2014-15 Season Preview

pangtongfan · Apr 17, 2014

Petrova & Tikhonov were the closest thing to a paper world champion ever. I mean in the sense of what it was like to face them in the following season, not that they didnt fully deserve their world title. In the year they won worlds they were one of the strongest and the most consistent team of the season, although it was still an upset they won worlds with most expecting Berezhnaya & Sikharulidze (who missed worlds with an injury), Sale & Pelletier, or Shen & Zhao. However in their season as reigning world champions they came dead last at the grand prix final of 6 teams, 4th at Europeans, and 6th in the long program at worlds. They werent even competitive with the top teams.

The reason that draw was possible is that neither Sale & Pelletier (4th after making 3 mistakes in their Love Story program) or Berezhnaya & Sikharulidze (missed worlds) were a top 3 seed.

Ryan O · Apr 17, 2014

Yes, P&T were also very boring and mechanical. Nice people, but they had no spark. Debbi Wilkes, a former Olympic medalist in pairs herself, even said on CTV that month that they had 'no sex appeal'. They just got the job done in Nice at Worlds 2000 by being clean and ticking off the elements. But they were still competitive when they were on, and B&S were S&P's closest rivals.

Btw, the reason B&S had to withdraw from Worlds wasn't because of injury, it was because Elena tested positive for a banned substance (apparently cough medicine!) They were stripped of their European Title, which some people thought was harsh.

blancanieves · Apr 17, 2014

chuckm said:
It doesn't work that way. USFS has no say where their skaters will be invited. Other than the top two seeds (who pick the events they want) and the host invitations to their own skaters, the whole GP process is done by the hosts drawing lots at each stage of selection. After the host picks, the top two seeds name their events, and the remaining two events go to the #3 seed. Then the hosts draw lots for each remaining category selection: seeds 4-6, worlds finishers 7-9, worlds finishers 10-12, top 24 on WR list (if not already selected), top 24 on SB list (if not already selected), etc.

The host who draws first has first pick per category; the host who draws 6th gets whoever is left in that category. No way can USFS influence the outcome of the draw.

It is possible that for CoR, the Russian Fed may pick skaters that won't offer much competition to their own stars. Since both Nagasu and Zawadzki haven't exactly been consistently good on the GP circuit they may fit that criteria.

Is there any rule that would prevent 2 hosts from swapping early picks before announcing final assignments? That would be a way of negotiating to support certain skaters.

flutzy13 · Apr 17, 2014

chuckm said:
It isn't uncommon for a host to try to assemble a less-competitive field to protect the home skater.

For sure, I fully expect USFS to do everything in their power to protect Gracie and Chock and bates. And I think that's fine. It's only when the judging of the assembled field is ludicrous a la dance at Cup of Russia this past season that I have an issue.

karne · Apr 17, 2014

chuckm said:
Look at the skaters the Russian Fed originally picked for CoR (Men). It's fairly plain that the skaters were chosen that would pose the least competition for Kovtun:

Farris - JW champion moving up to GP for the first time.

It isn't uncommon for a host to try to assemble a less-competitive field to protect the home skater.

Well, if they were trying to pick a "weak" field for Kovtun, then this pick particularly was foolish, since the last time these two went head to head, in Russia, with Kovtun getting massively overscored, Farris beat him in the SP. Unfortunately he was ill for the long program, so couldn't bring his best performance there, but given Farris and Kovtun had gone head to head before and, when both were at full strength, Farris was better, I would have thought this was a risky proposition.

chuckm · Apr 17, 2014

Ryan O said:
But nowadays you're right that we often don't see the top skaters together until the GPF. V&M and D&W didn't skate against each other last season until the GPF, for example. But Chan and Hanyu both faced off at Skate Canada (and TEB). So it depends.

You don't see top skaters (i.e., the top seeds) competing against one another until the GPF. Seeds #1, #2 and #3 do not compete in the same event because according to the rules, there is supposed to be one of the top 3 seeds at every event, and one from seeds 4-6. Sometimes it hasn't worked out that way because host picks take precedence, but that is rare.

