2015-16 Grand Prix pre-assignments & predictions

Since it's only one week until the anxiously-awaited Grand Prix assignments get released, I wanted to get the fun started now with a little prediction game! We obviously don't know who is going where, so we can't predict the results; no, that is not what we are predicting. We're predicting the assignments themselves! You don't have to do all the disciplines, or that many people (1-3 and 4-6 seeds are fine)-the only real 'requirements' are that the people you predict are actually competing this season, and that you cover all events except the final (which you can do if you want, but it's not at all mandatory). If you're on the non-lazy end of the spectrum, here's a list of things to get you started:

Note: all pairs below 3rd are moved up one spot because bronze medalists P/T retired.

1. World Medalist Seeds (Tuktamysheva, Fernandez, D/R, P/C, Miyahara, Hanyu, S/H, C/B, Radionova, Ten, P/Z, W/P)

2. 4-6 seeds (Gold, Brown, K/S, C/L, Wagner, Nguyen, T/M, S/S, Hongo, Ge, S/K, G/P)

3. Host picks at each event

4. The 7th-12th place skaters who get 2 automatic spots

5. Really, anything else you want!

The one who gets the most right will get a friend request and bragging rights! (lame prize, I know, but it's the only thing I can do without giving out contact info)!

Sounds like fun!

I think ice dancing is pretty predictable. PC is probably going to TEB and NHK. CB will choose SA and COC. There are SC and COR left for WP.

In a recent interview Liza mentioned she will go SC and TEB next season. So I guess Miyahara will go COC and NHK and Radionova will go SA and COR.

Miyahara to do COC and NHK? Do skaters usually do both events in one region or do they split regions (North America / Asia / Europe)?

Miyahara did NHK last year, but as nat champ I could see her doing NHK again.

Would love to see her do Skate America though.

AsadaFanBoy said:

Miyahara to do COC and NHK? Do skaters usually do both events in one region or do they split regions (North America / Asia / Europe)?

Miyahara did NHK last year, but as nat champ I could see her doing NHK again.

Would love to see her do Skate America though.

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I don't think there's a set criteria for splitting continents for the GP assignments, sometimes skaters will choose events in one region because it's less travel and the time difference is not so big. Elena won SA last year so I can see her going back and since she is the Russian champ she would get COR. That leaves COC and NHK for Satoko which would be good for her since they are the closest.

Gracie I think will get NHK again, that and SC probably, Ashley will get SA and for her second it'll probably be TEB again. Rika Hongo will go back to COR, for her second COC. Kanako Murakami will be at NHK but no idea about her second choice.

Haven't thought much about the men, but Javi and Yuzuru will definitely each get a North American one, NHK to Yuzuru and I feel Javi will pick a European one as his second. Nam will be matched up with one of them probably to reduce travelling for Brian Orser (and maybe even Elizabet Tursynbaeva too if she is going to seniors. I don't know if Nam will get SC since Patrick is coming back but both will each get one in North America.

Krunchii said:

I don't think there's a set criteria for splitting continents for the GP assignments, sometimes skaters will choose events in one region because it's less travel and the time difference is not so big. Elena won SA last year so I can see her going back and since she is the Russian champ she would get COR. That leaves COC and NHK for Satoko which would be good for her since they are the closest.

Gracie I think will get NHK again, that and SC probably, Ashley will get SA and for her second it'll probably be TEB again. Rika Hongo will go back to COR, for her second COC. Kanako Murakami will be at NHK but no idea about her second choice.

Haven't thought much about the men, but Javi and Yuzuru will definitely each get a North American one, NHK to Yuzuru and I feel Javi will pick a European one as his second. Nam will be matched up with one of them probably to reduce travelling for Brian Orser (and maybe even Elizabet Tursynbaeva too if she is going to seniors. I don't know if Nam will get SC since Patrick is coming back but both will each get one in North America.

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Ah, I see. Thanks!

I think Krunchii is right that Ashley will get SC and TEB. Which means Adam will likely get those two as well.

My guesses for the top 12 are as follows.

1 Javier FERNANDEZ TEB/SC
2 Yuzuru HANYU NHK/COR
3 Denis TEN SA/COC

4 Jason BROWN SA/TEB
5 Nam NGUYEN SC/NHK
6 Misha GE COC/COR

7 Maxim KOVTUN COR/NHK
8 Adam RIPPON SC/TEB
9 Florent AMODIO SA/COC
10 Han YAN COC/COR
11 Joshua FARRIS SC/NHK
12 Takahiko KOZUKA TEB/SA


Normally I would expect Kozuka to get NHK, but I don't think that will happen. I think it will be Yuzuru and Shoma Uno, and someone who is clearly in the "host pic" category. They also have Murakami and Mura to deal with.

