Point situation heading into NHK

Mista Ekko · Nov 21, 2015

I'm just elaborating and putting numbers on what people are already discussing in GPF predictions thread.

--This is while counting in the TEB SP scores as official scoring
--I've factored placings by tie breakers, When needed (TEB) used only SP score \ 2 SP scores and one FS

Ice Dance :

1) Weaver\Poje (30)
2) Capellini\Lanote (28)
3) Chock\Bates (28)
4) Sinitsina\Katsalopov (24)
5) Gilles\Poirier (24)

NHK lineup :

1) Hubbel\Donohue (15)
2) Shibutanis (13)
3) Bobrova\Soloviev (11)
4) Stepanova\Bukin (11)
5) Coomes\Buckland (9)

Men :

1) Fernandez (30)
2) Uno (28)
3) Chan (22)
4) Murakami (22)
6) Yan (20)

NHK lineup :

1) Jin (13)
2) Kovtun (13)
3) Hanyu (13)
5) Hochshtein (9)
6) Menshov (7)

Pairs :

1) Kavaguti\Smirnov (28)
2) Sui\Han (28)
3) Stolbova\Klimov (24)
4) Seguin\Bilodeau (22)
5) Peng\Zhang (20)

NHK lineup :

1) Duhamel\Radford (15)
2) Scimeca\Knierim (13)
3) James\Cipres (13)
4) Yu\Jin (11)

Ladies :

1) Medvedeva (28)
2) Gold (28)
3) Radionova (26)
4) Hongo (20)
5) Tuktamysheva (20)
6) Lipnitskaya (18)

NHK lineup :

1) Wagner (15)
2) Asada (15)
3) Miyahara (11)
4) Pogorilaya (9)

-- After we know more about the qualification process we could calculate what scores would be needed for tie breakers

eta · Nov 22, 2015

Brown withdrew from NHK due to back injury.
Rippon got 4th in COR (Miner got bumped up I think?) so his total is 18.

Florencito · Nov 22, 2015

Both Rika and Liza have 20 points (silver + 5th, 13+7). I think Rika has the edge, right?

Mista Ekko · Nov 22, 2015

Thanks guys

mirai4life · Nov 22, 2015

If Satoko 4th, Anna 3rd ... Satoko will have 20 and Anna will have 20
If Satoko 3rd the will have 22 and she qualifies.

If both satoko and anna get 20 and both score overall lower than rika's total score, rika will qualify?
NHK is actually a tough field. I think other girls can have a shot at the podium as well.

truthbooth · Nov 22, 2015

mirai4life said:
If Satoko 4th, Anna 3rd ... Satoko will have 20 and Anna will have 20
If Satoko 3rd the will have 22 and she qualifies.

If both satoko and anna get 20 and both score overall lower than rika's total score, rika will qualify?
NHK is actually a tough field. I think other girls can have a shot at the podium as well.

If Hongo, Miyahara, and Pogorilaya all have 20, Hongo will get the nod because her highest placement is second at CoC (to Anna's potential 3rd at NHK and Miyahara's 3rd at SA).

Watermelondrea · Nov 22, 2015

It's impossible to predict who will make the GPF because you already know that Asada and Wagner are in, even with 4th places and they aren't the type of skaters to put themselves in that position, not when it's right in frontt of them...

Not knowing about the TEB skaters makes it worse, but if they decide to duplicate previous GP placements which they will most likely do then GPF is already decided with:

Radionova
Tuktamysheva
Medvedeva
Gold
Wagner
Asada

An absolutely INCREDIBLE lineup.

mirai4life · Nov 23, 2015

AntonioThunderhunter said:
It's impossible to predict who will make the GPF because you already know that Asada and Wagner are in, even with 4th places and they aren't the type of skaters to put themselves in that position, not when it's right in frontt of them...

Not knowing about the TEB skaters makes it worse, but if they decide to duplicate previous GP placements which they will most likely do then GPF is already decided with:

Radionova
Tuktamysheva
Medvedeva
Gold
Wagner
Asada

An absolutely INCREDIBLE lineup.

How will Tuk make it over Rika?

Meoima · Nov 23, 2015

mirai4life said:
How will Tuk make it over Rika?

http://www.rockerskating.com/news/2...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

silverlake22 · Nov 23, 2015

mirai4life said:
If Satoko 4th, Anna 3rd ... Satoko will have 20 and Anna will have 20
If Satoko 3rd the will have 22 and she qualifies.

If both satoko and anna get 20 and both score overall lower than rika's total score, rika will qualify?
NHK is actually a tough field. I think other girls can have a shot at the podium as well.

Basically I think this is how it works. If we assume Mao and Ashley qualify, that leaves one more spot, or maybe two if there is a 7th entry that would be Tuk.

