2015 US Nationals Predictions and Wishes

golden411 said:

What a baseless accusation re manipulating the scores.
(The overall scores were close, but it is a huge leap to assume that the judges were colluding to give the U.S. three spots.)

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Skating order Group 2
Balde
Reynolds
Righini
Nguyen
Hendrix
Caluza

Skating order Group 3 (penultimate group)
Aaron
Besseghier
Abbott
Bychenko
Liebers
Kovtun

Skating order in Group 4 final group:
Verner
Machida
Han
Yuzuru
Kozuka
Fernandez

8th, 9th, 10th was Aaron, Besseghier and Verner. Aaron (9th after the SP) went first in Group 3. He was first with 225.26 (147.34). Bessegheir (10th after the SP) beat Aaron in the FS by just a hair (147.39) but was behind by a hair due to Aaron's slight lead during the SP. Abbott (8th in the SP) than went and skated an excellent FS (166.68; 246.35 overall).

But there was no guarantees that Aaron would finish 8th or Jeremy finish 5th as there were still 9 people to skate after them and 7 who had the scores to beat Abbott, if not Abbott and Aaron.

The placements came as they were because:

* Kovtun skated well (nearly same TES as Jeremy), but judges gave Jeremy the edge on PCS (5th; 162.74). But Kovtun had a lead on Jeremy, which lead to him finishing ahead of him. At the end of the group it was Kovtun, Abbott, Aaron, Bessegheir, Reynolds, Nguyen. The two later skated in the 2nd group in 15th and 16th respectively).
* Verner, who first in the final group had a very poor FS. He scored just 134.06, placing him 15th in the FS and dropping him to 10th, behind Aaron and Besseghier (and Abbott obviously), but ahead of Reynolds and Nugyen.
* Han, who was 5th in the SP, also made several errors in his program, finished 11th in the FS (146.21) and finished behind Abbott overall (7th).
* Kozuka, who was 6th in the SP, also had technical issues, finished 8th in the FS (152.48) and behind Abbott overall (6th; 238.02.)

So basically, Aaron and Abbott played the waiting game, and had help from poor performances from Verner, Han and Kozuka. The judges did not give Aaron super high scores (147+ is well below his PB) , so to say that some how the judges had a plan to give U.S. three spots is crazy. Sometimes in sports, at the end of the day, you just have messy victories. And that happened to be one of them.

Hmm..that is what I got an impression from the thread here for World 2014 after I looked through it from the start to the end along with the assessment on Jeremy and Max.

So going back to the topic:

Ladies: The final group contenders, IMO (based on SB mostly): Gold, Wagner, Edmunds, Cesario, Hicks and Nagasu. Miller has a higher SB than Mirai, but her scores have been all over the place. Karen Chen also had a higher SB as well, but not sure who she will transition to the senior level given her difficulties with the FS this season. So I see Miller and Chen both as dark horses for the final group.

Men: Final group contenders (again based on SB mostly): Aaron, Dornbush, Brown, Abbott, Miner, Rippon. Farris (depending on injuries) and Nathan Chen are the dark horses/ X factors. Razzano and Johnson could sneak in there as well.

Paris: I say the battle will be between Denny/Frazier and Scimeca/Knierim for gold. Aaron/Settlage, Kanye/O'Shea for 3rd. Calalang/Sidhu is the dark horse and could snag the pewter. New teams Tran/Castelli and Leng/Shnapir are question marks.

Dance: I think the World team is likely to be Chock/Bates, Shibutanis and Hubbell and Donohue, but Hawayek and Baker may sneak in there. The look prime to beat Aldridge/Eaton to get on the podium, however. Cannuscio/Mcmanus could be be a dark horse for the podium (i.e. pewter).

inside edges said:

Hmm..that is what I got an impression from the thread here for World 2014 after I looked through it from the start to the end along with the assessment on Jeremy and Max.

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IMO, I didn't think it would happen and was surprised when it did. But I think the basic point is that regardless of how its done, it takes two skaters to get three spots. Basically the only skater as of late who had sole responsibility to get three spots (and should be given sole credit) was Yuna Kim in 2013 Worlds.

Mrs. P said:

... But there was no guarantees that Aaron would finish 8th or Jeremy finish 5th as there were still 9 people to skate after them ...

So basically, Aaron and Abbott played the waiting game, and had help from poor performances from Verner, Han and Kozuka. The judges did not give Aaron super high scores (147+ is well below his PB) , so to say that some how the judges had a plan to give U.S. three spots is crazy. Sometimes in sports, at the end of the day, you just have messy victories. And that happened to be one of them.

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Many thanks to Mrs. P for the entirety of your wonderfully thorough explanation. Very illuminating to see the detailed chronology.

Forgive me for digressing just a bit more with this side comment:

I bet the podium is going to be nothing like most of you so far predicted.

