JGP Tallinn Cup: Predictions Game Round 6

Men

1) Zhou
2) Samarin
3) Gumennik
4) Sadovsky
5) Maysuradze
6) Park


Ladies

1) Tsurskaya
2) Nitaya
3) Yamashita
4) Nugumanova
5) Hong
6) Froetscher


Pairs

1) Borisova/Sopot
2) Atakhanova/Spiridonov
3) Han/Yang
4) Liu/Johnson
5) Ustimkina/Volodin
6) Walsh/Michaud


Ice Dance

1) Lobda/Drozd
2) Skoptcova/Aleshin
3) Lewis/Bye
4) Rouffanche/Bruìissaud
5) Whitley/Graham
6) Galiyanova/Tang

Men:
1. Vincent Zhou
2. Alexander Samarin
3. Koshiro Shimada
4. Roman Sadovsky
5. Petr Gumennik
6. Irakli Maysuradze

Ladies:
1. Polina Tsurskaya
2. Mako Yamashita
3. Elizaveta Nugumanova
4. Rin Nitaya
5. Tessa Hong
6. Julie Froetscher

Pairs:
1. Amina Atakhanova/Ilia Spiridonov
2. Ekaterina Borisova/Dmitry Sopot
3. Alina Ustimkina/Nikita Volodin
4. Renata Oganesian/Mark Bardei
5. Chelsea Liu/Brian Johnson
6. Yue Han/Yongchao Yang

Ice Dance:
1. Alla Loboda/Pavel Drozd
2. Chloe Lewis/Logan Bye
3. Anastasia Skoptcova/Kirill Aleshin
4. Hannah Whitley/Elliott Graham
5. Julia Warget/Mathieu Couyras
6. Sarah Marine Rouffanche/Geoffrey Brissaud

Ice Dance:

1. Loboda/Drozd
2. Skoptcova/Aleshin
3. Lewis/Bye
4. Whitley/Graham
5. Wagret/Couyras
6. Rouffanche/Bulissaud

Ladies:

1. Tsurskaya
2. Yamashita
3. Nitaya
4. Nugamanova
5. Hong
6. Froetscher

Men:

1. Samarin
2. Zhou
3. Shimada
4. Gumennik
5. Sadovsky
6. Pulkinen

Pairs:

1. Borisova/Sopot
2. Atakhanova/Spiridonov
3. Oganesian/Bardei
4. Ustimkina/Volodin
5. Han/Yang
6. Liu/Johnson

Ladies (last names in caps):
1. Mako YAMASHITA
2. Polina TSURSKAYA
3. Elizaveta NUGUMANOVA
4. Rin NITAYA
5. Tessa HONG
6. ZHENG Lu

You would have thought I had learnt my lesson from the Cup Of Mordovia. But, no. For the second time this season, I am totally disregarding everything and putting Nugumanova ahead of Tsurskaya.

The difference this time is that, when you used her absolute PB from fskate.ru, Liza was actually in second position. So, it did not take quite as much justifying.

The dilemma was over the Japanese girls. Yamashita was 3rd on the absolute PB list. But, I have only ever seen her once, during the Ladies SP at the JGP Yokohama a few weeks ago (I didn’t see the FS). I can only find two scores for her, and JGP Yokohama was the only one at Junior level.

On the other hand, there is no shortage of scores available for Nitaya. I’ve seen her more often, and I like her. However, since her absolute PB is lower (by about 4 points) and older (last season’s Senior Nationals), I have kept her behind Yamashita.

The scores for the next three girls were well spread out, so I didn’t make any changes. There was only 1 point between the absolute PB’s for Harrison and Froetscher, and they were both achieved in February. But I decided to keep Harrison ahead.

There was also just 1 point separating the next 2 girls on the absolute PB list, Kallela and Zheng. But, I kept Kallela ahead because I was so impressed with her at the Cup of Mordovia. Plus, her absolute PB was more recent (again, from February). Although, Zheng’s absolute PB was actually from a Senior GP, so it may not reflect her Junior form.

Pairs was an interesting exercise. Borisova / Sopot were at the top of the absolute PB list by about 3 points. But, given her recent meningitis, and how it was obviously still affecting her at the Cup Of Mordovia, I didn’t put them at the top of my predictions.

Instead I put the couple in second on top. Well, it wasn’t a big ordeal doing this, because I really loved Oganesian / Bardei last season. I kept Atakhanova / Spirodinov in third, as there was a big gap either side of them.

