Medal Contenders (Favorites) For 2018 PyeonChang Olympics | Page 6 | Golden Skate

Medal Contenders (Favorites) For 2018 PyeonChang Olympics

Meoima

Match Penalty
Joined
Feb 13, 2014
I don't want everyone to attempt zero quads and 3-3s (the horror!), but it doesn't make sense to me to reward falls so highly. Difficult elements should be rewarded when they're successful, not when they're failed. Of course there were falls in 6.0 too; it's a sport, and the men's field has always been a splatfest.
Well, it has been like that ever since PChan got reward 90s PCS. I do think when he's at his best he can get 90 but for PChan to reach 96 PCS with clean program and almost 93 PCS for a program filled with errors, then other skaters (Hanyu, Javi, Machida) who were not so much behind him automatically got 90 PCS. I told you the judging is kinda a joke. PCS doesn't mean when the judges broke the 90 mark. :unsure:
 

HanDomi

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2014
I'm okay with him wanting the quad salchow, and he wants to keep going for it, then go for it! But when he fails the element, he should get deducted. He shouldn't be able to max out his point-earning potential by choreographing a fall. When he lands the 4S, that layout should earn him the most points. But when he doesn't, it shouldn't earn him more points than skating perfectly with two 4Ts (should be a PCS hit for falling too, but that obviously doesn't exist).

Actually he would be scoring more with two 4T's than with one 4T and fall on 4S because with quality he have on 4T and adding that 4T3T would be also the same quality, he would be propably receiving perfect 3.0 GOE for that, while he can receive 2.9 for solo quad

But you now, rules are the same for everyone.

Actually I don't think falling on quad is somehow very highly rewarded. You need to count everything into that. Let's say, nicely landed quad sal he would be able to receive about 12.5 points. But when he falls on FULLY rotated quad sal he receives 7 - 1 = which is only 6 pt from possible 12 points. I think it is fair enough, I don't know how diffrent it should be scored
 

Anastasi14

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 14, 2014
Of course it's too early to make a prediction and a lot can happen, so just for fun:
Ladies: my biggest hope is Gracie Gold, i think she can grow into a really great skater. I also think that one Russian girl will be on that podium (but you can't be sure who, because almost all of them will have a body changes), personally i keep my fingers crossed for Liza. But i think a lot of chances will have the youngest from age-eligible for the OG. And i hope that So Youn Park can win a medal.

Men: Patrick Chan - that curse must be broken!) I also hope to see Denis Ten on that podium. Think that Han Yan can be a contender too.

Dances - don't know, but i think Hawayek Baker can surprise us in this new cycle
 

Sandpiper

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 16, 2014
Actually he would be scoring more with two 4T's than with one 4T and fall on 4S because with quality he have on 4T and adding that 4T3T would be also the same quality, he would be propably receiving perfect 3.0 GOE for that, while he can receive 2.9 for solo quad

But you now, rules are the same for everyone.

Actually I don't think falling on quad is somehow very highly rewarded. You need to count everything into that. Let's say, nicely landed quad sal he would be able to receive about 12.5 points. But when he falls on FULLY rotated quad sal he receives 7 - 1 = which is only 6 pt from possible 12 points. I think it is fair enough, I don't know how diffrent it should be scored
I haven't done the calculations myself, but I've heard that he'll lose points by doing 2 4Ts because he'll lose the halfway bonus on one of his combinations. That seemed to make sense to me, judging by how the system currently is. I should probably run the calculations myself to confirm this though.

I never said the rules weren't the same for everyone. I don't agree with the rules, that's all. I like Hanyu. But I don't like a system that encourages "rotate and fall." From anyone.

When you consider that a triple lutz is only worth 6 points, and Dai's UR + two-footed quad got him 2 points (next to nothing, basically), getting 6 points for a fall and no PCS hit seems pretty generous to me. I think a fall should be worth about as much as one fewer revolution (e.g. fall on a quad toe, it's worth about as much as a triple toe).
 

HanDomi

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2014
I haven't done the calculations myself, but I've heard that he'll lose points by doing 2 4Ts because he'll lose the halfway bonus on one of his combinations. That seemed to make sense to me, judging by how the system currently is. I should probably run the calculations myself to confirm this though.
.


