Who will make it to the JGP final? | Golden Skate

Who will make it to the JGP final?

The Finn

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2015
So, It is quite early to start speculate about this especially since we haven't even seen Sakhanovich and Higuchi yet but I will do it anyway.

Top canditates for the JGPF:
15 points: Tsurskaya, Sotskova, Shiraiwa
13 points: Mihara, Sakamoto, Honda
0 points: Sakhanovich, Higuchi

Other canditates:
11 points: Da Bin Choi
9 points: Fedichkina, Nitaya
0 points: Proklova

At the moment startlists look like this. However, changes are possible of course.

JGP Austria: Sotskova, Mihara, Higuchi, Da Bin Choi
JGP Poland: Tsurskaya, Sakhanovich, Sakamoto, Nitaya
JGP Spain: Fedichkina, Proklova, Honda, Aoki
JGP Croatia: Sakhanovich, Proklova, Higuchi, Shiraiwa

So, how will this play out?
- Tsurskaya and Sotskova will make it if nothing catastrophic happens.
- Mihara will make it if she beats Higuchi and Da Bin Choi and finish at least 2nd in Austria.
- I doubt Sakamoto would make it because Tsurskaya and Sakhanovich will skate at the same event and even if she beats Nitaya and finish 3rd that will not help because 24 points without a win might not be enough for her.
- Sakhanovich should be OK. She should be 2nd in Spain and she should't place any worst than that in Croatia either.
- Fedichkina has a real chance to surprise everyone. That is because she is good enough to win in Spain and 24 points with a win might just be enough for a place at JGPF.
- Higuchi has a tough job ahead. She will face Sotskova and Mihara in Austria and Sakhanovich and Shiraiwa in Croatia. She could make it but I could easily see that she would end up been 3rd in Austria and 2nd in Croatia.
- With a win at Colorado the JGPF spot is Shiraiwa's to lose. Shiraiwa might make it but I could see her been 4th in Croatia in which case she might not make it.
- At the moment things looks pretty good for Honda. She might very well be at least 2nd in Spain which would be enough for her. Although, we haven't seen Proklova yet.
- I doubt that we will see Nitaya, Da Bin Choi or Proklova at the JGPF.

My predictions
Tsurskaya 30 (15+15)
Sotskova 30 (15+15)
Sakhanovich 28 (13+15)
Mihara 26 (13+13)
Honda 26 (13+13)
Fedichkina 24 (9+15)
------------------------
Shiraiwa 24 (15+9)
Higuchi 24 (11+13)
Sakamoto 24 (13+11)
 

Li'Kitsu

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
Higuchi not making it sounds pretty... obscure to me at the moment. She might come out and have troubles this season, but given everything we saw last season and in ice shows this summer I don't expect her to break down - and as long as Higuchi delivers good skates, she's in. She was a relative no-name last season and nearly beat Sakhanovich at the last JW, both skating clean I wouldn't be surprised at all if Higuchi came out on top.

For now, I'd say Sotskova and Tsurskaya will make it (duh :p ). Honda has pretty good chances due to her 2nd GP being Spain (and Proklova is coming back from injury again ;___;). Higuchi and Sakhanovich also seem likely, even if we haven't seen them until now. And last spot I guess will be Mihara or Shiraiwa.
 

samm22

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 22, 2015
Higuchi not making it sounds pretty... obscure to me at the moment. She might come out and have troubles this season, but given everything we saw last season and in ice shows this summer I don't expect her to break down - and as long as Higuchi delivers good skates, she's in. She was a relative no-name last season and nearly beat Sakhanovich at the last JW, both skating clean I wouldn't be surprised at all if Higuchi came out on top.

For now, I'd say Sotskova and Tsurskaya will make it (duh :p ). Honda has pretty good chances due to her 2nd GP being Spain (and Proklova is coming back from injury again ;___;). Higuchi and Sakhanovich also seem likely, even if we haven't seen them until now. And last spot I guess will be Mihara or Shiraiwa.

I completely agree! :)
 

Layback11

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
Remember, Vivian Le has 26 points. That's the same as a few of the girls you had qualifying...there may be hope yet!
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Remember, Vivian Le has 26 points. That's the same as a few of the girls you had qualifying...there may be hope yet!

She only has 22. Two bronzes equal that. I think her odds are pretty low, but not impossible. Basically you would need the gold medalists so far to win their second events and a few girls with silvers to bomb to 5th or lower.

I won't be too bummed if she doesn't make it this year. She probably will be on the JGP at least one more season.
 
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Layback11

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
She only has 22. Two bronzes equal that. I think her odds are pretty low, but not impossible. Basically you would need the gold medalists so far to win their second events and a few girls with silvers to bomb to 5th or lower.

I won't be too bummed if she doesn't make it this year. She probably will be on the JGP at least one more season.

