Predictions for Russian JGP team 2016-17

Russian Fed should most definitely name Shipilevaya/Smirnov as sub for the 7th event since they don't have any backup event yet.

hanca said:

I didn't want to imply that I believe that Lozko is better than Gubanova. I think potentially either of them can beat the other one, depending on how they skate. Until last season Gubanova was clearly better and Lozko was an average skater, but last season Lozko stepped up and Gubanova started struggling, so now it can be either of them on the top. What I meant when I said that Lozko should make sure she wins, Russians can't give every skater two spots. Even if Mikhailova and Guliakova don't get any spot, there is still eight or nine skaters that will share the remaining 13 spots. So the strategy probably will be to give them one spot each and then the winners will get second spot. Lozko is booked for her second event, but if Gubanova beats her, I wouldn't be surprised if they sent Gubanova instead of Lozko.

Click to expand...

I cannot say I fully agree with you logic. The ultimate task is to have "Russia only" JGPF. Then it's about placements and scores. If Lozko is second but with 180+ score and a good promise to do better it would be strange not to give her a spot at Mordovia. She will compete there with Yuna S who is beatable if she has not improved since the last year. Then there are unproven yet Nugumanova and Konstantinova who struggles by rumours. In such a field getting the first place is possible - then it's a sure JGPF. But even the second place will likely get her there. I cannot remember cases when 2+2 was not enough. Of course, if she is second now but with the score lower than 180 it will be a hard decision to bet on her being at least second in Saransk. And if she or Nastya somehow fall below silver I don't think they will have another chance.

JGP France
Men: Roman SAVOSIN (1st), Ilia SKIRDA (2nd)
Ladies: Alina ZAGITOVA (1st), Anna TARUSINA (WD)
Ice dance: Sofia POLISHCHUK / Alexander VAKHNOV (3rd), Sofia SHEVCHENKO / Igor EREMENKO (5th)

JGP Czech
Men: Dmitri ALIEV (1st), Roman SAVOSIN (3rd)
Ladies: Anastasiia GUBANOVA (1st), Alisa LOZKO (3rd)
Pairs: Amina ATAKHANOVA / Ilia SPIRIDONOV (2nd), Anastasia POLUIANOVA / Maksim SELKIN (4th), Kseniia AKHANTEVA / Valerii KOLESOV (7th),
Ice dance: Arina USHAKOVA / Maxim NEKRASOV (3rd), Evgeniia LOPAREVA / Alexey KARPUSHOV (4th),

JGP Japan
Men: Alexey EROKHOV (3rd), Artem KOVALEV (6th)
Ladies: Sofia SAMODUROVA (4th), Alisa FEDICHKINA (6th)
Ice dance: Anastasia SHPILEVAYA / Grigory SMIRNOV (2nd) ,Polina IVANENKO / Daniil KARPOV (5th),

Current assignments

JGP Russia
Men: Petr GUMENNIK (1st event), Georgy KUNITSA (1st), Alexander SAMARIN (1st)
Ladies: Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA (1st), Elizaveta NUGUMANOVA (1st), Polina TSURSKAYA (1st)
Pairs: Aleksandra BOIKOVA / Dmitrii KOZLOVSKII (1st), Ekaterina BORISOVA / Dmitry SOPOT (1st), Anastasia MISHINA / Vladislav MIRZOEV (1st)
Ice dance: Eva KUTS / Dmitrii MIKHAILOV (1st), Alla LOBODA / Pavel DROZD (1st), Sofia SHEVCHENKO / Igor EREMENKO (2nd)

JGP Slovenia
Men: Dmitri ALIEV (2nd), Ilia SKIRDA (2nd)
Ladies: Alisa LOZKO (2nd), Alina ZAGITOVA (2nd)
Ice dance: Sofia POLISHCHUK / Alexander VAKHNOV (2nd), Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN (1st)

JGP Estonia
Men: Petr GUMENNIK (2nd), Georgy KUNITSA (2nd)
Ladies: Elizaveta NUGUMANOVA (2nd), Polina TSURSKAYA (2nd)
Pairs: Amina ATAKHANOVA / Ilia SPIRIDONOV (2nd), Ekaterina BORISOVA / Dmitry SOPOT (2nd), Alina USTIMKINA / Nikita VOLODIN (1st)
Ice dance: Alla LOBODA / Pavel DROZD (2nd), Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN (2nd)

