2016 Cup of China Data Analysis - Men

Mrs. P said:

Actually, I haven't thought about any specific. I just like surprises -- and good competition.

Honestly though, I think it would be fun to see Boyang do it again (and move up); I like that kid. It would be fun to see Jason do it for the mind-blown-nobody-saw-this-coming-mode that has come with his career. I wouldn't be surprised if Shoma won cause he's quite the competitor.

But I guess I'm veering off the discussion flow--cause the speculation is who would win if clean. I guess I'd stick with Hanyu-Chan-Fernandez too with Shoma and Boyang playing spoiler.

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Boyang Jin is out of GPF, by this 1 pt loss, even if Jason, Nathan or Kolyada were to fail at NHK to make it to podium, Adam will get this spot. COC judging ensured this. Tbh, I'm certain that this was the intended outcome all along.

If Jin had won by even <1, and deservedly so as he performed the highest BV TES with the fewest mistakes but received astonishingly low GOE and PCS from some judges, then he would likely make it to GPF.

So NHK will determine who gets this GPF spot but definitely Jin is out, as Adam will get it if the 3 mentioned fail to get on the podium.

This is why it's such a controversial win. I seldom say this but Jin was robbed, not by Chan or even Canada as Patrick will get in with a Silver, but by the judges who want their own skaters to get this GPF spot.

I hope that Jason will get on the podium at NHK, we'll see him at GPF. :agree:

Spiderman is gone until World's for now.

qwertyskates said:

Boyang Jin is out of GPF, by this 1 pt loss,

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why didn't anyone complain when jin lost by this tiny margin at SA? were people so confident he would win CoC? (it's not like Jin automatically records wins over Patrick) I keep reminding people about this because truly, Jin not going to GPF is a combination of events... not just what happened at CoC...

have a look here

4 Sergei VORONOV
RUS
245.28 5 5
5 Boyang JIN
CHN
245.08 8 4

You can say all you want that Jin lost by 1 point over Chan at Coc and lost GPF participation but the reality is that he indeed finished 5th by .20 in SA... having won a 4th place there would have made his chances much better.... have a look at judges scores if you wish.. I am sure you will find that some preferred skater A or B over Jin...


I am very fond of Weapo .... I am sure you all remember this result where they lost by .02... that wasn't GPF.. that was worlds... many here argued that the French should have won...

1 Anna Cappellini / Luca Lanotte Italy 175.43 1 69.70 4 105.73
2 Kaitlyn Weaver / Andrew Poje Canada 175.41 2 69.20 3 106.21
3 Nathalie Péchalat / Fabian Bourzat France 175.37 3 68.20 2 107.17

Why am I posting this :

Simply because judges, unless they are REALLY cheating, do not know how scores will add up.... How could they plan for a .02 difference... or a .20 ... or even 1 point difference...

They give scores, live, to the best of their ability/judgment... they have preferences for sure. But I do not think they can plan for these numbers... because they don't know what the other judges will do... in the end, the judges who are leaning at the extremes will get their scores disregarded... even more suspense...

I am happy that you are saying that Jin wasn't robbed by Patrick or Canada... as you said, Patrick needed about a 3rd or even a 4th place to get to GPF. He skated as best as he could. However, did the judges really robbed Jin??? Did they mean to make sure he wouldn't go to GPF?

Honestly, because they don't know how their peers are scoring, I would say that they cannot... the fact that the margin is so close is probably upsetting to you, but in the end, it's just a number.. like the .02 advantage that made the Italians world champions.... Did the judges want them to be world champions??? they ranked 3rd in the free dance.... at the end, who was robbed??? Weapo??? the French??? or even the Italians??? why do I dare say the Italians??? because their victory has been challenged....

I think that the COP is like that... some of these margins are very low... 6.0 was often very close as well... but then it was clear that ranking trumped everything... in here, the scores establish a ranking... so in the end, small or big, I wish that fans would look at the ranking and accept it.

