Chartrand eyes Grand Prix podiums for 2015-16

2015 Canadian national silver medalist Alaine Chartrand hopes to improve her her standings in her second year on the Grand Prix circuit. [More]

“At Minto, I debuted my new short program and it went pretty well considering just how new it is,” she said. “I did an eight-triple long program for the first time. Not every jump was perfect, but I nailed all my combos and received lots of positive feedback on both programs. I feel that overall, things are going in the right direction and I just want to keep on that path moving forward.”

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She is currently in New Jersey participating in the Moran Memorial Championships.

I'm very excited for her! I've grown to like her a lot over last season. I love the ambition she has for learning harder jumps and combo jumps. Like a 3A. Also she did a 3Lz-1Lo-3S last season that got ratified. I'm going to Skate America this year for all events so I'm going to see her skate! I'm so excited! And also I'm making hats for some skaters at SA to throw on the ice. And this is hers.

https://instagram.com/p/40aR9fMTpa/

That's a cute hat.

sage said:

That's a cute hat.

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Thank you!

Very ambitious and good for her. With Osmond having trouble returning Chartrand could be the top Canadian. She will have to improve the amplitude - flow, size, and such of her jumps and continue to skate "bigger". It is always nice to hear all these threads about what skaters are doing to improve their position in the skating world I sometimes feel a little sad because you know there are only three podium spots. And sadly in many ways like gravity if someone moves up in the standings usually someone has to move down unless there were a lot of retirements. I wonder if she could beat say Polina Edmunds or some of the Japanese ladies or is that asking too much?

Skater Boy said:

Very ambitious and good for her. With Osmond having trouble returning Chartrand could be the top Canadian. She will have to improve the amplitude - flow, size, and such of her jumps and continue to skate "bigger". It is always nice to hear all these threads about what skaters are doing to improve their position in the skating world I sometimes feel a little sad because you know there are only three podium spots. And sadly in many ways like gravity if someone moves up in the standings usually someone has to move down unless there were a lot of retirements. I wonder if she could beat say Polina Edmunds or some of the Japanese ladies or is that asking too much?

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And even more harder considering Canada gets only 2 spots for ladies for worlds. I say if she goes super clean for both programs, which is hard for anyone to do, I say it's possible. Will it be hard, yes. Is it impossible, no.

Looks like we'll have another "Gone with the Wind" to go with Polina's... Not my favorite music for skaters, but I hope they both do very well with it.

Cheerknithanson, I love that hat!

Weathergal said:

Looks like we'll have another "Gone with the Wind" to go with Polina's... Not my favorite music for skaters, but I hope they both do very well with it.

Cheerknithanson, I love that hat!

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Thank you!

Weathergal said:

Looks like we'll have another "Gone with the Wind" to go with Polina's... Not my favorite music for skaters, but I hope they both do very well with it

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LOL, do these skaters call each other beforehand?! Like, nobody prominent does GWTW for years and now two top 11 skaters both have freeskates to it. It reminds of the year V/M and another ice dance team both did Pink Floyd freeskates.

Alaine's programs at Minto:

SP 56.60 3z+3t<<, 3lo, 2a↓
FS 112.36 3a<<↓, 3z+3t, 3lo, 3fe<<, 2a+1lo+3s, 3z<, 3s^2a

Not sure she would receive those scores from ISU techs and judges.

At Skate America, she faces Gold, Medvedeva, Miyahara and Tursynbaeva (who beat Daleman at Thornhill).
At Cup of Russia, she is unlikely to get the diluted field of last year. Slated are Radionova, Medvedeva and Edmunds, and possibly the return of Sotnikova.

Both events present stiff competition; to medal, she would need to score above 65 for the SP and over 120 for the FS. Her PB scores are 61.18 and 113.05, so significant improvement is required----no more double-footing and URs.

Um, she does NOT need 185 to medal. A lot depends on how others skate. She will have her work cut out for her at Skate America, but Gold and Miyahara have had sub-180 competitions last season. Cup of Russia she stands a chance to nab bronze if Sotnikova and Edmunds skate poorly (one assumes Radionova/Medvedova will be consistent). For a solid shot at bronze she needs about 180, which will require improvement but isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Other GP minimums to medal (beat the bronze medalist) last year:
SA - 179.39
SC - 181.76
TEB - 177.75
CoC - 169.40
CoR (where she won bronze) - 172.00
NHK - 179.03

Average score needed to win bronze over last year's bronze medalists: 176.56 (incidentally Hongo managed to win bronze at 4CC with 177 points)

4CC doesn't have any Russian skaters---it's not comparable to a GP event. Alaine was 10th at 4CC, after bronze at CoR and silver at Canadians, which shows just how inconsistent she can be.

Sure, other skaters can have subpar skates---but Alaine herself is just as apt to have an off skate as a good one. She tends to be sloppy, with lots of stepouts, all but one of her 3/3s have been UR internationally, and she lips.

