What NHK skaters need for GPF

Sandpiper · Nov 27, 2014

SkatingFun said:
whoever attended CoC practice sessions knew that how much better Polina can deliver than Yulia and other skaters, the criminal judge panel just simply knock her out intentionally so low on her SP to give Zero chance for her to beat Yulia. Yulia was horrible during all practice sessions, she completely lost her 3Lz.

All those speeds and skating skills can only be judged or watched when all skaters on the ice same time during practice, you can view who is slower.

These are precise reports from a skating professional in China...

Polina fell in the SP and didn't complete a combo. If anything she was overscored. (And yes, Yulia was also overscored, in the LP)

It's hilarious that you accuse the judging panel of being "criminal," but at the same time advise people to judge Yulia and Polina based on their practices. Isn't that exactly what judges shouldn't do? Also, judging "how much better Polina can deliver" based on her practices? Well, too bad she didn't deliver in competition. There was one woman who did though. Her name is Elizaveta Tuktamysheva--are you suggesting Polina should've gotten marked higher than Liza too, because of some rumours about practices?

Btw, Yulia made a decent 3Lz-2T attempt at TEB. She did get a ! (not new) and a < (which is slightly worrying)--but she attempted the combo near the very end of her skate, and gave it a pretty good shot. Doesn't seem like she completely lost her lutz.

Snow63 · Nov 27, 2014

People still talking about Yulia's lutz. :no: She just can't jump from outside edge properly yet. She said it enough times. She got problems with new boots, hello? She'll be doing 3lz-3t in no time. Probably at Euros and Worlds. You can mark my words if you want.

silverlake22 · Nov 27, 2014

Eladola said:
I would deem Radionova pretty unbeatable at the moment, Tukta is pretty solid at the moment but not unbeatable,
You still assume she'll probably medal though, I would say at least one medal could go to a non Russian with Lips going
through stuff and Pogs under performing in Russia and also the lowest scorer of the bunch.

I think Pogo's combined total score was higher than Lip, even with the bad skate in China. She had 191+ in Skate Canada. And if Julia returns to her previous form I think her scores will be high. So I think the Russians could definitely sweep the podium at the GPF. It's looking like scoring 190+ will be hard for any of Ashley, Gracie, or Polina at this point in the season. They all seem to skate better later in the season. If everyone skates well, it's anyone's guess the placements. But right now the Russians are still more reliable than most of the Americans.

Jammers · Nov 27, 2014

silverlake22 said:
I think Pogo's combined total score was higher than Lip, even with the bad skate in China. She had 191+ in Skate Canada. And if Julia returns to her previous form I think her scores will be high. So I think the Russians could definitely sweep the podium at the GPF. It's looking like scoring 190+ will be hard for any of Ashley, Gracie, or Polina at this point in the season. They all seem to skate better later in the season. If everyone skates well, it's anyone's guess the placements. But right now the Russians are still more reliable than most of the Americans.

If Gracie makes the GPF and skates clean at the GPF she will easily top 190+.

silverlake22 · Nov 27, 2014

Jammers said:
If Gracie makes the GPF and skates clean at the GPF she will easily top 190+.

Yes but those are 2 big IFs. Gracie usually skates better later in the season. She has broken 200 before so above 190 is certainly possible, I'm just not sure how likely given the timing of everything and how awful her FS is. I really hope she gets a new FS before the end of the season. I like the dress but that program is dull and dated and does not suit her at all. I wouldn't have an issue with Gracie hamming up her show girl side by skating to big band music or some upbeat broadway tune, but the POTO ballad mix with lyrics is just :drama:

Also the point I was trying to make is that I think any and all of the Russian girls in GPF could break 200 points skating well at this point in the season. Gracie could too but she's way less consistent, and for Polina and Ashley I think it would be hard to score that high ATM. I think the people who have already written off Julia and Anna as non factors because of one bad competition are unwise. They have good track records and have put up a lot of high scores.

Mista Ekko · Nov 28, 2014

Pairs

After the SP score, Yu\Jin need to stay in 3rd with at least 115.76 for the final

If D\R want to arrive at GPF as the no.1 pair above S\K they need to score 138.35.

Ladies

Still not clear for the ladies, Wagner still alive, if Leonova gets 1st or 2nd she's in,
Leonova has a 6 place finish so she's out anyways

If Leonova fails and the top 2 are from the 3 former bronzers than whoever finishes 2nd will need:

Gold - 116.21
Miyahara - 121.31
Murakami - 129.98

If Leonova wins and the 2nd place finisher doesn't reach the score they'll still be in behind Wagner

Men

Well, Not clearer here either, But working under the assumption that top 5 will stay top 5, Because of their lead over 6
and their repertoires compared to the others, Mura probably has it, Cause he can finish 5th and still qualify.

