JGP Germany: Predictions Game Round 7

haha same happned with ladies last time never mind

cathlen said:

I'm afraid your Ice Dance predictions are invalid as Short Dance has strated at 10 a.m.

Click to expand...

Just got a PM from the Dance scorer pointing out that the first Warm-up was still on when Sugarpova's predictions were posted.

Since none of the couples had started their routines, he is willing to accept the ice Dance predictions. And, given that is the case, I am inclined to agree.

Sugarpova - you're off the hook this time! Just make sure you get in in time in future.

(Says the guy that hasn't even started his Ladies predictions!)

CaroLiza_fan

CaroLiza_fan said:

Just got a PM from the Dance scorer pointing out that the first Warm-up was still on when Sugarpova's predictions were posted.

Since none of the couples had started their routines, he is willing to accept the ice Dance predictions. And, given that is the case, I am inclined to agree.

Sugarpova - you're off the hook this time! Just make sure you get in in time in future.

(Says the guy that hasn't even started his Ladies predictions!)

CaroLiza_fan

Click to expand...

Um, no? Short Dance is on for almost two hours now and Sugarpova has posted predicitions not an hour ago? Just look at difference between time of your post and Sugarpova post. Sugorpova posted her predictions during second Germans couple routine.

cathlen said:

Um, no? Short Dance is on for almost two hours now and Sugarpova has posted predicitions not an hour ago? Just look at difference between time of your post and Sugarpova post. Sugorpova posted her predictions during second Germans couple routine.

Click to expand...

Oh, sorry. I'm getting my times mixed up. It was 9am it started my time, not 10am.

For some reason, I had it in my head all week that competition today started at 10am. So, that's why I was shocked when Alex D said it was only 90 minutes to the start when he posted at 7:36. And then got confused again when the PM arrived.

Thank goodness you have your head screwed on, because I don't! (Nothing strange there, then! )

And neither does Snow, by the sounds of it...

CaroLiza_fan

CaroLiza_fan said:

Oh, sorry. I'm getting my times mixed up. It was 9am it started my time, not 10am.

Thank goodness you have your head screwed on, because I don't! (Nothing strange there, then! )

And neither does Snow, by the sounds of it...

CaroLiza_fan

Click to expand...

I'm sorry!

CaroLiza_fan said:

Oh, sorry. I'm getting my times mixed up. It was 9am it started my time, not 10am.

Thank goodness you have your head screwed on, because I don't! (Nothing strange there, then! )

And neither does Snow, by the sounds of it...

CaroLiza_fan

Click to expand...

Neither you, nor Snow has same time zone as Germany does, so mistakes may happen. I do, so it's easier for me to see it (during JGP Saransk I was always late with watching cause I kept forgetting about one hour difference...)

EDIT: Okay, I think I know where mistakes come from. On results page it's written UTC + 1, but it's wrong. (Counting from UTC+1 the SD would have started an hour later and so Snow would be right, and Sugarpova predictions could be counted). It's UTC +2 in reality. Doris though has posted time correctly in OP of SD thread. I didin't even checked it before, since I know the time is same as in Poland, but it might have misled Sugarpova and Snow.

EDIT 2: I've written aboit it to ISU on FB, they said they had contacted their provider to fix it

EDIT3: And it's fixed!

No time to do my proper processes for the Ladies. So, no time for any analysis.

I just took 10 names that jumped out at me, and put them in absolute PB order. And then made a couple of changes I always intended to (i.e. moved the Russians to the top, justifying it using their best scores according to fskate.ru).

Sorry

Caroliza_fan


JGP POKAL DER BLAUEN SCHWERTER

Ladies

1. Anastasiia GUBANOVA, RUS
2. Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA, RUS
3. Yuna SHIRAIWA, JPN
4. Diana NIKITINA, LAT
5. Lutricia BOCK, GER
6. Eunsoo LIM, KOR

Just for fun
7. Yuna AOKI, JPN
8. Anastasia GOZHVA, UKR
9. Lea Johanna DASTICH, GER
10. Annika HOCKE, GER

cathlen said:

Neither you, nor Snow has same time zone as Germany does, so mistakes may happen. I do, so it's easier for me to see it (during JGP Saransk I was always late with watching cause I kept forgetting about one hour difference...)

EDIT: Okay, I think I know where mistakes come from. On results page it's written UTC + 1, but it's wrong. (Counting from UTC+1 the SD would have started an hour later and so Snow would be right, and Sugarpova predictions could be counted). It's UTC +2 in reality. Doris though has posted time correctly in OP of SD thread. I didin't even checked it before, since I know the time is same as in Poland, but it might have misled Sugarpova and Snow.

EDIT 2: I've written aboit it to ISU on FB, they said they had contacted their provider to fix it

Click to expand...

