Who will make it to the JGP final? | Page 5 | Golden Skate

Who will make it to the JGP final?

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Medalist
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Mar 26, 2014
Unfair low scores???? :confused:

Scoring was quite dubious in fact but Alina made mistakes and should understand that they will cost her dearly. So, she would rather do it Polina T. or Alina Zagitova St. Gervais style in the future.

What is clear now is that Russia will not switch Gubanova and Nugumanova. It means that chances of Honda's getting into final have become quite high. Konstantinova has no leeway for a single mistake and even then the judges may be reluctant to give her more than 187 which is needed to qualify with silver. Hence, she will have to win over Gubanova - quite unlikely unless Nastya collapses. Extra challenges include Yuna S, Vivian Le, and Eunsoo Lim. Out of these three Lim is the biggest threat. So, Konstantinova's win or silver with 187+ is, I think, 25% chance

Nugumanova has to win in Tallinn to stop Honda. I would give 10% chance to this scenario. Then the chance that Marin is out of final is 1 - (1-0,75)*(1-0,1) = 0,325 - about a third.
 

mrrice

Record Breaker
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Jul 9, 2014
Is there a list of those who are already in the Final? Didn't Alexei KRASNOZHON just qualify follow his recent win?
 

sabinfire

Doing the needful
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Nov 30, 2014
Hence, she will have to win over Gubanova - quite unlikely unless Nastya collapses. Extra challenges include Yuna S, Vivian Le, and Eunsoo Lim. Out of these three Lim is the biggest threat. So, Konstantinova's win or silver with 187+ is, I think, 25% chance

I wouldn't underestimate Konstantinova... I don't see Gubanova as a clear leader in this particular field. I think the gold is up for grabs by either of them.
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
I,

Is there a list of those who are already in the Final? Didn't Alexei KRASNOZHON just qualify follow his recent win?
He is currently at the top of the standings. I think only Alexei & Roman are assured of making the final. The last two events in men's will be very exciting!


RESULTS / ENTRIES
-unofficial-


PlNameNationDesignated EventsTotal
Points
Tie breaking
1
FRA
2
CZE
3
JPN
4
RUS
5
SLO
6
EST
7
GER
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th
1Alexei KRASNOZHONUSA1315281434.782287.70148.50147.0846
2Roman SAVOSINRUS1511261405.922265.58134.74140.3448
3Ilia SKIRDARUS1313262398.822273.43138.96125.3946
4Dmitri ALIEVRUS159241433.742278.26155.38155.4846
5Kazuki TOMONOJPN911203414.612279.18145.57135.4344
6Jun Hwan CHAKOR15X151239.471160.13160.1379.3422
7Alexander SAMARINRUS15XS151228.331154.99154.9973.3416
8Kevin AYMOZFRA95144380.702254.47133.32126.2346
9Vincent ZHOUUSA13XS132226.391145.86145.8680.5322
10Andrew TORGASHEVUSA13SX132204.911139.44139.4465.4716
11Matyas BELOHRADSKYCZE211133362.272241.85126.29120.4240
12Ivan PAVLOVUKR94134384.572257.95134.47126.6246
13Joseph PHANCAN57125387.502254.79127.40132.7146
14Alexey EROKHOVRUS11SX113216.911142.01142.0174.9022
15Koshiro SHIMADAJPN11XS113186.181126.86126.8659.32

[
 
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LeeJiHye19

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 17, 2014
i just can't concentrate in Marin's FS because her choice of music. It reminds me of Yuzuru Hanyu so much that I keep seeing his moves hindering me to actually see Honda's program. And I thought R&J in being use so much
 
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ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
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Feb 27, 2012
Is there a list of those who are already in the Final? Didn't Alexei KRASNOZHON just qualify follow his recent win?

You can just look at the ISU standings pages.

He is currently at the top of the standings. I think only Alexei & Roman are assured of making the final. ...

mrrice, in case you don't know, the JGP Standings charts (such as in Doris' post) are very easy to find on the ISU site :).

- Go to www.isu.org (the home page)
- Click on "Single & Pair Skating / Ice Dance"
- Under "Calendar of Events," click on "ISU Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating"
- Click on "Junior Grand Prix Standings Men" or the link for whatever discipline you want

The Standings pages are updated after each JGP.

(Also on the ISU site are Standings pages for the Grand Prix series and for the Challenger series, if you ever are interested in those.)
 
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Chemistry66

Mmmmm, tacos.
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Feb 16, 2010
Pairs is done in Estonia.

Definitely in (since only 4 other teams can beat/tie points)

Atakhanova/Spiridonov, RUS - 22 (13+9, 2nd/4th)
Borisova/Sopot, RUS - 22 (11+11, 3rd/3rd)

On the bubble (since Tallinn demonstrated "ice is slippery")

Alexandrovskaya/Windsor, AUS! - 18 (15+3, 1st/8th)
Liu/Johnson, USA - 18 (11+7, 3rd/5th)

Contenders to come (assigned to Germany)

Mishina/Mirzoev, RUS - 15 (1st, 175.82)
Duskova/Bidar, CZE - 15 (1st, 161.49)
Ustimkina/Volodin - 13 (2nd, 159.94)
Boikova/Kozlovskii - 13 (2nd, 152.57 )

Originally had Poluianova/Selkin listed but apparently Russia did have the sense to give silver-winning Boikova/Kozlovski another spot!
 
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Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
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Dec 27, 2009
Pairs is done in Estonia.