Chan and Hanyu faced off last year because at Worlds 2013, Chan was the #1 seed and Hanyu the #4 seed.

This year, Japan has 3 seeded men: #1 Hanyu, #2 Machida and #6 Kozuka. Theoretically, NHK could pick all 3 as host picks, but probably won't do so.

chuckm · Apr 17, 2014

karne said:
Well, if they were trying to pick a "weak" field for Kovtun, then this pick particularly was foolish, since the last time these two went head to head, in Russia, with Kovtun getting massively overscored, Farris beat him in the SP. Unfortunately he was ill for the long program, so couldn't bring his best performance there, but given Farris and Kovtun had gone head to head before and, when both were at full strength, Farris was better, I would have thought this was a risky proposition.

Not that risky--Kovtun had beaten Farris at their last head-to-head competition: the 2012-2013 JGPF. And a brand-new senior skater is likely to get lower PCS scores than a skater who's already skated Senior at Euros and Worlds.

karne · Apr 17, 2014

chuckm said:
Not that risky--Kovtun had beaten Farris at their last head-to-head competition: the 2012-2013 JGPF. And a brand-new senior skater is likely to get lower PCS scores than a skater who's already skated Senior at Euros and Worlds.

That was the competition I was referring to - the one where a ridiculously overscored Kovtun could not beat Farris in the SP and only won overall because Farris was sick.

Ryan O · Apr 18, 2014

It will be interesting to see how the Ice Dance seeds fall into place next season, once we find out who the 6 seeds are.

Ryan O · Apr 18, 2014

pangtongfan said:
I am hope for Skate Canada and Trophee de France for Weaver & Poje. I hope none of the top 3 Canadian teams get the Rostelecom Cup facing the top 3 Russian teams (the 2 new ones and B&S).

Yes, both W&P and G&P had the unfortunate luck of having to skate in Russia this past November, and both teams saw their scores drop about 10 points from their earlier GP events.

Perhaps the top 3 Canadian dance teams will all get Skate Canada, although they tend to alternate who they invite each year. I'm hoping G&P are able to do Skate Canada this year since they didn't get to do it last season. G&P and R&H did Skate Canada a couple of seasons ago with V&M, and then this past year it was W&P and P&I with V&M.

karne · Apr 18, 2014

pangtongfan said:
and Farris only was ahead in the short since Kovtun bombed. There was no reason for the Russian fed. to think Farris was some risky opposition to Kovtun. If Kovtun skated poorly enough to possibly lose to Farris he was never going to do well anyway.

Kovtun didn't bomb the short - he made one mistake, and Farris made one mistake, and Farris came out on top by a point - which is absolutely ridiculous. Kovtun's PCS shouldn't be anywhere near Farris', junior, senior or otherwise.

And you act like losing to Farris is this terrible thing - lots of skaters better than Kovtun have done it. Farris has National titles at every level in the US except Junior (which he lost by two tenths of a point to Brown) and Senior (and it wouldn't surprise me if that changed this season). He's a Junior World Champion and also took the silver the year before. Farris was the only one on the Junior circuit with the tech to challenge Kovtun and he and Brown were far superior in terms of quality.

Don't make out like Kovtun was the ultimate superjunior, because it doesn't work.

Jammers · Apr 18, 2014

Josh just needs to be more consistent and get that quad once and for all and he will soon be a top 5 skater. He has the skills but needs to have a breakout year like Jason just had. I want to see a bit more fire from him which he seems to lack at times.

nimi · Apr 18, 2014

In the Hanyu thread there was posted a short Japanese interview with Orser re: Hanyu's training. It mentioned in passing how "the rules of scoring will be changed this June; Orser thinks the skating skill is the only basic foundation that won’t be influenced." (translation by Echotpe)

June is still far, far away, but let the speculation begin! Will the Sochi men's splatfest and lead to more severe points deductions for falls? Will they go back to downgrading jumps that are more than 1/4 underrotated (I hope not)? What kind of new and devious rules about getting level 4 for spins there could be planned? Will the 10% bonus for backloading programs stay untouched? Will there be any big sweeping changes or just small cosmetic ones?

