2016 NHK Trophy Data Analysis - Men

Geek On Ice · Nov 22, 2016

Data Analysis - 2016 NHK Trophy Mens SP

OVERVIEW (BV+GOE=TES-Ded+PCS=TSS) (*= Fall on Quad)

	BV (Jump/Spin/Step)	GOE (Jump/Spin/Step)	TES	Ded.	PCS	TSS
1.Yuzuru HANYU	49.75 (36.15/9.70/3.90)	7.60 (2.66/3.14/1.80)	57.35	0.00	46.54	103.89
2.Nathan CHEN	52.05 (39.55/9.20/3.30)	-3.50 (-6.00/1.50/1.00)	48.55	1.00*	40.39	87.94
3.Keiji TANAKA	42.16 (29.56/9.30/3.30)	-0.02 (-1.16/0.50/0.64)	42.14	0.00	38.35	80.49
4.Mikhail KOLYADA	33.83 (20.83/9.70/3.30)	3.80 (0.80/2.36/0.64)	37.63	0.00	40.55	78.18
5.Elladj BALDE	36.10 (24.10/8.70/3.30)	2.08 (0.47/0.82/0.79)	38.18	0.00	38.11	76.29
6.Nam NGUYEN	41.50 (29.90/8.30/3.30)	-1.46 (-2.10/0.21/0.43)	40.04	1.00	36.29	75.33
7.Alexei BYCHENKO	36.06 (26.06/7.40/2.60)	-0.25 (-1.35/0.31/0.79)	35.81	0.00	39.32	75.13
8.Jason BROWN	32.43 (20.83/8.30/3.30)	-0.63 (-3.50/1.58/1.29)	31.80	0.00	42.53	74.33
9.Ryuju HINO	36.51 (24.41/8.80/3.30)	1.31 (0.39/0.78/0.14)	37.82	0.00	34.68	72.50
10.Deniss VASILJEVS	32.87 (19.87/9.70/3.30)	0.95 (-0.97/1.35/0.57)	33.82	0.00	36.68	70.50
11.Grant HOCHSTEIN	38.73 (26.83/9.30/2.60)	-5.09 (-6.66/1.36/0.21)	33.64	1.00*	35.67	68.31

BV

1.CHEN	52.05
2.HANYU	49.75
3.TANAKA	42.16
4.NGUYEN	41.50
5.HOCHSTEIN	38.73
6.HINO	36.51
7.BALDE	36.10
8.BYCHENKO	36.06
9.KOLYADA	33.83
10.VASILJEVS	32.87
11.BROWN	32.43

GOE

1.HANYU	7.60
2.KOLYADA	3.80
3.BALDE	2.08
4.HINO	1.31
5.VASILJEVS	0.95
6.TANAKA	-0.02
7.BYCHENKO	-0.25
8.BROWN	-0.63
9.NGUYEN	-1.46
10.CHEN	-3.50
11.HOCHSTEIN	-5.09

TES

1.HANYU	57.35
2.CHEN	48.55
3.TANAKA	42.14
4.NGUYEN	40.04
5.BALDE	38.18
6.HINO	37.82
7.KOLYADA	37.63
8.BYCHENKO	35.81
9.VASILJEVS	33.82
10.HOCHSTEIN	33.64
11.BROWN	31.80

PCS

1.HANYU	46.54
2.BROWN	42.53
3.KOLYADA	40.55
4.CHEN	40.39
5.BYCHENKO	39.32
6.TANAKA	38.35
7.BALDE	38.11
8.VASILJEVS	36.68
9.NGUYEN	36.29
10.HOCHSTEIN	35.67
11.HINO	34.68

JUMP - Total (BV/GOE)