Definitely in (since only 4 other teams can beat/tie points)

Atakhanova/Spiridonov, RUS - 22 (13+9, 2nd/4th)
Borisova/Sopot, RUS - 22 (11+11, 3rd/3rd)

On the bubble (since Tallinn demonstrated "ice is slippery")

Alexandrovskaya/Windsor, AUS! - 18 (15+3, 1st/8th)
Liu/Johnson, USA - 18 (11+7, 3rd/5th)

Contenders to come (assigned to Germany)

Mishina/Mirzoev, RUS - 15 (1st, 175.82)
Duskova/Bidar, CZE - 15 (1st, 161.49)
Ustimkina/Volodin - 13 (2nd, 159.94)
Boikova/Kozlovskii - 13 (2nd, 152.57 )

Originally had Poluianova/Selkin listed but apparently Russia did have the sense to give silver-winning Boikova/Kozlovski another spot!

The move makes sense. But sadly, if all four teams finish 1-4 at the final JGP then the Australians would be out and into the first alternate position.
 

Chemistry66

Mmmmm, tacos.
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Feb 16, 2010
The move makes sense. But sadly, if all four teams finish 1-4 at the final JGP then the Australians would be out and into the first alternate position.

Yeah, the likelihood of the Australian team qualifying is small but given how unexpected the results were in Tallinn, crazy things could still happen.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
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Dec 27, 2009
Yeah, the likelihood of the Australian team qualifying is small but given how unexpected the results were in Tallinn, crazy things could still happen.

Renata OGANESIAN / Mark BARDEI can play spoiler that's for sure.
 

Chemistry66

Mmmmm, tacos.
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Feb 16, 2010
Renata OGANESIAN / Mark BARDEI can play spoiler that's for sure.

Essentially one of the 1st place pairs needs to be 8th with a low score (or 9th or lower) or one of the 2nd place pairs needs to be 6th or lower. Injury/illness withdrawals would also help the Australians but I wouldn't wish that on any team.
 

cathlen

Team Gorgeous Cacti!
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Yeah, I think apart from Czechs and M/M who already have a win, so even 5th place or 6th for that teams means qualifying, the other Russian teams can't be that sure. And ice is really slippery.
 

Chemistry66

Mmmmm, tacos.
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Feb 16, 2010
Ladies is finished in Estonia.

Definitely In

Polina Tsurskaya, RUS - 30 (15+15, 1st/1st, 377.75)
Rika Kihira, JPN - 28 (13+15, 2nd/1st, 379.75)
Kaori Sakamoto, JPN - 28 (13+15, 2nd/1st, 366.67)
Alina Zagitova, RUS - 26 (15+11, 1st/3rd, 371.75)

On The Bubble

Marin Honda, JPN - 26 (13+13, 2nd/2nd, 362.86)
Elizaveta Nugumanova, RUS - 24 (11+13, 3rd/2nd, 361.56)

Marin needs either Gubanova to fall to 4th, or Konstantinova to either get 2nd with a score of <187.66 or fall to 3rd. Or both.
Liza needs both Gubanova to fall to 5th AND Konstantinova to either get 3rd with a score of <186.36 or fall to 3rd. Actually, and none of Shiraiwa/Lim/Aoki to win if the first 2 things happened.

Contenders Still To Go (Assigned to Germany)

Anastasia Gubanova, RUS - 15 (1st, 185.59)
Stanislava Konstantinova, RUS - 13 (2nd, 175.20)

Gubanova is in for sure with any medal. With a 4th, she would require Konstaninova to get no higher than 3rd AND one of the three of Shiraiwa/Lim/Aoki not to win with a massive score (massive enough to overtake Gubanova's current lead over all three.). With a 5th, she's out.

Konstantinova is in for sure with a win. With a silver (assuming a Gubanova gold or bronze), she'd need to score at least 187.67 points to beat Marin in the total score tiebreaker. With a bronze, she'd need to score at least 186.37 to overtake Nugumanova AND have Gubanova fall to 5th AND neither of Shiraiwa/Lim/Aoki win. With a 4th, she's out.

Possible Spoilers (Won't qualify, but could affect others' qualification)

Yuna Shiraiwa, JPN - 9 (4th, 169.67)
Eunsoo Lim, KOR - 9 (4th, 166.91)
Yuna Aoki, JPN - 9 (4th, 155.79)
Vivian Le, USA
 
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I consider Liza N chances as 0, Gubanova's 90%, Honda's 75%, Konstantinova's 35%. It also means 75% chance for 3-3 and 25% for 4-2
 

Chemistry66

Mmmmm, tacos.
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I consider Liza N chances as 0, Gubanova's 90%, Honda's 75%, Konstantinova's 35%. It also means 75% chance for 3-3 and 25% for 4-2

Yeah, Liza's going to be an alternate at best. I was just curious as to the perfect storm of events that would have to occur to get her in.
 

[email protected]

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Yeah, Liza's going to be an alternate at best. I was just curious as to the perfect storm of events that would have to occur to get her in.

Of course, perfect storm can happen like last year Tsurskaya's and Fedichkina's withdrawals during junior worlds. My percentages are if everyone is healthy and competes.
 

puremagic

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Jan 14, 2016
Seems like in pairs we will see the same situation like in 2013 JGPF. There was 5 russian pairs and a chinese pair (which won btw). In Germany will be only three strong team: M/M, D/B, Oganesyan/Bardei. For Ustimkina/Volodin and Boikova/Kozlovsky will be enough take 4-5 places which guarantees them tickets to the final.

What about girls: if Stasya take first place and Nastya take second - they are both will go the final. But I suppose Gubanova will take first place. And Stasya with second place cant make it to the final because her scores at Cup of Mordovia was low and she will lose to Honda by scores anyway.
 
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