Predictions: Russian team for Euro Champs

The Finn · Nov 20, 2016

So, who you think will make it to the Russian team for European Championships? How about for World Championships?

These are my predictions.

Men
At this moment I would say Kolyada and Voronov should make it for both Euros and Worlds. The 3rd one at Euros could be anyone really but I guess it will most likely be Kovtun. Personally I would rather see Petrov and not Kovtun taking the last Euro spot. Hopefully it will be Kolyada and Voronov at Worlds.

Ladies
Zhenia and Anna will surely make it for both Euros and Worlds. Lena will most likely be the 3rd skater at both events but Maria could become a real contender if she does make it to the GPF which looks likely. I kind of would like to see Maria at Euros.

Pairs
Tarasova/Morozov will surely make it for both Euros and Worlds. If Stolbova/Klimov are fit then obviously they will skate at both events also. Zabijako/Enbert should be the 3rd team (or 2nd team if S/K aren't ready) for both Euros and Worlds. Astakhanova/Rogonov would be the back-up team for Stolbova/Klimov. I definitely want to see Zabijako/Enbert at Euros and at Worlds.

Ice dance
Obviously Bobrova/Soloviev is the number one team here. At this moment it looks like Stepanova/Bukin is pretty clearly number 2 team but Sinitsina/Katsalapov can try to change that view next week. Sinitsina/Katsalapov looks like a number 3 team here but their position is not strong and both Ilinykh/Zhiganshin and Zahorski/Guerreiro can overtake them at nationals. Out of these three teams anyone of them can take the 3rd Euro spot. I would be interested in seeing Zahorski/Guerreiro at Euros but since they are the underdogs here it is more likely that one of the other two teams will take that last spot.

hanca · Nov 20, 2016

The Finn said:
So, who you think will make it to the Russian team for European Championships? How about for World Championships?

These are my predictions.

Men
At this moment I would say Kolyada and Voronov should make it for both Euros and Worlds. The 3rd one at Euros could be anyone really but I guess it will most likely be Kovtun. Personally I would rather see Petrov and not Kovtun taking the last Euro spot. Hopefully it will be Kolyada and Voronov at Worlds.

Ladies
Zhenia and Anna will surely make it for both Euros and Worlds. Lena will most likely be the 3rd skater at both events but Maria could become a real contender if she does make it to the GPF which looks likely. I kind of would like to see Maria at Euros.

Pairs
Tarasova/Morozov will surely make it for both Euros and Worlds. If Stolbova/Klimov are fit then obviously they will skate at both events also. Zabijako/Enbert should be the 3rd team (or 2nd team if S/K aren't ready) for both Euros and Worlds. Astakhanova/Rogonov would be the back-up team for Stolbova/Klimov. I definitely want to see Zabijako/Enbert at Euros and at Worlds.

Ice dance
Obviously Bobrova/Soloviev is the number one team here. At this moment it looks like Stepanova/Bukin is pretty clearly number 2 team but Sinitsina/Katsalapov can try to change that view next week. Sinitsina/Katsalapov looks like a number 3 team here but their position is not strong and both Ilinykh/Zhiganshin and Zahorski/Guerreiro can overtake them at nationals. Out of these three teams anyone of them can take the 3rd Euro spot. I would be interested in seeing Zahorski/Guerreiro at Euros but since they are the underdogs here it is more likely that one of the other two teams will take that last spot.

Your predictions are based too much on their results and not enough on politicking. This is Russian federation we are talking about.

Men - I wouldn't be surprised if Voronov is left home and they make the team Kolyada, Kovtun, Petrov. All they need is to lowball Voronov at the nationals that he finishes third, and the third finisher doesn't have their spot certain. They kept Menshov down despite his results, and now Voronov is the oldest, so they may think that long term they want to support young talent...

Ice dance - if it is like last year, they will make the results based on whoever they want to see at Euros and worlds, not on skating at the nationals. They just make the nationals results fit into the desirable outcome.

The pairs I agree with you, because there is no one else left.

Ladies - the third spot will be a fight between Radionova, Sotskova and Tuktamysheva. Based on her results Tuktamysheva has only small chance, but she may surprise us. (Personally I don't believe it will happen, but it is possible. She has been written off so many times and then she suddenly bounced back). I am hoping for Radionova, because she is a fighter. Saying that, Sotskova improved a lot this season on her presentation and doesn't look so juniorish any more. She suddenly skates bigger, I like that.

The Finn · Nov 20, 2016

hanca said:
Your predictions are based too much on their results and not enough on politicking. This is Russian federation we are talking about.

Sure there is that and has always been but there is no need to exaggerate the significance of it. The same thing can be said about many international events also. There are the ones judges push hard because of political reasons and there are the ones they push down. That is the way figure skating works.

silverfoxes · Nov 20, 2016

hanca said:
Your predictions are based too much on their results and not enough on politicking. This is Russian federation we are talking about.

Men - I wouldn't be surprised if Voronov is left home and they make the team Kolyada, Kovtun, Petrov. All they need is to lowball Voronov at the nationals that he finishes third, and the third finisher doesn't have their spot certain. They kept Menshov down despite his results, and now Voronov is the oldest, so they may think that long term they want to support young talent...