NMURA · Apr 18, 2014

I agree more penalties are desirable for falls. But it's not reasonable to apply -1 deductions for all skaters from novice girls to top senior men. The deductions for falls should be decided in accordance with the PCS (for example lower the factor by 2% for the FS and 4% for the SP).

The sequences using the 3A (or quad) as the second jump should be given full base values.

nimi · Apr 18, 2014

^ Yeah, if you think about in terms of percentage, it's a bit funny that even for top senior men, whose TES alone in FS is over 90 points, the penalty for falling is only 1 point. Of course in theory, besides the -GOEs, the PE mark in PCS could/should be affected by disruptive fall(s), but as we know, in reality it doesn't always work like that...
Or in dance, when a 6.1 second lift gets the same -1 penalty as does an ugly stumble and splat after exiting a 6.0 second lift... No wonder so many casual fans/viewers are all

pangtongfan · Apr 18, 2014

Ryan O said:
Yes, both W&P and G&P had the unfortunate luck of having to skate in Russia this past November, and both teams saw their scores drop about 10 points from their earlier GP events.

Perhaps the top 3 Canadian dance teams will all get Skate Canada, although they tend to alternate who they invite each year. I'm hoping G&P are able to do Skate Canada this year since they didn't get to do it last season. G&P and R&H did Skate Canada a couple of seasons ago with V&M, and then this past year it was W&P and P&I with V&M.

If G&P are a seeded team I actually see them being the 2nd team at Skate Canada. They are no competition for W&P so they fit the "easy win for W&P" plan in place anyway, and Skate Canada will probably do well assembling a weak field to all but ensure them 2nd place. If P&I arent a seeded team they might be invited too though, as it very unlikely if they arent a seeded team they would have a chance at the grand prix final anyway given that the 6 seeded teams as things are now are all (except maybe G&P) much stronger than they are, and that isnt even counted teams like B&S and the new Russians.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Apr 18, 2014

karne said:
Kovtun didn't bomb the short - he made one mistake, and Farris made one mistake, and Farris came out on top by a point - which is absolutely ridiculous. Kovtun's PCS shouldn't be anywhere near Farris', junior, senior or otherwise.

And you act like losing to Farris is this terrible thing - lots of skaters better than Kovtun have done it. Farris has National titles at every level in the US except Junior (which he lost by two tenths of a point to Brown) and Senior (and it wouldn't surprise me if that changed this season). He's a Junior World Champion and also took the silver the year before. Farris was the only one on the Junior circuit with the tech to challenge Kovtun and he and Brown were far superior in terms of quality.

Don't make out like Kovtun was the ultimate superjunior, because it doesn't work.

At the JGPF, Farris would have had to been beyond perfect to have a shot at beating Kovtun's FS. Anyone asserting Farris would have won if he were healthy is as delusional as saying Plu could have beat Javier at 2013 euros if he weren't injured.

Farris came 5th and WD in his first GP and was 6th at his first ISU championship. Kovtun got 2 GP silvers and 5th at his first Euros. I'm a huge fan of Farris' skating but it's obvious Kovtun (who placed 4th a worlds in his first GP senior season and had a PB 20 points higher), is way ahead of Farris at this point.

I would actually consider Kovtun a super junior. He added a quad to his FS mid-season and delivered 2-quad freeskates at Nationals, Euros and Worlds (not many juniors have had two quads in a FS, let alone one). He won the Russian national title in his first time as a senior at Russian Nationals.