I have read so many anti-Canada and anti-Chan comments this week... over what? a GP???? I am scared of what could happen later in the season... why can't we be accepting of results a bit more? It's not like we can change them.

WE JUST HAVE TO AGREE TO DISAGREE.

I'm tired of arguing with you because it's like arguing with BoP, you both are two sides of the same coin.

Jin made more mistakes at SA, his money jump is the 4Lz-3T, so if he missed that his BV takes a beating, and he fell a couple of times there. Spiderman looked good then but his jumps errors marred his performance, so his low PCS was acceptable.

Sergei made fewer mistakes and deserves the win over Jin at SC. I also feel that Sergei was low-balled at CoC, I wrote that after his SP, he deserves better.

At COC, Jin skated almost flawlessly his SP, much better than Patrick skated his SP, had a more intricate choreography, better performance, better connection to audience, and overall made fewer mistakes than Patrick.

Bear in mind that Jin's programs were much more difficult, with higher BV. Patrick has also simplified his programs, hence level 3 stsq. I don't blame Patrick for choosing a smart "Shoma" strategy, after all, winning matters to an athlete.

But you belong to the "Patrick can fall and still win over clean Hanyu and Javier" camp, even with simpler programs and lower BV, so I won't argue with you.

I am a fan of Patrick's skating but I won't insist that he deserves to win when he makes more mistakes than his rivals. Judging needs to be fair.

Even when Patrick lost in previous seasons, I still appreciated his beautiful programs and skating and support him.

At SC, Jin didn't perform well at all in SP, so I was ok for his placement because Sergei and the others skated better. At COC Jin skated better, with fewer mistakes, than everyone (not tha Jin was that great but almost every skater fell, popped or made mistakes). For example, if Brezina didn't pop his jumps or fall, I'd happily accept his win over Jin and Chan because of his superior SS, StSq, etc.

The difference between you and I is that when Jin or Patrick deliver a subpar performance and messed up their jumps, I would agree that they deserve to lose.

Without the Gold, a 4th place won't make a difference to Jin's chances.

Of course the judges wouldn't know how the scores will end up, they would just "try their best". I bet the Chinese judge wishes he had been more generous with Jin, seeing that the Canadian judge gave a whopping 24+ advantage vs a 3+ from him in the FS. The other judges such as the NZ, Japanese and Czech judges were more generous towards Jin.

Again, it's a controversial 1 pt PCS/GOE win. Let's leave it at that.

qwertyskates said:

WE JUST HAVE TO AGREE TO DISAGREE.

I'm tired of arguing with you because it's like arguing with BoP, you both are two sides of the same coin.

Jin made more mistakes at SA, his money jump is the 4Lz-3T, so if he missed that his BV takes a beating, and he fell a couple of times there. Spiderman looked good then but his jumps errors marred his performance, so his low PCS was acceptable.

Sergei made fewer mistakes and deserves the win over Jin at SC. I also feel that Sergei was low-balled at CoC, I wrote that after his SP, he deserves better.

At COC, Jin skated almost flawlessly his SP, much better than Patrick skated his SP, had a more intricate choreography, better performance, better connection to audience, and overall made fewer mistakes than Patrick.

Bear in mind that Jin's programs were much more difficult, with higher BV. Patrick has also simplified his programs, hence level 3 stsq. I don't blame Patrick for choosing a smart "Shoma" strategy, after all, winning matters to an athlete.

But you belong to the "Patrick can fall and still win over clean Hanyu and Javier" camp, even with simpler programs and lower BV, so I won't argue with you.

I am a fan of Patrick's skating but I won't insist that he deserves to win when he makes more mistakes than his rivals. Judging needs to be fair.

Without the Gold, a 4th place won't make a difference to Jin's chances.

Of course the judges wouldn't know how the scores will end up, they would just "try their best". I bet the Chinese judge wishes he had been more generous with Jin, seeing that the Canadian judge gave a whopping 24+ advantage vs a 3+ from him in the FS. The other judges such as the NZ, Japanese and Czech judges were more generous towards Jin.