I hate the Russian fed for what they did to Menshov, but they can't be stupid enough to do that in this case. You can see that even with mistakes Sergei is capable of scoring far higher than clean Petrov. He's also been pretty consistent lately, which you could never say about Menshov in 2012 when they screwed him over. Sergei's track record is much better than Menshov's was - he's already a 2-time Euro medalist. And as wrong as they were to do that to Menshov, he still got to go to Euros the next season & medaled there. You would think the Fed would have learned their lesson after that mess. As for Kovtun, Sergei has been getting the higher scores internationally and he's beaten Max in both their competitions soundly. So there is absolutely no reason for them to keep Sergei down at all (unless some disaster happens at Nats, I guess).

invisiblespiral · Nov 20, 2016

My guesses:

Men: Kolyada, Voronov, Petrov?

Ladies: Medvedeva, Pogorilaya, Radionova or Sotskova.

Pairs: T/M, Z/E, S/K?

Dance: B/S, S/B, S/K?

:slink:

voolfee · Nov 20, 2016

Men: Kolyada, Voronov, Kovtun

Ladies: Medvedeva, Pogorilaya, Radionova

Pairs: T/M, Z/E, S/K

Dance: B/S, S/B, S/K

puremagic · Nov 20, 2016

silverfoxes said:
(unless some disaster happens at Nats, I guess).

of course it does, just see:
1st Kovtun
2nd Kolyada
3rd Petrov/Voronov

Kovtun as always could be clean or almost clean in RusNats. I saw his SP score at domestic competition. it was 100+

So even if he spoil his FS, he will have handicap and also high PCS for nothing. I don't know why everyone put him third or fourth.
He could win RusNats and then will be 10th-15th at Euro/Worlds. :palmf:

samkrut@mail.ru · Nov 20, 2016

puremagic said:
of course it does, just see:
1st Kovtun
2nd Kolyada
3rd Petrov/Voronov

Kovtun as always could be clean or almost clean in RusNats. I saw his SP score at domestic competition. it was 100+
So even if he spoil his FS, he will have handicap and also high PCS for nothing. I don't know why everyone put him third or fourth.
He could win RusNats and then will be 10th-15th at Euro/Worlds.

He will have to land his quads. I don't think that winning nationals is a sure thing for him this time. His international status has deteriorated while Voronov's has in fact improved. Last season for a cleanish FS at the Europeans Kovtun received 81 pcs, and when he bombed at NHK he still got 77. Now with a relatively strong performance he got only 75. The Fed is not stupid and blatantly political. Of course, if Kovtun lands in total 5 quads and 3 3As he will win the Nationals another time with the score of 280-290. Then the question will be what's going on with his head and how he can do the same internationally. But I doubt that he will make it. Then the team will be Kolyada and Voronov for the worlds plus either Petrov or Kovtun for the Europeans.

As for ladies, let's wait. So far the team seems to be the same as the last year.

gmyers · Nov 20, 2016

puremagic said:
of course it does, just see:
1st Kovtun
2nd Kolyada
3rd Petrov/Voronov

Kovtun as always could be clean or almost clean in RusNats. I saw his SP score at domestic competition. it was 100+
So even if he spoil his FS, he will have handicap and also high PCS for nothing. I don't know why everyone put him third or fourth.
He could win RusNats and then will be 10th-15th at Euro/Worlds.

How many times can kovtun get away with this though? It's now 3 times I think. He doesn't justify any of the support he's getting. He is not even second to Fernandez in Europe! He's not even close. He is third. That's the worst thing.

Tolstoj · Dec 18, 2016

My wishes:

Ladies: Medvedeva, Tuktamysheva (with 3A), Pogorilaya

Men: Kolyada, Voronov, Aliev.

Pairs: S/K, T/M, Z/E

Ice Dance: B/S, S/B, I/Z

Reality:

Ladies -> Medvedeva, Pogorilaya, Radionova (Zagitova 3rd)

Men -> Voronov, Kolyada, Kovtun

Pairs -> T/M, S/K, Z/E

Ice Dance -> B/S, S/B, I/Z

pasha74 · Dec 18, 2016

The Finn said:
...(...) I definitely want to see Zabijako/Enbert at Euros and at Worlds. (...) I would be interested in seeing Zahorski/Guerreiro at Euros ...

Here's also rooting for those two pairs! :clap:

hanca · Dec 18, 2016

Tolstoj said:
My wishes:

Ladies: Medvedeva, Tuktamysheva (with 3A), Pogorilaya

Men: Kolyada, Voronov, Aliev.

Pairs: S/K, T/M, Z/E

Ice Dance: B/S, S/B, I/Z

Reality:

Ladies -> Medvedeva, Pogorilaya, Radionova/Zagitova

Men -> Voronov, Kolyada, Kovtun

Pairs -> T/M, S/K, Z/E

Ice Dance -> B/S, S/B, I/Z

Zagitova is not age eligible. Only from next season she will be senior eligible.

