Who is going to qualify for the GPF?

chuckm · Nov 28, 2016

Here is the whole list:

SENIOR MEN

30 [15,15] 578.36 Javier FERNANDEZ ESP
30 [15,15] 546.67 Patrick CHAN CAN
28 [13,15] 564.53 Yuzuru HANYU JPN
28 [15,13] 564.41 Shoma UNO JPN
22 [09,13] 533.71 Nathan CHEN USA
22 [11,11] 528.96 Adam RIPPON USA

Alternates:
20 [07,13] 523.62 Boyang JIN CHN
20 [09,11] 489.04 Sergei VORONOV RUS
20 [11,09] 485.39 Alexei BYCHENKO ISR

SENIOR LADIES

30 [15,15] 442.30 Evgenia MEDVEDEVA RUS
30 [15,15] 426.07 Anna POGORILAYA RUS
28 [13,15] 401.50 Elena RADIONOVA RUS
26 [13,13] 402.45 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN
24 [13,11] 396.23 Maria SOTSKOVA RUS
24 [11,13] 390.08 Satoko MIYAHARA JPN

Alternates:
20 [15,05] 377.82 Ashley WAGNER USA
20 [09,11] 380.57 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS
20 [11,09] 380.20 Mai MIHARA JPN

SENIOR PAIRS

30 [15,15] 422.86 DUHAMEL / RADFORD CAN
30 [15,15] 418.48 SAVCHENKO / MASSOT FRA
28 [13,15] 405.84 YU / ZHANG CHN
26 [13,13] 394.83 PENG / JIN CHN
24 [11,13] 392.88 TARASOVA / MOROZOV RUS
22 [15,07] 380.68 SEGUIN / BILODEAU CAN

Alternates:
22 [13,09] 390.32 ZABIJAKO / ENBERT RUS
22 [13,09] 380.88 DENNEY / FRAZIER USA
22 [11,11] 381.76 ILIUSHECHKINA / MOSCOVITCH CAN

SENIOR ICE DANCE

30 [15,15] 385.30 VIRTUE / MOIR CAN
30 [15,15] 370.88 SHIBUTANI / SHIBUTANI USA
28 [15,13] 380.16 PAPADAKIS / CIZERON FRA
26 [11,15] 361.45 BOBROVA / SOLOVIEV RUS
26 [13,13] 370.37 CHOCK / BATES USA
26 [13,13] 350.35 HUBBELL / DONOHUE USA

Alternates:
24 [11,13] 360.11 WEAVER / POJE CAN
22 [11,11] 353.35 GILLES / POIRIER CAN
20 [09,11] 360.77 CAPPELLINI / LANOTTE ITA

MsSweetie · Nov 28, 2016

It's bizarre to not see an American lady in the GPF, simply based off at least Ashley's success last year. But the 6 ladies in it definitely deserved their ticket.

This is a must-see for me that weekend. It'll be pj's, snacks, wine, and me possibly screaming at the TV all weekend. :popcorn:

MaiKatze · Nov 28, 2016

To be honest the only thing that is a bit annoying is that we don't get to see how Nathan and Boyang are judged in comparison to one another. So we have to wait for 4CC or Worlds to see this happening. With only six skaters the weaknesses will be more obvious in comparison to the Worlds best. In the singles categories at least, this competition won't be that exciting, in the regard that each of them could get on the podium. Adam Rippon simply doesn't have a chance, and for the audience quads are always nice to look at. I think him and Chen will get 5 and 6, but that depends on Patrick Chan's form. He can end up there too, if he doesn't deliver. Chen could prove to be a spoiler - if Splatfest, Rippon, not so much.