Nice theory.

I don't know about anybody else, but I have just realised why I got confused over the start time. And it was my own fault...

Here is the introduction to this thread:

CaroLiza_fan said:

Here is the thread where you can make your predictions for the JGP Pokal der Blauen Schwerter.

Entries/Results Page:
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1617/jgpger2016/


The competitions start on 6[SUP]th[/SUP] October 2016 at 10:00 CEST (09:00 BST / 08:00 GMT) with the Short Dance.

So, the deadline to get your predictions in is 1 hour before that, i.e. 10:00 CEST (09:00 BST / 08:00 GMT)

If you need any help working out what time this is where you are, here is the Time Converter that Mrs. P has been very kindly directing us to the past few years.

Click to expand...

When I pasted the times from the start time sentence to the prediction deadline sentence, I somehow forgot to take an hour off them!

And when I am checking the times for predictions, I always go to the Pridictions Thread OP because it has the time in my time zone.

So, nothing to do with the ISU. It was entirely my own fault.

I will be more careful next time.

Right back to Pairs.

CaroLiza_fan

Pairs. Well, you all know full well that there is no way that I am not putting my World Champion children on the top of the podium. I would be a bad father if I said anybody else would win.

If I am totally honest, I would have liked to have put Oganesian / Bardei into second. But, they didn’t have a great time at the Tallinn Cup. So, since Mishina / Mirzoev were already in second in the absolute PB list, I kept them there. And I also moved Boikova / Kozlovskii above them.

I could have moved them down further, but I really like Renata and Mark, and it pained me enough to take them off the podium. So, I kept Ustimkina / Volodin and Brasseur / Ostiguy in 5th and 6th positions.

Hopefully I won’t need 7th position, but there was a very close fight in terms of absolute PB between Foresti / Sforza, Marvaldi / Villeneuve and Koga / Howe. All of them scored their absolute PB in either August or September. The thing is, I have been a fan of the Italians and the Japanese for a while, whereas I have never seen the new North American partnership. So, I decided to go with who I was familiar with, and pushed the Japanese up a place.

Completing my Top 10 were the other American partnership. Incidentally, next along were 2 new partnerships who competed in Tallinn last week, and who I had no scores to go by when making my predictions for that competition. Han / Yang and Walsh / Michaud. Given how much I liked McLean / Michaud last year, I hope Trennt can climb up the order this week.

My apologies to the Pairs scorer for posting this so late. I hope they don't get cross with me.

Oh, wait. I'm scoring Pairs this week!

Caroliza_fan


JGP POKAL DER BLAUEN SCHWERTER

Pairs

1. Anna DUSKOVA / Martin BIDAR, CZE
2. Anastasia MISHINA / Vladislav MIRZOEV, RUS
3. Aleksandra BOIKOVA / Dmitrii KOZLOVSKII, RUS
4. Renata OGANESIAN / Mark BARDEI, UKR
5. Alina USTIMKINA / Nikita VOLODIN, RUS
6. Justine BRASSEUR / Mathieu OSTIGUY, CAN

Just for fun
7. Giulia FORESTI / Leo Luca SFORZA, ITA
8. Ami KOGA / Spencer Akira HOWE, JPN
9. Gabriella MARVALDI / Daniel VILLENEUVE, USA
10. Nica DIGERNESS / Danny NEUDECKER, USA

hahah guys even if the times were correct I dont consider predictions to be life or death matter so I wouldnt care if its counted or not

UV skating to Mad max always reminding me how I need to watch the movie til the end I never managed to finish it

Men's Results are IN!!! a bit late cause had to rearrange predictions after Erokhov's withdrawal, this was another unpredicable event, bigges surprise was Conrad's silver medal

Gold Medal : Lyssa with 55 points!!!

Silver Medal : The Finn and Greta with 45 points!!:hap57:

Bronze Medal : corynna, s_parks, invisiblespiral, Florencito, sunnystars, randomfan and Sugarpova with 40 points!

Congratulations to everyone

as usual, if you find any mistake please let me know!

its been fun, see you at Senior GP Game!!! :hap85::yay:

Ladies results are up in scoresheet!

GOLD: matmuh, randomfan and sunnystars with perfect score of 75 points! :clapper:
SILVER: Florencito, ines42575, Lyssa, Marin, Nathan13, PorcoPlane, ruiying, s_parks, silverfoxes and Sugarpova with 65 points!
BRONZE: corynna, Crossover, Greta, invisiblespiral, kalee, Latvian, puremagic and voolfee with 55 points! :dance:

There were two users who put predcitions only for podium and so got little points CaroLiza_fan was the only one to put Diana Nikitina in his top 5 and so the only one whose alternative predicition was used and also the only one who used other skater than top 5 skaters in his predicition.