Tolstoj · Dec 18, 2016

hanca said:
Zagitova is not age eligible. Only from next season she will be senior eligible.

Yes sorry that was Zagitova 3rd at RN but Radionova qualified.

noctiluca · Dec 18, 2016

Ladies
Medvedeva
Radionova
Tuktamysheva

Men
Kolyada
Kovtun
Voronov

Pairs
Tarasova/Morozov
Stolbova/Klimov
Zabijako/Enbert

Ice Dance
Bobrova/Soloviev
Ilinykh/Zhiganshin
Stepanova/Bukin

lavoix · Dec 19, 2016

If Radionova holds it up at nationals, she will get the 3rd sport for Europeans.

How would Russia decide the worlds team? I can see Sotskova improving between now and worlds rather than now and Europeans.

pasha74 · Dec 19, 2016

My humble predictions/wishes:

MEN: that's the only discipline I don't follow, so I haven't got the slightest idea... :eek:

:

LADIES: Medvedeva, Pogorilaya, Sotskova (though Radionova and Tutkamysheva could also surprise us and get the 3rd spot)

PAIRS: Tarasova/Morozov, Zabiiako/Enbert, Stolbova/Klimov

DANCE: Bobrova/Soloviev, Sinitsina/Katsalapov, and the 3rd either to Ilinykh/Zhiganshin, Stepanova/Bukin or Zahorski/Guerreiro (as already said, I root for Z/G! :yahoo:

)

moriel · Dec 19, 2016

Men: Kolyada and Voronov are a lock imho, unless they bomb terribly. Both have the best international records over last 2 years, so shall be in. No clue about 3rd
Ladies: Medvedeva, Pogorilaya (she may be in even with a bad performance at nationals, because 3rd place isnt a lock and she was clear russian #2 internationally this season). 3rd spot is up for grabs, imho Sotskova will get it (although Radionova has a chance). I dont think Liza can surprise us this year.
Pairs: Tarasova/Morozov, Zabiiako/Enbert, Stolbova/Klimov
Dance: B/S and S/B. Third is up for grabs, will be a fight between Ilinykh/Zhiganshin and Sinitsina/Katsalapov.

LadyB · Dec 19, 2016

silverfoxes said:
I hate the Russian fed for what they did to Menshov, but they can't be stupid enough to do that in this case. You can see that even with mistakes Sergei is capable of scoring far higher than clean Petrov. He's also been pretty consistent lately, which you could never say about Menshov in 2012 when they screwed him over. Sergei's track record is much better than Menshov's was - he's already a 2-time Euro medalist. And as wrong as they were to do that to Menshov, he still got to go to Euros the next season & medaled there. You would think the Fed would have learned their lesson after that mess. As for Kovtun, Sergei has been getting the higher scores internationally and he's beaten Max in both their competitions soundly. So there is absolutely no reason for them to keep Sergei down at all (unless some disaster happens at Nats, I guess).

I couldn't agree more with you and I hate to say this, but I think results will reflect by and large the fed's wishes. Sergei has to be absolutely on top of his game, which I have no doubt he can be. Then again, if they want a medal at Europeans it's hard to ignore a GP medalist. We see weird and wonderful scoring at GP events, and most definitely at (any) Nationals. Fingers crossed!! :cheer:

Ice Dance · Dec 21, 2016

hanca said:
Ice dance - if it is like last year, they will make the results based on whoever they want to see at Euros and worlds, not on skating at the nationals. They just make the nationals results fit into the desirable outcome.

I 100% disagree about your take on the dance event at Russian Nationals last season. Placements changed dramatically between the SD and FD. The judges didn't make Elena fall right off the bat in the short or make Nikita blow the twizzles in the free. And for all those people who didn't think Stepanova & Bukin belonged in the top three, look which team people think is the most likely #2 this season.

hanca · Dec 21, 2016

Ice Dance said:
I 100% disagree about your take on the dance event at Russian Nationals last season. Placements changed dramatically between the SD and FD. The judges didn't make Elena fall right off the bat in the short or make Nikita blow the twizzles in the free. And for all those people who didn't think Stepanova & Bukin belonged in the top three, look which team people think is the most likely #2 this season.

I didn't say that last year placement did not change between SD and FD. What I implied was that the Federation let win whoever they wanted. S/K placed so well with their mistake because the purpose was to have them on top of the podium, which unfortunately did not work out (if any other couple made those mistakes they would be out of medals!). The same way they will arrange ice dance this year, having whoever is desirable at the top, and whoever they don't want to send to Europeans/worlds will be out of the medals. Ice dance is easily manipulated considering that they all have very comparable base value and the results are determined by PCS and GOE. So marking the favourite couples generously and the undesirable one very scroogily will ensure the podium according to the wishes of the federation.

Predictions: Russian team for Euro Champs

The Finn

hanca

The Finn

silverfoxes

invisiblespiral

voolfee

puremagic

-

[email protected]

Medalist

gmyers

Tolstoj

pasha74

hanca

Tolstoj

noctiluca

lavoix

Match Penalty

pasha74

moriel

LadyB

Ice Dance

hanca

Similar threads

Connect with us