Who is going to qualify for the GPF?

theskatingbutterfly · Nov 5, 2016

We're half way thru the GP series! Since we've seen nearly everyone, I thought it could be interesting to see who people think will qualify!

For ladies I'm thinking

For sure
Evgenia
Ashley
Anna
Satoko

The last 2 spots are up for grabs:
Elena?
Mai?
Kaetlyn?
Elizaveta?

We have not seen Maria Sotsokova or Wakaba Higuchi, and they both could easily medal at each of their events, and also easily not be on the podium at all. I'm still hoping Mariah will get another assignment so she gets a shot. Courntey Hicks also just won the bronze here in Russia, she could spoil in China (although I feel the field is too deep)

I have not thought much about the other disciplines yet!!

Thoughts??

daphenaxa · Nov 5, 2016

men:

Shoma for sure
then Yuzuru, Patrick and Javier are pretty sure too (they would have to really bomb their second events)

then probably Jason
last idk

ladies Evgenia, Ashley and Anna are pretty locked except major meltdown in their 2nd gp
Elena has a pretty good shot
the rest is very uncertain

dance: C/B with two second places should make it right?
V/M, P/C, S/S are locks for me
I think B/S with a 3rd and a 1st will make it too

pairs: this discipline is a mess

Nathan13 · Nov 5, 2016

I just came here to start this thread but you beat me to it :laugh:

I had predicted before GP season began and I've been editing (heavily) after each competition. So here is what I have after CoR:
Ladies:
Wagner (1-1)
Medvedeva (1-1)
Pogorilaya (1-2)
Miyahara (1-3)
Radionova (2-2)
Sotskova (2-3) or Osmond (2-3)

Men:
Uno* (1-2)
Fernandez (1-1)
Hanyu (1-2)
Chan (1-2)
Chen (2-2)
Brown (2-3) or Boyang (1-5)

Dance:
Shibutani/Shibutani (1-1)
Papdakis/Cizeron (1-1)
Virtue/Moir (1-2)
Bobrova/Soloviev* (1-3)
Chock/Bates* (2-2)
Hubbell/Donohue (2-3) or Gilles and Poirier (2-3)

Pairs:
Duhamel/Radford (1-1)
Savchenko/Massot (1-1)
Yu/Zhang (1-2)
Tarasova/Morozov (2-3)
Iliushechkina/Moscovitch (2-3)
Seguin/Bilodeau (1-5)

Mrs. P · Nov 5, 2016

Here's the order as of right now in Men:
Shoma Uno - 28 (564.41)
Javier Fernandez - 15 (292.98) - TEB
Patrick Chan 15- (266.95) - COC
Jason Brown 13 - (268.38) - NHK
Yuruzu Hanyu 13- (263.06) - NHK
Adam Rippon 11- (261.43) - TEB
---
Alexei Bychenko 11 (255.52) - NHK
Kevin Reynolds 11 (245.06) - No second event
Mikhail KOLYADA 9 (245.30) - NHK
Sergei Voronov 9 (245.28) - COC
Michel Brezina 9 (227.42) - COC
Boyang Jin 7 (245.08) - COC
Max Aaron 7 (238.58) - COC
Daniel Samohin 7 (226.53) - COC

Still to skate: Nathan Chen - TEB and NHK

It's unlikely that Kevin would get a second spot ( even though he probably should have got the TEB spot, but alas, it looks like they're not going to fill it. This opens up the field a little bit.

Shoma already has a spot. Javier look pretty good to make GPF. Yuzuru should win NHK and get in there. Patrick can get in with even a 4th at China, I think.

It's really a fight for two spots:
Likely contenders: Nathan, Jason, Adam, Alexei, Nathan (based on his performances so far) and Boyang (by winning COC).
Dark horses: Mikhail, Sergei and Michel
Outside shot: Max and Daniel

sneakers · Nov 5, 2016

Nathan13 said:
Pairs:
Duhamel/Radford (1-1)
Savchenko/Massot (1-1)
Yu/Zhang (1-2)
Tarasova/Morozov (2-3)
Iliushechkina/Moscovitch (2-3)
Seguin/Bilodeau (1-5)

you forgot Zabijako / Enbert
and the two chinese pairs yet to skate

Nathan13 · Nov 5, 2016

sneakers said:
you forgot Zabijako / Enbert
and the two chinese pairs yet to skate

I have Zabijako and Enbert going fourth at Bombard (behind S/M, T/M, and James and Cipres), so they would be first alternates. I have Peng/Jin going 3rd at both of their events. These are just my projections.

theskatingbutterfly · Nov 5, 2016

Just realized Cup of China is gonna be interesting. We have
Ashley (15 pts)
Kaetlyn (13 pts)
Elena (13 pts)
Mai (11 pts)
Courtney (11 pts)
You add Elizaveta who said she will be trying the 3A here, and if she lands that she could win. Ashley is looking good but can tend to be a little tighter at her 2nd event (especially since it's in Asia). I'm hoping the fact that she is a World Medalist will bring her thru and she won't have a mid season slump like she tends to have. Kaetlyn I think could do the same thing that she did at SC and still score at least 10 points less (and she's inconsistent). Elena is a fighter but has seemed to have grown more, and she also tends to be a little bit shakier in Asia. Mai could easily skate clean and squeak in. Courtney could medal if she's good and the rest of the field mess up.

