say she won't win a GP but she won't dominate. I think the women are going to be really interesting in the coming years....and the men, too.

I think both Polina and Julia have some physical growth coming. Polina is awkwardly long limbed at this point and is going to grow into her arms and legs and feet eventually. Julia has no curves whatsoever (and if you thought they were hidden by the fit of her costume, go look at the pic Polina posted with her on Twitter). Her chest looks like an 11 year old. Yes, some women are very small breasted (believe me, I am personally aware). But by the end of puberty, we all have some sort of breasts. It appears Julia has some puberty to come yet. And any skating fans that don't know that physical changes can derail or delay a career have clearly not been paying attention.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
I think both Polina and Julia have some physical growth coming. Polina is awkwardly long limbed at this point and is going to grow into her arms and legs and feet eventually. Julia has no curves whatsoever (and if you thought they were hidden by the fit of her costume, go look at the pic Polina posted with her on Twitter). Her chest looks like an 11 year old. Yes, some women are very small breasted (believe me, I am personally aware). But by the end of puberty, we all have some sort of breasts. It appears Julia has some puberty to come yet. And any skating fans that don't know that physical changes can derail or delay a career have clearly not been paying attention.

One only has to look at Kanako Murakami. I just posted this video from 2010 on her fan thread -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qz8Hw5pbwhs

In 2010, she won Skate America, got bronzes at NHK Trophy and GPF and a respectable 8th place at Worlds. The following year she started growing. Eventually she came into her own, but there were definitely some bumps along the way.

Also consider that Kanako was older than both Polina and Julia -- almost 16 at the start of the 2010-2011 senior when she debuted -- her growth came when she was 16 going on 17. (Sound of Music pun!)
 

desertskates

Medalist
Joined
Nov 19, 2013
I don't think Polina's going to dominate the world scene, but I do have the gut feeling that US Nationals may be another wonky one. For example, 1. Polina 2. Ashley 3. Gracie.
I do think those ladies will be the World team, but the battle between the three could be very close.
I hope they all stay healthy to keep it interesting and give them all a fair chance for what they want.

Gut also says Elena R. may have a rough growth spurt for some reason. She's not just short or just thin, she's all over tiny. But she could easily recover over time should that be the case.
 

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2013
Country
United-States
I don't think Polina's going to dominate the world scene, but I do have the gut feeling that US Nationals may be another wonky one. For example, 1. Polina 2. Ashley 3. Gracie.
I do think those ladies will be the World team, but the battle between the three could be very close.
I hope they all stay healthy to keep it interesting and give them all a fair chance for what they want.

I agree it will probably be those three and the battle for U.S supremacy will be important. Probably only the U.S #1 might have a medal chance at next years worlds.
I have a feeling it won't mean a whole lot outside of the US. :slink:

Ashley however will lead the way. She is the only one with enough sass to compete with the Russians who have very strong attitudes themselves. :popcorn:
 

desertskates

Medalist
Joined
Nov 19, 2013
I have a feeling it won't mean a whole lot outside of the US. :slink:

Ashley however will lead the way. She is the only one with enough sass to compete with the Russians who have very strong attitudes themselves. :popcorn:

Agreed, that sadly it won't mean a whole lot when Worlds rolls around. But the optimist in me will hope one of the ladies pulls out a medal. And I'll hope it's Ashley leading the charge.
 

desertskates

Medalist
Joined
Nov 19, 2013
And that train of thought just brought on a whole other gut feeling--should Ashley find herself with a world medal next year, that may bring on a surprise retirement announcement. Hmmmm.....
 

desertskates

Medalist
Joined
Nov 19, 2013
Well I give the U.S #1 (whoever wins that mini battle) only like a 15% chance to medal at next years worlds. However someone who is not the defacto U.S #1 is more like 3%. We all saw from Gold's scores at Olympics and worlds (generous to put it mildly for how she skated) and Wagner's scores, how someone who isnt even #1 in the U.S will be pretty much buried in the judges minds before the event even begins. As you imply even the U.S #1 does not give you that much leverage these days, so you need to be that to even have any chance.

I think that seems like a pretty accurate assessment. Hope they make good choices with music, etc and train hard to give themselves a chance.
 

louisa05

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 3, 2011
One only has to look at Kanako Murakami. I just posted this video from 2010 on her fan thread -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qz8Hw5pbwhs

In 2010, she won Skate America, got bronzes at NHK Trophy and GPF and a respectable 8th place at Worlds. The following year she started growing. Eventually she came into her own, but there were definitely some bumps along the way.

Also consider that Kanako was older than both Polina and Julia -- almost 16 at the start of the 2010-2011 senior when she debuted -- her growth came when she was 16 going on 17. (Sound of Music pun!)

Exactly. Some kids grow a bit later. I had a student years ago who shot up from 5'1" to 5'8" during her senior year of high school. It isn't a career ender, but both Polina and Julia could have some struggles coming. My gut is that it will be easier for Polina as she has good height on her jumps and already a little bit of curves to contend with.
 

Ryan O

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 5, 2004
Country
Canada
Dance- I&K will remain together. Weaver & Poje will win their first world title. Bobrova & Soloviev will turn pro or split upon the new of I&K continuing. Paul & Islam will overtake Gilles & Poirier as Canadian #2 at least. Virtue & Moir and Davis & White will both officially anounce their retirements from amateur competition.

G&P overtook P&I at the Worlds. So they've already won a re-match since Nationals.

But I don't get this constant need for P&I fans to keep asserting they are better - the 2 teams are close in ability and can flip back and forth depending on the event. So I'm not sure one of them will 'overtake' the other permanently.
 
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