Congrats to all medalists and players!

If you spot any mistake, please let me know

cathlen said:

CaroLiza_fan was the only one to put Diana Nikitina in his top 5 and so the only one whose alternative predicition was used and also the only one who used other skater than top 5 skaters in his predicition.

Click to expand...

Interesting. This was the first time in a long time that my gut feeling formed the foundations of my predictions. Normally I do the scientific stuff first and then put my gut feeling in at the end.

So, although I did not score very well, I am actually pleased with how things went.

It wasn't the choices of skater to put towards the top that let me down; it was the order I put them in.

My only real mistake was putting Anastasia Gozhva in my Top 10. But, that choice was influenced by the fact that I had popped into the Fan Fest forum just before making my predictions, and spotted her name towards the top!

And I am kicking myself that I did not spot that Sarah Tamura was in the entries. Because I would definitely have put her in preference to Gozhva.

One thing I am very pleased with was choosing Lutricia Bock. I had actually missed her on my first go through the entry list! On my first go through, I had only picked out 9 skaters. And I wanted to have a list of 10. So, I had another look through, and spotted Bock. And thought "How did I miss her?!"

So, you can imagine how delighted I was after the SP when she was lying 4[SUP]th[/SUP]. I thought it was an inspired choice!

Just a pity that the FS didn't go as well. Not that 9[SUP]th[/SUP] is to be sniffed at! But, I would have loved it if I had scored points on her.

For the other Saxon skater, Lea Johanna Dastich, it was the opposite story. She was down in 14[SUP]th[/SUP] after the SP, but came back with an impressive 6[SUP]th[/SUP] in the FS.

So, I think the fans in Saxony should be very pleased with how their 2 local skaters got on!

Unfortunately, it did not go quite as well for the Berliner. Annicke Hocke was within 1 place of her overall 13[SUP]th[/SUP] position for the whole competition.

So, although none of them finished in the Top 5, on the whole I am really pleased with my decision to put all the German girls in my Top 10.

GLÜCKWÜNSCHE MÄDCHEN!!!

I was always intending to give my gut feeling more influence in the Senior GP Game, because I am far more familiar with the skaters there. But, I think this exercise shows that it can also work for skaters you have only seen a handful of times.

But I'm still so annoyed that I didn't spot Tamura!

CaroLiza_fan

And now the Pairs results.

When I was pasting the predictions into the algorithm, it seemed like hardly anybody was predicting that my Anna and Martin would win. Nearly everybody was (correctly, as it turned out) going with Mishina / Mirzoev.

But, when I counted them there now, it turned out that as many as 9 out of the 22 players had gone for Dušková / Bidař. So, looks can be deceptive! (I think it was because nearly all the early players to post their predictions went for the Russians, and it was mostly later players that went for the Czechs).

The real spoiler for everybody was Walsh / Michaud finishing in 5[SUP]th[/SUP]. NOBODY included them in their predictions. And it is hardly surprising. For a start, Evelyn is completely new to Pairs this season. Admittedly, Trennt had a VERY good record with his former partner, Hope McLean. But, he only had one previous result with his new partner, and it would only have put them 12[SUP]th[/SUP] on the absolute PB list.

So, 5[SUP]th[/SUP] in only your second competition together is pretty impressive!

Despite this, the majority of players did manage to win a medal!

There were just two players that did not make it onto the podium. StitchMonkey was at the bottom of the pile with 30 points. And the other player to miss out… well, it was me with 40 points! :

So, here are the podium positions:

GOLD with 60 points: corynna, Crossover, invisiblespiral, Lyssa, matmuh, randomfan, The Finn.

SILVER with 55 points: Florencito, Marin, puremagic, sneakers, voolfee.

BRONZE with 50 points: Greta, ines42575, Nathan13, PorcoPlane, ruiying, silverfoxes, Sugarpova, sunnystars.

Congratulations!!!

To find out more, please see the spreadsheet.

CaroLiza_fan

ICE DANCE Results

I'm sorry I'm late this time, but Ice Dance resulats are ready

1st place: sneakers- 75 points! Perfect score :agree:
2nd place: corynna, Greta, ines42575, matmuh, PorcoPlane, The Finn - 70 points. My congratulations with silver medals
3rd place: CaroLiza_fan, Florencito, invisiblespiral, Lyssa, Marin, mom2cavs, Nathan13, sunnystars, voolfee, ruiying - 60 points. Well done, guys. Congrats! :yes2:

Congratulations to the winner and all the medalists. Hopefully you will continue to play and win.

P.S. As usual, if you find any mistakes with your score, don't hesitate to contact me. And thank you for playing.