2015 US Nationals Predictions and Wishes

I will only post this once and I might as well do it here.

I think Nathan Chen has a good chance to medal at his first Nationals as a senior. I even think he has a ghost of a chance to win.

I base this on watching Nathan since 2002 when he was 3-years-old. I have never seen a skating life managed better. Nathan has an excellent ability to manage the points. He never gives away points in spins and steps. He has proven his ability, already, to skate through illness and injury. He is consistent in performing well even when he has mistakes. This year he arrived at Sectionals with 3 quads and landed one of them cleanly. He also has the top point total of any US man this season (yes, I know the points were inflated) 243.89.

Realistically, I know he probably will not be on the podium. I also think that Jr Worlds would be a better fit for him this year with Senior Worlds coming next year. It is clear that his plan is to be part of the 2018 Olympic Team. I think he will be there (barring the unforeseen, of course).

With the low results of the US men this season, I think Nathan Chen should be part of the conversation for Nationals

A.H.Black said:

I will only post this once and I might as well do it here.

I think Nathan Chen has a good chance to medal at his first Nationals as a senior. I even think he has a ghost of a chance to win.

I base this on watching Nathan since 2002 when he was 3-years-old. I have never seen a skating life managed better. Nathan has an excellent ability to manage the points. He never gives away points in spins and steps. He has proven his ability, already, to skate through illness and injury. He is consistent in performing well even when he has mistakes. This year he arrived at Sectionals with 3 quads and landed one of them cleanly. He also has the top point total of any US man this season (yes, I know the points were inflated) 243.89.

Realistically, I know he probably will not be on the podium. I also think that Jr Worlds would be a better fit for him this year with Senior Worlds coming next year. It is clear that his plan is to be part of the 2018 Olympic Team. I think he will be there (barring the unforeseen, of course).

With the low results of the US men this season, I think Nathan Chen should be part of the conversation for Nationals

Click to expand...

:thumbsup: If the USA prediction games run, he is someone I am willing to risk as part of the top 3!

Men: Jeremy, Ricky, Josh, Jason (Doug Razzano as honorable mention)
Ladies: Ashley, Gracie, (I'd love to see Angela Wang squeak out a bronze but Polina probably will podium)
Dance: Shibs, C/B, H/D, H/B
Pairs: This is a major toss up

Ladies:

1 Gracie Gold
2 Ashley Wagner
3 Courtney Hicks
4 Polina Edmunds

Men

1 Max Aaron
2 Now it gets tough & depends a lot on who can land at least one quad & hold on to their triples. I so want to say Adam but his triple axle is soooo scary.
2 Jason Brown if he is clean
3 Stephen Carriere...sticking my neck out.
4 Richard Dornbush
5 Abbott, Miner, Rippon or Chen.

Dance

1 Chock/Bates
2 Shibutanis
3 Hawayak/Baker

Pairs

1 Scimeca/Knierem
2 Denny/Frazier
3 Aaron/Settlage

Women:
1/2. Wagner/Gold. Of course it'll depend on whoever is the most clean, and I could kind of see it going to Wagner. She seems especially hungry for it.
3. Edmunds
4. Nagasu
5. Hicks
6. Cesario (I like her- great presentation and consistency, but lacking in speed, blade work and jumps

Men:
1. Dornbush
2. Brown
3. Farris
4. Aaron
5. Abbott
6. Carriere

Pairs: No idea LOL
1. Scimeca/Knierem (big IF, consistency will be key)
2. Kayne/O'Shea
3. Castelli/Tran
4. Denney/Frazier
5. Aaron/Settlage

Dance:
1. Chock/Bates
2. Hubbell/Donohue
3. Shibutanis (they haven't been getting the levels and they don't seem to be progressing. H/D have been able to practice more than last season, when they still nearly beat the Shibs, and they've been adding to their programs. If they can hit their levels, and the Shibs continue to not, I can see this happening)
4. Hawayek/Baker
5.

my wish is just to be able to hear a forum member yelling out from the audience "nice engine" or "I love your engine" That would make it a good comp in my eyes.

