Ashley Wagner and the Olympics

Mrs. P · Jun 20, 2014

R.D. said:
I agree. Gold blew an EXCELLENT chance at a world medal this year. But as pointed out earlier, she'd hardly be the first one to do so.

Let's not forget, however, that Wagner has blown opportunities presented to her as well. 2012 was HER best shot at a world medal, especially after defeating Asada at 4CCs...but then she went belly up in the SP as usual. Her shot was gone before she even had a chance to take it, really. And, of course, this year's Nationals. She wouldn't have made Sochi if USFS went by the book and sent top 3.

So...bottom line is I would trust neither of them to skate if my life depended on it.

I get what is being said, though - Gold doesn't have the same "mindset of attack" that Wagner did at worlds. But even Wagner herself was missing that for at least the first half of the season, lest we forget...

Good points, RD. And actually the fact Ashley lost that attack the first half of the season (despite doing fairly well in spite of it) supports my point of the importance of staying focused and seizing opportunities.

Ashley's weakness has never been a lack of attack -- earlier this season notwithstanding -- it's always been that she wanted it too much that she psyched herself out. That was the case in 2012.

I feel like Gracie has the opposite problem. For some reason, the prospect of being a top contender seems to play with her mind a bit. I remember an interview where she said that after winning pewter as a Novice in 2010, she felt a lot of pressure to be at the top, which resulted (along with major growth spurt) in her not qualifying for Nationals the following year.

We saw that again at Skate Canada 2012, when she was totally taken aback by the amount of media attention she received.

And her interviews of late seem to indicate that she's feeling a little bit of that now that she's U.S. Champion. I think Frank has helped her greatly with her mindset, but it's clearly a journey and process at play here.

She has the technical arsenal. She has the political support of being USA No. 1 internationally. She only has to allow herself to walk through the open door.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jun 20, 2014

Yeah I think Gold's rise has affected her nerves. Hopefully her experiences last season allow her to get more consistent next season. She will need it because the field with Russians will be even tougher. She also won't get the luxury of Polina being a newbie and might have to hold her off nationally. I think she certainly has the potential, she just needs to maintain the momentum in her early season and not lose focus in her freeskates.

drivingmissdaisy · Jun 20, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Yeah I think Gold's rise has affected her nerves. Hopefully her experiences last season allow her to get more consistent next season. She will need it because the field with Russians will be even tougher. She also won't get the luxury of Polina being a newbie and might have to hold her off nationally. I think she certainly has the potential, she just needs to maintain the momentum in her early season and not lose focus in her freeskates.

I agree that this is the year that Gracie will have to prove herself. Despite her best results, last year was a bit underwhelming for Gracie because she had chances for better placements in the international events. She was not the reigning champion last year but I still felt that Gracie had a target on her back, with all the attention given to her because of Olympic expectations. Kwan was a bit of a mess in 1996-97 dealing with being the frontrunner and was able to bounce back and have great results the following years, so hopefully Gracie can rebound as well.

Blades of Passion · Jun 20, 2014

Mathman said:
I have never really got these discussions about, "if so-and-so hadn't fallen down (but she did).." and "if so-and-so had skated better (but she didn't)…" and "who would win if they all go clean (but they won't)…"

It's a form of higher-level thinking. Comparison and analysis of the various properties of separate entities.

Lots of people skating "perfectly" is uncommon but it still happens (more in the SP than the LP). Thus, it's a useful benchmark to set by proposing the scenario of "if everyone skates perfectly, how should they rank?"

The problem, of course, is that everything SHOULD come down to what actually happens the day of competition and what skaters put out on the ice. One skater might perform better than anyone could have ever expected, exceeding previous expectations. Another skater normally considered "the best" might perform far below their full potential. Too often skaters are judged based upon reputation, ie - bad judging.

That's just a simple example too. A great judge should be able to accurately ascertain and measure all of the different facets within a performance. I actually don't believe we've ever truly had a good number of excellent ice skating judges at any point in the history of the sport. They've never been trained well enough, they've almost never been objective enough (national bias + internal pressure), they've never been well-policed, and they've never been officially paid - which leads to being more easily bribed.