Oh, I thought it was 15-14-13 for the medals like on the senior GP...huh.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Oh, I thought it was 15-14-13 for the medals like on the senior GP...huh.

JGP amd GP are both the same. 15-13-11-9-7-5-4-3-2-1 and zero points for rankings below 10th

***

I'd like to look at other disciplines.

MEN:

Current standings:

Nathan Chen (15; 236.76; JGP Spain)
Dmtri Aliev (15; 209.92; JGP Austria)
Roman Sandovsky (15; 203.72; JGP Poland)
Daniel Samohin (13; 207.17; JGP Spain)
Deniss Vasiljevs (13; 204.60; JGP Poland)
Vincent Zhou (13; 200.85; JGP Austria)
---
Sota Yamamoto (11; 203.68; JGP Poland)
Alexei Krasnozhon (11; 194.68; JGP Poland)
Denis Margalik (11; 191.72; JGP Spain)
Yaroslav Patriot (9 ; 192.04; JGP Spain)
Kevin Aymoz (9; no second JGP assignment, though that could change)
Alexander Samarin (9; 186.25; JGP Spain)

Another possible contender who has yet to compete:
Andrei Lazukin, RUS (JGP Spain, Croatia)


Everyone is in Poland, so we may see some folks take themselves out or a whole bunch of people secure their fates! Sota Yamamoto will likely need to win in Poland to get on the JGP final since two folks above him currently (Roman and Deniss have more points currently). His point total in 3rd is actually just below Roman's score in his win at Bratslavia, so this is totally possible.

Nathan looks good to get another win in Spain.

Vincent Zhou will need a win in Austria. He will likely lose a tiebreaker if he gets silver, which I think is the likely outcome if Dmtri performs to his highest potential there. Daniel Samohin can get another silver and has a good score, so will likely get a berch.

My prediction:

Nathan Chen (15+15= 30)
Dmtri Aliev (15+15 =30).
Soto Yamamoto (11+15=26)
Roman Sandovsky(15+11=26)
Daniel Samohin (13+13=26)
Deniss Vaslijevs (13+13=26)
--
Vincent Zhou (13+13=26 loses tiebreaker)
Alexei Kranozshon (11+11+ =22)

I think this roster would be quite fun cause it would me we would have six different countries represented! (USA, Russia, Japan, Canada, Israel, Lativia).
 
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Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Dance:

McNamara/Carpenter, USA, 15, 159.31, JGP Croatia
Parsons/Parsons, USA, 15. 149.92, JGP Poland
Popova/Vlasenko, RUS 15, 146.35 JGP Poland
Loboda/Drozd, RUS 13, 147.38 JGP Austria
Abachkina/Thauron, FRA 13, 139.05, JGP Poland
Bent/Razgulajevs, CAN 13, 133.27, JGP Spain
---
Shevcheniko/Eremenko, RUS, 11, 138.84, JGP Spain
Evdokimova/Bazin, RUS, 11, 132.57, JGP Austria
Polishchuk/Vakhnov, RUS, 11, 129.83, No second event assigned)
Carreira/Ponomarkeno, USA, 9, 131.25, JGP Spain
Konkina/Reviya, RUS, 9, 129.01, JGP Croatia

Still to compete:
Anastasia SHPILEVAYA / Grigory SMIRNOV, RUS
Elliana POGREBINSKY / Alex BENOIT, USA

McNamara/Carpenter look good to win a second event. Loboda/Drozd should win in Austria and clench a berth. A bunch of teams face each other in Poland.

My prediction

McNamera/Carpenter - (15+15 = 30)
Parsons/Parsons - (15+15 - 30)
Loboda/Drozd - (13+15=28)
Popova/Vlasenko (15+13=28)
Shevheniko/Eremenko - (11+15=26)
Abachinkoa/Thauron - (13+13=26)
--
Bent/Razgulajevs (13+13=26; loses tiebreaker)
 

silverfoxes

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 16, 2014
Poland will be interesting for the men. Sota, Deniss, Roman, Alexei...I guess it depends if Colorado was just a fluke for Sota. I expect Deniss to do about the same there, and Roman isn't the most consistent. Alexei could possibly improve in his FS, but I still don't see him beating the other men.

We also haven't seen He Zhang (CHN) yet, Shu Nakamura (JPN), Taichi Honda (JPN), or Vlad Tarasenko (RUS). I don't expect them to be huge factors (Tarasenko didn't even make the podium at the small comp in Moscow last week), but Lazukin is a big question mark. I don't know about the Japanese guys.

I hope your predictions are right, Mrs. P. I like this group overall much more than the JGP final last season.
 
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malif

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 22, 2014
Tsurskaya and Sotskova must go to the final easily because we had seen how they are good.