We got to see Alba give Yulia . . . a stuffty of some kind I think. I like playing spot the forum member. This time i want to be able to make out an engine comment from the audience.

as for predictions.

ummmm

I think Gracie Gold, Ashely Wagner, Jason Brown, and Chock/Bates will make it to worlds - I am not sure how much more prediction I feel safe making. I don't know about the rest. Pairs and dance seem so clear cut that I don't think I want to touch that with a 10 foot pole. I think Chock/Bates is pretty safe bet to go to worlds at least, but I could see Hawayaek/Baker sneaking in for an upset, but not sure who. Pairs is the same, but with two spots. I could see Max and Maddie playing spoiler to the party and getting a silver and again I am not sure who they would be knocking down. I do think Scimeca/Knerem and Denney/Frazier are our top teams right now, but Maddie and Max are really nipping at the heals.

Men are a crap shoot of guys who all are likeable and good in their own way. Largely the same with women. It is a game of who is best on that day sadly.
After Japan's nationals. . .who knows what is going to happen with this one. I never know when it is good or bad when there are many people that it would make me happy to see win.

Heck I am not convinced Gracie will even be at Nationals. I think she would get a well earned bye to worlds if she does not, so I still stand by my world's team.

Whatever happens, I need Max on that World team. I don't think I could bear to see his little broken-hearted face again. He just looked so sad last year. Most heartbreaking moment of Nationals without question.

karne said:

Whatever happens, I need Max on that World team. I don't think I could bear to see his little broken-hearted face again. He just looked so sad last year. Most heartbreaking moment of Nationals without question.

Click to expand...

I don't know Adam, looked pretty devastated too but poor max had to go to the medal stand and the press thingy, etc. etc. He put on a good face, and he also looked happy for Jason after Riverdance in the he can acknowledge it as a good skate. Pain for himself, but gotta respect a guy who still gives credit where credit is do and holds it together and does his job so to speak. He just seems like such a sweetheart, I want to see him smiling again. I think the problem is he has such a great natural smile that when he is not happy it just really shows. Adam frequently looks a bit sour, so it is less obvious when he is hurting. I hate seeing sad Max, it always kills my mood! I need to go watch a Black Betty exhibition now.

I think I am hoping for a Jason Max Ricky team, but a part of me fears that Jeremy will sneak in to beat either Max or Ricky depending on who does better and worse that day. The problem is Jeremy's international rep is strong enough that I think he might get held up more at worlds than Max or Ricky (who knows on Jason). That advantage may start making him look attractive as people start thinking about keeping three spots for worlds next year.

Do we know much about Ricky? I kinda get the impression he may not really enjoy or want much attention from cameras. He tends to have an awkward "this camera is beneath me" attitude in interviews. I can never tell if it is an awkward nerd using it as a tactic to deal with stress and attention he is uncomfortable with, or if he really just can't bring himself to take a camera and microphone seriously. I like the guy, I like his skating, but to be honest I wonder how much he really wants to be national champion. I wonder if he is one of those types that just really would not want the added attention and stress and work of being national champ.

About Nathan Chen: I think he is fantastically talented. He has great musicality and style, and he knows how to sell his programs. The problem is he is coming back from injury so it isn't clear if he has all his jumps just yet. He does have a quad, but apparently is struggling with the 3a and did not attempt one in his last competition. Without a 3a, I am not sure he is competitive for the Nationals podium, at least not this year.

I would classify these as wishes, not predictions.

Ladies:
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Gracie Gold
3. Courtney Hicks
4. Hannah Miller

I see Ashley winning it. Courtney has a cool short program and I feel like this is her year to get somewhere. Also I looooove Hannah Miller, but it's hard to push Cesario and Edmonds off the podium though... I think Amber Glenn could be a sleeper candidate.

Men:
1. Ricky Dornbush
2. Adam Rippon
3. Jason Brown
4. Stephen Carriere

OK, I know this podium is straight crazy and will not happen. Sue me.

Pairs:
1. Denney/Frazier
2. Scimeca/Knierim
3. Aaron/Settlage
4. Castelli/Tran

This is the podium I selected that I think is most likely to actually happen. I haven't gotten a chance to watch Kayne/O'Shea's earlier outing yet though.

Dance:
1. Chock/Bates
2. Shibutanis
3. Hawayek/Baker
4. .... Hubbell/Donohue??