SENIOR LADIES

30 [15,15] 442.30 Evgenia MEDVEDEVA RUS
30 [15,15] 426.07 Anna POGORILAYA RUS
28 [13,15] 401.50 Elena RADIONOVA RUS
26 [13,13] 402.45 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN
24 [13,11] 396.23 Maria SOTSKOVA RUS
24 [11,13] 390.08 Satoko MIYAHARA JPN

This is a bit concerning, too. Even more than Men. Sure, we know anything can happen but looking at these differences in points, Evgenia has it in the bag, if she only shows up. The rest can all have the skate of their lives and forget having a go at that gold.

apgold · Nov 28, 2016

I read in the Alonia injury thread that although she is back on the ice, she is still experiencing some pain so her team will decide by Wed, whether S/M will participate. If they pull out, Z/E will be going instead, giving Russia 2 pairs in the event.

I hope they are able to make it so we can see them compete against D/R - first time since last years' Worlds.

padme21 · Nov 28, 2016

Ice Dance said:
Nathan worked dang hard for that "luck." He wasn't a top seed with his choice of an event or a host spot pick. Nor did he have a top-two National ranking behind him. He traveled for all three of his events this fall: Finlandia, France, Japan. And he had to go into each GP event with a higher internationally ranked U.S. skater competing. He did this the hard way.

Jin should have been competitive at SA. He was doing most of the jumps in practice the day I was there (the quad lutz, but not in combination), though the woman I sat next to said he was missing everything at practice the day before. Maybe jet lag? Anyway, he had the goods to earn his own way into the final. It just didn't happen in the performance.

Thank you Ice Dance!
I know a lot of people are upset that Boyang didn't make the GPF this season but it's not the end of the world for him. He's still got Worlds and maybe 4CC. Nathan earned his spot fair and square! He worked extremely hard. People seem to forget that he missed out on worlds last season due to his hip injury which required surgery. Praying that he stays healthy and injury free. To come back from a season ending injury like that and place silver behind Hanyu is a huge accomplishment! Skating after Hanyu wasn't easy and Nathan delivered. People also seem to forget that this is Nathan's senior debut this season. He just moved up from juniors so I find comparing him to Shoma and Boyang a bit unfair as this is there second year as seniors respectively.

eta · Nov 28, 2016

gsyzf said:
If the countries with big feds have deep fields, the skaters they support are their most all-round/most consistent skaters of their generation in their countries. I don't think they will support their less well-rounded or inconsistent skaters without creating internal conflicts.

Chen has better SS and more ballet training + more refinement than Jin. I do think he should get higher PCS than Jin when they skate equally well or equally messy. Chen's PCS may be a bit generous, but not ridiculously high.

We'll just have to disagree then, because I think Nathan has better SS, and Boyang has better TR and PE. IN varies. CO... I don't even know that that is.

SamuraiKike · Nov 29, 2016

Is Adam now the skater with the longest gap between debuting in the Grand Prix and making the final (9 seasons)?? Better late than never , good for him.

Mrs. P · Nov 29, 2016

SamuraiKike said:
Is Adam now the skater with the longest gap between debuting in the Grand Prix and making the final (9 seasons)?? Better late than never , good for him.

Sergei Voronov, who made final in 2014-2015 matches that figure (9 seasons). He debuted two seasons earlier in 2006-2007.

Among the rest:

Patrick Chan qualified for his first GPF in his second GP season (2007-2008) and has qualified every year he had a full GP season (he was injured in 2009-2010, so pulled out of his first GP and obviously didn't compete in 2014-2015). (8th appearance)
Yuzuru Hanyu made his first GPF in his second season (2011-2012) and has been on it since (6th appearance)
Javier Fernandez made first GPF in his 3rd season (2010-2011) and qualified every year except in 2013-2014 (5th appearance
Shoma Uno is 2 for 2 in making the GPF.
Nathan Chen so far is 1 for 1 in making the GPF. (obviously).

gsyzf · Nov 29, 2016

eta said:
We'll just have to disagree then, because I think Nathan has better SS, and Boyang has better TR and PE. IN varies. CO... I don't even know that that is.

