Dance Prospects After Two and Four Events

So far over two events, like in the pairs we've had 15 teams compete, and so far there have been no real eliminations at all. The top fours from the North American leg of the series:

Skate America:

1. Madison Chock & Evan Bates: Need only medal in Russia. Actually might have a lot of trouble getting higher than bronze thanks to Russian Olympic Bronze Medalist Great Battle Royale scheduled to take place there, but even if both the teams involved in that live up to the expectations, outside them their only threats are Alexandra Stepanova & Ivan Bukin, who they should have no trouble beating if they skate clean, and of course even with 4th they hold onto a good chance.

2. Maia & Alex Shibutani: Need to win in China to seal it, where it'll be hard for them to beat Anna Cappellini & Luca Lanotte, and there's a good chance Elena Ilinykh & Ruslan Zhiganshin will knock them down to bronze. But even then it would still be as the chips fall, and the only remote threat to their being knocked off the podium are Gabriella Papadakis & Guillaume Cizeron, and I don't *think* that's going to happen just yet.

3. Alexandra Stepanova & Ivan Bukin: Would have to win Russia to seal it, where, as noted above, they'll be up against it even for bronze, let alone silver and a chance, unless one of other two other Russian teams had a huge letdown.

4. Elizabeth Paradis & Francois-Xavier Ouelette: Both events complete, 7th in Canada indicates just making the top four here was their victory.

Skate Canada:

1. Kaitlyn Weaver & Andrew Pojé: Need only medal in Japan, where the only team possibly capable of beating them are Victoria Sinitsina & Nikita Katsalapov.

2. Piper Gilles & Paul Poirier: Would need to win in France to seal it, which probably isn't happening against Cappellini & Lanotte. But as in pairs, two silvers ought to be enough, and that they have a better shot at, especially as they've already beaten Hubbell & Donohue, but their bigger competition for it might be Papadakis & Cizeron, and on home ice for the latter they might have to hope they hold off Hubbell & Donohue for bronze and then it's as the chips fall.

3. Madison Hubbell & Zachary Donohue: Also probably not winning in France, and they actually need the silver, and may find it harder to get against the other two teams; they'll need to be at top of their game and even then cross their fingers, both at this event and then at the other ones.

4. Ksenia Monko & Kirill Khavalian: To have a chance would have to win in Japan, where between Weaver & Pojé and Sinitsina & Katsalpov even silver looks improbable.

Contenders yet to skate:

Anna Cappellini & Luca Lanotte
Elena Ilinykh & Ruslan Zhiganshin
Victoria Sinitsina & Nikita Katsalapov

Current Standings in Ice Dance
http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2014/gpsdance.htm

Papadakis / Cizeron will have to go up a lot, especially in the FD, to medal even in France. Their score in the Autumn Classic was

FD. 90.46 (a PB)
SD 59.74
TOTAL. 150.20. (a PB)

Gilles & Poirier, Hubbell & Donohue, and if they don't implode again, Paul & Islam, all have a chance to.score higher than Papadakis & Cuzeron...and that's before you figure in Cappellini & Lanotte.

Also Coomes & Buckland scored very high at Cup of Nice-an SD score higher than Shibutanis. They could mix things up, especially in Japan.

dorispulaski said:

Papadakis / Cizeron will have to go up a lot, especially in the FD, to medal even in France. Their score in the Autumn Classic was

FD. 90.46 (a PB)
SD 59.74
TOTAL. 150.20. (a PB)

Gilles & Poirier, Hubbell & Donohue, and if they don't implode again, Paul & Islam, all have a chance to.score higher than Papadakis & Cuzeron...and that's before you figure in Cappellini & Lanotte.

Also Coomes & Buckland scored very high at Cup of Nice-an SD score higher than Shibutanis. They could mix things up, especially in Japan.

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I agree that C/B (Coomes/Buckland) will be a factor this season. I'm not sure that judges will accept russian new teams with wide open arms, and with Bobrova/Soloviev out of picture there's a possibility for them to go to GPF. I also think that there will be no russian teams in GPF this year. But it's too soon to say for sure.

