Predictions for Russian JGP team 2016-17 | Page 5 | Golden Skate

Predictions for Russian JGP team 2016-17

sneakers

Match Penalty
Joined
Dec 24, 2015
Maybe it would be a decent thing to let her finish her first JGP before you remove the second spot from her.

lets just say skaters with underrotations will have a very difficult time getting even a chance to podium.... :slink:
 

The Finn

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2015
lets just say skaters with underrotations will have a very difficult time getting even a chance to podium.... :slink:

Both Honda and Higuchi had two clear URs at their FS in WJC last year. Although, somehow none of these URs were marked at the protocols.
 

The Finn

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2015
Current assignments

JGP Russia
Men: Petr GUMENNIK (1st event), Georgy KUNITSA (1st), Alexander SAMARIN (1st)
Ladies: Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA (1st), Elizaveta NUGUMANOVA (1st), Polina TSURSKAYA (1st)
Pairs: Aleksandra BOIKOVA / Dmitrii KOZLOVSKII (1st), Ekaterina BORISOVA / Dmitry SOPOT (1st), Anastasia MISHINA / Vladislav MIRZOEV (1st)
Ice dance: Eva KUTS / Dmitrii MIKHAILOV (1st), Alla LOBODA / Pavel DROZD (1st), Sofia SHEVCHENKO / Igor EREMENKO (2nd)

JGP Slovenia
Men: Dmitri ALIEV (2nd), Ilia SKIRDA (2nd)
Ladies: Alisa LOZKO (2nd), Alina ZAGITOVA (2nd)
Ice dance: Sofia POLISHCHUK / Alexander VAKHNOV (2nd), Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN (1st)

JGP Estonia
Men: Petr GUMENNIK (2nd), Georgy KUNITSA (2nd)
Ladies: Elizaveta NUGUMANOVA (2nd), Polina TSURSKAYA (2nd)
Pairs: Amina ATAKHANOVA / Ilia SPIRIDONOV (2nd), Ekaterina BORISOVA / Dmitry SOPOT (2nd), Alina USTIMKINA / Nikita VOLODIN (1st)
Ice dance: Alla LOBODA / Pavel DROZD (2nd), Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN (2nd)

JGP Germany
Men: Alexey EROKHOV (2nd), Alexander SAMARIN (2nd)
Ladies: Anastasiia GUBANOVA (2nd), Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA (2nd)
Pairs: Anastasia MISHINA / Vladislav MIRZOEV (2nd), Anastasia POLUIANOVA / Maksim SELKIN (2nd), Alina USTIMKINA / Nikita VOLODIN (2nd)
Ice dance: Anastasia SHPILEVAYA / Grigory SMIRNOV (2nd), Arina USHAKOVA / Maxim NEKRASOV (2nd)

Kunitsa been injured means that Artem Kovalev will most likely get his 2nd event.

Obviously Boikova/Kozlovskii will replace Poluianova/Selkin at the 7th event. Personally I think Russia should move Mishna/Mirzoev to the 6th event because 7th event is too stacked with TOP pairs at the moment. By moving Mishina/Mirzoev they would give Boikova/Kozlovskii and also Ustimkina/Volodin a better chance to make it to the final. And also by moving Borisova/Sopot to the last event would give them a bit more time to train properly.
 

puremagic

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Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 14, 2016
I only hope that Gubanova will find the way to be more stable. She is like angel on the ice. Always enjoy to see how she is skating and always painful/worrisome how she is jumping. :(
 

sneakers

Match Penalty
Joined
Dec 24, 2015
I only hope that Gubanova will find the way to be more stable. She is like angel on the ice. Always enjoy to see how she is skating and always painful/worrisome how she is jumping. :(

imo its because of her tehcnique, especially on her Lutzes its too hammer and pitch forward like.
 

puremagic

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Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 14, 2016
will they replace Lozko next week with Sofia ? really bad strategy if they put in Lozko

Hey, mr. twix, I guess we know who will compete :biggrin:

Alina Zagitova, Anastasia Gubanova, Polina Tsurskaya, Stanislava Konstantinova - no doubt.

4 spots of 6.

Alisa Lozko (3rd), Elizaveta Nugumanova (3rd), Sonya Samodurova (4th).

One spot will get Alisa or Liza.

But remains one - and question is the worthiness to put Samodurova with 4th place instead these two girls with 3rd place. Considering her jumps which much better. 4+2, 4+3, or 3+2, 3+3, or 3+4 - very hard math. All depends on the Japanese girls results. :coffee:
 

sneakers

Match Penalty
Joined
Dec 24, 2015
Hey, mr. twix, I guess we know who will compete :biggrin:

Alina Zagitova, Anastasia Gubanova, Polina Tsurskaya, Stanislava Konstantinova - no doubt.

4 spots of 6.

Alisa Lozko (3rd), Elizaveta Nugumanova (3rd), Sonya Samodurova (4th).

One spot will get Alisa or Liza.