But I actually did :biggrin: Very rough, and fast but:

(It is TES just counted for jumps only)

With two 4T's +3F in first part of program and rest in 2nd+counting good GOE on 4T3T he could be receiving around 84.5-85 TES

With fall on 4S and counting deduction for fall he received at GPF 82.32 TES for jumps
 

Sandpiper

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 16, 2014
Okay, I recalculated this, and you're right, I was misinformed. He does indeed get more points by doing two 4Ts.

But the point still stands: a fall on a quad salchow is worth more than a "meh" triple lutz. And didn't Hanyu beat a nearly-clean Patrick Chan at that same Grand Prix Final, by 5 points TES, in the LP, despite the fall?
 

HanDomi

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2014
But the point still stands: a fall on a quad salchow is worth more than a "meh" triple lutz. And didn't Hanyu beat a nearly-clean Patrick Chan at that same Grand Prix Final, by 5 points TES, in the LP, despite the fall?

Actually as I remember Patrick did 4T2T instead 4T3T, but still Patrick has a little easier rest of program because, Hanyu can do 2x 3A while Patrick is having 2x 3 Ltz + 3A in first part
 

Sandpiper

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 16, 2014
That's why I said "nearly clean." I know Patrick mucked the 3T and didn't do a second 3A. Maybe my brain is too 6.0 and I should just go the way of the dinosaurs, but to me doubling a 3T (especially on the end of a quad) is a lesser problem than falling on your opening quad.

Even with Patrick's errors, it shouldn't enough for Hanyu to beat him by 5 points in the FS TES.
 

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2013
Country
United-States
Okay, I recalculated this, and you're right, I was misinformed. He does indeed get more points by doing two 4Ts.

But the point still stands: a fall on a quad salchow is worth more than a "meh" triple lutz. And didn't Hanyu beat a nearly-clean Patrick Chan at that same Grand Prix Final, by 5 points TES, in the LP, despite the fall?

It blows my mind on how hard it is to quantify the proper score for a fall. If you make a 4s fall worth less than a decent 3ltz then why go for it. If you make the 4s with a fall worth more you are encouraging a splatfest almost:scratch: It's not like I'm trying to identify a graviton or something but it feels like another dimension may be required. :bang:
 

HanDomi

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2014
Even with Patrick's errors, it shouldn't enough for Hanyu to beat him by 5 points in the FS TES.


It depends how you will look on that, because if you would take points for this fall quad sal completely out of program, so -6 points from Hanyu's TES he would be only 1 point on TES behind Patrick without having any points for this jump pass

and then when you will add my calculation with nice 4T3T instead of fall on 4S his TES would be around 8 points higher than Patrick's
 

Sandpiper

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 16, 2014
If you make a 4s fall worth less than a decent 3ltz then why go for it.
Because there's a big reward when you land it. :clap:

(Despite the snark, I agree with the point you're making. It's impossible to quantify these things properly in numbers).

It depends how you will look on that, because if you would take points for this fall quad sal completely out of program, so -6 points from Hanyu's TES he would be only 1 point on TES behind Patrick without any points for this jump pass
I don't understand what you're saying here. Are you saying 6 points is negligible so we shouldn't debate if 4S fall should be worth 6.5 (one extreme) or 0 (another extreme)?
 

HanDomi

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2014
I don't understand what you're saying here. Are you saying 6 points is negligible so we shouldn't debate if 4S fall should be worth 6.5 (one extreme) or 0 (another extreme)?


I just very hypotethical used fall=no points for the jump completely, so his TES even without that still would be huge. But I am going too crazy with that I think :biggrin:


I don't think fall on rotated quad should be penalized much more than it is now, maybe increasing deduction size with next falls would be good idea, like 1 , 3 ,5 as someone suggested on forum
 

Sandpiper

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 16, 2014
@Meoima
I know how he beat Patrick. I've seen the protocols. I'm not sure I agree with him beating Patrick by 5 points TES. I'm not sure I like a system that produced those numbers. That's my opinion.

@HanDomi
But 6 points is not negligible. I know his TES will be huge even without those 6 points, but consider: the freaking Sochi Olympics were decided by less than 6 points! If Hanyu got 0 points for his 4S fall, Patrick Chan would be Olympic champion. (I'm not saying Patrick Chan should be Olympic champion, but that's how much difference 6 points makes. And let's not even get into Vancouver...)