I think the Shibutanis should be able to get silver at COC and a spot in the GPF. As it stands right now, they have the third highest SD/FD/overall score. They, generally, tend to do better (in levels) in their second event, so I expect they will score higher in TES. Also judges seem to like the execution of their programs judging by the strong +GOE they have received at Skate America (despite not getting all the levels).

Cappellini/Lanotte should win COC, but we'll see.

I think Illynkh/Zhiganshin are a huge wild card. I do not expect them to be up to snuff on levels in their first event, but I do think they have a shot at the podium.

Coomes/Buckland have a good shot at GPF.

Mrs. P said:

I think the Shibutanis should be able to get silver at COC and a spot in the GPF. As it stands right now, they have the third highest SD/FD/overall score. They, generally, tend to do better (in levels) in their second event, so I expect they will score higher in TES. Also judges seem to like the execution of their programs judging by the strong +GOE they have received at Skate America (despite not getting all the levels).

Cappellini/Lanotte should win COC, but we'll see.

I think Illynkh/Zhiganshin are a huge wild card. I do not expect them to be up to snuff on levels in their first event, but I do think they have a shot at the podium.

Coomes/Buckland have a good shot at GPF.

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And what about Zueva's blue eyed russian beauties S/K? Do you think they're huge wild card too? I have a feeling that their chances are bigger for some reason

Snow63 said:

And what about Zueva's blue eyed russian beauties S/K? Do you think they're huge wild card too? I have a feeling that their chances are bigger for some reason

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They seem to be getting more backing by the fed and the county's skating elite for whatever reason. But yes, they're a total wildcard as well since Katsalapov is prone to making silly errors.

And I always felt Nikita was the weaker partner in his previous pairing (a relatively unstable lifter, and.occasionally likely to error in the twizzles), and so was Victoria the weaker basic skater, blue eyes or not.. But, as you say, they seem to be the favored couple by their fed. Yes, both teams are wild cards., IMO.

Chock and Bates may not win CoR due to Russian home cooking but I doubt they'll be knocked all the way down to bronze. For both new Russian teams to be cracking 100 in the FD on par with Madi and Evan is a big ask even for the Russian federation.

Think Gilles & Poirier will have no trouble defeating H/D in France and will probably get to the final. The Shibs are in a slightly more precarious position but they should also make it.

The final spot will go to whichever Russian team finishes higher at CoR.

And Maddy & Evan hit over 100 in the FD at Nebelhorn as well as at SkAm. They still have the highest SD score of the season. I think they have a good shot, though not a guarantee, of making the GPF.

I think both USA couples will have a spot at GPF, easy, W&P and C&L too.
C&B will win in Russia too. Maybe not with the same points but they will.

The rest (how many?) are between S&B, G&P, H&D (USA), P&C.

I&Z and S&K I have no idea. I think the first couple is composed by the strongest of the two elements from the previous couples, but that's just my opinion. I don't know about the Russian Fed, but I think the judges likes Elena, so you never know.

Myself, I don't care that much about winning this season, let alone a GP or GPF.
It's a whole new start for them. The objective should be to improve year by year, establish themself in 4 years time and be ready for S. Korea.
I'll be more than happy if they skate well, and show their potential, for now. :yes:

dorispulaski said:

Papadakis / Cizeron will have to go up a lot, especially in the FD, to medal even in France. Their score in the Autumn Classic was

FD. 90.46 (a PB)
SD 59.74
TOTAL. 150.20. (a PB)

Gilles & Poirier, Hubbell & Donohue, and if they don't implode again, Paul & Islam, all have a chance to.score higher than Papadakis & Cuzeron...and that's before you figure in Cappellini & Lanotte.

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Well now that we've seen Cup of China, it makes you wonder what is going to happen in France. It's much more unpredictable than before.

Papadakis & Cizeron really moved up the standings and ended up finishing ahead of several teams who beat them at Worlds only a few months ago. At Worlds, P&C finished 13th, behind Cappelini & Lanotte and The Shibutanis who they beat this week, but also behind Paul & Islam. At this event P&C moved way ahead of Paul & Islam and then ended up beating C&L and The Shibs, too. Obviously China was an off skate for C&L, so perhaps they will do better in France.