Sakhanovich and Higuchi must be in the final because they were among the best last year and
we had not heard about any catastrophe happening to them.

I dont believe too much in the chances of A.Proklova due to her continuous injuries.

This said, for two remaining places there should be a battle between Honda, Shiraiva, and Fedichkina [frankly speaking I dont see why Alicia may not be ahead of Marin at their face to face at stage 6, put it 50:50].
I consider chances of Sakamoto and Mihara quite meager due to their placement in the hard events, unless Japan federation will shuffle the distribution. It is regrettable for me because I liked Mihara more (and she obtained better score) than Honda and Shiraiwa
Finally, with her 22 points, Vivian Le has strictly 0 chances this year (good luck next year Vivian).
 

bluelutz

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 23, 2003
Most likely the final consists only Russian and Japanese like last year.
Three Russians are going to be Polina, Maria & Serafima.
Three Japanese are harder to predict,
but probably Wakaba, Yuna_S and one of other three, Mai, Kaori & Marin,
all those three second finishers have to finish second or higher for their next ones.
Because Yuna_S won, even if she finishes 4th her next one, she will be in.

Of course, we have not seen Serafima and Wakaba yet,
but I can hardly see they finish lower than the second @theirs if they are healthy enough.

Who can be a spoiler?
Dabin was third @her first one, so she can be in if she wins her next one.
However, she is an excellent jumper without much else,
I do not think judges will give her enough PCS to beat Russian & Japanese girls.

Alisa can be in if she wins her next one.
According to the ISU assignments, at this moment, only one can block that is Marin.
But very possibly Japanese federation will switch the assignments,
and send Mai or Kaori, or both, to ESP because this one got the easier field.
If so, Alisa's win will be much more difficult.

If Yuna_S gets another assignment @ESP since she and Marin shares the coach,
for the spot now assigned to Yuna_A,
it is going to be a good news for Alisa since it can be easier to beat Yuna_S than beating Mai or Kaori.

Rin Nitaya was 4th @her first one, which means she can also be in if she wins her next one.
But she is up against Polina again, which kills her possibility pretty much.

If Japanese and Russian federations will not do any switching,
Alisa and Marin are going to be lucky ones.

We will see.
 
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MalAssada

Medalist
Joined
Jun 28, 2014
I think the top six will be much easier to determine after next week, with Wakaba and Serafima presenting her programs, but I bet on them both getting a spot.
 

malif

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 22, 2014
Tsurskaya and Sotskova must go to the final easily because we had seen how they are good.

Sakhanovich and Higuchi must be in the final because they were among the best last year and
we had not heard about any catastrophe happening to them.

I dont believe too much in the chances of A.Proklova due to her continuous injuries.

This said, for two remaining places there should be a battle between Honda, Shiraiva, and Fedichkina [frankly speaking I dont see why Alicia may not be ahead of Marin at their face to face at stage 6, put it 50:50].
I consider chances of Sakamoto and Mihara quite meager due to their placement in the hard events, unless Japan federation will shuffle the distribution. It is regrettable for me because I liked Mihara more (and she obtained better score) than Honda and Shiraiwa
Finally, with her 22 points, Vivian Le has strictly 0 chances this year (good luck next year Vivian).
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
There's one more spoiler for the JGPF from the U.S.: Bradie Tennell. She is competing in Austria and Spain. She is the jr. U.S. champ last year (beating Le and Serafimi) and she is pretty consistent. If she doesn't end up in the JGPF, she could possibly spoil a berth for someone else.
 

Layback11

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 18, 2014
There's one more spoiler for the JGPF from the U.S.: Bradie Tennell. She is competing in Austria and Spain. She is the jr. U.S. champ last year (beating Le and Serafimi) and she is pretty consistent. If she doesn't end up in the JGPF, she could possibly spoil a berth for someone else.

Yes!!! She probably won't get higher than 3rd in Poland unless somebody has a meltdown, but you never know. She was really strong at Skate Detroit-I see no reason she couldn't be a factor.
 

malif

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 22, 2014
Oh, that's interesting. We just need someone to make the Spain event more competitive than it looks like.
 

Sam-Skwantch

“I solemnly swear I’m up to no good”
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2013
Country
United-States
I'm not sure why so many are counting Proklova out or not even factoring her in. The latest reports are that she was having boot issues and wasn't actually injured earlier. Her presentation alone will smash everything we saw in Colorado. If she can land her jumps I'd put her as a favorite to win JWC so I at least think she should be considered a potential favorite for making the JGPF.

Actually with Proklova facing Marin and Yuna in Spain things could really heat up there in terms of JGPF births especially if Bradie is capable of going clean and Alisa can perform her FS well. I think the later two are capable of giving both Yuna and Marin a run for their money too. Should be a fun event where I could see at least five medal contenders. You never know who will surprise us either at these things.
 