I don't think fall on rotated quad should be penalized much more than it is now, maybe increasing deduction size with next falls would be good idea, like 1 , 3 ,5 as someone suggested on forum
Heh, yours truly has suggested increasing deduction size for subsequent falls. :biggrin: But I'm sure I'm not the first or only one. I can deal with -2 for first fall, -3 for subsequent fall, something like that (sorry, -1 is too lenient considering the huge inflated marks everyone's posting these days).
 

Meoima

Match Penalty
Joined
Feb 13, 2014
I think ISU know that the deduction for the falls is too lenient but still they want to encourage the skaters to execute more difficult elements so they haven't changed the rules for deduction? I am curious about what they are thinking.

Maybe they want to reduce the raising TES of all skaters so they have just added the new Rules for UR and edges call? They are giving more power to the tech panel. I am not sure how all of this will turn out, though.
 

makaihime

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 20, 2014
@HanDomi
But 6 points is not negligible. I know his TES will be huge even without those 6 points, but consider: the freaking Sochi Olympics were decided by less than 6 points! If Hanyu got 0 points for his 4S fall, Patrick Chan would be Olympic champion. (I'm not saying Patrick Chan should be Olympic champion, but that's how much difference 6 points makes. And let's not even get into Vancouver...)

I'm not sure what argument you are trying to make with that one. That the 6 point lead is significant because it was ONLY 6 points and if the rules was that if someone falls on a jump it would equates to the entire jump being invalidated which would mean Chan instead of Hanyu becomes OGM? Following that then I'm willing to bet barely anyone will attempt a quad, hence everyone's placement will be different and not just 1-2.
 

Meoima

Match Penalty
Joined
Feb 13, 2014
But 6 points is not negligible. I know his TES will be huge even without those 6 points, but consider: the freaking Sochi Olympics were decided by less than 6 points! If Hanyu got 0 points for his 4S fall, Patrick Chan would be Olympic champion.
If a fall on the 4S equal to 0 point, then stumble and 2 foot landing should receive 2 points deduction each. PChan stumbled in 3 jumps. 4T, 3A and the 2A.
They were both equally messy in the long program. It's hard to say which performance was worse. :disapp: if it were me, both could have been reduced 5 points each in the PCS.
 

Sandpiper

Record Breaker
Joined
Apr 16, 2014
^^My only argument is that 6 points isn't negligible (see my entire conversation with HanDomi). I do not think Patrick Chan should've won the Olympics, especially considering his SP. They were both a mess in the LP. Of course everyone's layouts will be different if falls were worth 0 points--in fact, that's my point: falls being worth 6.5 has an effect; those points aren't negligible.

(I will note, however: Plenty of innovations and daring elements took place under 6.0, which was much harsher toward falls. But that's a totally different conversation).

Maybe they want to reduce the raising TES of all skaters so they have just added the new Rules for UR and edges call?
Seems like the wrong direction to move in, imo. Imagine someone like Mao losing and losing to girls with falls, even when she lands her jumps on one foot and continues doing 3A until she's 27. (I'm not saying UR and edge problems should go undetected. Just that punishing them more and leaving the fall deduction the same will create even more baffling results). Also, if the ISU wants to encourage people to take risks, I don't think increasing edge/UR penalty is going to do that (the exact opposite, in fact).
 

Meoima

Match Penalty
Joined
Feb 13, 2014
Seems like the wrong direction to move in, imo. Imagine someone like Mao losing and losing to girls with falls, even when she lands her jumps on one foot and continues doing 3A until she's 27. (I'm not saying UR and edge problems should go undetected. Just that punishing them more and leaving the fall deduction the same will create even more baffling results). Also, if the ISU wants to encourage people to take risks, I don't think increasing edge/UR penalty is going to do that (the exact opposite, in fact).
I think they will use UR with the falls. Maybe they keep the -1 point deduction with the fall to encourage skaters try hard jumps, but UR and edge calls might be applied for the falls if they want to reduce the TES.

I mean, they can use the UR and edge calls to reduce the points if skater falls. The thing is, they can also abuse that rules to hold down skaters that are not their favorites.
 

wonderlen3000

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2008
If a fall on jump get 'zero' we will see no one will be attempting quad or 3+3 for the ladies. It will be like going back to 40-50 years ago where everyone is doing double and triple.
I do think a fall should be '-2' deduction instead of one, considering GOE can go up to +3.
 
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