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Now looking at who gets a spot from Season Best list I think it was top 24 right?

8 Daisuke MURAKAMI (COR)
9 Shoma UNO (NHK)
10 Takahito MURA (SC)
11 Sergei VORONOV (COC)
14 Michal BREZINA (TEB)
15 Max AARON (SC)
17 Richard DORNBUSH (SA)
18 Konstantin MENSHOV (SA)
19 Stephen CARRIERE - (Status TBD) COR
20 Alexander PETROV (COC)
22 Boyang JIN (Junior or Senior this year?) - COC
23 Jeremy ABBOTT - (TBD)(Status TBD) (NHK)
---- The next few because Machida is out, and I don't know the status of Carriere or Jin or Abbot or some of the next few and want a spare are

25 Ross MINER
27 Alexei BYCHENKO
28 Grant HOCHSTEIN
29 Adian PITKEEV
30 Sota YAMAMOTO
31 Yi WANG
32 Ronald LAM

I don't know that I have the energy to do more guessing.

Daisuke Murakami will likely get matched up to Denis and/or Gracie to make it easier on Frank Carroll, based on my predictions Denis and Gracie will be getting totally different events eek, Daisuke will probably attend the same ones as either of them

Don't understand the comments about host federations making a point of choosing certain skaters for the purpose of making life easier for coaches who work with multiple GP skaters.

Do the host feds really do that? :confused2:

I would hope that host feds make their selections based on the merits of the skaters -- and not on the convenience of the coaches.

golden411 said:

Don't understand the comments about host federations making a point of choosing certain skaters for the purpose of making life easier for coaches who work with multiple GP skaters.

Do the host feds really do that? :confused2:

I would hope that host feds make their selections based on the merits of the skaters -- and not on the convenience of the coaches.

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It sure as hell seemed last year they sent them in groups. Adam and Ashley. Max and Mirai and Angela Wang were all at COR. Nam, got COC with Hanyu, I suspect we could find others. I think it makes sense for everyone involved. A less exhausted coach can do their job better, and they can't be in two places at once at all. So rather than having skaters not have a coach during much of grand prix season, (if the coach is going from GP to GP they can't be coaching at their home rink) it make sense to group them. Likewise I would think it would be in many ways better for the skater to keep them in their comfort zone and with more of a support system. Fans often are fans of groups of skaters, so you get better support from them, having someone you train with there keeps and element of normal, but also a competitive mindset. Honestly, I would assume the skaters and coaches would like it this way - unless they really don't get along with each other.

It also could be cheaper to group up. Hosts pay for the coach, if you can get a two for one deal, why not? Adam and Ashley will both have two spots each, I don't see much harm is Raf only having to schlep to two GPs rather than four.

StitchMonkey said:

... Max and Mirai and Angela Wang were all at COR. ...

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BTW, Tom Z does not coach Angela.


Maybe I am naïve as to what kind of wheeling and dealing goes on -- but my hunch is that if we bothered to look, we easily could find plenty of examples of skaters who are not assigned to the same GPs although they work with the same coach.

If coaches (in effect) are the ones (rather than skaters) being assigned to GPs, it would be a huge turn-off to me as to caring about this sport. And it would help me understand why critics do not consider it a legitimate sport.

Sergei and Yulia didn't get the same GP assignments last season; Nam & Yuzu were at COC but the other assignments were different, as were Javi's...Rukavitsyn's skaters didn't get all the same assignments. I don't think there is enough evidence of a pattern, or that coaches can just get whatever they want. They can be more strategic when it comes to senior Bs, but aren't GP assignments about what the Fed wants to make it easiest for their skaters to medal (and to draw the best crowds)?

Ashley will get Skate America I think. The reigning National champ has always gotten it, except for Alissa in 2009 when her very disappointing international results essentially "removed" her title. Gracie will be sent to Skate Canada.

golden411 said:

BTW, Tom Z does not coach Angela.

Maybe I am naïve as to what kind of wheeling and dealing goes on -- but my hunch is that if we bothered to look, we easily could find plenty of examples of skaters who are not assigned to the same GPs although they work with the same coach.

If coaches (in effect) are the ones (rather than skaters) being assigned to GPs, it would be a huge turn-off to me as to caring about this sport. And it would help me understand why critics do not consider it a legitimate sport.

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Ohh yes, there are plenty (and thank you for the Angela correction) of times when it does not work out that way, and I don't think they are picking coaches. I was imagining a scenario more that Ashley was already picked for event X, given the choice between say Adam and Josh Farris (ie two skaters that they would be perfectly happy to either or both), I suspect they would pick Adam.

