Who will make it to the GP final? | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Who will make it to the GP final?

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
After Skate America:

Pairs
Almost certain to make the final: Sui/Han
Could make the final, depending on tiebreakers but none of them very likely to make it (in order from most to last likely): Stolbova/Kilmov, Scimeca/Knerim. Seguin/Bilodeau.

Ladies
Almost Certain to make the final: Medvedeva
Very likely to make the final: Gold
Could make the final,not likely: Satoko

Men
Could make the final: Uno, Aaron

Dance
Will make final: Chock/Bates
Could make final: Sinasina/Katsalopov, Gillies/Porier
 

actualrealliveanna

On the Ice
Joined
May 10, 2015
It's hard to say, but both Gracie and Evgenia will probably make the final, as will Mao and Liza. I expect to see Wagner and Pogorilaya take the last two spots.
 

winky97

Medalist
Joined
Mar 3, 2014
With two Events in I am liking both Gracie's and Ashley's chances of making the final. Tuk showed herself to have some fight at SC so she should be able to get in. Evgenia will probably make it in. I am not a fan of her backloaded arm over the head for most every jump skating style, but it works for her. Have not seen the other ladies but it is hard to envision Mao not making it. Lastly, I am hoping Radionova is in good condition and will make it.
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
Continuing my analysis, after Skate Canada:

Pairs
Almost certain to make the final: Duhamel/Radford, Sui/Han
Likely to make the final: Tarasova/Mozorov
Could make the final, depending on tiebreakers but none of them very likely to make it (in order from most to last likely): Stolbova/Kilmov, Scimeca/Knerim, Seguin/Bilodeau, Moore-Towers/Marinaro.

Ladies
Almost Certain to make the final: Medvedeva, Tuktamysheva
Very likely to make the final: Wagner, Gold
Could make the final,not likely: Satoko

Men
Very likely to make the final (would almost say certain but we are talking about men): Chan, Hanyu
Could make the final: Uno, Aaron
Extreme outside shot: Murakami

Dance
Will make final: Chock/Bates
Extremely likely to make final: Weaver/Poje, Shibutanis
Could make final: Sinasina/Katsalopov, Gillies/Porier, Bobrova/Soloviev
 
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sabinfire

Doing the needful
Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 30, 2014
I think Adelina will win Rostelecom. Would expect her to get huge PCS.

I hope not. I'm not even sure why she's going, since she has absolutely zero chance of making the Grand Prix Final, and likely will only take away points from her comrades Medvedeva and Radionova (if she does well).

Can you imagine if they failed to qualify for the GPF because Adelina placed above them at Rostelecom? :hslap:
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
I hope not. I'm not even sure why she's going, since she has absolutely zero chance of making the Grand Prix Final, and likely will only take away points from her comrades Medvedeva and Radionova (if she does well).

Can you imagine if they failed to qualify for the GPF because Adelina placed above them at Rostelecom? :hslap:

Agree with this, though at this point I don't think she has much real chance to finish above them unless her LP has improved a lot in terms of the technical elements
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I hope not. I'm not even sure why she's going, since she has absolutely zero chance of making the Grand Prix Final, and likely will only take away points from her comrades Medvedeva and Radionova (if she does well).

Can you imagine if they failed to qualify for the GPF because Adelina placed above them at Rostelecom? :hslap:

Maybe she wants to compete? If they failed to qualify for the GOF because of her then they should avoid that by skating better than Adelina?
 

sabinfire

Doing the needful
Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 30, 2014
Maybe she wants to compete? If they failed to qualify for the GOF because of her then they should avoid that by skating better than Adelina?

She could compete in other events. Since she can't make the GPF, why not do something like the Challenger series instead? If she wanted to compete in the GP series, why is she only doing one event in Russia?

Adelina shouldn't compete at Rostelecom, IMO, because PCS might come into play, rather than simply "skating better":

Adelina is competing in her first season as a reigning OGM in Russia.

Elena is the reigning Russian National champion.

Evgenia won a gold at Skate America last week and is the strongest Russian lady, as of this moment. Will she receive equal or higher PCS than Adelina or Elena?
 

winky97

Medalist
Joined
Mar 3, 2014
I hope not. I'm not even sure why she's going, since she has absolutely zero chance of making the Grand Prix Final, and likely will only take away points from her comrades Medvedeva and Radionova (if she does well).

Can you imagine if they failed to qualify for the GPF because Adelina placed above them at Rostelecom? :hslap:

I don't think that Adelina can beat either of them, but she might surprise me. She has before. I actually found it curious that these three are at Rostelcom going at each other. I understand that Elena likely ended up there because she is Russian Nat Champion and they used the host pick for Adelina but could the Russian Skating Federation not avoid having Evgenia there and instead have her at another GP event or did they have no control and Evgenia and Elena got whichever event they got.
 

kalee

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 13, 2014
Although I believe Adelina could win, that's not what I want either. Aside from Evgenia and Elena, there is also Rika Hongo who could contend for the GPF so Adelina's participation is making for an over-crowded podium.
As to why she is in one GP -- speculating (pure conjecture) that since she is coming back from injury it could be a way of easing her into competition to get exposure (and points) without throwing her into an overly hectic schedule.
 

Li'Kitsu

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
If she just "wants to compete", why is she only competing at Rostelecom?

Because she didn't want to make it to the GPF - too close to nationals for her this season (with an explanation along the line of coming back from injury and 2 high-pressure events so close would only make it more difficult for her come nats). That's why her name was never thrown in when the GP were assigned, so no chance of any non-russian GP. But she got the host pick for CoR and took it - nothing wrong with that.

