Who is going to qualify for the GPF?

eta said:

Now that 4/6 GPs are done...


Men
#1 Shoma qualified (28)
#2 Javi qualified (30)
#3 For CoC I think Chan and Boyang will be 1st and 2nd - either way Chan will qualify (30 or 28)
#4 Yuzu will likely win NHK and qualify (28)
#5 For NHK I think Brown and Chen will be 2nd and 3rd - either way Brown will qualify (26 or 24)

Assuimg #3 #4 #5 actually happen:
If Boyang wins CoC he will qualify (22, winning tiebreakers against other 22s)
If Boyang doesn't win CoC and Chen gets 2nd at NHK then he will qualify (22, winning tiebreakers against other 22s)

So my prediction: Shoma (confirmed), Javi (confirmed), Chan, Yuzu, Brown, Boyang


Ladies
I don't really follow the ladies much so my guess/hope: Medvedeva (confirmed), Radionova, Wagner, Satoko, Wakaba, Pogorilaya


Pairs
#1 S/M qualified (30)
#2 T/M qualified (24)
#3 Y/Z will likely win CoC (28)
#4 D/R will likely win NHK (30)
#5 A somewhat wild guess, but I think P/J will place 2nd at both CoC and NHK (26)
#6 S/B will qualify (22, winning tiebreakers against other 22s) if K/S does not win CoC and I/M are not at least 2nd at CoC - the latter definitely possible, I have no idea how P/J are doing and nobody seem to know how K/S are regarding injuries...


Dance
I don't follow dance at all, but I hope P/C and Shibs qualify~

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For men:
Adam is still in the mix for that last spot as well; if Boyang doesn't win CoC and Nathan finishes 3rd or lower at NHK, Adam should be good to go. All of those are possible, but Nathan isn't going to let go of that spot without a fight.

For ladies:
Medvedeva is currently the only qualifier. CoC will answer a lot of questions. Ashley would probably be fine with a 4th or higher, Osmond possibly could get by with a 3rd or higher, same with Radionova; Miyahara and Pogorilaya will probably be 1st or second at NHK, so Pogo is almost definitely in. I do think tiebreakers are going to play a big role for the ladies this year, as I see a number of them possibly going 2-3.

For Pairs: Personally, I have P/J going 3-3, and I/M placing 2nd at CoC. Although there is no information about P/J so we'll see. I still have S/B squeaking into the final. (D/R, S/M, T/M, I/M, Y/Z, S/B)

Dance:
Shibutanis, P/C, and V/M are probably in, even though they have only been to one event. Bobrova/Soloviev are in as well with 26 (1-3), and Chock and Bates are safe with 26 (2-2). Hubbell and Donohue also have 26, but are currently 3rd in the tiebreaker. The only way they wouldn't go, that I can see, is if WeaPo beat the Shibs and win CoC (as we said before, unlikely, but possible). It would actually be sort of sad if WeaPo didn't even qualify for the final, seeing as they won it the past two years.

Nathan13 said:

For men:
Adam is still in the mix for that last spot as well; if Boyang doesn't win CoC and Nathan finishes 3rd or lower at NHK, Adam should be good to go. All of those are possible, but Nathan isn't going to let go of that spot without a fight.

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Yes, plus Bychenko - if he gets 3rd he'll also have 22 points via 3-3.

reneerose said:

If a pair were to withdraw would that further increase Seguin and Bilodeau's chances?

Not that I want anyone to withdraw due to injury....God forbid that!....but Aliona's ankle didn't look good after the LP today...I love her and Bruno a lot!...but I also had a thought cross my mind about if that would somehow help S/B?

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Well, yes, a withdrawing pair (whether either of the two already ahead of S/B in the standings, or one of the teams yet to complete 2 events) would help S/B's chances.

Seguin/Bilodeau are currently 3rd by virtue of the placement tiebreaker.

Technically, the teams that could overtake S/B (and how they'd do that) are:

Already done 1 event
Duhamel/Radford - At least 4th in Japan (24 pts), or 5th in Japan with at least 162.39 to take the tiebreaker (22 pts)
Yu/Zhang - At least 3rd in China (24 pts) since they'd lose the placements tiebreaker if they get 22 pts
Ilyushechkina/Moscovitch - At least 2nd in China (24 pts) since they'd also lose a placements tiebreaker if 22 pts
Kavaguti/Smirnov - Must place 1st in China with at least 197.94 to take the tiebreaker (22 pts)

Assigned to both CoC and NHK - Need at least 24 points, or 22 points with a 1st/5th AND 380.68 points
Peng/Jin
Wang/Wang
Vartmann/Blommaert

At least 4 of these 7 need to overtake Seguin/Bilodeau for them to be out.

I feel like D/R and Y/Z will be in, with the rest coming down to how the yet-to-compete teams look out of the gate. Not expecting Vartmann/Blommaert to be much of a threat (scoring only ~160's at both their Challenger events so far). Kavaguti/Smirnov are probably out since they HAVE to win and HAVE to get a certain score. If they win, but don't score high enough, they're out. If they score high enough but don't win, they're out. Wang/Wang could affect others' qualifications but I don't see them qualifying themselves.

