American Championships: Predictions Game Round 7

I only watch ladies and some men.

Men:
1. Abbott
2. Brown

Ladies:
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Gracie Gold
3. Polina Edmunds
4. Mirai Nagasu
5. Courtney Hicks
6. Samantha Cesario

This one was really hard other than Ashley and Gracie. Considering that Mirai actually had a better GP season than both Polina and Samantha, she might be able to get the bronze if she attacks her two programs like last year nationals. But then, Polina is really strong in nationals while Samantha really performs her programs. I was just hoping Mirai could have a miracle and finally skate well. I'm kind of losing that hope because of what happened to Lipnitskaya at nationals.

golden411 said:

FYI, CL_fan:

Two entries who qualified for Nats are not listed among the practice groups.

- The dancers Aronow/Brubaker. I don't know why they are not competing. :confused2: I will miss seeing her beauty. hwell:
- The pair de la Mora/Wilson. Per MFarone's post in another thread: he is injured, according to Sylvia.​

A link to the practice groups listings officially was published today on the USFS fan zone site.
(The document itself is dated Jan 14.)

http://www.usfigureskating.org/content/NC2015PracticeGroups.PDF​

http://www.usfigureskatingfanzone.c...re-skating-championships-competition-central/​

I could be wrong, but I don't expect the start orders to be posted until a day or two before each SP and the SD.
[And no biggie, but BTW, post #12 on Page 1 of this thread was intended to bring the general results link to your attention. Sorry that you missed it there. Saw your comments today in another thread. ]​

Click to expand...

Thanks for the info, Golden. I'll mark them as withdrawn.

And sorry that I didn't notice you had posted the entry/results page link.

This is the first time since I created this thread that I had a chance to have a look through it, as I have doing a lot of behind the scenes work trying to organise the scorers for not only these rounds, but also for the first three rounds of the ISU Predictions Game. (Why do all these Championships have to be so close together?! Can we not extend the season by a month or 2, and have the more significant competitions a bit more spread out...?!)

Plus there has been snooker on...

golden411 said:

---

ETA:

Jackie Wong ‏@examinerskating

Things easier than predicting US Nationals men & ladies: multivariable calculus, regression analysis, existentialist literature #NC2015
1:13 PM - 17 Jan 2015
https://twitter.com/examinerskating/status/556559966627442690​

Click to expand...

I haven't even started attempting to work out what my predictions are going to be! But, I have a feeling that I am going to end up agreeing with Jackie!!!

CaroLiza_fan

I think Samantha will get on the podium this year.
Ladies:
1. Gold
2. Wagner
3. Cesario
4. Hicks
5. Edmunds
6. Nagasu

It will be wonderful to watch actual WOMEN figure skating at this competition, despite all my admiration of Russian girls...

golden411 said:

FYI, CL_fan:

Two entries who qualified for Nats are not listed among the practice groups.

- The dancers Aronow/Brubaker. I don't know why they are not competing. :confused2: I will miss seeing her beauty. hwell:
- The pair de la Mora/Wilson. Per MFarone's post in another thread: he is injured, according to Sylvia.​

A link to the practice groups listings officially was published today on the USFS fan zone site.
(The document itself is dated Jan 14.)

http://www.usfigureskating.org/content/NC2015PracticeGroups.PDF​

http://www.usfigureskatingfanzone.c...re-skating-championships-competition-central/​

I could be wrong, but I don't expect the start orders to be posted until a day or two before each SP and the SD.
[And no biggie, but BTW, post #12 on Page 1 of this thread was intended to bring the general results link to your attention. Sorry that you missed it there. Saw your comments today in another thread. ]​

---

ETA:

Jackie Wong ‏@examinerskating

Things easier than predicting US Nationals men & ladies: multivariable calculus, regression analysis, existentialist literature #NC2015
1:13 PM - 17 Jan 2015
https://twitter.com/examinerskating/status/556559966627442690​

Click to expand...

Holy crab....I don't to think about existentialism! I learned about it in IB English I SL in 11th grade while reading "Crime and Punishment" (So deep but so confusing and LOOOOOOOONG). Well math, there's a right answer and tons of wrong answers. As long as you know how to calculate.

Men's and ladies is a toss-up this year. And pair, even more so due to the fact that both pairs teams who went to the Sochi Olympics for team USA split. Ice Dance is going to be much easier to predict 1st and 2nd place. As Tanith is right IMO: there will be a fight for the bronze in ice dance.