Ryan O · Apr 18, 2014

pangtongfan said:
If G&P are a seeded team I actually see them being the 2nd team at Skate Canada. They are no competition for W&P so they fit the "easy win for W&P" plan in place anyway, and Skate Canada will probably do well assembling a weak field to all but ensure them 2nd place. If P&I arent a seeded team they might be invited too though, as it very unlikely if they arent a seeded team they would have a chance at the grand prix final anyway given that the 6 seeded teams as things are now are all (except maybe G&P) much stronger than they are, and that isnt even counted teams like B&S and the new Russians.

Yes, it makes sense that if V&M don't return next season, Skate Canada will want to give W&P a boost as the new #1 Canadian dance team. G&P aren't a threat to W&P, although they've improved and were only 4 spots apart in the FD at Worlds. But I don't ever expect the close rivalry that we had between W&P and C&P. The new Canadian rivalry is obviously between G&P and P&I. (Although there is also one further down between O&W and R&H).

It will be interesting if Skate Canada does what you propose and also gives G&P a boost to build on their momentum from Worlds by giving them a shot at getting onto the podium with W&P at the SC Grand Prix. I agree that we have to see how B&S and the newly constituted Russian teams stack up against the Canadian dance teams. And if there is another retirement (eg. C&L), there could be a chance for P&I to move up to seeded status. We've seen more movement in dance this year than we expected.

karne · Apr 18, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
I'm a huge fan of Farris' skating but it's obvious Kovtun (who placed 4th a worlds in his first GP senior season and had a PB 20 points higher), is way ahead of Farris at this point.

Not in PCS he isn't, or shouldn't be. Kovtun could only dream of having the artistic interpretation, skating skills and lines that Farris does, and let's not even start the discussion on the quality of their jumps. Straight up-and-down vs godawful hunch - no contest.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
He won the Russian national title in his first time as a senior at Russian Nationals.

No he didn't. He was fifth the year before - as a Senior. Remember? He finished fifth - and to lose to Gachinski that season took some doing, and I say that as a Gachinski fan - oh, and where did Farris finish at Nationals that year? Fourth, in a much deeper, much stronger field than what Kovtun faced at his own Nationals, if he really was some kind of super-junior.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Apr 18, 2014

karne said:
Not in PCS he isn't, or shouldn't be. Kovtun could only dream of having the artistic interpretation, skating skills and lines that Farris does, and let's not even start the discussion on the quality of their jumps. Straight up-and-down vs godawful hunch - no contest.

No he didn't. He was fifth the year before - as a Senior. Remember? He finished fifth - and to lose to Gachinski that season took some doing, and I say that as a Gachinski fan - oh, and where did Farris finish at Nationals that year? Fourth, in a much deeper, much stronger field than what Kovtun faced at his own Nationals, if he really was some kind of super-junior.

Actually he was a junior competing at senior nationals. I don't count a skater who has skated as a junior up until the point of Nationals as anything more than a junior. Otherwise you could argue that Nam Nguyen was a senior this year at Nationals just because he was competing in the senior division and Proklova is a "senior" when she placed 4th at Nationals. They were junior level skaters skating in a National competition. Let's get that straight. Once Kovtun competed at Euros, his first senior competition, then you could consider him a "senior" even though he was really a junior skater fast tracked mid-season into senior-level competition. Obviously a skater on the junior GP is unlikely to win their nationals (unless its a lesser skating country). So you would never consider their inability to win Nationals as a junior against them when discerning if they won Nationals on their first/or an early try. You get rare exceptions, like Sotnikova, but for the men it's super rare to be from a popular skating country and win your senior nationals in a year that you've been competing solely as a junior.

Pangandtongfan and I rarely agree, but even he concedes Farris is much inferior to Kovtun at this point. I mean, 4th at US nationals vs. 4th in the World? I mean if Farris were 4th in Japan that might be different but come on now.

2014-15 Season Preview

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

Ryan O

blancanieves

flutzy13

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode

chuckm

chuckm

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode

Ryan O

Ryan O

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode

Jammers

nimi

NMURA

nimi

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

CanadianSkaterGuy

Ryan O

karne

in Emergency Backup Mode

CanadianSkaterGuy

Similar threads

Connect with us