I think Seguin/Bilodeau will end up grabbing that last spot. Honestly, crazier things have happened on this GP series.

Men only

Javier Fernadez- (15-CoR + 15-TDF =30pts)
Shoma Uno- (15-SA + 13-CoR =28pts)
Patrick Chan - I think he will get 15pts there making him have 30pts too like Javier. Unless they let Boyang win CoC and let him have 13pts as a silver. Either way P.Chan will still qualify.
Yuzuru Hanyuluv17: of course!)- I think he will have 28pts (13-SC + 15-NHK). Since Yuzuru love skating in front of his Japanese fans he will not settle for anything less than gold there.
Jason Brown -If he can get a silver or bronze their, he will have 26pts or 24pts that qualify him.
I don't have a six GPF qualifier on mind with all the tiebreakers available. But if Alexei Bychenko manage to beat both Chen and Brown sarcasm: which I don't see very possible but not totally impossible either) and get a silver then I think he might be the sixth GPF qualifier.

Before all the GP series starts my top 6 for GPF are:

• Yuzuru Hanyu
• Javier Fernandez
• Patrick Chan
• Mikhail Kolyada
• Shoma Uno
• Boyang Jin

but now, I don't think it will be very possible at least for Mikhail and Boyang .

I must not be understanding the points system correctly, so I apologize for asking this: how could Nathan Chen qualify with a 4th place finish yesterday and only a (projected) silver at NHK? Is it because Boyang came 5th at Skate America?

SarahSynchro said:

I must not be understanding the points system correctly, so I apologize for asking this: how could Nathan Chen qualify with a 4th place finish yesterday and only a (projected) silver at NHK? Is it because Boyang came 5th at Skate America?

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I have a limited knowledge too but I will try to explain. If Chen is to be silver in NHK he will have 22pts in total against 20pts of Boyang if he only win a silver on CoC. but if Boyang win CoC and have 15pts he will also have 22pts in total then a tiebreaker will be done. tiebreakers I don't really understand how it works though— if it was about the total score or something :think:

it will be about total score

Nathan has big shot at silver at NHK if he can skate decent program then he will have higher scoring potential than Jason

LeeJiHye19 said:

I have a limited knowledge too but I will try to explain. If Chen is to be silver in NHK he will have 22pts in total against 20pts of Boyang if he only win a silver on CoC. but if Boyang win CoC and have 15pts he will also have 22pts in total then a tiebreaker will be done. tiebreakers I don't really understand how it works though— if it was about the total score or something :think:

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If Boyang wins gold at COC and Nathan silver at NHK then Boyang wins the tiebreak. First tiebreak goes to the highest placement, Gold>Silver.

The sixth spot depends on if Boyang can beat Patrick to win COC.
If Boyang win, Adam Is out of final for sure,and Nathan and Kolyada are either unless they can beat Yuzuru.
Boyang will be safe basically unless Bychenko beat Jason, Nathan and Kolyada to grab silver.
If Boyang doesn't win COC.
We have to wait NHK finished to know who is in.

eta said:

Yes, plus Bychenko - if he gets 3rd he'll also have 22 points via 3-3.

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I forgot all about Bychenko That would be a massive[-ly fun and interesting] upset

reneerose said:

If a pair were to withdraw would that further increase Seguin and Bilodeau's chances?

Not that I want anyone to withdraw due to injury....God forbid that!....but Aliona's ankle didn't look good after the LP today...I love her and Bruno a lot!...but I also had a thought cross my mind about if that would somehow help S/B?

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I just read that Aliona has unfortunately sprained her ankle...I sincerely hope she can recover before the GPF...If not, the Pairs competition will be extremely light this year...

I have no idea what is going on with Pairs other than Aliona and Bruno are in, as well as Tarasova and Morozov

Ladies: Well Evgenia is confirmed, I think Satoko has every chance to win NHK and qualify. Or Anna could be flawless (she is most likely in the final, anyway) and leave Satoko in second, in that case, can she still make the final with a silver and bronze? Ashley should also be in, as she will likely win COC. Kaetlyn and Elena have a good chance, who ends up with the silver is most likely in and the other one would go to a tiebreaker with Satoko if she is second at NHK. So:
1. Evgenia Medvedeva (15 + 15 points - confirmed)
2. Ashley Wagner (15 points + likely 15 points)
3. Anna Pogorilaya (15 + 15/13 points)
4. Satoko Miyahara (11 + 15/13 points)
5/6. Katleyn Osmond and Elena Radionova (13 + 13/11 points)
Nice to see a Canadian lady potentially making the Final!