Let me just remind you of some recent scores THIS season (not the ones inflated at Sochi or the following WC ):

Polina Edmunds: 161.27, 161.79
Gracie Gold: 179.38, 182.31, 191.16
Wagner: 177.74, 189.50, 186
Mirai Nagasu: 158.21, 165.88
Karen Chen: 169.41, 160.95

Based on this, I'd say:
1. Gold
2. Wagner
3. Chen

is most likely, unless Gold lets pressure get to her big time.

breathesgelatin said:

I would classify these as wishes, not predictions.

Ladies:
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Gracie Gold
3. Courtney Hicks
4. Hannah Miller

I see Ashley winning it. Courtney has a cool short program and I feel like this is her year to get somewhere. Also I looooove Hannah Miller, but it's hard to push Cesario and Edmonds off the podium though... I think Amber Glenn could be a sleeper candidate.

Men:
1. Ricky Dornbush
2. Adam Rippon
3. Jason Brown
4. Stephen Carriere

OK, I know this podium is straight crazy and will not happen. Sue me.

Pairs:
1. Denney/Frazier
2. Scimeca/Knierim
3. Aaron/Settlage
4. Castelli/Tran

This is the podium I selected that I think is most likely to actually happen. I haven't gotten a chance to watch Kayne/O'Shea's earlier outing yet though.

Dance:
1. Chock/Bates
2. Shibutanis
3. Hawayek/Baker
4. .... Hubbell/Donohue??

I cannot tell a lie, I do not like H/D's programs this year. At all. I am sorry. I just do not care for those programs. However, I don't like Aldridge/Eaton's programs much better. Maybe a little. Maybe I should switch my endorsement to A/E... Also, I would like to see the Shibutanis win a national championship some year. However, let's have it be closer to the next Olympics...

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Here goes my uneducated predictions.

Ladies

Ashley - she's got the confidence, momentum and her primary competitor is coming off an injury
Gracie - she was America's top skater last year, has the goods, not sure she has continued improving with Carroll
Mirai - okay this is a wild wild guess because Polina, Courtney , Samantha, Angela are all contenders of pretenders for the final spot.

Pairs

Denney Frazier
Scimeca Knierem
Castelli Shapnir

Actually potential by all teams but no it factor yet or break out team - though they are still gelling


Dance

Chock and Bates - I would like them in second but won't happen - they are good but imho should be behind the Shibs

Shibutani's - one wonders what "really"is going on in their heads

Hubbell and Donahoe


Men

Max Aaron - tough call but he might be hungry after last year
Jason Brown - judges love him but I don't think he has the quality of skating or programs not only of last year but really to garner enough pcs to hold him up enough especially internationally without a quad attempt
Jeremy Abbott - When he is on he is no. 1 and a world contender or at least a medallist but getting two top notch programs out of him is kind of like a miracle

I do wonder about Dornbush, Rippon, Farris, Chen and all - they could sneak in for a coveted world spot.

Skater Boy said:

Here goes my uneducated predictions.

Ladies

Ashley - she's got the confidence, momentum and her primary competitor is coming off an injury
Gracie - she was America's top skater last year, has the goods, not sure she has continued improving with Carroll
Mirai - okay this is a wild wild guess because Polina, Courtney , Samantha, Angela are all contenders of pretenders for the final spot.

Pairs

Denney Frazier
Scimeca Knierem
Castelli Shapnir

Actually potential by all teams but no it factor yet or break out team - though they are still gelling


Dance

Chock and Bates - I would like them in second but won't happen - they are good but imho should be behind the Shibs

Shibutani's - one wonders what "really"is going on in their heads

Hubbell and Donahoe


Men

Max Aaron - tough call but he might be hungry after last year
Jason Brown - judges love him but I don't think he has the quality of skating or programs not only of last year but really to garner enough pcs to hold him up enough especially internationally without a quad attempt
Jeremy Abbott - When he is on he is no. 1 and a world contender or at least a medallist but getting two top notch programs out of him is kind of like a miracle

I do wonder about Dornbush, Rippon, Farris, Chen and all - they could sneak in for a coveted world spot.

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`Tis the fate of the American men. We can say this about any of them.

golden411 said:

What a baseless accusation re manipulating the scores.
(The overall scores were close, but it is a huge leap to assume that the judges were colluding to give the U.S. three spots.)

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Not to mention they could've easily put Jeremy ahead of Kovtun (with no controversy), if they wanted to seal the three spots so emphatically.

Miss Ice said:

Karen Chen: 169.41, 160.95

Based on this, I'd say:
1. Gold
2. Wagner
3. Chen

is most likely, unless Gold lets pressure get to her big time.

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Where did the score for Chen come from? Because if it's Regionals/Sectionals it doesn't count.


Oh, by the way, golden411, LOVE the new avatar.

karne said:

Where did the score for Chen come from? Because if it's Regionals/Sectionals it doesn't count.