Different people have different performance styles. Some people have a more extroverted style and some have a more introverted style. Neither is better than another. They are just different. If you average 9 judges' taste, you usually don't see a clear preference for any style since each individual's taste is subjective. But SS and refinement is more objective and they require many years of skating and dance training. People who have gone through dance training for many years since young will have better posture and refinement than someone who has very little or no dance training. People who spent a lot of time on polishing their skating skills for many years will have better skating skills than people who spend much less time on SS or who start learning skating at a late age, ceteris paribus. A skater doing more transitions doesn't mean he will get higher PCS, especially when one executes the transitions with average quality. Only exceptional technicians who execute difficult transitions with excellent quality will get higher PCS. The skill sets for SS and TR actually overlap. Skaters who can execute difficult transitions with excellent quality demonstrates excellent skating skills. Skaters with good SS won't get low TR marks either. Skaters who execute more transitions with average quality doesn't demonstrate good SS. The difference in PCS will come down to the difference in SS and the level of refinement (+ reputation & some other political factors).

eta · Nov 29, 2016

gsyzf said:
Different people have different performance styles. Some people have a more extroverted style and some have a more introverted style. Neither is better than another. They are just different. If you average 9 judges' taste, you usually don't see a clear preference for any style since each individual's taste is subjective. But SS and refinement is more objective and they require many years of skating and dance training. People who have gone through dance training for many years since young will have better posture and refinement than someone who has very little or no dance training. People who spent a lot of time on polishing their skating skills for many years will have better skating skills than people who spend much less time on SS or who start learning skating at a late age, ceteris paribus. A skater doing more transitions doesn't mean he will get higher PCS, especially when one executes the transitions with average quality. Only exceptional technicians who execute difficult transitions with excellent quality will get higher PCS. The skill sets for SS and TR actually overlap. Skaters who can execute difficult transitions with excellent quality demonstrates excellent skating skills. Skaters with good SS won't get low TR marks either. Skaters who execute more transitions with average quality doesn't demonstrate good SS. The difference in PCS will come down to the difference in SS and the level of refinement (+ reputation & some other political factors).

Even if they don't to many transitions? Last I recall, stuff like crossovers don't count as transitions.

I agree that good SS while doing transitions = high TR score, average SS while doing transitions = average TR score, but surely little transitions = low score?

SS certainly contributes to the "quality" aspect of TR score, but not necessarily to "difficulty" or "variety" or "continuity."

IN and PE are at most partially about taste. For example with IN, elements done on the beat of the music = higher score, per the rules. And in PE, falls etc. negatively affects movement clarity. Sure the character interpretation can be about taste, I hardly think the judges research the music and costume background to get an idea of what the character should be like...

gsyzf · Nov 30, 2016

eta said:
Even if they don't to many transitions? Last I recall, stuff like crossovers don't count as transitions.

I agree that good SS while doing transitions = high TR score, average SS while doing transitions = average TR score, but surely little transitions = low score?

SS certainly contributes to the "quality" aspect of TR score, but not necessarily to "difficulty" or "variety" or "continuity."

According to the following website,

http://www.isu.org/en/single-and-pair-skating-and-ice-dance/isu-judging-system/introduction

"Transitions which is the variety, difficulty and purposeful use of intricate footwork, positions, movements and holds that link all elements."

The definition of transitions is quite vague. I think it means pretty much anything outside of individual elements.

According to this:

http://static.isu.org/media/1009/program-component-chart_sandp-and-id_08-16.pdf

The bullet points for transitions are:
1. Continuity of movements from one element to another.
2. Variety (including variety of holds in ID)
3. Difficulty
4. Quality

Judges and fans can interpret however they like.

eta · Nov 30, 2016

gsyzf said:
According to the following website,

http://www.isu.org/en/single-and-pair-skating-and-ice-dance/isu-judging-system/introduction

"Transitions which is the variety, difficulty and purposeful use of intricate footwork, positions, movements and holds that link all elements."

The definition of transitions is quite vague. I think it means pretty much anything outside of individual elements.