This was when the problems started coming in. There has been lots of partner switching going on in Canada. And one of the couples that has split was Hope McLean / Trennt Michaud, who I really liked last season. Trennt is here with his new partner, Evelyn Walsh. But, Evelyn has no previous Pairs scores on Stats On Ice. Meanwhile, Trennt’s absolute PB with Hope puts him fourth on the list.

Since their absolute PB was only 4 points behind McLean / Michaud, I moved Liu / Johnson up to fourth. I also moved Ustimkina / Volodin up, on the off-chance that they have a higher absolute PB from a competition in Russia that Stats On Ice don’t know about (I don’t know how to look up Pairs or Dance couples on fskate.ru).

So, Walsh / Michaud became my 6th place alternate. Next came the Russian / Australian partnership. And then came another problem.

Giulia Foresti / Leo-Luca Sforza were next on the list. But, they have only just re-united after Leo-Luca went away for 2 years to do Ice Dancing with his sister Sofia. That said, their absolute PB was set on their comeback when they won the Junior competition at the Lombardia Trophy three weeks ago. So, they are not rusty.

However, less than a point behind them are another new couple that came out of all the splits that have happened in Canada. Except, this couple are representing America. Marvaldi / Villeneuve have only done one competition, the Junior competition at the US Classic two weeks ago. And they won it.

Brand new couple, or old couple re-united? I went for experience. (And no, it is not just because I like Leo-Luca’s wife!)

Next on the absolute PB list came both halves of a new American couple, Vanessa Chen and Eric Hartley. So that was handy enough. But after this it became complicated.

Next was Daniel Villeneuve’s former partner, Hannah Dawson. Her absolute PB with Daniel put her 1 point ahead of the absolute PB for the girl from a new Chinese partnership (the guy’s former partnership was listed on Stats On Ice, but didn’t have any scores on it). Then came the German couple, Thomalla / Dunkell, but they were about 20 points behind the Chinese girl’s former partnership. And then came Hannah’s new partner, Christian Reekie. His absolute PB (with Vanessa Chartrand) was nearly 30 points lower than Hannah’s with Daniel.

Given that there were so many question marks here, as well as a big gap between Hartley and the Germans, I decided that the safest thing to do was to put the two new partnerships into this gap, and keep them in the order of the girls’ absolute PB’s.

And after going through all that malarkey, I realised that they were all outside the Top 10 that I was posting!

In case you’re interested, the Spanish were at the bottom.

Right, I’m going to start into the Men now. But, since I will be breaking away to have breakfast, I don’t think I’ll get them finished before the Ladies competition starts. So, I will probably be posting them separately.

Caroliza_fan


JGP TALLINN CUP

Ladies

1. Elizaveta NUGUMANOVA, RUS
2. Polina TSURSKAYA, RUS
3. Mako YAMASHITA, JPN
4. Rin NITAYA, JPN
5. Tessa HONG, USA
6. Fruzsina MEDGYESI, HUN

Just for fun
7. Anita ÖSTLUND, SWE
8. Danielle HARRISON, GBR
9. Julie FROETSCHER, FRA
10. Joanna KALLELA, FIN


Pairs

1. Renata OGANESIAN / Mark BARDEI, UKR
2. Ekaterina BORISOVA / Dmitry SOPOT, RUS
3. Amina ATAKHANOVA / Ilia SPIRIDONOV, RUS
4. Chelsea LIU / Brian JOHNSON, USA
5. Alina USTIMKINA / Nikita VOLODIN, RUS
6. Evelyn WALSH / Trennt MICHAUD, CAN

Just for fun
7. Ekaterina ALEXANDROVSKAYA / Harley WINDSOR, AUS
8. Giulia FORESTI / Leo Luca SFORZA, ITA
9. Gabriella MARVALDI / Daniel VILLENEUVE, USA
10. Vanessa CHEN / Eric HARTLEY, USA

haha idk if my predictions are too late

1. Vincent Zhou
2. Alexander Samarin
3. Koshiro Shimada
4. Roman Sadovsky
5. Petr Gumennik
6. Irakli Maysuradze


1. Amina Atakhanova/Ilia Spiridonov
2. Ekaterina Borisova/Dmitry Sopot
3. Alina Ustimkina/Nikita Volodin
4. Chelsea Liu/Brian Johnson
5. Renata Oganesian/Mark Bardei
6. Yue Han/Yongchao Yang


1. Alla Loboda/Pavel Drozd
2. Chloe Lewis/Logan Bye
3. Anastasia Skoptcova/Kirill Aleshin
4. Hannah Whitley/Elliott Graham
5. Julia Warget/Mathieu Couyras
6. Sarah Marine Rouffanche/Geoffrey Brissaud

Sugarpova said:

haha idk if my predictions are too late

Click to expand...