If Hanyu or Voronov finish 4th or higher they're in, If their 5th they need to win a tie breaker with brown with:

Voronov - 138.81
Hanyu - 154.18 (mind you he just got 154.60 with 5 deductions at COC)

If Abbott wants to make it he needs to win, and have one of Voronov or Hanyu finish 4th and out of the final,
Or finish 2nd with a score higher than at least 168.90, And have one of Voronov or Hanyu finish 5th and win a tie breaker with them.

Sasha'sSpins · Nov 28, 2014

NMURA said:
I think Edmunds will be deliberately held down in the SP so that Gold can have the better chance. She has no chance to win. You can forget that scenario.

Well as it turned out, Edmunds held herself down by bombing the SP while Gracie was awesome.

Mrs. P · Nov 28, 2014

Status of men after NHK SP:

* We have three people (Machida, Fernandez and Kovtun) who have locked spots (Kovtun, 30; Fernandez and Machida 28)
* Mura in the lead, but can drop as low as 5th and still get the spot (30/28/26/24/22). I don't see him dropping further than that. Spot #4 is pretty secure.

Which means who gets Spot #5 & 6?
* Brown is currently in the #4 spot with 20 points and a total score of 469.73.
* Abbott needs to stay in second or rise up to 1st to get a chance at will likely be a final spot. He will need to score 168.89 if he is in 2nd to win a tiebreaker against Jason Brown. That will require a clean program with a quad.
* Hanyu is within striking distance of 4th, which would have him pass Jason with 22 points. But if he stays in 5th, he will have to score more than 154.17 to pass Jason.
* Voronov is in with a 4th place finish, but if he drops to 5th, he would have to score more than 138.81 in the FS to pass Jason for the final spot.

TL;DR: If Hanyu and Voronov both finish 4th place and higher, they will get the final two spots, even if Jeremy finishes 2nd (They would finish with 24 or 22 points, which would beat 20 points Jeremy would earn with 2nd and 5th place finishes on the GP).

If one of them drops to 5th and Jeremy stays in 2nd place, then it's a tiebreaker situation between Jeremy, Jason and Hanyu/Voronov for spot #6. (With whoever of Hanyu/Voronov finishes 4th and higher.)

I think it's unlikely anyone will fall to 6th place. But who knows.

Icey · Nov 28, 2014

My head's spinning lmao.

Meoima · Nov 28, 2014

I hope the judges will not allow Yuzuru to get into GPF. He shouldn't skate in the first place with his health condition.

cheerknithanson · Nov 28, 2014

Mrs. P said:
Status of men after NHK SP:

* We have three people (Machida, Fernandez and Kovtun) who have locked spots (Kovtun, 30; Fernandez and Machida 28)
* Mura in the lead, but can drop as low as 5th and still get the spot (30/28/26/24/22). I don't see him dropping further than that. Spot #4 is pretty secure.

Which means who gets Spot #5 & 6?
* Brown is currently in the #4 spot with 20 points and a total score of 469.73.
* Abbott needs to stay in second or rise up to 1st to get a chance at will likely be a final spot. He will need to score 168.89 if he is in 2nd to win a tiebreaker against Jason Brown. That will require a clean program with a quad.
* Hanyu is within striking distance of 4th, which would have him pass Jason with 20 points. But if he stays in 5th, he will have to score more than 154.17 to pass Jason.
* Voronov is in with a 4th place finish, but if he drops to 5th, he would have to score more than 138.81 in the FS to pass Jason for the final spot.

TL;DR: If Hanyu and Voronov both finish 4th place and higher, they will get the final two spots, even if Jeremy finishes 2nd (They would finish with 24 or 22 points, which would beat 20 points Jeremy would earn with 2nd and 5th place finishes on the GP).

If one of them drops to 5th and Jeremy stays in 2nd place, then it's a tiebreaker situation between Jeremy, Jason and Hanyu/Voronov for spot #6

I think it's unlikely anyone will fall to 6th place. But who knows.

Nice calculations and strategy layout! Plus scenario layouts! :clap:

HanDomi · Nov 28, 2014

Meoima said:
I hope the judges will not allow Yuzuru to get into GPF. He shouldn't skate in the first place with his health condition.