According to this:

http://static.isu.org/media/1009/program-component-chart_sandp-and-id_08-16.pdf

The bullet points for transitions are:
1. The varied and purposeful use of intricate footwork, positions, movements and holds that link all elements.
2. Continuity of movements from one element to another.
3. Variety (including variety of holds in ID)
4. Difficulty
5. Quality

Judges and fans can interpret however they like.

Yep, variety is certainly tied to amount - a skater can of lots of similar-type transitions, but a small amount of transitions will never have a great variety.

gsyzf · Nov 30, 2016

eta said:
Yep, variety is certainly tied to amount - a skater can of lots of similar-type transitions, but a small amount of transitions will never have a great variety.

The definition allows anything to be counted as transitions. Any upper body movements are counted as transitions too, not just certain type of steps as defined by some fans.

eta · Nov 30, 2016

gsyzf said:
The definition allows anything to be counted as transitions. Any upper body movements are counted as transitions too, not just certain type of steps as defined by some fans.

Well, they have to be "intricate" - some ambiguity, enough room for manipulation...

gsyzf · Nov 30, 2016

eta said:
Well, they have to be "intricate" - some ambiguity, enough room for manipulation...

http://static.isu.org/media/1009/program-component-chart_sandp-and-id_08-16.pdf

The 5 components overlap with each other. The bullet points favor skaters with good SS and refined skaters. For skaters who don't have good SS or refinement, they will need to rely on their tech to pull up their PCS, i.e. executes very (or extremely) difficult tech with outstanding quality to impress the judges and thus pull up their pcs.

eta · Nov 30, 2016

gsyzf said:
http://static.isu.org/media/1009/program-component-chart_sandp-and-id_08-16.pdf

The 5 components overlap with each other. The bullet points favor skaters with good SS and refined skaters. For skaters who don't have good SS or refinement, they will need to rely on their tech to pull up their PCS, i.e. executes very (or extremely) difficult tech with outstanding quality to impress the judges and thus pull up their pcs.

It favors skaters with good SS, on paper. Plus, strictly speaking about the six SS categories on the table, "skater A has better SS than skater B" doesn't mean skater A is better at all six categories than skater B. And not all six categories overlap with the other four PCS areas.

gsyzf · Nov 30, 2016

eta said:
It favors skaters with good SS, on paper. Plus, strictly speaking about the six SS categories on the table, "skater A has better SS than skater B" doesn't mean skater A is better at all six categories than skater B. And not all six categories overlap with the other four PCS areas.

I actually think the last 4 components overlap with each other quite significantly. They are not independent from each other other. SS might be the most independent component from the other 4, but still affects or can be affected by the other 4 categories. Skaters who aren't super-strong in SS can get high marks in the last 4 components if they spend a lot of time refining themselves. (It takes a lot of time though, not just a few weeks or months, usually need many years of dance training.)

SamuraiKike · Nov 30, 2016

Mrs. P said:
Sergei Voronov, who made final in 2014-2015 matches that figure (9 seasons). He debuted two seasons earlier in 2006-2007.

Among the rest:

Patrick Chan qualified for his first GPF in his second GP season (2007-2008) and has qualified every year he had a full GP season (he was injured in 2009-2010, so pulled out of his first GP and obviously didn't compete in 2014-2015). (8th appearance)
Yuzuru Hanyu made his first GPF in his second season (2011-2012) and has been on it since (6th appearance)
Javier Fernandez made first GPF in his 3rd season (2010-2011) and qualified every year except in 2013-2014 (5th appearance
Shoma Uno is 2 for 2 in making the GPF.
Nathan Chen so far is 1 for 1 in making the GPF. (obviously).

Great, thanks so much for the info

Who is going to qualify for the GPF?

chuckm

MsSweetie

MaiKatze

apgold

padme21

eta

SamuraiKike

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

gsyzf

eta

gsyzf

eta

gsyzf

eta

gsyzf

eta

gsyzf

SamuraiKike

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