Even when they have subpar efforts, Worlds/Oly top 4 Gracie, World medalist Satoko, and OGM Sotnikova will still get high PCS scores, so you can't depend on a mistake or two to take them down low enough to be beatable by anything other than a perfect Chartrand with a clean 3a . Even 4CC Champion Polina commands respect now, and her win has made her more confident.

It's a big mistake to go into a competition assuming that others will fail enough to pave the way to the podium. Sure, that happened last year at CoR, but that was a sadly depleted field, with nearly half the field being replaced with substitute skaters, and then a withdrawal after the SP.

No, a lot DOESN'T depend on how others skate. For Alaine, it ALL depends only on how SHE skates.

chuckm said:

4CC doesn't have any Russian skaters---it's not comparable to a GP event. Alaine was 10th at 4CC, after bronze at CoR and silver at Canadians, which shows just how inconsistent she can be.

Sure, other skaters can have subpar skates---but Alaine herself is just as apt to have an off skate as a good one. She tends to be sloppy, with lots of stepouts, all but one of her 3/3s have been UR internationally, and she lips.

Even when they have subpar efforts, Worlds/Oly top 4 Gracie, World medalist Satoko, and OGM Sotnikova will still get high PCS scores, so you can't depend on a mistake or two to take them down low enough to be beatable by anything other than a perfect Chartrand with a clean 3a . Even 4CC Champion Polina commands respect now, and her win has made her more confident.

It's a big mistake to go into a competition assuming that others will fail enough to pave the way to the podium. Sure, that happened last year at CoR, but that was a sadly depleted field, with nearly half the field being replaced with substitute skaters, and then a withdrawal after the SP.

No, a lot DOESN'T depend on how others skate. For Alaine, it ALL depends only on how SHE skates.

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And you're absolutely right. She needs to focus on how she skates and not worry about others. Just as any athlete will do, even if they're in a team sport like I am...and tend to worry more about how my teammates will do as I'm pretty confident in how I do lol. It's more about earning it than others faltering enough where the point totals says it all....Did that make sense....? Like the last sentence I mean?

Oh of course Alaine still has to skate well. They all do - As I said Gold and Miyahara have had sub-180 skates; skaters like Sotnikova are a question mark (even with high PCS she will still have to hit the jumps).

But chuckm, your assessment of how well Alaine has to skate isn't accurate. At least going by last season's GP stats. I would say she needs to skate better than last season to have a chance of winning a medal but not necessarily a whole 13 points above her personal best, as you're suggesting.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Oh of course Alaine still has to skate well. They all do - As I said Gold and Miyahara have had sub-180 skates; skaters like Sotnikova are a question mark (even with high PCS she will still have to hit the jumps).

But chuckm, your assessment of how well Alaine has to skate isn't accurate. At least going by last season's GP stats. I would say she needs to skate better than last season to have a chance of winning a medal but not necessarily a whole 13 points above her personal best, as you're suggesting.

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And ANYTHING can happen. Like last season I did not expect that Javi would get beat by Takahito Mura at Skate Canada. In fact, I didn't think of Mura getting on the podium. And plus I didn't think Yulia would have meltdowns in her FP. Plus quite a few more surprises. So who knows.

But yes, everyone needs to skate well.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Oh of course Alaine still has to skate well. They all do - As I said Gold and Miyahara have had sub-180 skates; skaters like Sotnikova are a question mark (even with high PCS she will still have to hit the jumps).

But chuckm, your assessment of how well Alaine has to skate isn't accurate. At least going by last season's GP stats. I would say she needs to skate better than last season to have a chance of winning a medal but not necessarily a whole 13 points above her personal best, as you're suggesting.

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Yeah it seems kinda an arbitrary guess. So many examples of surprises last season.

With Alaine, I would much rather see a long program with fully rotated jumps rather than a 3A attempt. She still gets ding'ed on her flip and lots of URs. Best to get the 3Lz-3T down pact first.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

Oh of course Alaine still has to skate well. They all do - As I said Gold and Miyahara have had sub-180 skates; skaters like Sotnikova are a question mark (even with high PCS she will still have to hit the jumps).

But chuckm, your assessment of how well Alaine has to skate isn't accurate. At least going by last season's GP stats. I would say she needs to skate better than last season to have a chance of winning a medal but not necessarily a whole 13 points above her personal best, as you're suggesting.

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Look at NHK last year. Gold skated a clean SP and scored 68.16. Alaine's clean SP at CoR scored 61.18. The difference? Gracie got higher GOE on every single element (they had exactly the same jumps) and Gracie got high 7s and mid 8s in PCS while Alaine's were mostly in the 6s. In the NHK FS, Gracie was far from clean: 3z+2t, 2a+3t, 3lo, 3f!, 3z, 3s↓, 2a+2t. No 3/3, the usual lip, a fall on the salchow, no 3-jump combo. Yet she scored 123 points, receiving 8s in her PCS scores.