Oh, by the way, golden411, LOVE the new avatar.

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JGP Croatia.

miss ice said:

i bet the podium is going to be nothing like most of you so far predicted.

Let me just remind you of some recent scores this season (not the ones inflated at sochi or the following wc ):

Polina edmunds: 161.27, 161.79
gracie gold: 179.38, 182.31, 191.16
wagner: 177.74, 189.50, 186
mirai nagasu: 158.21, 165.88
karen chen: 169.41, 160.95

based on this, i'd say:
1. Gold
2. Wagner
3. Chen

is most likely, unless gold lets pressure get to her big time.

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yassss!!!!!

I must have missed these family situations - what happened that would affect these skates - I was scanning but couldn't find it.

Skater Boy said:

I must have missed these family situations - what happened that would affect these skates - I was scanning but couldn't find it.

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IDK what you scanned and are referring to unless it's that Ricky's mom is seriously ill in the hospital and will be there for awhile (they don't know what's wrong yet). And Jeremy's biological father passed away late last week.

IcyEdges said:

IDK what you scanned and are referring to unless it's that Ricky's mom is seriously ill in the hospital and will be there for awhile (they don't know what's wrong yet). And Jeremy's biological father passed away late last week.

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That's what I was looking for. Oh that is sad for both. Hopefully they can pull a Joannie Rochette and stay focussed.

Skater Boy said:

I must have missed these family situations - what happened that would affect these skates - I was scanning but couldn't find it.

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If you want to read the post from cruzceleste about Dornbush's mother's mysterious illness, it is in the U.S. men thread. It has the text of Richard's Facebook post.

(Jeremy, his sister, and his mother (now married to J's stepfather) have tweeted about the loss of his father, who had Parkinson's disease. Expressions of sympathy for the Abbotts are scattered among two or three GS threads and on social media.)

Dream Podiums for men & ladies:

Men (in any order)
Ross Miner
Joshua Farris
Jason Brown

Ladies (in any order)
Gracie Gold
Mirai Nagasu
Hannah Miller

Now Reality for Men & Ladies

Men
1) Jason Brown
2) Richard Dornbush
3) Max Aaron

Ladies
1) Ashley Wagner
2) Gracie Gold
3) Courtney Hicks

I'm not sure whether to be pleased so many of you are backing Max, annoyed at how begrudging some of you are about it, or laughing at how few times I can count Josh's name in this thread.

I still believe in my Golden Trio Worlds team! Max/Josh/Jason for the win!

karne said:

I'm not sure whether to be pleased so many of you are backing Max, annoyed at how begrudging some of you are about it, or laughing at how few times I can count Josh's name in this thread.

I still believe in my Golden Trio Worlds team! Max/Josh/Jason for the win!

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I have Josh's name in my last post!!! Love him!!

Some folks picking their favorites as usual... (and yes, I'm aware that the thread title says "wishes" as well)

I'm only talking ladies as I don't follow the others - I have no idea at all what's going to happen. Here's the thing. If Gold skates anywhere NEAR her capability, she will defend...because at her best she really is class of the field. But she is defending a title, PLUS she's coming off injury and lost training time. Who knows what shape she's going to be in - or whether she can handle the nerves? This is what could open the door for her main competitors.

So - Gold will defend unless she stumbles badly, but given her circumstances (and her competitive history) it is likely that she will stumble. Then the question to ask is, can she do enough to hold on?

Now we get to Wagner. She is in a curious position as well...I know she has expressed that she wants the title back, and has an increasingly ambitious routine in terms of jumps and layout. The issue for Wagner is going to come down to execution - particularly in the SP. This is where Gold can build an early lead and give herself some wiggle room in the free skate. Where Wagner has a chance is taking advantage of Gold's position (mentioned above) and use the role of underdog to really attack and put the pressure on. Historically Wagner has done well in the underdog position...but she also has to tackle demons of her own. She has only had ONE good nationals in her career (2012)...all the others she has blown either the SP or FS. So...which Wagner will show up? The GPF SP Wagner or the GPF FS one...or both?

Then, there is Edmunds, Hicks, Nagasu. One of them has had a decent GP, the other two have had merely ok starts. I think we all know that we can't use the GP as a predictor of what will happen or how they will skate, which is why I'm hesitant to think Hicks will kill it or Nagasu and Edmunds will bomb. We don't know...

So ultimately...this is a very tough one to call, but for the sake of this thread I will go with

1. Gold (barely)
2. Wagner
3. Edmunds (I think she comes up out of the struggle, but this could just as easily not happen)
4. Hicks

But in honesty, I have no idea. Anything can happen.

Karne, it's not that I dislike Josh Farris, just that I personally don't believe him to be competition ready. He's been injured most of the season & I have begun to wonder if he will continue to have problems with his ankles? Hope not as he is a fine talent.