1.HANYU	38.81 (36.15/2.66)
2.CHEN	33.55 (39.55/-6.00)
3.TANAKA	28.40 (29.56/-1.16)
4.NGUYEN	27.80 (29.90/-2.10)
5.HINO	24.80 (24.41/0.39)
6.BYCHENKO	24.71 (26.06/-1.35)
7.BALDE	24.57 (24.10/0.47)
8.KOLYADA	21.63 (20.83/0.80)
9.HOCHSTEIN	20.17 (26.83/-6.66)
10.VASILJEVS	18.90 (19.87/-0.97)
11.BROWN	17.33 (20.83/-3.50)

SPIN - Total (BV/GOE)

1.HANYU	12.84 (9.70/3.14)
2.KOLYADA	12.06 (9.70/2.36)
3.VASILJEVS	11.05 (9.70/1.35)
4.CHEN	10.70 (9.20/1.50)
5.HOCHSTEIN	10.66 (9.30/1.36)
6.BROWN	9.88 (8.30/1.58)
7.TANAKA	9.80 (9.30/0.50)
8.HINO	9.58 (8.80/0.78)
9.BALDE	9.52 (8.70/0.82)
10.NGUYEN	8.51 (8.30/0.21)
11.BYCHENKO	7.71 (7.40/0.31)

StSq - Total (BV/GOE) (*=Lv.4)

1.HANYU	5.70 (3.90*/1.80)
2.BROWN	4.59 (3.30/1.29)
3.CHEN	4.30 (3.30/1.00)
4.BALDE	4.09 (3.30/0.79)
5.TANAKA	3.94 (3.30/0.64)
5.KOLYADA	3.94 (3.30/0.64)
7.VASILJEVS	3.87 (3.30/0.57)
8.NGUYEN	3.73 (3.30/0.43)
9.HINO	3.44 (3.30/0.14)
10.BYCHENKO	3.39 (2.60/0.79)
11.HOCHSTEIN	2.81 (2.60/0.21)

SS

1.HANYU	9.39
2.BROWN	8.36
3.KOLYADA	8.21
4.CHEN	8.18
5.BYCHENKO	7.93
6.TANAKA	7.75
7.BALDE	7.57
8.VASILJEVS	7.32
9.NGUYEN	7.21
10.HOCHSTEIN	7.14
11.HINO	7.11

TR

1.HANYU	9.04
2.BROWN	8.54
3.CHEN	8.04
4.KOLYADA	7.96
5.BYCHENKO	7.54
6.TANAKA	7.50
7.BALDE	7.36
8.VASILJEVS	7.14
9.NGUYEN	7.07
9.HOCHSTEIN	7.07
11.HINO	6.71

[TR]

PE

1.HANYU	9.29
2.BROWN	8.21
3.KOLYADA	7.96
4.BYCHENKO	7.93
5.CHEN	7.89
6.BALDE	7.68
7.TANAKA	7.64
8.VASILJEVS	7.50
9.NGUYEN	7.29
10.HOCHSTEIN	7.07
11.HINO	7.04

CO

1.HANYU	9.36
2.BROWN	8.71
3.KOLYADA	8.21
4.CHEN	8.14
5.BYCHENKO	7.96
6.TANAKA	7.71
7.BALDE	7.61
8.VASILJEVS	7.36
9.NGUYEN	7.29
10.HOCHSTEIN	7.14
11.HINO	7.00

IN

1.HANYU	9.46
2.BROWN	8.71
3.KOLYADA	8.21
4.CHEN	8.14
5.BYCHENKO	7.96
6.BALDE	7.89
7.TANAKA	7.75
8.NGUYEN	7.43
9.VASILJEVS	7.36
10.HOCHSTEIN	7.25
11.HINO	6.82

Official Event Page | Results (SP) | Judges Scores (SP) | Panel of Judges (SP)

* Top 6 skaters are color coded, so it's easier to spot where they are in each category.
* If you spot any mistake or if you have any suggestions/questions, please let me know! Thank you!