But remains one - and question is the worthiness to put Samodurova with 4th place instead these two girls with 3rd place. Considering her jumps which much better. 4+2, 4+3, or 3+2, 3+3, or 3+4 - very hard math. All depends on the Japanese girls results. :coffee:

its not about placements but the scoring
Sofia scored higher with her 4th place finish than Lozko and Nugumanova's bronzes, plus she wont be dinged with multiple underrotations.
 

puremagic

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Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 14, 2016
its not about placements but the scoring
Sofia scored higher with her 4th place finish than Lozko and Nugumanova's bronzes, plus she wont be dinged with multiple underrotations.

Scoring? I thought the selection principles is:
1) points by places 2) scoring
Alisa and Liza has 11 points. Sonya only 9. Even 1-2 points could help.
 

[email protected]

Medalist
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Mar 26, 2014
At this point there are 10 medalists for 5 JGPF left. So it makes no sense to bring Samodurova in. Lozko has no chances. And Nugumanova as well. They have to win in the fields where their wins are unlikely.
Very high chances Zagitova, Gubanova, and Tsurskaya. They are fine with bronze at the next competition. Then comes more difficult case of Konstantinova. If the Japanese do not change the layout and Kihira is first or second in Lyubliana it makes sense to move Gubanova out of Dresden and hope that Konstantinova wins over Shiraiwa once again. Then either Honda or Kihira will be out and we will have 4 girls in the final.

Alas, realistically no hopes for Nugumanova and Lozko. The key thing is to get Konstantinova there. Samodurova is out of question. Even 1+4 is not enough.
 
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bosskil

Match Penalty
Joined
Aug 17, 2016
Then comes more difficult case of Konstantinova. If the Japanese do not change the layout and Kihira is first or second in Lyubliana it makes sense to move Gubanova out of Dresden and hope that Konstantinova wins over Shiraiwa once again. Then either Honda or Kihira will be out and we will have 4 girls in the final.
Sneaky! :biggrin:

What JpnFeds should do immediately is to move Honda or Kihira to Germany - there is no sense in having them competing against each other in Lyublyana. The loser of this duel will be at the mercy of Russians.

Overall, at this moment with high probability Sakamoto, Zagitova, Tsurskaya, Gubanova are in the final and the triangle of Honda, Kihira and Konstantinova fight for last two spots. Anybody else is practically out.
 
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hanca

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 23, 2008
At this point there are 10 medalists for 5 JGPF left. So it makes no sense to bring Samodurova in. Lozko has no chances. And Nugumanova as well. They have to win in the fields where their wins are unlikely.
Very high chances Zagitova, Gubanova, and Tsurskaya. They are fine with bronze at the next competition. Then comes more difficult case of Konstantinova. If the Japanese do not change the layout and Kihira is first or second in Lyubliana it makes sense to move Gubanova out of Dresden and hope that Konstantinova wins over Shiraiwa once again. Then either Honda or Kihira will be out and we will have 4 girls in the final.

Alas, realistically no hopes for Nugumanova and Lozko. The key thing is to get Konstantinova there. Samodurova is out of question. Even 1+4 is not enough.
I think you are wrong with that bit. At every event there will be two Japanese girls. Let's hope that Zagitova/GUbanova/Tsurskaya manage to beat them, but the role of the second Russian lady is also important. If you send Lozko, with her score of 160 she will very likely place below those Japanese ladies. If you send Nugumanova, there is slight chance that she may beat some of them, but if you send Samodurova, the chances are pretty decent that with score 180 she may beat them. Samodurova placing second would mean that the Japanese ladies at that event would be third and fourt, which means reducing their chance of JGPF and increasing chances for another Russian girl, even if Samodurova herself would not get in. As you said, neither Lozko, nor Nugumanova or Samodurova will get to JGPF, so it does have a sense to send there a high scoring second ladies to keep others from JGPF and help Russian team.
 

The Finn

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2015
I think you are wrong with that bit. At every event there will be two Japanese girls. Let's hope that Zagitova/GUbanova/Tsurskaya manage to beat them, but the role of the second Russian lady is also important. If you send Lozko, with her score of 160 she will very likely place below those Japanese ladies. If you send Nugumanova, there is slight chance that she may beat some of them, but if you send Samodurova, the chances are pretty decent that with score 180 she may beat them. Samodurova placing second would mean that the Japanese ladies at that event would be third and fourt, which means reducing their chance of JGPF and increasing chances for another Russian girl, even if Samodurova herself would not get in. As you said, neither Lozko, nor Nugumanova or Samodurova will get to JGPF, so it does have a sense to send there a high scoring second ladies to keep others from JGPF and help Russian team.

Yes, but there is also a possibility that Sofia would beat the other Russian girl which is something that is not desired at this point. Sofia was underscored at Japan, or the japanese were overscored, in any case she can score really high and it is not out of the question that she could beat Alina, Nastia or Polina if placed at the same event. Russia really should play it safe here and not replace Alisa L or Liza with Sofia.

What they really should consider is replacing Nastia with Liza at the last event so that it would be more likely that Stasya would win that event but this is only needed if Alina doesn't beat either of the japanese girls at JGP Slovenia.
 

hanca

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 23, 2008
How likely is that Sofia would beat Zagitova, who received a score of 190? Not very high. And even if that happened, Zagitova can afford to be second (and even third). So Samodurova's presence would not jeopardise Zagitova's chances of JGPF.
 