I hope this is the correct thread - there's another one of "predictions & wishes" that people seem to be using as the predictions game thread - it has a lot more prediction entries / pages but it doesn't look "official". Could one of the game organisers please let us know which one is the correct one? Thank you

US CHAMPIONSHIPS 2015

MEN
1. Jason Brown
2. Ricky Dornbush
3. Jeremy Abbott
4. Max Aaron
5. Adam Rippon

6. Stephen Carriere

LADIES
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Gracie Gold
3. Samantha Cesario
4. Courtney Hicks
5. Polina Edmunds

6. Hannah Miller

PAIRS
1. Denney/Frazier
2. Scimeca/Knierim
3. Aaron/Settlage
4. Kayne/O'Shea
5. Castelli/Tran

6. Calalang/Sidhu

DANCE
1. Chock/Bates
2. Shibutani/Shibutani
3. Hawayek/Baker
4. Hubbell/Donohue
5. Aldridge/Eaton

6. Cannuscio/McManus

MEN
1. Jason Brown
2. Richard Dornbush
3. Max Aaron
4. Jeremy Abbott
5. Nathan Chen

6. Joshua Farris

LADIES
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Gracie Gold
3. Samantha Cesario
4. Courtney Hicks
5. Polina Edmunds

6. Mirai Nagasu

PAIRS
1. Denney/Frazier
2. Scimeca/Knierim
3. Aaron/Settlage
4. Kayne/O'Shea
5. Castelli/Tran

6. Calalang/Sidhu

DANCE
1. Chock/Bates
2. Shibutani/Shibutani
3. Hawayek/Baker
4. Hubbell/Donohue
5. Aldridge/Eaton

6. Cannuscio/McManus

Ladies:
1. Ashley Wagner
2. Gracie Gold
3. Samantha Cesario
4. Courtney Hicks
5. Karen Chen
6. Polina Edmunds

Men:
1. Jason Brown
2. Max Aaron
3. Jeremy Abbott
4. Nathan Chen
5. Richard Dornbush
6. Stephen Carriere

Pairs:
1. Denney/Frazier
2. Scimeca/ Knierim
3. Aaron/Settlage
4. Kayne/O'Shea
5. Calalang/Sidhu
6. Donlan/Bartholomay

Dance:
1. Chock / Bates
2. Shibutani / Shibutani
3. Hubbel / Donohue
4. Hawayek / Baker
5. Aldridge / Eaton
6. Cannuscio / McManus

Men

1) Brown
2) Abbott
3) Dornubsh
4) Aaron
5) Farris
6) Carriere


Ladies

1) Wagner
2) Gold
3) Hicks
4) Edmunds
5) Cesario
6) Miller


Pairs

1) Denney/Frazier
2) Aaron/Settlage
3) Sciema/Knierim
4) Leng/Shnapir
5) Kayne/O'Shea
6) Calalang/Sidhu


Ice Dance

1) Chock/Bates
2) Shibutani/Shibutani
3) Hubbell/Donohue
4) Hawayek/Baker
5) Aldridge/Eaton
6) Cannuscio/McManus

Ladies:
1. Mirai Nagasu
2. Gracie Gold
3. Ashley Wagner
4. Courtney Hicks
5. Karen Chen
6. Polina Edmunds

Men:
1. Jason Brown
2. Max Aaron
3. Jeremy Abbott
4. Richard Dornbush
5. Stephen Carriere
6. Nathan Chen

Pairs:
1. Denney/Frazier
2. Scimeca/ Knierim
3. Aaron/Settlage
4. Kane/O'Shea
5. Donlan/Bartholomay
6. Castelli/Tran

Dance:
1. Shibutani/Shibutani
2. Chock/Bates
3. Hawayek/Baker
4. Hubbell/ Donahue
5. Aldridge / Eaton
6. Cannuscio / McManus

2015 US Championships

Ladies
1. Gold
2. Hicks
3. Cesario
4. Edmunds
5. Nagasu
6. Wagner

Men
1. Aaron
2. Rippon
3. Brown
4. Dornbush
5. Farris
6. Chen

Ice Dance
1. Chock/Bates
2. Shibutani/Shibutani
3. Hubbell/ Donohue
4. Aldridge/Baker
5. Hawayek/Baker
6. Gamelin/Gamelin

Pairs
1. Scimeca/Knierim
2. Denney/Fraizer
3. Aaron/Settlage
4. Calang/Sidhu
5. Castelli/Tran
6. Leng/Shnapir

Men
1. Jeremy Abbott
2. Jason Brown
3. Max Aaron
4. Richard DORNBUSH
5. Nathan CHEN
6. Adam RIPPON

Ladies
1. Gracie GOLD
2. Ashley WAGNER
3. Courtney HICKS
4. Polina EDMUNDS
5. Mirai NAGASU
6. Samantha CESARIO