Ladies are too late, I'm afraid. But the rest are fine.

CaroLiza_fan

thx

Ill delete the ladies

Pairs
1. Amina ATAKHANOVA / Ilia SPIRIDONOV
2. Ekaterina BORISOVA / Dmitry SOPOT
3. Alina USTIMKINA / Nikita VOLODIN
4. Renata OGANESIAN / Mark BARDEI
5. Chelsea LIU / Brian JOHNSON
6. Yue HAN / Yongchao YANG

Dance
1. Alla LOBODA / Pavel DROZD
2. Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN
3. Chloe LEWIS / Logan BYE
4. Hannah WHITLEY / Elliott GRAHAM
5. Julia WAGRET / Mathieu COUYRAS
6. Sarah Marine ROUFFANCHE / Geoffrey BRISSAUD

Men
1. Vincent Zhou
2. Alexander Samarin
3. Koshiro Shimada
4. Roman Sadovsky
5. Petr Gumennik
6. Irakli Maysuradze

Sugarpova said:

thx

Ill delete the ladies

Click to expand...

You didn't actually need to delete them. You could have just left them up for fun just to see how they went.

But, hey! They're gone now. (Whatever you do, DON'T edit them back in, because that will invalidate your other predictions!)

---

I am so sorry. I meant to post these after dinner time, but forgot! :

Good job I remembered and got them in 10 minutes before it started! :agree:

With the Men, the four skaters that had an absolute PB of over 200 points were actually well spread out. So, since I was doing this in a rush, I kept them in that order.

The next 2 guys, Koshiro Shimada and Graham Newberry, were only separated by just over a point. However, Shimada won the Asian Trophy and was 3rd in the French Junior Grand Prix this season, whereas Newberry’s only podium positions the past 3 seasons have been in British competitions. So, I kept them Shimada ahead.

In fact, I bumped Newberry down to 6th position, because the guy that was in 6th, Irakli Maysuradze, has been in better form recently. In fact, he set his absolute PB a few weeks ago at the Cup of Mordovia.

After that, I was unfamiliar with the rest of the guys in the Top 10. So, I left them in position. I was familiar with the guy in 11th (Glebs Basins), but he was nearer the guy in 12th than the guy in 10th!

Caroliza_fan


JGP TALLINN CUP

Men

1. Alexander SAMARIN, RUS
2. Vincent ZHOU, USA
3. Roman SADOVSKY, CAN
4. Petr GUMENNIK, RUS
5. Koshiro SHIMADA, JPN
6. Irakli MAYSURADZE, GEO

Just for fun
7. Graham NEWBERRY, GBR
8. Sunghoon PARK, KOR
9. Camden PULKINEN, USA
10. Aleksandr SELEVKO, EST

Got my times wrong thought it started at 11:45 LOC not 11:15 LOC. And so was taking my time and breaking off to do other things.

With Dance, I got a pleasant surprise. All the couples except one had a profile on Stats On Ice. And for that couple, the guy’s absolute PB from his previous partnership put them at the bottom anyway (the girl is new to Ice Dance).

Getting back to the top, and I was always going to put Loboda / Drodz on top. The question was whether to have Skoptcova / Aleshin in second or Lewis / Bye. But, as it turned out, there was a bigger difference in their absolute PB’s than I was expecting – a full 10 points (both scored during last season’s Junior GP Series). So, it became a Russian 1–2.

The next 2 couples were also well spread out, so they were left as they were. However, then it became interesting, because around 3 points covered the next 4 couples.

Wagret / Couryas and Schwendinger / Wunderlich were particularly close. They were covered by just 0.13 points. The French couple scored their absolute PB most recently, at the Cup of Mordovia a few weeks ago. The Germans scored their absolute PB at the NRW Trophy last November when they finished 3rd. In the same competition, the French couple were 6th. In fact, every competition in which they have both competed, the Germans have finished ahead. So, I switched them around so that the same would happen here.