[email protected]

Medalist
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Mar 26, 2014
Yes, but there is also a possibility that Sofia would beat the other Russian girl which is something that is not desired at this point. Sofia was underscored at Japan, or the japanese were overscored, in any case she can score really high and it is not out of the question that she could beat Alina, Nastia or Polina if placed at the same event. Russia really should play it safe here and not replace Alisa L or Liza with Sofia.

What they really should consider is replacing Nastia with Liza at the last event so that it would be more likely that Stasya would win that event but this is only needed if Alina doesn't beat either of the japanese girls at JGP Slovenia.

Absolutely agree. We don't know the future. But if we talk likelihoods it's very very unlikely that both Honda and Kihira are out. Then Japan has already guaranteed 2 spots. And the task is not to give out the third one. So far there are 3 Russian girls with golds. Hence, we are talking about just 1 spot left. If nothing changes in the Japanese entry list it is a no brainer to replace Gubanova and Nugumanova. Gubanova does not need the win. Both Konstantinova and Nugumanova do. Then in Tallinn there will be Konstantinova, Nugumanova, Shiraiwa. If someone of the Russians wins she is in the final. Because even Nugumanova with 3+1 will beat either Honda or Kihira with 2+2. So bringing Samodurova will solve nothing - only put extra pressure on Zagitova.

Once again, we need to wait for the Japanese's decision on Lyubliana.
 

[email protected]

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Sneaky! :biggrin:

What JpnFeds should do immediately is to move Honda or Kihira to Germany - there is no sense in having them competing against each other in Lyublyana. The loser of this duel will be at the mercy of Russians.

Overall, at this moment with high probability Sakamoto, Zagitova, Tsurskaya, Gubanova are in the final and the triangle of Honda, Kihira and Konstantinova fight for last two spots. Anybody else is practically out.

I reconsidered: if the Japanese stay as of today and Nugumanova switches with Gubanova the key triangle will be in Dresden: Konstantinova, Nugumanova, Shiraiwa. If Nugumanova wins she will have 3+1 and even if Konstantinova is second she will be lower with 2+2. Of course, if Konstantinova wins she will be in with 2+1. The key will be to not let Shiraiwa win which is of course a challenge but not as big as skating against Honda or Kihira.
 

bosskil

Match Penalty
Joined
Aug 17, 2016
I reconsidered: if the Japanese stay as of today and Nugumanova switches with Gubanova the key triangle will be in Dresden: Konstantinova, Nugumanova, Shiraiwa. If Nugumanova wins she will have 3+1 and even if Konstantinova is second she will be lower with 2+2. Of course, if Konstantinova wins she will be in with 2+1. The key will be to not let Shiraiwa win which is of course a challenge but not as big as skating against Honda or Kihira.
In that case, Shiraiwa's win would be a "team win": she'd be out anyway, but would give loser of Honda/Kihira duel from Lyblyana the last spot (assuming 2-2 Honda/Kihira holds the tie-breaker over Russian 2-2 girl, which is very likely).

Still I expect JpnFed to make a move and quickly - Lyublyana starts in 3 days. :hpull:
 

kalee

On the Ice
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Nov 13, 2014
In that case, Shiraiwa's win would be a "team win": she'd be out anyway, but would give loser of Honda/Kihira duel from Lyblyana the last spot (assuming 2-2 Honda/Kihira holds the tie-breaker over Russian 2-2 girl, which is very likely).

Not necessarily. There is one scenario where Yuna actually might still have a chance.
Ljubljana: Marin #1 (2+1 = 28 pts), Alina #2 (1+2 = 28 pts), Rika #3 (2+3 = 24 pts)
Tallinn: Polina #1 (1+1 = 30 pts), Mako #2 (3+2 = 24 pts), Liza N. #3 (3+3 = 22 pts)
Dresden: Yuna #1 (4+1 = 24 pts), Nastia #2 (1+2 = 28 pts), Stasya #3 (2+3 = 24 pts)

If nobody got 26 points and Yuna wins in Dresden, she can be top amongst several girls sitting on 24 points (due to the win) and the finalists would be:
- Polina (30 pts)
- Nastia (28 pts)
- Alina (28 pts)
- Marin (28 pts)
- Kaori (28 pts)
- Yuna (24 pts)

Supposing the Russian assignments stay the same and Japan swaps Rika with Yuna Aoki, then the scenario would be:
Ljubljana: Alina-Marin-Alisa /Eun Soo or Marin-Alina-Alisa / Eun Soo would get Marin in
Tallinn: Not a factor unless Mako beats Polina for the win -- but most of us would be banking on Polina's FS getting back closer to her usual standards
Dresden: Rika-Nastia-Yuna / Stasya or Nastia-Rika-Yuna / Stasya would get Rika in, but Yuna's chances would be 100% hosed
 
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bosskil

Match Penalty
Joined
Aug 17, 2016
Yep, there are definitely some slim opportunities for other skaters and options for feds to change things. I think, we should wait for Lyublyana outcomes to have near crystal clear picture.
 
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