Sandpiper · Jun 20, 2014

I feel like Gracie has the opposite problem. For some reason, the prospect of being a top contender seems to play with her mind a bit. I remember an interview where she said that after winning pewter as a Novice in 2010, she felt a lot of pressure to be at the top, which resulted (along with major growth spurt) in her not qualifying for Nationals the following year.

I wish the media hadn't hyped Gracie as some potential gold medal contender in Sochi. Sure, the politics seemed to give a big boost in her PCS, but it also added a lot of pressure. I suspect that's why she mucked up Worlds (and fell in the Olympics FS).

Icey · Jun 20, 2014

Had Kiira left Raphael before He started coaching ashley? Now Kiira is returning to LA.

ice coverage · Jun 20, 2014

Sandpiper said:
I wish the media hadn't hyped Gracie as some potential gold medal contender in Sochi. ...

I would note that the media are not to blame that Team Gold aided and abetted the hype.

ETA: I mean Team Gracie Gold -- as in her inner circle. Was not making any reference to the team skating event. Sorry for any confusion.

For example, Gold willingly appeared on The Tonight Show. And willingly posed for the Sports Illustrated cover.
(If fortunate enough to be offered the same opportunities, most athletes presumably would have done the same -- so I am not condemning Gold for her choices. Just sayin'.)

Sandpiper · Jun 20, 2014

For a second there, I thought you were talking about the Team Event and my brain went, "What, they weren't saying she'd be Olympic champion because Team gold" (that'll be even more impossible, considering the relative strength of the US team vs. Russia).

Of course Gracie's team wanted the hype. Like you, I don't blame her for seizing media opportunities when they come. However, I've come across a whole bunch of articles analyzing the ladies' event and naming Gracie as a potential candidate for gold, which is just :scratch:. Imo, this kind of journalism is either a) ignorant, assuming the writers really believe what they were writing or b) lying, since it's misinforming their readers about the actual situation. The pressure it put on Gracie isn't the only reason I dislike those articles (though I don't think it helped her any). The whole thing kinda stinks of desperation, because another Olympics has come by with the US having no candidate with a chance of gold (podium, yes, by a very long shot, but not a win).

ice coverage · Jun 20, 2014

Sandpiper said:
For a second there, I thought you were talking about the Team Event and my brain went, "What, they weren't saying she'd be Olympic champion because Team gold" (that'll be even more impossible, considering the relative strength of the US team vs. Russia).

...

Oops, thanks for pointing out the ambiguity of my usage of "Team Gold." Sorry ... I will go back and edit my post to clarify.

fleeting · Jun 20, 2014

Make hay of the Gold puns while the rink lights shine, I suppose.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jun 20, 2014

It's totally fine for team USA to expect their National champion to be their "gold medal hope" from a PR perspective. But they're as delusional as sky_fly if they ever thought she could actually win or even podium (which she missed by 9 points). I think, like Julia, expectations on her were high after the team FS where she actually managed to skate clean.

Sandpiper · Jun 20, 2014

I'm sure Team USA knew Gracie wasn't going to win (unless everyone lost their minds). I'm not sure if the average American would've known, due to the way the PR machine treated Gracie. Imo, it's okay to praise your skaters, but to treat them as a gold medal contender when they really aren't is not being responsible to your audience. I think, perhaps, the skating powerhouses--not just talking about USA here, but they're the most prominent in the English-language news--would be better served by cherishing their skaters even when Olympic gold isn't at stake. Fake desperate overhype can actually turn people of.

(To be fair, there have been delusional articles hyping Brown and Abbott as podium/gold contenders :laugh:

, but at least I only came across one or two of those. On the other hand, seems like every US-media article hyped Gracie as a gold contender, or at least a podium finisher).

Blades of Passion · Jun 20, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
It's totally fine for team USA to expect their National champion to be their "gold medal hope" from a PR perspective. But they're as delusional as sky_fly if they ever thought she could actually win or even podium (which she missed by 9 points).

Gracie certainly could have won. She has the technical goods and she had enough political backing. That's all you need. It would have required the top 3 ladies making (more) mistakes, but that's hardly unfathomable. Figure skating is increasingly just becoming a sport of whoever does the best technically is the winner, as long as you have enough clout.