Caroliza_fan


Ice Dance

1. Alla LOBODA / Pavel DROZD, RUS
2. Anastasia SKOPTCOVA / Kirill ALESHIN, RUS
3. Chloe LEWIS / Logan BYE, USA
4. Sarah Marine ROUFFANCHE / Geoffrey BRISSAUD, FRA
5. Hannah WHITLEY / Elliott GRAHAM, CAN
6. Ria SCHWENDINGER / Valentin WUNDERLICH, GER
7. Julia WAGRET / Mathieu COUYRAS, FRA
8. Rikako FUKASE / Aru TATENO, JPN
9. Emilia KALEHANAVA / Uladzislau PALKHOUSKI, BLR
10. Darya POPOVA / Volodymyr BYELIKOV, UKR

Ekaterina ALEXANDROVSKAYA / Harley WINDSOR

It seems no one included them on their TOP 5 predictions. I did include them as 6th pair but they weren't at my TOP 5.

The Finn said:

Ekaterina ALEXANDROVSKAYA / Harley WINDSOR

It seems no one included them on their TOP 5 predictions. I did include them as 6th pair but they weren't at my TOP 5.

Click to expand...

Yes I had them sixth as well. What a massive upset.

Ladies' scores are done! This was actually a really high-scoring event, and we had some perfect scores!

Gold: The Finn, invisiblespiral, Marin, and PorcoPlane, with 75 points!
Silver: corynna, Nathan13, s_parks, Layback11, silverfoxes, matmuh, sneakers, randomfan, and CaroLiza_Fan, with 65 points!
BronzeL voolfee, Crossover, Lyssa, Florencito, Greta, and kalee, with 55 points!

If you think I screwed up your score, please PM me and I'll fix it.

invisiblespiral said:

Ladies' scores are done! This was actually a really high-scoring event, and we had some perfect scores!

Gold: The Finn, invisiblespiral, Marin, and PorcoPlane, with 75 points!
Silver: corynna, Nathan13, s_parks, Layback11, silverfoxes, matmuh, sneakers, randomfan, and CaroLiza_Fan!
BronzeL voolfee, Crossover, Lyssa, Florencito, Greta, and kalee, with 55 points!

If you think I screwed up your score, please PM me and I'll fix it.

Click to expand...

if i knew what my score is i would have a chance to object

Nathan13 said:

Yes I had them sixth as well. What a massive upset.

Click to expand...

I had them 7th.

Really can't believe it. Haven't seen the routine yet, but I've read karne's PBP, and it sounds like they were absolutely brilliant!

It's always nice to see somebody come under our radars and take us all by surprise.

You know, I'm really glad that I am the one scoring this competition, because it is going to be VERY interesting.

But, with F1, World Superbikes and British Superbikes all on today, it'll be this evening or (more probably) tomorrow morning that I do it.

Looking forward to it!

CaroLiza_fan

Pairs scores will be done this week!

I fell and injured my leg while out dancing this weekend so I'm feeling too lazy to do them right now. But later this week, I promise.

Mens Results

Gold: Layback11 with 65 points
Silver: CaroLiza_fan, sneakers, StitchMonkey, The Finn with 55 points
Bronze: corynna, Greta, ines42575, Lyssa, Marin, PorcoPlane, randomfan, Sugarpova with 45 points

Congratulations!!!

If there are any mistakes, please let me know.

andromache said:

Pairs scores will be done this week!

I fell and injured my leg while out dancing this weekend so I'm feeling too lazy to do them right now. But later this week, I promise.

Click to expand...

Ah, sorry. I got mixed up. I was thinking of an earlier draft of the table where I was doing this week and next week.

That's even better. Because I already have a lot of stuff to do tomorrow morning (I started working on another little project earlier in the week, and would like to get it finished and posted).

Hope you get well soon.

CaroLiza_fan

Ice Dance results are ready
I couldn't post them before because I was in a School Camp with almost half of my class, 140 people in the countryside for 3 days.

Gold Medallists: Crossover and Layback11 with 75 points!!!!

Silver Medallists: corynna, voolfee, The Finn, Nathan13, mom2cavs, Marin, matmuh, PorcoPlane, Lyssa, Florencito, Randomfan, Greta, ines42575, CaroLiza_fan and invisiblespiral with 65 points!!!

Bronze Medallist: sneakers with 60 points!!!

If you find any mystake with your score just let me know