I wasn't proposing Polina as a great idea; I merely mentioned that she is still age-eligible.Polina? Never in a million years. Karen being picked over Vivian is what scares me, and I actually love her.
2016 US Nationals Junior Ladies FS
- Thread starter Mrs. P
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I think Emily winning threw things for a bit of a loop, if not for that it would have been easy to send Karen (or Bradie if she placed highly) along with Vivian. While Emily has a lot of lovely qualities she has basically no chance of scoring this high internationally, and with her limited technical arsenal I would be shocked if the US could regain 3 spots for the ladies regardless of who is sent alongside of her. And, nothing against her, but I wouldn't really be comfortable putting my eggs in the basket of an 18 year old that doesn't have all her jumps when there are girls her age and younger that are more complete skaters currently. Had Vivian won this wouldn't be an issue as we have seen she is capable of scoring well compared to her peers from other countries.
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Well, Vivian had to actually skate clean and score at least over 123 points to have a chance of beating Emily. Her scoring potential is good, but there's still the big problem of delivering. And I don't really think TPTB thought she would best Emily at all.
And even without a lutz, if Emily goes clean she can skate circles around a lot of the other junior girls.
And even without a lutz, if Emily goes clean she can skate circles around a lot of the other junior girls.
Emily is pretty good artistically compared to the rest of the junior girls...
As for Junior Worlds, just a thought -- Angela Wang should still be age-eligible although she's at the very top of the age group, and she had great form in the Senior B's -- so in the event that Gracie, Ashley and Courtney Hicks get selected to Worlds, perhaps another way out could be to send Karen Chen and Angela Wang to JW?
And for Vivian -- looking at last year's precedent, the 2 JW competitors were selected from Senior Nats, hopefully next season she will compete in seniors nationally (am in fact surprised that she did not do so this year). She will also be age-eligible for senior international competition, wonder if she has done well enough from JGP to qualify for senior GP berths?
As for Junior Worlds, just a thought -- Angela Wang should still be age-eligible although she's at the very top of the age group, and she had great form in the Senior B's -- so in the event that Gracie, Ashley and Courtney Hicks get selected to Worlds, perhaps another way out could be to send Karen Chen and Angela Wang to JW?
And for Vivian -- looking at last year's precedent, the 2 JW competitors were selected from Senior Nats, hopefully next season she will compete in seniors nationally (am in fact surprised that she did not do so this year). She will also be age-eligible for senior international competition, wonder if she has done well enough from JGP to qualify for senior GP berths?
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Any two skaters they send will have a hard time beating the Russians and the Japanese so they might as well send Emily and Vivian, who will most benefit from the experience.
Did you miss Emily Chan's 3T-3T in the SP? Megan Wessenberg also did a 3T-3T in the SP. Paige Rydberg did a 3T-3T in the FS (though missed a lot of the rest
). Vivian Le can do a 3Z-3T but was MIA in this competition...
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I saw the short, but not one in the FS. I'm sure many are capable of a 3-3, but under pressure, in competition is the only place that it counts.
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I think you need to get the TES minimums at a junior competition. Angela did not compete at any junior events this season so I don't think she is eligible, same goes for Tyler Pierce and Hannah Miller, and Polina Edmunds, they are young enough for JW age wise, but I don't think they can go because they don't have the TES from a junior competition. So I think Bradie Tennell is the only senior lady at US Nationals who is eligible for JW, Amber Glenn would be too, but she withdrew from Nationals. Chen might be eligible but I'm not sure. Her last junior competition was JW last season, so that might be too long ago...
Vivian Le did her 3-3 during the JGP. I chalk up this competition as a bad dad in the office. I'm hoping, if she goes to junior worlds, we'll see it in its glory.
I edited my post to note Paige Rydberg's 3-3 in the FS. Vivian did do a 2A-3T (Megan Wessenberg did as well) so there was some additional difficult combos, if not a 3-3.
Yes, Chen is eligible. The TES window is two years, so her score from JGP/Jr. Worlds would qualify.
