Who will make it to the JGP final?

It is never too early to start speculating about who might make it to the final.

Here is the current standings.
Ladies: http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2016/jgpsladies.htm
Men: http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2016/jgpsmen.htm
Pairs: http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2016/jgpspairs.htm
Ice dance: http://www.isuresults.com/events/jgp2016/jgpsdance.htm

Obviously those who won their 1st event have an excellent chance to make it to the final.

Things look pretty good for Savosin who was assigned to 1st and 2nd JGP event. 3rd placement at the JGP Czech would surely be good enough for him to make it to the final. Startlist of JGP Czech doesn't look too bad for Savosin. Aliev and Pavlov will be there and also a couple of potential skaters but all in all it looks like a good event for Savosin.

At the moment Zagitova has been assigned to the 5th event but I don't think she will skate there because Polina is assigned there. I don't think Russian Fed will put them at the same event. If Polina is fit she will skate at the 5th and 7th event and Alina will most likely be moved to some other event. Anyway, where ever she will skate I am sure she will make it to the final.

Abachkina/Thauron has been assigned to JGP Japan which doesn't look too bad for them. Shpilevaya/Smirnov and Parsons/Parsons are there but 3rd placement would surely be good enough for them to make it to the final.

Ladies:
Tsurskaya, Honda, Zagitova, Fedichkina, Nugumanova, Gubanova

Dance: Abachkina/Thauron, Macarp (I call M/C Macarp, BTW ), Double-Parsons, Shpirnov (Sphilevaya/Smirnov), Loboda/Drozd, and either CarPon (Carriera/Ponomarenko) or one of the young Russian teams

Ladies: Zagitova, Tsurskaya, Gubanova, Nugumanova, Honda, Fedichkina?

Dance: A/T, M/C, P/P, L/D, S/S, C/P?

Pairs: D/B, B/S, A/S, O/B, M/M, U/V?

invisiblespiral said:

Ladies: Zagitova, Tsurskaya, Gubanova, Nugumanova, Honda, Fedichkina?

Dance: A/T, M/C, P/P, L/D, S/S, C/P?

Pairs: D/B, B/S, A/S, O/B, M/M, U/V?

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I would be totally okey with these finalist. I would be especially happy if those would be the ladies' finalist.

Ladies: Zagitova, Tsurskaya, Gubanova, Nugumanova, Honda, Fedichkina

Men: Savosin, Aliev, Hwan Cha, Nadeau, Zhou, Samarin

Dance: Abachkina/Thauron, Mcnamara/Carpenter, Parsons/Parsons, Loboda/Drozd, Shpilevaya/Smirnov, Carreira/Ponomarenko

Pairs: Duskova/Bidar, Mishina/Mirzoev, Atahanova/Spiridonov, Borisova/Sopot, Oganesian/Bardei, Ustimkina/Volodin

Men: Aliev, Savosin, Samarin, Nadeau, Zhou and Hwan Cha. Possible surprise finalists: Skirda or Erokhov.

Ladies: Zagitova, Tsurskaya, Gubanova, Nugumanova, Fedichkina and Lozko/Konstantinova/Samodurova/Honda.

Pairs: Duskova/Bidar, Mishina/Mirzoev, Atakhanova/Spiridonov, Borisova/Sopot, Ustimkina/Volodin and Oganesian/Bardei. Although it looks like both Ustimkina/Volodin and Oganesian/Bardei will skate at the last two events which are crowded with top pairs and it might be unlikely that they both would make it to the final. Possible surprise finalist: Boikova/Kozlovskii.

Ice Dance: Abachkina/Thauron, Shpilevaya/Smirnov, Loboda/Drozd, McNamara/Carpenter, Parsons/Parsons and Skoptcova/Aleshin or Carreira/Ponomarenko.

Men : Aliev, Samarin, Nadeau, Zhou, Cha, Torgashev (a mix of contenders and personal favorites)

A week ago I would have had Tomoki Hiwatashi on this list...
Goes to show that there is no such thing as a "sure bet" in figure skating, and with junior men even more so.
I'm secretly hoping Aliev, Pavlov and Krasnozhon kick Savosin off the podium at Czech Skate, just to make things more unpredictable.

At the moment Zagitova has been assigned to the 5th event but I don't think she will skate there because Polina is assigned there. I don't think Russian Fed will put them at the same event. If Polina is fit she will skate at the 5th and 7th event and Alina will most likely be moved to some other event. Anyway, where ever she will skate I am sure she will make it to the final.