Again, it's a controversial 1 pt PCS/GOE win. Let's leave it at that.

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Honestly, I was simply trying to offer another perspective about judging here... not trying to agree nor disagree with you. So you will forgive me but I am not fond of the comparison you make of me and some other GS users here... Also, I find that your labeling of me as a Chan fan who is thinking that Chan should win every single competition whether or not he falls is over the top. If you knew me properly, you would know that all I care for is that Chan delivers clean programs, whether it makes him first or last... I have been very excited about his new LP because I find it beautiful and different from anything he's done before... however, if you read what I keep writing in his fan fest, I do not care about results... I just wish to see this program skated cleanly... he could do all doubles and finish 18th and I wouldn't care.

With my comment, I was trying to offer this other perspective about the judges because I have been through it with Weapo... I have questioned their loss by such a small margin for a long time... in the end, I just had to accept it... it just happened... I was thinking that perhaps my post would offer some relief because you are still commenting about Jin's misfortune. I see that the wound is too fresh. I leave you to it.

qwertyskates said:

Boyang Jin is out of GPF, by this 1 pt loss, even if Jason, Nathan or Kolyada were to fail at NHK to make it to podium, Adam will get this spot. COC judging ensured this. Tbh, I'm certain that this was the intended outcome all along.

If Jin had won by even <1, and deservedly so as he performed the highest BV TES with the fewest mistakes but received astonishingly low GOE and PCS from some judges, then he would likely make it to GPF.

So NHK will determine who gets this GPF spot but definitely Jin is out, as Adam will get it if the 3 mentioned fail to get on the podium.

This is why it's such a controversial win. I seldom say this but Jin was robbed, not by Chan or even Canada as Patrick will get in with a Silver, but by the judges who want their own skaters to get this GPF spot.

I hope that Jason will get on the podium at NHK, we'll see him at GPF. :agree:

Spiderman is gone until World's for now.

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SpiderBoyang will come back for 4CC until Worlds.

4everchan said:

Honestly, I was simply trying to offer another perspective about judging here... not trying to agree nor disagree with you. So you will forgive me but I am not fond of the comparison you make of me and some other GS users here... Also, I find that your labeling of me as a Chan fan who is thinking that Chan should win every single competition whether or not he falls is over the top. If you knew me properly, you would know that all I care for is that Chan delivers clean programs, whether it makes him first or last... I have been very excited about his new LP because I find it beautiful and different from anything he's done before... however, if you read what I keep writing in his fan fest, I do not care about results... I just wish to see this program skated cleanly... he could all doubles and finish 18th and I wouldn't care.

With my comment, I was trying to offer this other perspective about the judges because I have been through it with Weapo... I have questioned their lost by such a small margin for a long time... in the end, it just had to accept it... it just happened... I was thinking that perhaps my post would offer some relief because you are still commenting about Jin's misfortune. I see that the wound is too fresh. I leave you to it.

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I don't necessarily blame the Canadian judge, it's expected that he will do his utmost for Patrick. Definitely Patrick isn't to be picked apart because the judges privileged him. I don't agree with how some posters tore at Patrick, but those obviously OTT posts speak for themselves. My beef is with the judges who judged Jin unfairly, via GOE/PCS, very likely to push their own athletes ahead to GPF.

However, I also disagree with ubers who feel that their favourites should still win with worse performances, so I don't like it when either Patrick, Yuzu or Javier won with subpar performances due to huge PCS/GOE margins. I just don't make exceptions, and the one who deserves to win deserves to win, even if it's a skater I don't have the stomach for, eg. Shoma (to qualify my unfavourable impression it's due to his lack of content and the over abundance of crossovers-jumps, the very thing for which Jin was unfairly pummeled when he first made his debut with his quads. If Shoma starts showing up with quality content and half the crossovers I'd become a fan), if everyone else failed to perform on that day.