Any idea what they can do if he skates clean

?

tomorrow everything can happen, everything will depend on Yuzuru physical state and if he can hold it together tomorrow

Meoima · Nov 28, 2014

HanDomi said:
Any idea what they can do if he skates clean ?
tomorrow everything can happen, everything will depend on Yuzuru physical state and if he can hold it together tomorrow

I couldn't believe there is a day when his fans are discussing how the judges should do he will not get into GPF.

but yeah, as much as I love watching him. I'd rather him have a long rest, he still has 5 different injuries on his body. No need for GPF. He still has Nationals, 4CC (if they will send him there) and Worlds to worry over.

HanDomi · Nov 28, 2014

Meoima said:
I couldn't believe there is a day when his fans are discussing how the judges should do he will not get into GPF. but yeah, as much as I love watching him. I'd rather him have a long rest, he still has 5 different injuries on his body. No need for GPF. He still has Nationals, 4CC (if they will send him there) and Worlds to worry over.

after all this effort let him go to the GPF Meoima, of course if he will get it tomorrow :drama:

foruiz · Nov 28, 2014

Meoima said:
I hope the judges will not allow Yuzuru to get into GPF. He shouldn't skate in the first place with his health condition.

Hmm.... maybe that is what the bouncers of Yuzuru were there for!!! So that no one would snatch and hide him away because that could be the first step of him not having to skate the FP and ultimately not going to GPF :scratch: Alright, I am running away now :hijacked:

Meoima · Nov 28, 2014

HanDomi said:
after all this effort let him go to the GPF Meoima, of course if he will get it tomorrow

Well, if anything Yuzuru and Han Yan deserve all my respect for showing up at their 2nd GPs. I have to call them idiots but I admire them for their competitiveness.

no GPF is not the end of the career for both of them. They are still young and even if they suddenly decided to take a rest from this season I'd support them anyways.
But for sure they will go to nationals, 4CC and Worlds.

anyanka · Nov 29, 2014

Since Yu / Jin got bronze and 182 final score, do they get the 6th GPF spot over Tarasova / Morozov?

Mrs. P · Nov 29, 2014

anyanka said:
Since Yu / Jin got bronze and 182 final score, do they get the 6th GPF spot over Tarasova / Morozov?

Yes.

Final result.

1.) Stolbova/Klimov - 30 (421.78 total score)
2.) Duhmel/Radford - 30 (410.52 total score)
3.) Kavaguti/Smirnov - 28 (392.76 total score)
4.) Peng/Zhang - 26 (376.48 total score; 1st place tiebreaker)
5.)Sui/Han - 26 (385.32 total score)
6.) Yu/Jin - 24 (355.33 total score)

----
1st Alternate: Tarasova/Morozov - 24 (349.23 total score)
2nd Alternate: Denney/Frazier -22 (348.69 total score)
3rd Alternate: Wang/Wang - 22 (354.12 total score)

anyanka · Nov 29, 2014

Mrs. P said:
Yes.

Final result.

1.) Stolbova/Klimov - 30 (421.78 total score)
2.) Duhmel/Radford - 30 (410.52 total score)
3.) Kavaguti/Smirnov - 28 (392.76 total score)
4.) Peng/Zhang - 26 (376.48 total score; 1st place tiebreaker)
5.)Sui/Han - 26 (385.32 total score)
6.) Yu/Jin - 24 (355.33 total score)

----
1st Alternate: Tarasova/Morozov - 24 (349.23 total score)
2nd Alternate: Denney/Frazier -22 (348.69 total score)
3rd Alternate: Wang/Wang - 22 (354.12 total score)

Yay!!!

Thank you Mrs. P!!

Sandpiper · Nov 29, 2014

Mrs. P said:
Yes.

Final result.

1.) Stolbova/Klimov - 30 (421.78 total score)
2.) Duhmel/Radford - 30 (410.52 total score)
3.) Kavaguti/Smirnov - 28 (392.76 total score)
4.) Peng/Zhang - 26 (376.48 total score; 1st place tiebreaker)
5.)Sui/Han - 26 (385.32 total score)
6.) Yu/Jin - 24 (355.33 total score)

----
1st Alternate: Tarasova/Morozov - 24 (349.23 total score)
2nd Alternate: Denney/Frazier -22 (348.69 total score)
3rd Alternate: Wang/Wang - 22 (354.12 total score)

Russia-China showdown! :yay:

What NHK skaters need for GPF

Sandpiper

Snow63

Pray one day we'll open our eyes.

silverlake22

Jammers

silverlake22

Mista Ekko

Sasha'sSpins

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

Icey

Meoima

Match Penalty

cheerknithanson

HanDomi

Meoima

Match Penalty

HanDomi

foruiz

Meoima

Match Penalty

anyanka

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

anyanka

Sandpiper

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