I do think skaters have some choice in the matter, if they get multiple invites (I think Hanyu has said he tried to follow Chan around) so it could also be that they pick the GPs together. Given the choice I suspect both Adam and Ashley would pick each other's event. Likewise if Jason Brown were in invited to two GPs, and one also invited either Mariah Bell or Jordan Moeller, I think there is little question that his preference would be the one his friend is at. The fact that it would be easier on Kori is just a bonus, I still think it would be the skater's preference.

It is interesting how much you are focusing on the coaches angle for themselves. I was looking at this much more from the skater benefit stand point - i see a less tired worn out coach as a benefit to the skater. If Raf only has to go to two GPs and Adam and Ashley are at both, then he can be home acting as their coach when not at a GP. If they get four different ones, then Adam and Ashley each have to have two weeks of no coach training during the season because Raf would be at a GP with the other A. If anything I think it looks better for the sport to have the skaters training with their primary coach as much as possible - not a fan of coaching by email.

In the end, taking some practical logistics into consideration is likely facilitate the athletes skating to the best of their capabilities - which is good for the sport. Having an extra two weeks with your coach, and a close friend there with you to compete, could really help a skater to be their best, at least I think so. To me it is just another little thing that can be done to help skaters get in the zone for lack of a better way to put it. And making it just a little bit easier on the skaters to do their best, means a greater likelihood of fans getting to see lights out performances.

And players get traded for weird reason and weird circumstances in other spots. They all have their head scratching why is it done that way moments, they are still a sport. Spots still have to deal with logistical crap - i cut them some slack on it.

I thought Carriere was not in the ISP this year. (a shame, I love his skating)

StitchMonkey said:

... I do think skaters have some choice in the matter, if they get multiple invites (I think Hanyu has said he tried to follow Chan around) so it could also be that they pick the GPs together. Given the choice I suspect both Adam and Ashley would pick each other's event. Likewise if Jason Brown were in invited to two GPs, and one also invited either Mariah Bell or Jordan Moeller, I think there is little question that his preference would be the one his friend is at. The fact that it would be easier on Kori is just a bonus, I still think it would be the skater's preference.

It is interesting how much you are focusing on the coaches angle for themselves. ...

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Re the first paragraph of your post that I have quoted:


Re the final sentence that I have quoted:

People are right in saying that the Federations probably aren't inviting for the sake of the making the job easier on coaches and are probably picking strategically, the skaters that I have talked about are ones at the top who get a higher priority in picking their preferred events because of their current standing internationally. If you have 3 skaters who are going all 6 events (if they each get 2 different) the coach will be spread thin and it's not beneficial to either team. Skater's don't get a choice of all 6 events and are told pick any that you want, they've got their own host picks and maybe another 2 or something and they'll more than likely pick the one they can match up with. Like Daisuke M. and Denis are not in competition with Gracie since they're different disciplines so I don't see why not they can go to the same event with their coach if they get the same invite. The skaters are probably thinking strategically with their own choices too.

This has nothing to do with the what criteria the Federations use to choose skaters to invite because I didn't even mention them at all, I'm an outsider so I'm basing it on what I can deduce. They are predictions after all.

Anyway I said earlier that Ashley will get SA not Gracie, to me they are both US #1.5 but Ashley is the champion so they'll probably take her.

golden411 said:

Re the first paragraph of your post that I have quoted:

I could be wrong, but my understanding of how the GP assignments work is vastly different from your scenario.
I am very skeptical that Jason (or any skater who is not a reigning Worlds medalist) would be given a choice (at all) of assignments. And even if I am wrong on that score, I am very skeptical that before making his choice, he would be informed of his non-medalist training-mate's assignment(s).​

Re the final sentence that I have quoted:

You're misunderstanding me. My problem is not the notion that coaches are being coddled. My problem is the notion that who coaches whom would have anything whatsoever to do with determining GP assignments. A very slippery slope.​

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I agree with you - I can't see two Feds waiting around to fill a spot while a skater consults with his friends! Also, I'm guessing that the driving factors behind any choices a skater might have would be 1) do I have a chance to win or at least medal there, so I can make the GPF, and 2) can I develop my fan base there.

Sweet as Jason is, I think he's also a steely competitor who wants to win, so likely he would think about medal possibilities.

My pick for Jason aside from Skate America is NHK. Japan clearly loves him, and the fed will invite him thinking he can't beat Hanyu and could likely finish behind Shoma Uno as well.

I wish they would be assigned by rankings and the fed's had absolutely zero say in it. It wouldn't be hard to have a rotating system where each event took turns hosting the number one ranked skater and so on down the line. I also think WR should play more of a role in the sport but hey...maybe now I'm asking way too much.

StitchMonkey said:

2 Yuzuru HANYU NHK/COR

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I wouldn't bet on that one - NHK and COR are back-to-back, and usually skaters choose their GPs so that they can take a 'rest' in between their assignments. At least the higher ranking skaters can usually do that.