Other GPS Data Analysis List: 2016 Senior Grand Prix Data Analysis - Men

Geek On Ice · Nov 22, 2016

Data Analysis - 2016 NHK Trophy Mens FS

OVERVIEW (BV+GOE=TES-Ded+PCS=TSS) (*= Fall on Quad)

	BV (Jump/Spin/Step)	GOE (Jump/Spin/Step)	TES	Ded.	PCS	TSS
1.Yuzuru HANYU	94.13 (79.23/9.60/5.30)	11.93 (7.13/2.50/2.30)	106.06	1.00*	92.52	197.58
2.Nathan CHEN	100.25 (85.65/9.30/5.30)	-2.34 (-5.46/1.43/1.69)	97.91	1.00*	84.06	180.97
3.Keiji TANAKA	85.07 (71.17/9.30/4.60)	2.72 (-0.08/0.99/1.81)	87.79	0.00	80.16	167.95
4.Alexei BYCHENKO	74.78 (62.28/7.90/4.60)	3.48 (2.30/0.21/0.97)	78.26	0.00	76.48	154.74
5.Deniss VASILJEVS	74.14 (59.04/9.80/5.30)	4.95 (1.98/1.50/1.47)	79.09	0.00	74.14	153.23
6.Mikhail KOLYADA	71.43 (55.83/9.70/5.90)	-3.44 (-7.66/2.22/2.00)	67.99	2.00**	81.52	147.51
7.Jason BROWN	64.59 (49.09/10.20/5.30)	-2.15 (-7.84/2.92/2.77)	62.44	1.00*	82.70	144.14
8.Nam NGUYEN	67.82 (55.12/8.10/4.60)	-3.42 (-4.36/0.43/0.51)	64.40	1.00	73.70	137.10
9.Ryuju HINO	66.60 (52.00/10.00/4.60)	-0.23 (-1.62/1.29/0.10)	66.37	1.00	69.28	134.65
10.Grant HOCHSTEIN	61.99 (47.69/9.00/5.30)	-7.92 (-9.80/1.14/0.74)	54.07	1.00*	70.02	123.09
11.Elladj BALDE	50.30 (37.10/8.60/4.60)	-4.41 (-6.82/1.00/1.41)	45.89	1.00	74.14	119.03

BV

1.CHEN	100.25
2.HANYU	94.13
3.TANAKA	85.07
4.BYCHENKO	74.78
5.VASILJEVS	74.14
6.KOLYADA	71.43
7.NGUYEN	67.82
8.HINO	66.60
9.BROWN	64.59
10.HOCHSTEIN	61.99
11.BALDE	50.30

GOE

1.HANYU	11.93
2.VASILJEVS	4.95
3.BYCHENKO	3.48
4.TANAKA	2.72
5.HINO	-0.23
6.BROWN	-2.15
7.CHEN	-2.34
8.NGUYEN	-3.42
9.KOLYADA	-3.44
10.BALDE	-4.41
11.HOCHSTEIN	-7.92

TES

1.HANYU	106.06
2.CHEN	97.91
3.TANAKA	87.79
4.VASILJEVS	79.09
5.BYCHENKO	78.26
6.KOLYADA	67.99
7.HINO	66.37
8.NGUYEN	64.40
9.BROWN	62.44
10.HOCHSTEIN	54.07
11.BALDE	45.89

PCS

1.HANYU	92.52
2.CHEN	84.06
3.BROWN	82.70
4.KOLYADA	81.52
5.TANAKA	80.16
6.BYCHENKO	76.48
7.VASILJEVS	74.14
7.BALDE	74.14
9.NGUYEN	73.70
10.HOCHSTEIN	70.02
11.HINO	69.28

JUMP - Total (BV/GOE)

1.HANYU	86.36 (79.23/7.13)
2.CHEN	80.19 (85.65/-5.46)
3.TANAKA	71.09 (71.17/-0.08)
4.BYCHENKO	64.58 (62.28/2.30)
5.VASILJEVS	61.02 (59.04/1.98)
6.NGUYEN	50.76 (55.12/-4.36)
7.HINO	50.38 (52.00/-1.62)
8.KOLYADA	48.17 (55.83/-7.66)
9.BROWN	41.25 (49.09/-7.84)
10.HOCHSTEIN	37.89 (47.69/-9.80)
11.BALDE	30.28 (37.10/-6.82)