She also did a Challenger event, but the scoring and pressure there is something completely else. CoR is going to help her more than doing a 2nd Challenger event in preparation for nats.
Also, she wasn't held up above Anna P. in said event either, who has less international or national rep than either Elena or Evgenia. So I think the notion of Adelina winning based on unfair PCS is a little... unwarranted.

And to be honest, I find this 'she'll only steal points from the others!' argument to be quite weird. You want to make the GPF, you gotta skate better than the skaters at your specific event - end of the story. And the fields are always pretty uneven anayway. Just compare TEB to NHK. If Elena and Rika have any real reason to feel they have a harder way to the GPF than others it's because they already face Mao in China.
 

sabinfire

Doing the needful
Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 30, 2014
And to be honest, I find this 'she'll only steal points from the others!' argument to be quite weird. You want to make the GPF, you gotta skate better than the skaters at your specific event - end of the story.

It's not that weird. Pretty common for the feds to do everything in their power to develop the most favorable event lineups they can, especially when it comes to their own skaters. I would find it just as silly if at Skate America, we saw Gracie, Ashley, and Polina all going head-to-head, especially if, say Ashley, was only doing one GP event.

Nothing personal against any skaters at Rostelecom, I would have the same opinion regardless who it was. I just want the best chances for our ladies to succeed and make it to the final! :hap85:
 

Li'Kitsu

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
It's not that weird. Pretty common for the feds to do everything in their power to develop the most favorable event lineups they can, especially when it comes to their own skaters. I would find it just as silly if at Skate America, we saw Gracie, Ashley, and Polina all going head-to-head, especially if, say Ashley, was only doing one GP event.

Nothing personal against any skaters at Rostelecom, I would have the same opinion regardless who it was. I just want the best chances for our ladies to succeed and make it to the final! :hap85:

But Russia has too many great ladies, they have to have a stacked field with their own skaters somewhere :drama:

Evgenia already won SA, I'm sure she'll make the GPF anyway. And Elena is Elena, one of the few ladies you can usually trust to deliver :yes: And I really, really need her to make the GPF, I need to see my little sunshine princess live :love:
 

fairly4

Medalist
Joined
Oct 28, 2007
my initial based on what I saw so far is

Mao,
Gracie,
Ashley
Elizaveta
Evgenia
Elena,

I am doing the ladies the rest is too loaded and it can be just who wins and how they finish,

with a win more/less possibly guaranteed unless they bomb their next event.

teb both gracie and elizaveta came in 2nd.

max won sa but competes against Patrick/denis chan-can mess things up/ shomo who beat him in the free skate, daisuke and maxim at teb

to load

with cup of china and of the top 3 can win; chock and bates guaranteed a placement not a win.


the pairs voloshar /trankov , Duhamel Radford for sure.

but the unexpected places of the Canadians through things off as well peng/zhang skating back to back and stolbova and klimov not placing.

so I honestly don't know.


good luck to all.

even in Russia weaver poje not guarantted a win a placement but not a win
 

NaVi

Medalist
Joined
Oct 30, 2014
Mao,
Gracie,
Ashley
Elizaveta
Evgenia
Elena,

Well, Rika has the best shot for that last spot written in for Elena(and Sotoko has a small chance to grab it too). I give Rika a 70% chance, Elena a 25% chance, and Sotoko a 5% chance of making the GPF. If Elena wants to make the GPF, she'll either have to win her next Grand Prix Event(tall order with Medvedeva, Sotnikova, and Rika there), or come in 2nd with Rika at 3rd while being 10+ points ahead, or come in 2nd with Rika 4th or lower.
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
Continuing my analysis, after Cup of China:

Pairs
Made it to the final :cheer: : Sui/Han
Almost certain to make the final: Duhamel/Radford, Kavaguti/Smirnov
Likely to make the final: Tarasova/Mozorov
Could make the final, depending on tiebreakers but none of them very likely to make it (in order from most to last likely): Stolbova/Kilmov, Yu/Jin, Scimeca/Knerim, Seguin/Bilodeau, Moore-Towers/Marinaro.

Ladies
Almost Certain to make the final: Medvedeva, Tuktamysheva, Asada
Very likely to make the final: Wagner, Gold
Could make the final depending how things go: Hongo
Could make the final, VERY unlikely: Satoko, Radionova

Men
Very likely to make the final (would almost say certain but we are talking about men): Chan, Hanyu, Fernandez
Likely to make the final: Jin
Could make the final: Uno, Aaron
Extreme outside shot: Murakami

Dance
Have made it to the final :cheer: : Chock/Bates
Extremely likely to make final: Weaver/Poje, Shibutanis, Capellini/Lannote
Could make final: Sinasina/Katsalopov, Gillies/Porier, Bobrova/Soloviev
Extreme outside shot: Ilinyk/Zhiganshin
 

kalee

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 13, 2014
After the first 3 GP events, I'd swap Gracie into "almost certain" and Liza to "very likely". Even though Gracie is not 100% clean yet, she didn't fall at SA and was clean enough to reel in the highest FS points we've seen from anyone yet in the GP (even though IMHO that was a tad over scored). If Liza were her usual bulletproof consistent self, Gracie's prospects of winning TEB would be slimmer but at this point given their relative form it's 50-50 between Gracie and Liza.

Otherwise it looks like our final 6 is forming... Am thinking that Adelina's presence at Rostelecom might hurt Elena's GPF chances more than Rika's given that Rika has a silver and may still get through from 4th place if none of the current 3rd place finishers win their 2nd GP (unlikely as Elena and Yuka will be up against Evgenia & Adelina, Satoko against Mao).
 
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