I cannot tell a lie, I do not like H/D's programs this year. At all. I am sorry. I just do not care for those programs. However, I don't like Aldridge/Eaton's programs much better. Maybe a little. Maybe I should switch my endorsement to A/E... Also, I would like to see the Shibutanis win a national championship some year. However, let's have it be closer to the next Olympics...

Ladies- I think Ashley will get her title back. Gracie is dealing with defending her first title and missed training time. That's a lot for any skater, especially one who is not the steeliest of competitors. Polina IMO is the safest bet for the third spot but not a sure bet as I believed she was in September. I think Hicks will be fourth and Cesario will be fifth again.

Men is the hardest call for me. I think USFS would very much like Jason to be national champion and Max to be on the world team. I expect Jeremy will be better than he looked in the fall as per usual. Dornbush is the wildcard. He could be second, he could be seventh. I could see Chen ending up a respectable third or fourth.

Pairs- I think Denney and Frazier will win as long unless Scimeca and Knierim are completely clean and I don't think there's much of a chance of that. Kayne and O'Shea could make things interesting as they did well at their senior B and defeated both D/F and S/K at 2014 4CC and are coming in very under the radar. Aaron and Settlage are likely looking at fourth, maybe third. I'm a huge Marissa fan but they seemed to have miles to go with the elements so I don't see C/T in the mix just yet.

Dance- Chock and Bates by 8-10 points. Shibs. Hawayek/Baker assuming nerves don't get to Kaitlin. H/D haven't placed above fourth since 2012 and didn't light up the GP so I don't think the federation is holding them a spot. I see them becoming the new Lynn and Logan, loved by a lot of fans but on the outside looking in because of the depth of US dance. A/E didn't do themselves any favors on the GP and with their programs this year. I like them a lot but I think they're lucky to have gotten to 2014 Worlds because it seems unlikely to happen again.

Personal wishes- Polina becomes nervy Boston 2014 Polina again. Ashley has a good FS for the first time in a couple years. Farris gets his groove back. Kayne and O'Shea upset S/K for silver and make the World team. Castelli, Shnapir and Batholomay have solid skates with their new partners. It has to be hard to go from the excitement of making an Olympic team to knowing you're unlikely to be on the podium. The H/D Great Gatsby FD never sees the light of day again after Greensboro.

Amy Rosewater‏@amyrosewater 50m50 minutes ago
Spoke with @jasonbskates and he said he will practice his quad at #NC2015, and may consider attempting it should he make the World Team.


Let's go for it finally Jason :agree:

This sure changes things. Will Jason finally go for the quad? Will Jeremy pull a Jeremy and peak at nationals again? Will Max finally bring it? Will Josh be able to come back from his NHK performace? Will Nathan medal and ruin everyone's podium predictions? Or will Dornbush do a repeat CoC?

Can't wait!

Cute. I also think it is easy for us to overlook how hard they all work.


Good Luck everyone. I want you all to have the skate you dream of and make it hard on the judges

shiroKJ said:

Will Jeremy pull a Jeremy and peak at nationals again? Can't wait!

Click to expand...

SashaJuliaSpins said:

Click to expand...

:scowl:

SashaJuliaSpins said:

Click to expand...

IcyEdges said:

:scowl:

Click to expand...

Sorry! I was only laughing at the use of the word "pull a Jeremy" like Wagnered! I promise, not Jeremy's performance. I don't make fun of athletes, I think it is rude and thoughtless to laugh at people that put in so much sweat and dedication into what they do!

SashaJuliaSpins said:

Sorry! I was only laughing at the use of the word "pull a Jeremy" like Wagnered! I promise, not Jeremy's performance. I don't make fun of athletes, I think it is rude and thoughtless to laugh at people that put in so much sweat and dedication into what they do!

Click to expand...

Okay, that's fine. It appeared like you were making fun of him, and it especially looked bad with what he is going through with his family matters right now. Thanks for explaining what you meant.
I forgive you.

Ladies:
Ashley/Gracie--happy with either
Polina
Karen
Angela

Mens:
Max
Josh
Jason

Pairs
Denney/Frazier
Castelli/Tran
Scimeca/Knierim

Dance
Chock/Bates
Hubbell/Donohue
Shibutanis

My dream podium in men would be:

Abbott
Dornbush
Farris / Rippon