JGP Germany
Men: Alexey EROKHOV (2nd), Alexander SAMARIN (2nd)
Ladies: Anastasiia GUBANOVA (2nd), Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA (2nd)
Pairs: Anastasia MISHINA / Vladislav MIRZOEV (2nd), Anastasia POLUIANOVA / Maksim SELKIN (2nd), Alina USTIMKINA / Nikita VOLODIN (2nd)
Ice dance: Anastasia SHPILEVAYA / Grigory SMIRNOV (2nd), Arina USHAKOVA / Maxim NEKRASOV (2nd)

Russian Fed has done a pretty good job with the assingments this season. The only thing they really messed up was the pairs' assignments for JGP Russia where they really should have named atleast 5 pairs.

So far the boys have done extremely well...I wish all of them could make the final although I know it's impossible.

No second event for Sofia ... :sad21:
I think she more chances than Alisa Lozko to medal but maybe they're protecting Zagitova and making sure she gets a medal here to seal the JGPF ?

The Finn said:

The only thing they really messed up was the pairs' assignments for JGP Russia where they really should have named atleast 5 pairs.

Click to expand...

You know how people read rules. I guess RusFed just don't know about this exception in rules about pairs at host JPG. And as typical for host junior events put only 3 pairs.

[email protected] said:

I cannot say I fully agree with you logic. The ultimate task is to have "Russia only" JGPF. Then it's about placements and scores. If Lozko is second but with 180+ score and a good promise to do better it would be strange not to give her a spot at Mordovia. She will compete there with Yuna S who is beatable if she has not improved since the last year. Then there are unproven yet Nugumanova and Konstantinova who struggles by rumours. In such a field getting the first place is possible - then it's a sure JGPF. But even the second place will likely get her there. I cannot remember cases when 2+2 was not enough. Of course, if she is second now but with the score lower than 180 it will be a hard decision to bet on her being at least second in Saransk. And if she or Nastya somehow fall below silver I don't think they will have another chance.

Click to expand...

Well, of course you can't understand the logic. Lozko is not second with 180 plus score. She is third with 162 score, whereas Samodurova is fourt with 180 score. In my view Samodurova deserves the second spot more than Lozko. Lozko has no chance at all to get to JGPF because no matter what her second event would be, she would go against Tsurskaya, or Zagitova, or Nugumanova. She has no chance of beating them. So they could give Samodurova give the second event because at least she scored nearly 20 points higher than Lozko.

The Finn said:

JGP France
Men: Roman SAVOSIN (1st), Ilia SKIRDA (2nd)
Ladies: Alina ZAGITOVA (1st), Anna TARUSINA (WD)
Ice dance: Sofia POLISHCHUK / Alexander VAKHNOV (3rd), Sofia SHEVCHENKO / Igor EREMENKO (5th)

JGP Czech
Men: Dmitri ALIEV (1st), Roman SAVOSIN (3rd)
Ladies: Anastasiia GUBANOVA (1st), Alisa LOZKO (3rd)
Pairs: Amina ATAKHANOVA / Ilia SPIRIDONOV (2nd), Anastasia POLUIANOVA / Maksim SELKIN (4th), Kseniia AKHANTEVA / Valerii KOLESOV (7th),
Ice dance: Arina USHAKOVA / Maxim NEKRASOV (3rd), Evgeniia LOPAREVA / Alexey KARPUSHOV (4th),

JGP Japan
Men: Alexey EROKHOV (3rd), Artem KOVALEV (6th)
Ladies: Sofia SAMODUROVA (4th), Alisa FEDICHKINA (6th)
Ice dance: Anastasia SHPILEVAYA / Grigory SMIRNOV (2nd) ,Polina IVANENKO / Daniil KARPOV (5th),