Ice Dance: B/S are in, most likely so are C/B and H/D. Regardless of who wins NHK, P/C and V/M are both in if they score the silver medal there. After TDF, I think P/C have the best chances of winning NHK and will qualify over the Shibs due to total score, if not well we would just switch the places of the two teams (P/C and V/M). The Shibs will also very likely win COC and qualify. So:
1. Papadakis/Cizeron (15 + likely 15)
2. Shibutanis (15 + likely 15)
3. Virtue/Moir (15 + likely 13)
4. Bobrova/Soloviev (11 + 15 - Confirmed)
5/6. Chock/Bates and Hubell/Donahue (13 + 13) I'm not sure who has the highest total score to see who is 5th and 6th.
Weaver and Poje could technically still make the Final if they beat the Shibs at COC, but it doesn't seem very likely. A shame we won't see either them or Capellini/Lanotte at Marseille.

Men: Javier and Shoma are in. Yuzuru is the favorite for NHK, 28 points and he is in (though he would also be in with 26). Given their outings at SA and SC, I would say Patrick has a higher chance of winning COC (though a silver would still be more than enough). But if Boyang wins and ends up with 22 points, he would leave Adam out thanks to placements. Nathan would still be in the mix with a second place at NHK, but I think Jason has a better shot at that silver atm given his PCS and how Nathan still can't fully master his insane layout. But if Nathan wins the silver, he could still take the last spot at the Final (if Boyang doesn't win COC). If Jason wins the bronze and Boyang doesn't win COC, he is still in the Final, though Adam would be out. So going by the prediction of Patrick winning COC and Yuzuru winning NHK:
1. Javier Fernandez (15 + 15 points - confirmed)
2. Patrick Chan (15 + likely 15 points)
3. Shoma Uno (15 + 13 points - confirmed)
4. Yuzuru Hanyu (13 + likely 15 points, we would need to see how well he scores at NHK to see if he qualifies above Shoma)
5. Jason Brown (13 + likely 13 points)
6. Adam Rippon (11 + 11 points)
Just like with the Canadian ladies, it will be great to have American men at the Final :yes:

xibsuarz said:

Ladies: Well Evgenia is confirmed, I think Satoko has every chance to win NHK and qualify. Or a Anna could be flawless (she is most likely in the final, anyway) and leave Satoko in second, in that case, can she still make the final with a silver and bronze?

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Satoko's jumps are getting called. On the other hand, Wakaba has a bronze from TdF, is starting to get high PCS and considering her second is NHK, there's a real chance she could mess up some plans there if she skates well.

I don't follow the ladies as much, would someone tell me if the tech caller for the ladies events at CoR and TdF were as strict as Canada?

(On the other hand the tech callers for men seem to be strict on a person-to-person basis. :disapp

Nathan13 said:

I just read that Aliona has unfortunately sprained her ankle...I sincerely hope she can recover before the GPF...If not, the Pairs competition will be extremely light this year...

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Do we know how bad the ankle injury really is?

Is there an overview of the current standings in this season's GP series (points for the GPF)?

aynia said:

Is there an overview of the current standings in this season's GP series (points for the GPF)?

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ISU always has updated standings links: http://www.isu.org/en/single-and-pair-skating-and-ice-dance/series/isu-grand-prix-of-figure-skating

chemistry66 said:

isu always has updated standings links: http://www.isu.org/en/single-and-pair-skating-and-ice-dance/series/isu-grand-prix-of-figure-skating

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Thanks.

aynia said:

Thanks.

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No problem.

Usually they're URL sites but for some reason this year they're PDFs.

xibsuarz said:

Ladies: Well Evgenia is confirmed, I think Satoko has every chance to win NHK and qualify. Or Anna could be flawless (she is most likely in the final, anyway) and leave Satoko in second, in that case, can she still make the final with a silver and bronze? Ashley should also be in, as she will likely win COC. Kaetlyn and Elena have a good chance, who ends up with the silver is most likely in and the other one would go to a tiebreaker with Satoko if she is second at NHK. So:
1. Evgenia Medvedeva (15 + 15 points - confirmed)
2. Ashley Wagner (15 points + likely 15 points)
3. Anna Pogorilaya (15 + 15/13 points)
4. Satoko Miyahara (11 + 15/13 points)
5/6. Katleyn Osmond and Elena Radionova (13 + 13/11 points)
Nice to see a Canadian lady potentially making the Final!

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Wagner just opened the door for Satoko, Wakaba and Maria. Now the last 3 spots will be decided by placements of Pogo, Satoko, Wakaba and Maria at NHK.

Pogo needs top 4 and she would definitely be in.

Maria needs top 4 and for one of Satoko or Wakaba to finish no higher than 3rd. She should really root for Pogo (or herself ) to finish ahead of either Satoko or Wakaba and pray hard that Satoko and Wakaba don't go 1 and 2.

Satoko and Wakaba ideally needs 1st or 2nd. If they place 3rd, they need Maria to finish lower than 4th or for Pogo to bomb a la Wagner (6th or lower). If they finish 2nd and Maria 3rd, then tiebreak will depend on total score between the two.

I think I got this right