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I think Alina Zagitova will compete with Polina Tsurskaya at the JGP Slovenia as she's already assigned to the competition. The Ljubljana Cup will be a high level competition because Japan's Marin Honda will be there, too. Probably these three ladies will dominate the podium and they will all make it to the JGP Final. Korea's Eun Soo Lim is also assigned to the Ljubljana Cup and I predict that she will finish 4th. Other candidates for the JGP Final are Russia's Fedichkina and Japan's Shiraiwa and there's one more spot left. I have seen Elizaveta Nugumanova performing in ice shows and Nugumanova could be as good as Eun Soo Lim but she's still an unknown quality.

Marin, Alina, Nastia, Stasya, Liza II and Eun Soo Lim.

I doubt Polina will participate in JGP after reading Eteri's words.

Men: Savosin for sure, even if he doesn't skate great I don't really see him off the podium, unless something crazy happens. Aliev, Zhou will also likely make it, as well as Samarin. I'm not sure about the other 2 spots- Nadeau and Sadovsky have had spotty results last season, so I'm not sure I trust them to skate decently at both jgps. I'm more inclined to go with Torgashev and Cha who seem quite level-headed in competition, though the Canadians arguably have slightly higher scoring potential. Skirda could play spoiler with his silver right now.

Things looks pretty good for Savosin indeed. In theory he could still end up in 7th on the standings but that is highly unlikely. Once Dima (or someone else) wins both events Savosin will secure his place at the final. The only way Savosin might not make it is if there will be 7 different event winners and they all have similar placement, 1st and 2nd or 1st and 3rd like Savosin.

Rika Kihira
Zagitova
Nugumanova
Gubanova
Marin
Eun Soo (i can hope)

Aliev
Savosin
Nadeau
Sadovsky
Zhou
Cha
Yes I'm hoping for two Canadians

I started to write scenarios and realized how difficult it is – we don’t know now even who will be where. It is a tactical game even more difficult than the last season when Japan played it quite well unlike Russia and was close to get 4+2 instead of 3+3 but then Higuchi lost to Honda letting Fedichkina to squeeze in.

At this point,
Zagitova – almost certain
Gubanova – almost certain
Kihira – very likely
Honda – very likely
Tsurskaya – very likely if she has fully recovered - unlikely if not
Nugumanova – very likely if she wins over Shiraiwa in Russia, quite unlikely if not
Fedichkina – quite likely if she fully recovered, very unlikely if not
Shiraiwa – quite likely if she wins over Nugumanova in Russia, very unlikely if not
Konstantinova, Samodurova, another newbie from Japan – if some miracle happens on their side and at the same time complete bombing among the above mentioned competition.

Then Russia has a wild card Panenkova who just showed 2 crystal clean programs in the local competition with 0+7 jump layout in FP and with the number of rippons higher than that of Zagitova. Some people say she has a better pcs potential than Zagitova. So if everyone else but Zagitova and Gubanova bomb their first skate Panenkova will be the last argument. But so far depending on Tsurskaya’s shape my forecast is: Zagitova, Gubanova, Tsurskaya, Nugumanova, Honda, Kihira or Shiraiwa (Fedichkina) instead of Tsurskaya. Then we shall have 4+2 or 3+3. Well, may be Vivian Le will be a “spoiler” to the battle between Russia and Japan. But she has to be much better now than she was last season.

Edit: just watched a new SP by Vivian Le. She skates lovely, connects to the music very well. At the same time, it was just 3Lz-2T and her lutz does not look as monstrous as the year ago. So far I would not name her a contender for the final.

[email protected] said:

Kihira – very likely
Honda – very likely

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I wouldn't be surprised if one of these two would end up 4th at the JGP Slovenia. Assuming both will skate there and assuming Russia doesn't change their skaters.

The ones likely to make it:
Sakamoto (2nd-1st)
Zagitova (1st)
Gubanova (1st)
Kihira (2nd)
Honda (2nd)
......................................
The ones to look for in the next events:
Tsurskaya
Nugumanova
Shiraiwa
Konstantinova
Le
......................................
May have little chance but still possible:
Lozko (3rd)
Nitaya (3rd)
Hamashita (3rd)

Hope they switch either Marin or Rika with Yuna Aoki so that the two don't spoil each other's chances at JGPF.
Before the season, I'd thought a Russian sweep would be on the cards but am pleasantly surprised at how Kaori Sakamoto, Rika Kihira, Mako Yamashita and Rin Nitaya have upped their game.