Looks like the judges were pretty lukewarm towards Paul & Islam in China, so I don't see them getting to the podium in France either unless something unusual happens. And now I'm wondering how Gilles & Poirier are going to do against Papadakis & Cizeron. G&P finished 5 spots ahead of P&C at Worlds, but now it's hard to say what will happen as a result of the Cup of China numbers for P&C. G&P did get good numbers at Skate Canada, but I think they will have to make sure to skate 2 clean programs here, or they're at risk of not making the podium. Same thing goes for Hubbell & Donohue. They need to be on in France with no unexpected falls at at the end like at SC. And because H&D haven't been at Worlds since 2012, it's hard to know how they will rank against some of the teams there who they haven't competed against for a while.

Ryan O said:

Well now that we've seen Cup of China, it makes you wonder what is going to happen in France. It's much more unpredictable than before.

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If they skate like they did in China I think they will win. No matter how the others will do.
Presuming they all skate well, I would still have the French as winners.
They have the best programs.

Predictions for GPF

1. Weaver/Poje
2. Chock and Bates
3. Cappellini and Lannote
4. Shibs
5. Gilles and Poirier
6. Papdakis and Cizeron
I think the Russians are still in the works and will be pushed out by the unexpected French. Although on the rise, I think the French will place 4th in France, products of the nerves that such a surprising win in china.

I think the top 5 will be the following:

1. Chock and Bates - choreographically_ a very solid program, unique, original, and very dancey.
2. Weaver and Poje - aesthetically beautiful, typical FD number but not original in concept

then for the 3rd, any of these 3 couples
Papdakis and Cizeron
the Shibs
I/Z

Now that Cappellini and Lannote have scratched from the French GP, I am slotting in the Shibs. It's a wild card and a very North American bent but I think the Russians (both) and Papdakis and Cizeron are still too new. The couple I really enjoy watching are Gilles and Poirier. They are technically strong and so different in their presentations. It's not quite their time but watch them!

slider11 said:

Now that Cappellini and Lannote have scratched from the French GP, I am slotting in the Shibs. It's a wild card and a very North American bent but I think the Russians (both) and Papdakis and Cizeron are still too new. The couple I really enjoy watching are Gilles and Poirier. They are technically strong and so different in their presentations. It's not quite their time but watch them!

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To get in or are you talking placement?

I don't think Russia will have any couple in Ice Dance, are they?

Alba said:

I don't think Russia will have any couple in Ice Dance, are they?

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Illynkh/Zhiganshin still have a chance if the following happens

TEB:
1.) Gilles/Porirer OR Papadakis/Cizeron
2.) Papadkis/Cizeron OR Gilles/Poirier
3.) Hubbell/Donohue

NHK
1.) Weaver/Poje
2.) Any team not named Coomes/Buckland.
3.) Coomes/Buckland

The results would be

Chock/Bates (30)
Weaver/Poje (30)
Papadakis/Cizeron (28 or 30)
Gilles/Portier (26 or 28)
Shibutanis (26)

***
Illynkh/Zhiganshin (22)
Hubbell/Donhue and Coomes/Buckland, 22, lose due to placement tiebreaker.

Now if Katslapov/Sinitsina gets 2nd at NHK, they will be in a tiebreaker situuation with I/Z. Highest score would win.

So it's possible for one Russian team to get in.

I think we'll have these teams in GPF
Chock/Bates
Weaver/Poje
Papadakis/Cizeron
Gilles/Portier
Shibutanis

Any of the three
Coomes/Buckland - if they are able to earn scores in the range 158 - 160, they'll make it.
Illynkh/Zhiganshin assuming the other Russian team will score poorly in NHK and Brits will score lower than 158
Katslapov/Sinitsina if they score higher NHK. A long shot unless they place second and outscoring the Brits by a mile :think:

I had a thought today that we'll probably see some dirty politiking at NHK. RusFed will do ANYTHING they could to drag russian dance team in GPF. The question is who they will choose. I/Z or S/K?
There will be no British tech controller (probably), so tech panel will probably be not so understanding where Coomes/Buckland are concerned. I really hope I'm wrong, but I think that there's a possibility that we'll see Zagreb 2.0 at NHK this season.

P.S. But of course I believe in fair judging.
And there's always a possibility that Coomes/Buckland will make mistakes themself, but that's gonna be interesting anyway.