As for men, I'm just hoping and praying Adam and/or Jason make it. I know it could be easier for Jason, which I'd be happy with. Depending on what Nathan does, I see Adam possibly getting 2nd this weekend in France, but I'm not sure 24 points would get him in?

Dance I have
Chock/Bates
Shibs
Virtue/Moir
Bobrova/Soloviev
Papadakis/Cizeron(spelling?)
Weaver/Poje

Nathan13 · Nov 5, 2016

theskatingbutterfly said:
Just realized Cup of China is gonna be interesting. We have
Ashley (15 pts)
Kaetlyn (13 pts)
Elena (13 pts)
Mai (11 pts)
Courtney (11 pts)
You add Elizaveta who said she will be trying the 3A here, and if she lands that she could win. Ashley is looking good but can tend to be a little tighter at her 2nd event (especially since it's in Asia). I'm hoping the fact that she is a World Medalist will bring her thru and she won't have a mid season slump like she tends to have. Kaetlyn I think could do the same thing that she did at SC and still score at least 10 points less (and she's inconsistent). Elena is a fighter but has seemed to grown more, and she also tends to be a little bit shakier in Asia. Mai could easily skate clean and squeak in. Courtney could medal if she's good and the rest of the field mess up.

CoC is deep, but I still think Ashley has the advantage. Elena's jumps were extremely shaky today; I don't see Kaetlyn doing as well as she did in SC without the home audience and the home advantage (although a second or third could still get her to the final); Liza, even with the 3A, does not have a great FS. We'll see though, I would love to see ladies from USA, Canada, Russia and Japan in the GPF this year.

theskatingbutterfly · Nov 5, 2016

Nathan13 said:
CoC is deep, but I still think Ashley has the advantage. Elena's jumps were extremely shaky today; I don't see Kaetlyn doing as well as she did in SC without the home audience and the home advantage (although a second or third could still get her to the final); Liza, even with the 3A, does not have a great FS. We'll see though, I would love to see ladies from USA, Canada, Russia and Japan in the GPF this year.

I definitely think Ashley has the advantage especially since she's the only one there who won her previous event. I'm just praying hard that she holds it together.

Tolstoj · Nov 5, 2016

I don't think Ashley will win COC.

This is not the kind of event where you can expect huge PCS (they've never given huge PCS even to chinese skaters): of course Ashley will be the favourite because of the silver at worlds and gold at SA, but she has to skate cleanly to win and this is not easy for her. (same thing for Kaetlyn)

Plus she has already a gold medal, so she can reach the final even with a silver or a bronze (last year at NHK she finished fourth)

I think if Liza unleashes her 3A and the rest of the two programs similar to SC, she will win this, otherwise Elena has a shot or even Mai.

theskatingbutterfly · Nov 5, 2016

Tolstoj said:
I don't think Ashley will win COC.

This is not the kind of event where you can expect huge PCS (they've never given huge PCS even to chinese skaters): of course Ashley will be the favourite because of the silver at worlds and gold at SA, but she has to skate cleanly to win and this is not easy for her. (same thing for Kaetlyn)

Plus she has already a gold medal, so she can reach the final even with a silver or a bronze (last year at NHK she finished fourth)

I think if Liza unleashes her 3A and the rest of the two programs similar to SC, she will win this, otherwise Elena has a shot or even Mai.

Eh, I think if she goes even relatively clean she should win. But you're right, unless she messes up and EVERYONE else is nice and clean, she will make the final easily.

Nathan13 · Nov 6, 2016

Actually, upon closer examination, I think Osmond has a better chance of qualifying that I thought. I personally think she has a great chance of beating Radionova. She will need to either beat Sotskova or Wagner for a guaranteed spot. But even with a 3rd she would be in a great position for tiebreakers... If Miyahara gets beat by Pogo at NHK she would have an even better chance... (this probably makes more sense in my head...the bottom line is CoC will answer a lot of questions...)

Sackie · Nov 6, 2016

Very interesting that in Dance the GPF champ from the last 2 years will probably not even make it to the GPF this year!
So much for all those who thought V/M's return would have no effect on W/P's ranking in the world!
I can actually see W/P dropping to 8th in the world this year especially with them not making the GPF they won't be seen as a top team and will be marked accordingly no matter how they skate. Their PCS is already taking a hit compared to the other top teams.

Nathan13 · Nov 6, 2016

Sackie said:
Very interesting that in Dance the GPF champ from the last 2 years will probably not even make it to the GPF this year!
So much for all those who thought V/M's return would have no effect on W/P's ranking in the world!
I can actually see W/P dropping to 8th in the world this year especially with them not making the GPF they won't be seen as a top team and will be marked accordingly no matter how they skate. Their PCS is already taking a hit compared to the other top teams.