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breathesgelatin

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 12, 2013
I'd like to take a stab at pairs. With fewer events, in some ways, it is easier to predict, in other ways, harder.

Current standings:

Ognasien/Bardei (15; 144.29; JGP Austria)
Gubanova/Sintsov (15; 140.16; JGP Poland)
Weinberg/Fernandez (13; 136.62; not assigned)
Borisova/Sopot (11; 135.42; JGP Poland)
Ivanova/Khakimov (11; 134.07; not assigned)
Duskova/Bidar (9; 134.83; JGP Austria)
--
Hoffman/Chudak (9; 129.34; JGP Poland)
Mishina/Mirzoev (7; 128.01; JGP Austria)
Ustimkina/Volodin (7; 122.11; not assigned)

Other possible contenders who've not yet competed:
Liu/Johnson (JGP Austria and Poland)
Atakhanova/Spiridonov (JGP Austria and Poland)


Ognasien/Bardei and Gubanova/Sintsov both have a strong chance of winning both their events. However, Atakhanova/Spiridonov just scored 139 or so at an internal Russian competition, and looked very strong. So they could play spoiler for the gold at either remaining event, especially against Gubanova/Sintsov. But regardless of the exact placement, I think A/S will get to the final. USFSA will surely, if they have any sense, substitute Weinberg/Fernandez into Poland. W/F looked quite promising in Colorado Springs, especially for a new pair, and with a silver at Colorado Springs have a great shot to make the Final. Ivanova/Khakimov also don't have a second event, but their placement was third, and I'm not sure if Russia will want to push them over any of their other pairs. Maybe some other posters with more knowledge of the internal situation in Russia can speak to that.

If we assume O/B, G/S, A/S, and W/F into the final, that leaves us to consider 3 pairs with very similar personal bests: Borisova/Sopot (135.42), Liu/Johnson (134.97), Duskova/Bidar (134.83).

Liu/Johnson are coming off injury, so I'm not sure what to think about them in particular. I like Borisova/Sopot's programs. I am excited about Duskova/Bidar because I love to see pairs from smaller federations. So I'm not quite sure how to place them!

It really seems to be a rebuilding year for Canadian junior pairs, I guess! Also a little disappointed the Chinese pairs didn't have a stronger showing in Riga.

I also don't know anything about Caldara/Caputo to know how they will stack up...


My prediction:

Ognasien/Bardei (15+15=30)
Gubanova/Sintsov (15+15=30)
Atakhanova/Spiridonov (13+13=26)
Weinberg/Fernandez (13+11=24)
Liu/Johnson (11+9=20)
Duskova/Bidar (9+11=20)
--
Borisova/Sopot (11+7=18)

So that would be Austria with:
1. O/B
2. A/S
3. L/J
4. D/B

And Poland with:
1. G/S
2. A/S
3. W/F
4. L/J
5. B/S

In Austria to me the big question is if L/J can pick off D/B. Their personal bests are very, very close. Poland is more competitive. I put L/J behind W/F and ahead of B/S which I am really not sure of at all.
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
At Lake Placid Ice Dance, Pogrebinsky & Benoit won one of the two non ISU Junior competitions.
McNamara & Carpenter won the other. Both sections had the same tech panel and judges, so scores are comparable.


p&B 83.40 + 54.50 = 137.90

m&c 87.28 + 60.03 = 147.31

Considering how McNamara & Carpenter just lapped the field here by 26 points (scorng 12 points more than at LPIDC), Pogrebinsky and Benoit have to be considered a threat to medal. They are a relatively new (last season) and very rapidly improving team, coached by Igor Shpilband.
 
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The Finn

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2015
I'm not sure why so many are counting Proklova out or not even factoring her in. The latest reports are that she was having boot issues and wasn't actually injured earlier. Her presentation alone will smash everything we saw in Colorado. If she can land her jumps I'd put her as a favorite to win JWC so I at least think she should be considered a potential favorite for making the JGPF.

Don't know about others but I do consider her to be a contender for making the JGPF. However, the quality of other Russian and Japanese ladies is so high that I doubt she will make it to JGPF. She is one of the potential surprise skaters for sure and even if not making it herself she could very well ruin the chances of some of the japanese ladies.

Actually with Proklova facing Marin and Yuna in Spain things could really heat up there in terms of JGPF births especially if Bradie is capable of going clean and Alisa can perform her FS well. I think the later two are capable of giving both Yuna and Marin a run for their money too. Should be a fun event where I could see at least five medal contenders. You never know who will surprise us either at these things.

At the moment Spain looks perfect fit for Alisa and she can definitely win there. I am really looking forward to JGP Spain but I just hope Japan doesn't do any changes because I don't want to see Mihara or Higuchi there. And I definitely don't want to see Polina, Maria or Sima there.
 
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