After two events, a bunch of Russians, and 22 competitors skating so far, I'm not sure we've even any real contenders knocked out yet, though a serious question must now be raised if any non-Russians can do well enough to make it in. Studying the ladies who have competed so far:
Skate America:
1. Elena Radionova: Need only medal in France, where if she skates well her only threats will be Julia Lipnitskaia or possibly Ashley Wagner, so this should be easy barring disaster.
2. Elizaveta Tuktamisheva: Would need a win in China to seal it, where it'll be pretty hard for her to beat Lipnitskaia. But silver and a very good chance is a bit easier; while she would need to beat Kanako Murakami and Zijun Li, and it's not entirely impossible even Polina Edmunds could be a threat, she is capable of winning against them, Li especially, and even if she doesn't, she has an even better chance for bronze, and then it's as the chips fall.
3. Gracie Gold: Would need to win Japan to seal it, which she might just do, especially if she gets any help from Adelina Sotnikova. But even if she doesn't, for silver and as the chips fall, her competition consists of Kanako Murakami, Satoko Miyahara, Alena Leonova, possibly Elene Gedevanishvili or Polina Edmunds, all of whom she should beat if she's on enough, though Murakami may be the hardest. The real question there is whether or not she will be.
4. Samantha Cesario: For a chance would have to win in France, where the field's probably too competitive for even a real shot at silver.
Skate Canada:
1. Anna Pogorilaya: Need only medal in Russia, which she just might win, though she probably would really need help from Sotnikova. But even if she doesn't get that, the rest of the field is such that silver would still be hers unless she skates badly(which perhaps there is a lingering chance of).
2. Ashley Wagner: To seal it would need to win in Paris, where the odds are against her besting either Radionova or Lipnitskaia. But the rest of the field is such her chances of bronze and as the chips fall are pretty good, unless she has a Japan Open-level of problems.
3. Satoko Miyahara: Would need to win in Japan to seal it. For that she's definitely need some help from Gold, Sotnikova, and Murakami, which will make it difficult to even get silver. But while the odds are against her, it's still not entirely impossible she could skate lights-out and then get lucky.
4. Courtney Hicks: For a chance would need to win in France, and in that field it's highly unlikely even silver could happen.
Out of contention, but a possible factor at other events:
Mirai Nagasu & Alena Leonova: 6th at Skate America & Skate Canada respectively, but looking to fight back at their second events, could always shock someone in Russia or Japan respectively.
Elene Gedevanishvili: 7th at Skate America, probably won't be a factor in Japan but you never know.
Contenders yet to skate:
Kanako Murakami
Julia Lipnitskaia
Adelina Sotnikova
Zijun Li(possibly)
Current Standings
http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2014/gpsladies.htm
Skate America:
1. Elena Radionova: Need only medal in France, where if she skates well her only threats will be Julia Lipnitskaia or possibly Ashley Wagner, so this should be easy barring disaster.
2. Elizaveta Tuktamisheva: Would need a win in China to seal it, where it'll be pretty hard for her to beat Lipnitskaia. But silver and a very good chance is a bit easier; while she would need to beat Kanako Murakami and Zijun Li, and it's not entirely impossible even Polina Edmunds could be a threat, she is capable of winning against them, Li especially, and even if she doesn't, she has an even better chance for bronze, and then it's as the chips fall.
3. Gracie Gold: Would need to win Japan to seal it, which she might just do, especially if she gets any help from Adelina Sotnikova. But even if she doesn't, for silver and as the chips fall, her competition consists of Kanako Murakami, Satoko Miyahara, Alena Leonova, possibly Elene Gedevanishvili or Polina Edmunds, all of whom she should beat if she's on enough, though Murakami may be the hardest. The real question there is whether or not she will be.
4. Samantha Cesario: For a chance would have to win in France, where the field's probably too competitive for even a real shot at silver.
Skate Canada:
1. Anna Pogorilaya: Need only medal in Russia, which she just might win, though she probably would really need help from Sotnikova. But even if she doesn't get that, the rest of the field is such that silver would still be hers unless she skates badly(which perhaps there is a lingering chance of).
2. Ashley Wagner: To seal it would need to win in Paris, where the odds are against her besting either Radionova or Lipnitskaia. But the rest of the field is such her chances of bronze and as the chips fall are pretty good, unless she has a Japan Open-level of problems.
3. Satoko Miyahara: Would need to win in Japan to seal it. For that she's definitely need some help from Gold, Sotnikova, and Murakami, which will make it difficult to even get silver. But while the odds are against her, it's still not entirely impossible she could skate lights-out and then get lucky.
4. Courtney Hicks: For a chance would need to win in France, and in that field it's highly unlikely even silver could happen.
Out of contention, but a possible factor at other events:
Mirai Nagasu & Alena Leonova: 6th at Skate America & Skate Canada respectively, but looking to fight back at their second events, could always shock someone in Russia or Japan respectively.
Elene Gedevanishvili: 7th at Skate America, probably won't be a factor in Japan but you never know.
Contenders yet to skate:
Kanako Murakami
Julia Lipnitskaia
Adelina Sotnikova
Zijun Li(possibly)
Current Standings
http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2014/gpsladies.htm
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