Current assignments

JGP Russia
Men: Petr GUMENNIK (1st event), Georgy KUNITSA (1st), Alexander SAMARIN (1st)
Ladies: Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA (1st), Elizaveta NUGUMANOVA (1st), Polina TSURSKAYA (1st)
Pairs: Aleksandra BOIKOVA / Dmitrii KOZLOVSKII (1st), Ekaterina BORISOVA / Dmitry SOPOT (1st), Anastasia MISHINA / Vladislav MIRZOEV (1st)
Ice dance: Eva KUTS / Dmitrii MIKHAILOV (1st), Alla LOBODA / Pavel DROZD (1st), Sofia SHEVCHENKO / Igor EREMENKO (2nd)

JGP Slovenia
Men: Dmitri ALIEV (2nd), Ilia SKIRDA (2nd)
Ladies: Alisa LOZKO (2nd), Alina ZAGITOVA (2nd)
Ice dance: Sofia POLISHCHUK / Alexander VAKHNOV (2nd), Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN (1st)

JGP Estonia
Men: Petr GUMENNIK (2nd), Georgy KUNITSA (2nd)
Ladies: Elizaveta NUGUMANOVA (2nd), Polina TSURSKAYA (2nd)
Pairs: Amina ATAKHANOVA / Ilia SPIRIDONOV (2nd), Ekaterina BORISOVA / Dmitry SOPOT (2nd), Alina USTIMKINA / Nikita VOLODIN (1st)
Ice dance: Alla LOBODA / Pavel DROZD (2nd), Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN (2nd)

JGP Germany
Men: Alexey EROKHOV (2nd), Alexander SAMARIN (2nd)
Ladies: Anastasiia GUBANOVA (2nd), Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA (2nd)
Pairs: Anastasia MISHINA / Vladislav MIRZOEV (2nd), Anastasia POLUIANOVA / Maksim SELKIN (2nd), Alina USTIMKINA / Nikita VOLODIN (2nd)
Ice dance: Anastasia SHPILEVAYA / Grigory SMIRNOV (2nd), Arina USHAKOVA / Maxim NEKRASOV (2nd)

Russian Fed has done a pretty good job with the assingments this season. The only thing they really messed up was the pairs' assignments for JGP Russia where they really should have named atleast 5 pairs.

Click to expand...

I do think there is a reason why they haven't done so. Maybe they were not allowed?

hanca said:

Well, of course you can't understand the logic. Lozko is not second with 180 plus score. She is third with 162 score, whereas Samodurova is fourt with 180 score. In my view Samodurova deserves the second spot more than Lozko. Lozko has no chance at all to get to JGPF because no matter what her second event would be, she would go against Tsurskaya, or Zagitova, or Nugumanova. She has no chance of beating them. So they could give Samodurova give the second event because at least she scored nearly 20 points higher than Lozko.

Click to expand...

Lozko will get URs again in her next event while Sofia on a worse case will be just get dinged for Flutz, but on a good day she can win silver or bronze there in Slovenia. she was so undermarked in PCS in Japan.

hanca said:

Well, of course you can't understand the logic. Lozko is not second with 180 plus score. She is third with 162 score, whereas Samodurova is fourt with 180 score. In my view Samodurova deserves the second spot more than Lozko. Lozko has no chance at all to get to JGPF because no matter what her second event would be, she would go against Tsurskaya, or Zagitova, or Nugumanova. She has no chance of beating them. So they could give Samodurova give the second event because at least she scored nearly 20 points higher than Lozko.

Click to expand...

You are very right now that you know the past.

puremagic said:

You know how people read rules. I guess RusFed just don't know about this exception in rules about pairs at host JPG. And as typical for host junior events put only 3 pairs.

Click to expand...

That is what I have thought all along and this kind of confirms it.

In the upcoming Grand Prix will be attended by athletes from 32 countries, including Russia, which is the organizer of Rights has the right to declare the maximum number of skaters - three numbers in each form.

Click to expand...

http://www.fsrussia.ru/news/2335-uchastniki-etapa-gran-pri-kubok-mordovii-prileteli-v-saransk.html

They just didn't know that for the host country three is not the maximum number for pairs.

MsLiinaLii said:

I do think there is a reason why they haven't done so. Maybe they were not allowed?

Click to expand...

No, that is not it. They most likely didn't know that they could have named more pairs to their home event.

Page 4.

f) Organizing ISU Member:
For the Organizing ISU Member there is no limitation in the number of entries in its Pairs’ event.