I agree, and I (unfortunately) don't see WeaPo beating G/P this year; their programs just aren't going to stick out. To safely make the GPF, they would have to beat the Shibutanis, which would be a shocking upset. There is a slim chance that they could get it with a 2nd behind them, but it would be close, and they would have to win the tiebreakers.

ice coverage · Nov 6, 2016

Sackie said:
Very interesting that in Dance the GPF champ from the last 2 years will probably not even make it to the GPF this year!
So much for all those who thought V/M's return would have no effect on W/P's ranking in the world!
I can actually see W/P dropping to 8th in the world this year especially with them not making the GPF they won't be seen as a top team and will be marked accordingly no matter how they skate. Their PCS is already taking a hit compared to the other top teams.

Huh?? I don't see how V/M's return can be blamed for W/P placing third at Rostelecom.

And if W/P had placed first or second at Rostelecom, they would be in much better position to qualify for the GPF.
I hope that they do qualify for the GPF.
But if they do not, it would have nothing to do with V/M. (Other than that V/M themselves hopefully will earn/fill one of the six available GPF slots.)

Sackie · Nov 6, 2016

It has been discussed before that being your Countries # 1 ranked team does make a difference in how you are ranked in the world. W/P went from being the top CAN team to being at least # 2 and maybe even # 3! Thus it means lower PCS! It doesn't seem to make sense but that is how it works. And in regards to W/P they have a similar classical style to V/M where G/P have a very unique style that sets them apart.

ice coverage · Nov 6, 2016

Sackie said:
It has been discussed before that being your Countries # 1 ranked team does make a difference in how you are ranked in the world. W/P went from being the top CAN team to being at least # 2 and maybe even # 3! Thus it means lower PCS! It doesn't seem to make sense but that is how it works. And in regards to W/P they have a similar classical style to V/M where G/P have a very unique style that sets them apart.

If you are replying to me:

I simply do not buy that W/P's marks at Rostelecom were lower b/c of V/M.

A widespread opinion (going into the GP season) has been that V/M are not a sure thing to be #1 in Canada -- with both W/P and G/P giving them a run for their money.

W/P could have helped themselves by showing up at a Challenger with guns blazing and blowing away the field there.
For whatever reason, they chose not to compete at a Challenger before the GP season.

Rissa · Nov 6, 2016

Tolstoj said:
I don't think Ashley will win COC.

This is not the kind of event where you can expect huge PCS (they've never given huge PCS even to chinese skaters): of course Ashley will be the favourite because of the silver at worlds and gold at SA, but she has to skate cleanly to win and this is not easy for her. (same thing for Kaetlyn)

Plus she has already a gold medal, so she can reach the final even with a silver or a bronze (last year at NHK she finished fourth)

I think if Liza unleashes her 3A and the rest of the two programs similar to SC, she will win this, otherwise Elena has a shot or even Mai.

theskatingbutterfly said:
Eh, I think if she goes even relatively clean she should win. But you're right, unless she messes up and EVERYONE else is nice and clean, she will make the final easily.

I agree with the latter. Ashley is not a lock, but she looks like the best bet. After the successful SA she's still riding the wave of the World's Silver Medalist, and seems in a good shape. Her PCS won't be as boosted as at SA, but neither will Katelyn's or Tuk's. And Tuk seems far from her best. I think Ashley's biggest competition at CoC will be Radio but if Ashley doesn't make any major mistakes she could beat Radio.

theskatingbutterfly · Nov 6, 2016

Moria Polonius said:
I agree with the latter. Ashley is not a lock, but she looks like the best bet. After the successful SA she's still riding the wave of the World's Silver Medalist, and seems in a good shape. Her PCS won't be as boosted as at SA, but neither will Katelyn's or Tuk's. And Tuk seems far from her best. I think Ashley's biggest competition at CoC will be Radio but if Ashley doesn't make any major mistakes she could beat Radio.

My only fear is that she WILL make mistakes. I want to trust that she has figured out the mental game but we will see. Asia can be difficult because I think she takes a while to adjust to the time zone. But hopefully with this new confidence she has she'll be fine. I guess time will tell, but I'm still nervous for her. If she skates clean, she'll win.. but that's a big if. But I also don't see many of the other skaters skating clean, so as long as she gets the job done, she should be fine.

Rissa · Nov 7, 2016

^^^

I agree with everything, it's an if, but the new confidence might help.

Personally, I like her best out of all gold contenders, so I wish her luck !

Who is going to qualify for the GPF?

theskatingbutterfly

daphenaxa

Nathan13

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

sneakers

Match Penalty

Nathan13

theskatingbutterfly

Nathan13

theskatingbutterfly

Tolstoj

theskatingbutterfly

Nathan13

Sackie

Nathan13

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