Kaori SAKAMOTO is already in. Who could have predicted this? It is very likely to be 3 Japanese vs. 3 Russians in the lady's final.

Or possibly 4 Russians & 2 Japanese...
- Kaori is definitely in.
- Alina and Nastia are likely to be in (need 3rd or higher at 2nd assignment).
- Polina is likely to be in (assuming she is fully fit, she should be able to win both assignments).
- Either Marin or Rika should get in, but unlikely to be both -- would require a 1-2 between them and nobody else getting 2-2 with higher scores.
- Either Liza, Stasya or Yuna Shiraiwa could get in, with Liza having an advantage.
- Mako Yamashita or Eun Soo Lim may have an outside chance if any of the above girls bomb.

It would be smart of the Japanese fed to move Rika Kihira or Marin Honda from Slovenia to Germany - the field is much weaker there. If one of them finishes third (a real possibility with Zagitova in the field) - they could be out of the final if Konstantinova is 2nd or higher in Germany (again, a real possibility given the weaker Japanese entries there).

The final at this point is likely to be Sakamoto (already in), Zagitova, Gubanova, Tsurskaya and two of Kihira, Honda and Konstantinova.

Ladies only

By now everyone has shown up. But Panenkova (may be a secret weapon?)

What we have so far:

Sakamoto 1+2 in
Zagitova 1
Gubanova 1
Tsurskaya 1
Kihira 2 185,51
Honda 2 184,11
Konstantinova 2 175,20
Yamashita 3 182,43
Nitaya 3 175,01
Nugumanova 3 173,12
Lozko 3 162,28

With 5 JGF spots left for 10 medalists (6 Russians and 4 Japanese) I just see no place for the 4th place (alas, Samodurova with 180,69 and Shiraiwa). OK what can happen?

Lyublyana: Honda, Kihira, Zagitova, Lozko. Lozko needs a win - very unlikely in such a company. Then she will be out. Zagitova will be fine with bronze. Then it gets tricky. The key question is if Kihira is going to do clean 3A. If yes, my bet is Kihira, Honda, Zagitova. If no, then Honda, Zagitova, Kihira. In the first situation Kihira is in. Then Honda with 2+2 is in the waiting list. In the second Kihira with 2+3 will have to wait even harder with not that many chances actually. So, after Lyubluana we will have Zagitova added to Sakomoto and either Kihira or Honda. I see no point to bring in Panenkova instead of Lozko. It would make sense if Kihira melts down. Then Panenkova can kick her out. But she will also put pressure on Zagitova because if Kihira does her 3A and Panenkova surpasses Zagitova then Zagitova will have problems. Also if Kihira melts down with 2+3 and Nugumanova is second in Tallinn her combined score may be higher and she will push Kihira out anyway. Then I think Fed will play it safe - no Panenkova.

Talinn: Tsurskaya, Nugumanova, Yamashita, Nitaya. Tsurskaya is fine with bronze. Everybody else needs to win because they have the first score lower than Kihira and if we have her with 2+3 after Lyublyana she will likely surpass them unless she melts down there completely. But winning over Tsurskaya looks like an impossible task. Then I think no mater who gets silver and bronze they will be likely out. Tsurskaya will be in.

By now we have Sakamoto, Zagitova, Tsurskaya. Kihira is either in (3A and win in Lyublyana) or in the waiting list. If Kihira is in Honda is in the waiting list and vice versa.

Dresden: Gubanova, Konstantinova (Shiraiwa as a spoiler). Gubanova is fine with bronze. So she is likely in. Konstantinova needs to win to be surely in. If she is second she will lose to Honda with 2+2 but will win over Kihira with 2+3. Then for Japan to have 3+3 in the JGPF Kihira should jump 3A and win in Lyublyana plus Honda should perform relatively well to win over Konstantinova with 2+2. I don't believe that Kihira will do 3A. Then the most likely scenario is: Sakamoto, Zagitova, Tsurskaya, Honda, Gubanova, Konstantinova.

But if we have Lyublyana as Kihira, Honda, Zagitova then the best thing for Russia would be to shift Gubanova to Tallinn. Both she and Tsurskaya are fine with bronze. But the task of Konstantinova to win in Dresden will become much easier. If she does she will still be in with 1+3 and Honda will be out with 2+2.

Looks like Russia is in better tactical position than Japan this year. The big move will be if Japan separates Honda and Kihira. Then I will have to reconsider.

Spoilers from America? No, Vivian Le has just one assignment.