Click to expand...

http://static.isu.org/media/342929/jgp2016-17_announcement.pdf

Is Samodurova not getting any more assignments?

Can we conclude that Fedichkina's season is now over?

lavoix said:

Is Samodurova not getting any more assignments?

Can we conclude that Fedichkina's season is now over?

Click to expand...

I am hoping that Samodurova will get Lozko's second event. She did score at her event nearly 20 points more than Lozko.

Feditchkina's season does not have to be over. Through Russian cups she can qualify to senior nationals (she has already spot in Russian juniors nationals because she had JGP event). At Russian junior nationals she can get spot for junior worlds. Look at Mishina/ Mirzoev, last season they messed up their only JGP event and yet it turned out a break out season for them. Loads of internal competitions to persuade their federation that the JGP was a bad day, posting very decent scores at all of them, winning junior nationals, then medalling at junior worlds.

hanca said:

I am hoping that Samodurova will get Lozko's second event. She did score at her event nearly 20 points more than Lozko.

Feditchkina's season does not have to be over. Through Russian cups she can qualify to senior nationals (she has already spot in Russian juniors nationals because she had JGP event). At Russian junior nationals she can get spot for junior worlds. Look at Mishina/ Mirzoev, last season they messed up their only JGP event and yet it turned out a break out season for them. Loads of internal competitions to persuade their federation that the JGP was a bad day, posting very decent scores at all of them, winning junior nationals, then medalling at junior worlds.

Click to expand...

how about Samodurova getting Fedichkina's second assignment ?
I think Lozko is listed to protect Zagitova, Lozko has lower score so Zagitova can seal the JGPF.

hanca said:

I am hoping that Samodurova will get Lozko's second event. She did score at her event nearly 20 points more than Lozko.

Feditchkina's season does not have to be over. Through Russian cups she can qualify to senior nationals (she has already spot in Russian juniors nationals because she had JGP event). At Russian junior nationals she can get spot for junior worlds. Look at Mishina/ Mirzoev, last season they messed up their only JGP event and yet it turned out a break out season for them. Loads of internal competitions to persuade their federation that the JGP was a bad day, posting very decent scores at all of them, winning junior nationals, then medalling at junior worlds.

Click to expand...

I like positive posts!

sneakers said:

how about Samodurova getting Fedichkina's second assignment ?
I think Lozko is listed to protect Zagitova, Lozko has lower score so Zagitova can seal the JGPF.

Click to expand...

There is no second spot for Feditchkina, so they can't give it to Samodurova. There is only three events left, that's six spots. Which means second spot for Tsurskaya, Zagitova, Gubanova, Nugimanova, Konstantinova and Lozko. As far as I am concerned, Lozko is the weakest one (unless Nugumanova or Konstantinova has a meltdown tomorrow), so if Samodurova gets a spot, Lozko would be the most likely to lose hers.

hanca said:

There is no second spot for Feditchkina, so they can't give it to Samodurova. There is only three events left, that's six spots. Which means second spot for Tsurskaya, Zagitova, Gubanova, Nugimanova, Konstantinova and Lozko. As far as I am concerned, Lozko is the weakest one (unless Nugumanova or Konstantinova has a meltdown tomorrow), so if Samodurova gets a spot, Lozko would be the most likely to lose hers.

Click to expand...

umm,, Nugumanova is current 4th in SP dinged with URs like Lozko's....
She will likely finished 4th overall tommorow, with her FS score of around 101-104 dinged with Underrotations, that's almost the same score as Lozko's....

so either Nugumanova or Lozko should not get second assignment.

sneakers said:

umm,, Nugumanova is current 4th in SP dinged with URs like Lozko's....
She will likely finished 4th overall tommorow, with her FS score of around 101-104 dinged with Underrotations, that's almost the same score as Lozko's....

so either Nugumanova or Lozko should not get second assignment.

Click to expand...

Or both..

sneakers said:

umm,, Nugumanova is current 4th in SP dinged with URs like Lozko's....
She will likely finished 4th overall tommorow, with her FS score of around 101-104 dinged with Underrotations, that's almost the same score as Lozko's....

so either Nugumanova or Lozko should not get second assignment.

Click to expand...

Maybe it would be a decent thing to let her finish her first JGP before you remove the second spot from her.