Gracie did not skate well at Skate America last year, that is true. But she had been touring all summer in a post-Olympic show in Japan, returning home only a week or so before Skate America, clearly fatigued. She still was able to land her 3/3 in both programs. However, she messed up her final spin in the SP which cost her 4.5 points, and in the FS she did only 2a+2t then forgot and did the 3 jump combo, which didn't count (too many 2t). She still managed to score 60.81 in the SP and 118.57 in the FS for a total 179.38 and a bronze medal. That was her one and only "sub 180" performance of the year---and would have been enough to win her gold at CoR last year, btw. Gracie scored 191.17 at NHK (gold), 188.96 at Worlds (4th), and 195.66 WTT (ladies 3rd, team silver).


Alaine's FS at CoR didn't have any falls but she was hit with 4 URs, which can be more costly than a fall: 3z+1lo<+3s<, 3fe, 3lo, 2a+3t<, 3z, 3s<+2t, 2a
She scored 110.82, with PCS scores in the low 7s. The URs caused her to place lower (172) than Pogo (173.43) and Hongo (178) and she fell from first to third.
Alaine scored 156.22 at SC (7th), 161.22 4CC (8th), 161.18 Worlds (11th), 136.54 WTT Ladies 11th, Team 4th

Hongo went on to win bronze at 4CC (177.44), then placed 6th at Worlds (184.58)---oh, and BTW Hongo is one of the seeds at CoR, and is the defending CoR champion.

Miyahara's low score (NHK) 179.02 was good enough for bronze; SC 181.75 bronze; 4CC 181.66 silver; Worlds 193.60 silver; WTT 189.64 Ladies 5th, Team bronze

I would not consider scores of 179 and change "sub 180", particularly in Miyahara's case. She is a very consistent skater and now that she is a World medalist, you can expect her PCS scores to go up and her base 180 will likely go up to 185. As for Gracie, she should be in great shape for this year's Skate America as she did not do extensive touring this summer. Her performances at the Glacier Falls summer competition were simply spectacular: 70.39 SP, 132.15 FS, 202.54 total.

Alaine's 168.96 at Minto looks pretty anemic in comparison. Yes, she is going to have to improve quite a bit to be competitive with the top dogs because the top dogs have to improve, too, to maintain their place in the pecking order. On that basis, 13 points is not an exaggeration. Miyahara's and Gold's scores this season ranged 15 points or less from lowest to highest. OTOH, Alaine's had a 35-point variance, from a low of 136.54 to a high of 172. She is a far less consistent skater than they are---she had just the one performance at the 172 level; all the others were well below that.

When you consider that Miyahara's two high scores were 189 and 193 and Gold's 191 and 195, adding 13 points to Chartrand's 172 might not put her in scoring distance, if you consider that both Satoko and Gracie may also have been working hard on improving their skating in the off-season.

I'm not sure what your point is. I was merely stating that Chartrand would have to skate better and if she put out a 180 and Gold (who isn't exactly known for strong GPs) or Miyahara (who has scored below 180 in the past) really flub, then Alaine (or a number of other skaters) might defeat either of them. It's unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility. I'm sure many of us would have said Hongo would need at least 185 to beat Pogorilaya who was the shoe in to win CoR.

Also by your same logic regarding Gold's scores, Chartrand at CoR was hit with 4 URs (and a lip), yet she still scored 110.82 points. So 115-120 isn't out of reach for her (and 120 is easily attainable if she is ever able to land the 3A).

As far as needing 120+ to medal... um, Polina scored 116 in her FS at Worlds last year and she was reigning 4CC Gold medalist. Point being, even the top skaters can have an off day - especially one as inconsistent as Gold - so if Chartrand skates better than her past best, there is the chance to win a medal. Almost every skater has at least one bad competition in a season and at least one very good competition in a season. Depending on when they bring out their best and when others falter, anything can happen. And Chartrand increasing her difficulty can only help her. Nobody expected her to win a GP bronze - until circumstances helped her win (namely a clean SP and people who were predicted to place ahead of her like Park/Nagasu, didn't).

I don't expect Alaine's PCS to go above 30/60, but I still think she can do enough to get up to 180 (clean SP would get about 63 points, cleaner FS than CoR would get about 117 points) which might be enough for a bronze -- given that 5 out of 6 Grand Prix bronze medals last year were won with scores below 180, and the highest anyone needed for bronze last year was 181.76, and the average score needed for a bronze last year was 176. So, yes, Chartrand must likely improve to about 180 to have a shot at bronze, but unless the ladies field monstrously improves compared to last season, your 185 figure is probably too high (statistically speaking). 180 would have been enough for 7th at Worlds last year... so I'm pretty sure it would stand a chance to medal on the GP.

Unless Kaetlyn Osmond really gets back to true fighting shape like in 2012/13, or we import a skater from Russia who didn't make the world squad, Canada needs a leading lady to step up and slay the competition. Alaine could be the answer.

(We miss you Joannie)

Or we could get Meagan Duhamel to sub in. She's already got a triple lutz/flip/salchow/toe.