Pairs
1. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
2. Alexa SCIMECA / Chris KNIERIM
3. Madeline AARON / Max SETTLAGE
4. Jessica Noelle CALALANG / Zack SIDHU
5. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
6. DeeDee LENG / Simon SHNAPIR

Ice dance
1. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
2. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
3. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON
6. Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUS

Men

1. Dornbush
2. Abbott
3. Brown
4. Chen
5. Aaron
6. Rippon

Ladies

1. Wagner
2. Gold
3. Nagasu
4. Hicks
5. Edmunds
6. Chen

Pairs

1. Denny/Frazier
2. Scimeca/Kneriem
3. Castelli/Tran
4. Kayne/O'shea
5. Calalang/Sidhu
6. Aaron/Settlage

Dance

1. Chock/Bates
2. Shibs
3. Hawayek/Baker
4. Hubbell/Donahue
(The rest are pretty bad so won't even bother.)

This seems pointless though. The thrill of US national's is all about big surprise break-out stars and judging conspiracies anyway.

DiamondRain said:

Pairs:
1) A. Scimeca/C. Knierim
2) M. Aaron/M. Settlage
3) M. Castelli/M. Tran
4) G. Donlan/N. Bartholomay
5) D. Leng/S. Shnapir

Click to expand...

I have to ask. Did you forget about Denney and Frazier, or are you expecting them to bomb down to sixth?

StitchMonkey said:

I have to ask. Did you forget about Denney and Frazier, or are you expecting them to bomb down to sixth?

Click to expand...

Honestly something in between. I was thinking about 4-6th place and because I had practically no idea how to deal with these three, I decided by my own affection to each one of pairs

DiamondRain said:

Honestly something in between. I was thinking about 4-6th place and because I had practically no idea how to deal with these three, I decided by my own affection to each one of pairs

Click to expand...

Ahh ok. Well someone has to do badly.

I kinda wondered if maybe you got confused and thought it was this Denney that was out with injury.

Anyway, I rather like your top two so not really upset. I have a soft spot for Sappenfiled teams

I just started working on my predictions for Canadian Championships, and thought that while I was at it, I would check to see if the American Championships entry lists were up on the entries/results page yet.

And I made a discovery.

THE AMERICAN CHAMPIONSHIPS START A DAY EARLIER THAN I THOUGHT!!!

I thought the Short Dance (17:15 EST on 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] January 2015) was the first competition. It's not. The first competition is actually the Pairs Short, just over 24 hours earlier.

So, here are the amended timings:


I always knew I found those timetable PDF's hard to follow, but I never thought I would make a mistake as big as this.

I am so sorry.

CaroLiza_fan

Just wanted to let you know that the Start orders for the Senior SP's in Ladies, Pairs and Dance have finally been announced, and I have amended the lists in the original post accordingly.

The Men's SP start list will also be added whenever it is announced.

And remember that the Senior competitions start TOMORROW, not Friday as I previously thought.

Hope this helps

CaroLiza_fan

As usual, I am doing some extra predictions. Last year, I made predictions on the whole field. But this year, I have decided to only do a top 15, as there are so many new names that I am unfamiliar with.

I knew who I was going to put on the Ladies podium, but it was a real dilemma which way around to put them. Being a fan of figure skating has turned me into a real Russophile, and I would have loved to put Polina at the top. But, she doesn’t seem to have the same form this season as Gracie and Ashley. And speaking of them two, I kept swapping them around. But, in the end, I went for Ashley, because Gracie is only coming back from injury.

Again, I knew who I wanted to make up the rest of my Top 6, but it was just a case of order. They all have a point to prove. Mirai needs to make the point that last year wasn’t a one-off, and that she should have been sent to Worlds. Samantha needs to continue to make the point that it was wrong to keep her in Juniors for so long. And Courtney needs to make the point that she exists, because she is not getting the attention she deserves. (Although I didn’t notice it until afterwards, I actually put these 3 girls in order of age!)

The rest of my Ladies list was pretty much left as the PB order. However, I did make one change – I moved Ashley Cain up to 11th. I like Ashley, and I would have loved to have put her up even higher. But, I just couldn’t justify it, as her PB’s are a lot lower than the girls in the top 10 and, at the end of the day, they all beat her at last year’s Nationals.

For the Men, it was really funny because if you bring up their ISU Bios and sort them by PB’s, they are all in pairs! And to get the top 10 order I wanted, all you had to do was swap the 2 skaters in each pair around! Below 10th, I just kept them in PB order because Rozzano, then Omori and then Dolensky seemed about right, and I had never heard tell of the guys below them.

