After two events, we've had 23 men compete, and a few would-be contenders for the Grand Prix Finale have been knocked out. The prospects for the top four from the North American leg of the series:
Skate America:
1. Tatsuki Machida: Need only medal at Trophée Eric Bompard, where the most consistent of his competition will be Han Yan, and there's a possibility that Denis Ten, Florent Amodio, or even Adam Rippon could also beat him, but he might need to be weaker than he was in Chicago and then have really bad luck for them all to suddenly put it together. So barring that highly improbable scenario, he's probably in.
2. Jason Brown: Needs to win in Russia to seal it, for which he'd probably need some help from Javier Fernandez, though he might just get that. If he doesn't, silver and a pretty good shot is a beat easier; his main threats would be Michal Brezina, Takahiko Kozuka, Max Aaron, Maxim Kovtun, or possibly Sergei Voronov, Artur Gachinski(if he suddenly turns things around), or lately Stephen Carriere. But the first two haven't been skating well lately, and the others he should beat so long as he doesn't have a bad day, so all in all his chances are pretty good.
3. Nam Nguyen: To seal it would need to win in China, where between Yuzuru Hanyu and Yan it'll be hard for him to even get silver and a chance, and that's leaving out the other candidates for even bronze.
4. Denis Ten: To have a good chance he'd have to win in Paris, which he actually might do if he suddenly went lights out, but even then it wouldn't be easy to beat Machida, and Yan might also still threaten, though he'd then have a better shot of silver and not being entirely out of it.
Skate Canada:
1. Takahiko Mura: Need only medal in Japan, which actually should not be that hard for him to do, since if he skates well the only person likely to beat him is Hanyu or possibly a lights-out Jeremy Abbott. But his record being what it is, there's no certainty he'll skate well.
2. Javier Fernandez: Needs to win in Russia to seal it, which he's more likely than not to do unless he skates badly. Even if he does skate badly, to lose in this field would probably require one of Brown, Brezina, or Kozuka to skate well, and the way the last two have been skating lately, it doesn't seem likely that he'll get less than silver, with which his chances are still good, and to be knocked off the podium and out of contention is even more unlikely.
3. Max Aaron: Also would need to win Russia, but for him that would be a very big ask, and even for silver and a chance he'd probably need help from all the others mentioned above, though that he might just get.
4. Stephen Carriere: Would need to win Russia just for a chance, and even silver there seems a big ask for him.
Out of contention, but might be a factor at their other events:
Jeremy Abbott: 5th at Skate America, but if he can just skate better has a good chance of being a factor in Japan(or maybe just winning bronze there)
Florent Amodio: 6th at Skate Canada, but might put it together better and mix things up in France.
Michal Brezina, Takahiko Kozuka, & Artur Gachinski: 7th-9th at Skate Canada, but the first two especially have the potential to do better in Russia, and it's still not entirely impossible for the third either
Adam Rippon: 10th in Skate Canada, but if he does turn things around in Paris the field is such he might not even need to be perfect to mix things up
Contenders yet to skate:
Han Yan
Yuzuru Hanyu
Maxim Kovtun(possibly)
Current Standings
http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2014/gpsmen.htm
Skate America:
1. Tatsuki Machida: Need only medal at Trophée Eric Bompard, where the most consistent of his competition will be Han Yan, and there's a possibility that Denis Ten, Florent Amodio, or even Adam Rippon could also beat him, but he might need to be weaker than he was in Chicago and then have really bad luck for them all to suddenly put it together. So barring that highly improbable scenario, he's probably in.
2. Jason Brown: Needs to win in Russia to seal it, for which he'd probably need some help from Javier Fernandez, though he might just get that. If he doesn't, silver and a pretty good shot is a beat easier; his main threats would be Michal Brezina, Takahiko Kozuka, Max Aaron, Maxim Kovtun, or possibly Sergei Voronov, Artur Gachinski(if he suddenly turns things around), or lately Stephen Carriere. But the first two haven't been skating well lately, and the others he should beat so long as he doesn't have a bad day, so all in all his chances are pretty good.
3. Nam Nguyen: To seal it would need to win in China, where between Yuzuru Hanyu and Yan it'll be hard for him to even get silver and a chance, and that's leaving out the other candidates for even bronze.
4. Denis Ten: To have a good chance he'd have to win in Paris, which he actually might do if he suddenly went lights out, but even then it wouldn't be easy to beat Machida, and Yan might also still threaten, though he'd then have a better shot of silver and not being entirely out of it.
Skate Canada:
1. Takahiko Mura: Need only medal in Japan, which actually should not be that hard for him to do, since if he skates well the only person likely to beat him is Hanyu or possibly a lights-out Jeremy Abbott. But his record being what it is, there's no certainty he'll skate well.
2. Javier Fernandez: Needs to win in Russia to seal it, which he's more likely than not to do unless he skates badly. Even if he does skate badly, to lose in this field would probably require one of Brown, Brezina, or Kozuka to skate well, and the way the last two have been skating lately, it doesn't seem likely that he'll get less than silver, with which his chances are still good, and to be knocked off the podium and out of contention is even more unlikely.
3. Max Aaron: Also would need to win Russia, but for him that would be a very big ask, and even for silver and a chance he'd probably need help from all the others mentioned above, though that he might just get.
4. Stephen Carriere: Would need to win Russia just for a chance, and even silver there seems a big ask for him.
Out of contention, but might be a factor at their other events:
Jeremy Abbott: 5th at Skate America, but if he can just skate better has a good chance of being a factor in Japan(or maybe just winning bronze there)
Florent Amodio: 6th at Skate Canada, but might put it together better and mix things up in France.
Michal Brezina, Takahiko Kozuka, & Artur Gachinski: 7th-9th at Skate Canada, but the first two especially have the potential to do better in Russia, and it's still not entirely impossible for the third either
Adam Rippon: 10th in Skate Canada, but if he does turn things around in Paris the field is such he might not even need to be perfect to mix things up
Contenders yet to skate:
Han Yan
Yuzuru Hanyu
Maxim Kovtun(possibly)
Current Standings
http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2014/gpsmen.htm
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