Brenda · Jun 20, 2014

Icey said:
Had Kiira left Raphael before He started coaching ashley? Now Kiira is returning to LA.

They trained together for a few months, Ashley had very good things to say about Kiira on The Skating Lesson.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jun 21, 2014

Blades of Passion said:
Gracie certainly could have won. She has the technical goods and she had enough political backing. That's all you need. It would have required the top 3 ladies making (more) mistakes, but that's hardly unfathomable. Figure skating is increasingly just becoming a sport of whoever does the best technically is the winner, as long as you have enough clout.

"Making more mistakes?" The top 3 skaters beat her by 9, 14 and 19 points. Even with political backing (as evidenced by her huge leap in PCS from her clean team FS to her individual FS with a fall), she still didn't deliver the goods to podium and was VASTLY far from the OGM.

Yes, had she skated clean and her opponents bombed, she certainly could have won. But that's not what happened. Suzuki could have won gold too, in that case, had she gone clean and the top ladies "made more mistakes". As for Gold having the technical goods, falling in every international freeskate, and lip/axel issues doesn't constitute "technical goods"... well, she might have them, but she rarely showed them last season.

And I throughly disagree that whoever does the best technically is the winner. I mean, otherwise Pogorilaya would have won bronze at Worlds over Kostner. It's more like... as long as you have enough clout, you can do poorly technically and still be the winner or ahead of those more deserving (whether Chan Worlds win over Ten, Kostner's Worlds SP over Murakami/Osmond, the Germans over the Canadian pairs at 2013 Worlds and P/T in Sochi, Lipnitskaia at Cup of Russia, etc.).

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jun 21, 2014

Sandpiper said:
I'm sure Team USA knew Gracie wasn't going to win (unless everyone lost their minds). I'm not sure if the average American would've known, due to the way the PR machine treated Gracie. Imo, it's okay to praise your skaters, but to treat them as a gold medal contender when they really aren't is not being responsible to your audience. I think, perhaps, the skating powerhouses--not just talking about USA here, but they're the most prominent in the English-language news--would be better served by cherishing their skaters even when Olympic gold isn't at stake. Fake desperate overhype can actually turn people of.

(To be fair, there have been delusional articles hyping Brown and Abbott as podium/gold contenders , but at least I only came across one or two of those. On the other hand, seems like every US-media article hyped Gracie as a gold contender, or at least a podium finisher).

It was common sense that if any 3 of Julia/Kostner/Kim/Mao/Sotnikova all skated clean or close to clean, Gold would instantly be off the podium. So to rely on 3 top skaters bombing in order to medal and all 5 of these skaters bombing for Gold to win gold is quite a stretch.

Had Mao/Julia skated as well as at Worlds (which was a far greater likelihood than Gold going clean and the top 3 of Sotnikova/Kim/Kostner all bombing), she'd have been 6th. Lucky for Gold, Mao had a nightmare of an SP, and Julia was uncharacteristically poor in both the SP & LP, so she was "just off the podium", but a mile away from 3rd and a league away from 1st. Which is how it should have been... the top 3 were in a class of their own, and Gold/Wagner/etc. were simply also-rans (and Mao skating simply for redemption rather than a medal).

Blades of Passion · Jun 21, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Yes, had she skated clean and her opponents bombed, she certainly could have won. But that's not what happened.

Of course that's not what happened. But it was a realistic possibility. Gracie didn't need to the top 3 to "bomb" either. Just to make significant mistakes. At the Olympics, even with all the corruption, they weren't going to let a top competitor skating perfectly lose to someone making mistakes throughout the competition. If Sotnikova had, let's say, stepped-out of her 3Flip in the SP and fallen on her opening 3Lutz in the LP, that would have completely changed the competition. That's not "bombing", but it's a clear statement of failing to achieve a certain level. The same goes for Yu-Na and Kostner if they each had one clear mistake in the SP+LP. Gracie skating like she did in the team portion of the Olympics would have won Gold.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
And I throughly disagree that whoever does the best technically is the winner.