With the Pairs, I didn’t make too many deviations from the PB list. The top 2 were in the order I wanted. But, it was 3rd to 5th that I dithered about. I have only seen Kayne / O’Shea once (4 Continents last year), so I wasn’t sure whether that was enough to judge them on. But I have been impressed with how Aaron / Settlage have been going in the GP Series this year, so I put them 3rd instead.

Castelli / Tran were a real dilemma. Both of them have had great success with previous partners, but are an unproven quantity together. If I had seen them already, I might have put them higher (probably 4th, ahead of Kayne / O’Shea). But I haven’t, so I didn’t!

With Dance, the PB order turned out to be the order I wanted for the Top 6 anyway. So, I didn’t have to do any changing. However, I decided to try out an experiment for the lower order. There are quite a few new partnerships in this year’s American Championships. So, to see what would happen, I added together the PB’s of each skater and their most recent previous partner, and worked out the average. And I slotted them into the list according to this.

And may I take this opportunity to wish all the best to cheerknithanson’s friend, Gabriela Morrell ZUCKER. Because of my experiment, she and Andrejs are 15th on my Dance prediction list. But, I do hope they get higher.

For those that are able to watch the Championships, I hope you enjoy it. And may all the competitors skate their best!

CaroLiza_fan


AMERICAN CHAMPIONSHIPS

Ladies

1. Ashley WAGNER
2. Gracie GOLD
3. Polina EDMUNDS
4. Mirai NAGASU
5. Samantha CESARIO
6. Courtney HICKS

Just for fun
7. Karen CHEN
8. Caroline ZHANG
9. Christina GAO
10. Hannah MILLER
11. Ashley CAIN
12. Amber GLENN
13. Angela WANG
14. Leah KEISER
15. Mariah BELL


Men

1. Jason BROWN
2. Jeremy ABBOTT
3. Max AARON
4. Adam RIPPON
5. Richard DORNBUSH
6. Ross MINER

Just for fun
7. Joshua FARRIS
8. Stephen CARRIERE
9. Grant HOCHSTEIN
10. Nathan CHEN
11. Douglas RAZZANO
12. Shotaro OMORI
13. Timothy DOLENSKY
14. Alexander JOHNSON
15. Jordan MOELLER


Pairs

1. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
2. Alexa SCIMECA / Chris KNIERIM
3. Madeline AARON / Max SETTLAGE
4. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O’SHEA
5. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
6. Jessica Noelle CALALANG / Zack SIDHU

Just for fun
7. Gretchen DONLAN / Nathan BARTHOLOMAY
8. Anya DAVIDOVICH / AJ REISS
9. DeeDee LENG / Simon SHNAPIR
10. Alexandria SHAUGHNESSY / James MORGAN
11. Olivia OLTMANNS / Joshua SANTILLAN
12. Cali FUJIMOTO / Nicholas BARSI-RHYNE


Dance

1. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
2. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
3. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
4. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER
5. Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON
6. Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUS

Just for fun
7. Anastasia OLSON / Ian LORELLO
8. Ginna HOPTMAN / Pavel FILCHENKOV
9. Danielle GAMELIN / Alexander GAMELIN
10. Kristen NARDOZZI / Nick TRAXLER
11. Tory PATSIS / Nathaniel FAST
12. Elicia REYNOLDS / Stephen REYNOLDS
13. Charlotte MAXWELL / Ryan DEVEREAUX
14. Kseniya PONOMARYOVA / Oleg ALTUKHOV
15. Gabriela Morrell ZUCKER / Andrejs SITIKS

This is going to be very difficult : heart vs. reason vs. instinct equals a lot of editing - and now, there's not much time for editing left.

MEN

1. Jeremy ABBOTT
2. Jason BROWN
3. Richard DORNBUSH
4. Adam RIPPON
5. Max AARON
6. Nathan CHEN
7. Ross MINER

LADIES

1. Ashley WAGNER
2. Gracie GOLD
3. Samantha CESARIO
4. Courtney HICKS
5. Mirai NAGASU
6. Polina EDMUNDS

PAIRS

1. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER
2. Alexa SCIMECA / Chris KNIERIM
3. Madeline AARON / Max SETTLAGE
4. Marissa CASTELLI / Mervin TRAN
5. Tarah KAYNE / Daniel O SHEA
6. Jessica CALALANG / Zack SIDHU
7. Dee Dee LENG / Simon SHNAPIR

ICE DANCE

1. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES
2. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI
3. Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER (I like their FS)
4. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE
5. Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON
6. Anastasia CANNUSCIO / Colin MCMANUS