Win or lose, I still like Patrick for his beautiful seamless powerful skating across the rink, Yuzu for his beautiful transitions into his big jumps, Javier for his charisma in the rink, Jin for his textbook jumps, his earnestness and fun nerdy persona, etc., that said, I won't overlook their flaws nor will I diminish the strengths of their rivals.

We don't need to be tribal about this sport, it's not soccer!

Crossover said:

SpiderBoyang will come back for 4CC until Worlds.

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That is smashing! I will look forward so much to rewatch a hopefully flawless LP as well.

I'm glad though, that Jin will always be remembered for Spiderman, the first ever on ice.:agree:

qwertyskates said:

Boyang Jin is out of GPF, by this 1 pt loss, even if Jason, Nathan or Kolyada were to fail at NHK to make it to podium, Adam will get this spot. COC judging ensured this. Tbh, I'm certain that this was the intended outcome all along.

If Jin had won by even <1, and deservedly so as he performed the highest BV TES with the fewest mistakes but received astonishingly low GOE and PCS from some judges, then he would likely make it to GPF.

So NHK will determine who gets this GPF spot but definitely Jin is out, as Adam will get it if the 3 mentioned fail to get on the podium.

This is why it's such a controversial win. I seldom say this but Jin was robbed, not by Chan or even Canada as Patrick will get in with a Silver, but by the judges who want their own skaters to get this GPF spot.

I hope that Jason will get on the podium at NHK, we'll see him at GPF. :agree:

Spiderman is gone until World's for now.

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Oh, I was talking about Worlds LOL -- clearly I was not tuned into the discussion. I guess Jason can be a spoiler for the podium at GPF -- I don't mind saying that out loud.

Of course, that depends on him getting into GPF, which is not a given.

Geek On Ice's amazing work made me want to dwelve a tiny bit deeper. So, a few more tables. Because we love tables, and numbers .

Please do take this with a grain of salt. I'm not doing it to prove anything, I'm doing it because numbers are fun (and ok, a little bit because I'm curious).

I used Geek on Ice's wonderful table as a base for those, obviously, so they can fit with the rest of them. Thanks again GOI, because I had never done a table on a forum, and tonight I feel a tiny bit smarter than I felt this morning (there are no small victories ).


GOE per judge and per skater, from highest to lowest





What I get from these :

• Home cooking doesn't only happen at home. Out of the 6 countries that had skaters representing them, 100% gave at least to one of their own skater their best GOE for the SP .
• Some judges drink too much, really.
• MINER is almost everywhere, from 1st to last. That's an achievement in itself.
• KOVTUN goes from -5 to +5, which is another kind of achievement :shocked:
• Only three countries didn't put JIN in first place, the skater they put first instead was someone from their own country, 100% of the time.
• Numbers are funny.

Now I've done this, I have to admit that it made me want to do a rewatch, with the numbers at hand, so I can compare things and see if the judges are actually trying to be fair, or if they're just rolling a dice

Some observations from Lysambre's data:

Out of the corridor low scores are 4 for Chan by China, 4 for Jin by Russia, 0 for Yan by New Zealand, 0 for Petrov by Poland, 2 for Voronov by Canada, 0 for Aaron by Poland, 3 for Miner by Japan, and -5 for Kovtun by Canada.

Out of the corridor high scores are 10 for Miner by USA, 5 for Kovtun by Japan.

Difference between Chan and Jin by each judge (C in favour of Chan and J in favor of Jin):

CHN: J6
RUS: C3
CAD: C3
CZR: J2
ISR: J1
JPN: J1
USA: J1
NZL: J1
POL: 0

The Chinese judge was very stingy with GOE except for Jin who received twice as many points as the next highest. He was given 10 pts, Yan 5, and everybody else 4 or less. In fact, throwing out the way out of corridor 0 from NZL, Yan received his lowest GOE from China together with Israel, while being scored in the narrow range of mostly 6 and 7.