Did you miss Emily Chan's 3T-3T in the SP? Megan Wessenberg also did a 3T-3T in the SP. Paige Rydberg did a 3T-3T in the FS (though missed a lot of the rest
Many of Russian and Japanese junior ladies got much harder combos
such as 3Lz-3T, 3F-3T, 3L-3T and some of them even do 3Lz-3L, 3L-3L,
and they perform them pretty consistently.
Also many Korean top juniors can do 3Lz-3T
though unlike Russians and Japanese they do not have a total package, just yet.
I assume Emily Chan could not have top 10 finish if she had competed @Russian or Japanese Junior Nationals,
and looking back, at least Amber and Bradie had better jumping contents.
I wonder what it would be like after GG and Ashley retire.
Among current senior ladies, besides those two,
I think only Polina has a potential to develop into the skater who can have a podium finish @the senior worlds.
And among current juniors, I am sorry to say this but no one, though Vivian's 3Lz is amazing.
How many years ago was it that US had Rachel, Caroline, Mirai and Ashley among Juniors,
and fans predicted that US ladies would dominate the world soon?
USFSA should do something to lift up the jumping ability among Junior ladies,
and it should be immediately.
I wonder what is the cause of this serious decline of jumping ability among US junior ladies.
In the case of Korea, it is obvious.
Yuna inspired so many young girls to try figure skate.
So the lack of a big female star skater in US in last ten years or so caused this decline???
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They've done that in the past as well.
I think they're flexible about whether to send more skaters from junior or senior Nationals, or even occasionally skaters who didn't make it to Nationals but impressed in summer competitions, depending on the strength of the age-eligible field in each group. So it will vary from year to year.
What they've done starting this year is to give bonuses to non-downgraded triples at novice and intermediate levels, and double axels at intermediate and juvenile.
That gives the girls incentive to work on these jumps and to get experience competing them in the programs sooner in their development, as soon as they are consistently able to come close to rotating them, even if they're not quite consistent at landing them cleanly.
So you should be seeing more jump content in juniors in a year or two as the girls who benefitted from these bonuses move up to juniors.
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I think not just that, but I don't think FS is as popular in the US as it is in Japan or Russia. Today, just the first day of the Russian Junior Championships and the stands were packed almost full from the beginning to the end of the day, and it was just the junior champs, it isn't even like in the US that you can watch the seniors trainig now and then and catch them in the venue during the competition. Did you see how many people were watching the junior ladies in these last days? Not to talk about the other levels. I'm sure this plays a big impact on these kids willing to train and compete.
Yes, I remember I have read that before somewhere in other thread.
But I think it would take a few more years to see any effect by it among juniors,
and to compete with Russians and Japanese, they need not only just trying them but landing them consistently.
We will see.
Well, Russian junior ladies are pretty exciting.
I have no hesitation to chose if I have a choice to go to Russian Junior ladies or US junior ladies.
Even I have to take a time to consider if I have a choice to go to US senior ladies or Russian junior ladies.
It is like a Chicken/egg argument, impact of a big star, popularity and young skaters' motivation to train.
They all intertwine and affect each other.
We all know the popularity of ladies always leads the entire popularity of this sports.
And with GG and Ashley, who are the GPS final qualifiers,
the popularity of the sports in US has declined significantly in recent years,
I do not mean it is their faults, of course not.
Without them, and not any significant next stars in our sight or big potentials in junior level,
we might see the further decline of it, which is a very scary thought
since the popularity in US has been always a big factor and the driving force of the development of this sports.
And as a fan, it is not very exciting to watch the domination by only a few countries.
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Another problem with sending Karen is that if she doesn't medal (and she won't), it may hurt her international reputation. She had a relatively solid showing on the GP and did well in the Senior B's. I think a poor result at Jr Worlds would do more harm than good in positioning her for future success as a senior.
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People are lamenting the lack of 3/3s displayed in the LP but what about the fact that only 2 skaters attempted a triple Lutz in the top 6? To me, that's even more disconcerting. Maybe they're building them up slower these days and are focusing on their basics (speed, ice coverage, and power) because that's one of the biggest and most rewarded aspects being rewarded in the senior level these days.
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Yeah but I wouldn't expect so many of them to be worried about edge problems and URs. Some of them are pretty up in age where you'd expect them to at least attempt a Lutz, especially in comparison to the Russian and Japanese juniors.
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