Satoko can make it if the following happen at NHK:

- She wins
- She places 2nd and Anna does not win
- She places 3rd and Anna does not place 1st or 2nd

Anna can make it if the following happens at NHK:

-She wins
-She places 2nd and Satoko does not win

If Satoko is 4th at NHK and Anna is 3rd, they both wind up with 3+4 and will lose the tiebreaker to Rika and Liza. If this happens and a 7th entry is permitted, then Liza and Rika can probably both make it.

momrk · Nov 23, 2015

TEB short programs were used to award placement points- page has been updated; Gracie given 15 for TEB and so forth.

Mista Ekko · Nov 23, 2015

Meoima said:
http://www.rockerskating.com/news/2...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

She would have to be 7th in the standings,
I think it's more likely Miyahara finishes on the Podium at NHK and takes that spot,

I Tuk wants to go she better hope Pogorilaya keeps her down, Because both her and Hongo would win a tie breaker against Pogs if she's Bronze.

cheerknithanson · Nov 23, 2015

Because of the tragic events (of Paris) and the wacky (But fair) way of with the TEB placings which leads to the current standings, Yuzuru will need at the bare minimum a bronze medal in order to 100% qualify for the GPF. Currently Chan is 3rd in the standings with 22 points and one gold medal. There are 2 other skaters that have gotten silver in GP events this session (Yes counting Kovtun cause technically because of the ISU's decision, he "won silver" which means 13 points). Assuming all three of them make th podium, all three of them will need to reach the podium to ensure all of them will make it. Which if that happens, that'll mean that it'll be Russia vs. Canada vs. Japan vs. China vs. Spain. WOW! 5 different countries! I mean hypothetically.

And yes this is me slightly thinking outloud with calculations.

Mista Ekko · Nov 23, 2015

Pairs will likely be this:

Duhamel\Radford
Kavaguti\Smirnov
Sui\Han
Stolbova Klimov
Yu\Jin
Scimeca\Knierim
James Cipres

-Unless J\C finish outside the top 4 in which case S\B will go

-If S\C or Y\J finish off the podium to J\C here than they will not go and there will be only 6

jax · Nov 23, 2015

Ice Dance :

1) Weaver\Poje (30)
2) Capellini\Lanote (28)
3) Chock\Bates (28)
4) Sinitsina\Katsalopov (24)
5) Gilles\Poirier (24)

NHK lineup :

1) Hubbel\Donohue (15) needs top 4 finish and they are in.
2) Shibutanis (13) need 1st or 2nd. 3rd would go to a tiebreaker
3) Bobrova\Soloviev (11) needs to win or 2nd and will go to tiebreaker
4) Stepanova\Bukin (11) needs 1st to go. if they get 2nd it would go to tiebreaker. (they would have to have a huge PB to beat G&P) TEB*
5) Coomes\Buckland (9) needs a win.
G&P needs the US to go 1-2

Sackie · Nov 24, 2015

So it really looks like G/P will not be making the final this year. It also looks like they may be dropping in worlds rankings too. I can see them being as low as 9th at worlds this year. Maybe going with unusual programs is not the best idea.

Ilvskating · Nov 25, 2015

I agree with the 7 pairs to be in the final. This is the most likely out come.

Mista Ekko said:
Pairs will likely be this:

Duhamel\Radford
Kavaguti\Smirnov
Sui\Han
Stolbova Klimov
Yu\Jin
Scimeca\Knierim
James Cipres

-Unless J\C finish outside the top 4 in which case S\B will go

-If S\C or Y\J finish off the podium to J\C here than they will not go and there will be only 6

CanadianSkaterGuy · Nov 26, 2015

Meoima said:
http://www.rockerskating.com/news/2...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

But if Rika comes 6th, she makes the GPF, and if she comes 7th, then Tukt is 8th and doesn't make the GPF.

Regardless, would be hugely unfair if Rika didn't get to go and Tukt did. Never before has a skater gone to the GPF when they were ranked below somebody who didn't qualify for the final (other than injuries/WD). I know these are weird circumstances, but if Tukt somehow goes, Rika should definitely be going as well.

lauravvv · Nov 26, 2015

jax said:
G&P needs the US to go 1-2

Or they need Hubbell/Donohue to finish 5th (behind S/S, B/S, S/B and C/B). Then Hubbell/Donohue will be out, both Bobrova/Soloviev and Sinitsina/Katsalapov will be in (if Stepanova/Bukin are not 2nd with a higher combined score in both SDs than either of those two teams), and Gilles/Poirier will also be in as the 7th team from TEB.

Point situation heading into NHK

Mista Ekko

eta

Florencito

Mista Ekko

mirai4life

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truthbooth

Watermelondrea

mirai4life

1Lo <

Meoima

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momrk

Mista Ekko

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Mista Ekko

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