I never said that. Getting tired of the poor reading comprehension.

BUT, to expand on the topic, there continues to be less artistry in figure skating and it's never judged right anyway. Therefore, the only thing actually being judged for the most part IS the technical merit. You just have to check all the boxes off. Whoever does that best is the winner, as long as your reputation/politics is good enough. Reputation/Politics will be on your side if you consistently check all of the boxes off. Therefore...

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jun 21, 2014

A reputable skater is usually one who has developed their artistry to a point where if they "check off all the technical boxes" they win.

I can assure you there are many instances of skaters winning without checking off the technical boxes but relying on reputation and clout, which is a problem.

Like, are you complaining if a reputable skater (likely with better artistry than less reputable skaters) wins because they go clean?! That's like... what should happen. Or even as a general statement you're complaining if a skater wins because they check off all the technical requirements? You would rather have a skater who you consider artistic to win? Brown should win the Olympics without a quad, etc.

IMO if a skater goes clean with high difficulty, there's no reason they shouldn't win, unless they are outperformed by an artistically superior skater who has comparable difficulty and is close to clean. Obviously Kim with 6 triples should beat Radionova with 7 triples. But Radionova with 7 triples should place higher than Kostner with 3 triples and falls. A clean Brown with no quad should definitely place behind a clean Reynolds with 3 quads.

As far as my reading comprehension goes, you said yourself that skating is getting to be about whoever does the best technically as long as you have enough clout. So maybe you should say what you mean instead of writing something and expecting us to read between the lines.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jun 21, 2014

Also if you're saying its a realistic possibility that all of Kim/Lip/Kostner/Asada/Sotnikova would do poorly enough to place behind Gold who skated cleanly enough, that's a poor assumption.

For starters, it wasn't a particularly realistic possibility that Gold would go clean (having never delivered a clean senior competition), just as it wasn't realistic to think Kim would ever skater poorly enough to let Gold beat her.

Realistic thinking was that Gold would make a major error (surprise, she did!), and that Kim would go clean or close to clean (surprise, she did!). The unexpected possibilities were expecting Mao to completely bomb her SP, Lip to fall in both, or Kostner to actually deliver two clean skates.

Gold would have needed all the stars and thensome to win in Sochi. Even if she went clean, she would have been off the podium, and as a supposedly "realistically possible OGM" she couldn't even do that.

It's also silly to tout someone as a realistic gold medalist, with the proviso that 5 of her competitors have to do poorly and she has to deliver an unprecedented clean competition in order for that to happen.

Why not say Murakami or Suzuki were realistic gold medalists then. If Suzuki had skated like at Japanese nationals, or Murakami like at 4CC, and Sotnikova/Kim/Lip/Kostner/Asada/gold all bombed then either of them were potential OGM. If Wagner had delivered her GPF short program and Worlds FS and everyone bombed, she was a realistic OGM. :sarcasm:

Blades of Passion · Jun 21, 2014

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
A reputable skater is usually one who has developed their artistry to a point where if they "check off all the technical boxes" they win.

Development of "artistry" these days = having non-stop transitions, speed, and getting the highest scores on your spins and footwork. That's technical ability, not artistic.

Consistently checking off all those technical boxes builds your reputation (aka, PCS). Hence, artistry is continually becoming less and less rewarded in figure skating. All you need is a very basic matching of movement to "exciting/serious" music. Everything else is technical now. Therefore, whoever checks off the most technical boxes and has the best clout/politics behind them is the winner.

It will become very apparent in this coming season, now that the older field has retired. Figure skating is no longer an artistic activity. It's a gymnastics activity on ice, with music in the background.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Why not say Murakami or Suzuki were realistic gold medalists then.

They didn't have the same level of technical difficulty and they didn't have as much political backing. Hence why it was realistic for Gracie to be considered a threat to win the Olympics, but not others. Yu-Na, Mao, Carolina, Gracie, and the two Russians were the realistic possibilities to win the OGM.

Ashley Wagner and the Olympics

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

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Skating is Art, if you let it be

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Skating is Art, if you let it be

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Skating is Art, if you let it be

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