SPIN - Total (BV/GOE)

1.BROWN	13.12 (10.20/2.92)
2.HANYU	12.10 (9.60/2.50)
3.KOLYADA	11.92 (9.70/2.22)
4.VASILJEVS	11.30 (9.80/1.50)
5.HINO	11.29 (10.00/1.29)
6.CHEN	10.73 (9.30/1.43)
7.TANAKA	10.29 (9.30/0.99)
8.HOCHSTEIN	10.14 (9.00/1.14)
9.BALDE	9.60 (8.60/1.00)
10.BYCHENKO	8.11 (7.90/0.21)
11.NGUYEN	8.53 (8.10/0.43)

StSq + ChSq - Total (BV/GOE) (*=Lv.4)

1.BROWN	8.07 (5.30/2.77)
2.KOLYADA	7.90 (5.90*/2.00)
3.HANYU	7.60 (5.30/2.30)
4.CHEN	6.99 (5.30/1.69)
5.VASILJEVS	6.77 (5.30/1.47)
6.TANAKA	6.41 (4.60/1.81)
7.HOCHSTEIN	6.04 (5.30/0.74)
8.BALDE	6.01 (4.60/1.41)
9.BYCHENKO	5.57 (4.60/0.97)
10.NGUYEN	5.11 (4.60/0.51)
11.HINO	4.70 (4.60/0.10)

SS

1.HANYU	9.36
2.CHEN	8.54
3.KOLYADA	8.32
4.BROWN	8.07
5.TANAKA	8.04
6.BYCHENKO	7.89
7.BALDE	7.57
8.VASILJEVS	7.54
9.NGUYEN	7.39
10.HINO	7.32
11.HOCHSTEIN	7.04

TR

1.HANYU	9.07
2.BROWN	8.39
3.CHEN	8.32
4.KOLYADA	7.79
5.TANAKA	7.71
6.BYCHENKO	7.46
7.BALDE	7.36
8.NGUYEN	7.25
9.VASILJEVS	6.96
10.HOCHSTEIN	6.79
11.HINO	6.64

PE

1.HANYU	9.18
2.CHEN	8.25
3.TANAKA	8.11
4.KOLYADA	8.04
5.BROWN	8.00
6.BYCHENKO	7.79
7.VASILJEVS	7.57
8.NGUYEN	7.29
9.BALDE	7.14
10.HINO	6.86
11.HOCHSTEIN	6.79

CO

1.HANYU	9.29
2.CHEN	8.46
3.BROWN	8.43
4.KOLYADA	8.25
5.TANAKA	8.04
6.BYCHENKO	7.64
7.BALDE	7.54
8.VASILJEVS	7.50
9.NGUYEN	7.46
10.HOCHSTEIN	7.07
11.HINO	6.93

IN

1.HANYU	9.36
2.CHEN	8.46
2.BROWN	8.46
4.KOLYADA	8.36
5.TANAKA	8.18
6.VASILJEVS	7.50
7.BYCHENKO	7.46
7.NGUYEN	7.46
7.BALDE	7.46
10.HOCHSTEIN	7.32
11.HINO	6.89

Official Event Page | Results (Overall) | Results (FS) | Judges Scores (FS) | Panel of Judges (FS)

* Top 6 skaters are color coded, so it's easier to spot where they are in each category.
* If you spot any mistake or if you have any suggestions/questions, please let me know! Thank you!

Other GPS Data Analysis List: 2016 Senior Grand Prix Data Analysis - Men

Lysambre · Nov 22, 2016

No matter the results, I really love to see all of these analysis, thank you GOI :luv17:

shyne · Nov 22, 2016

Thanks for the analysis.

berry8 · Nov 22, 2016

Amazing thread!!! *-*

4everchan · Nov 22, 2016

I love how we are giving you thumbs up even when the chart is empty

hehehehe keep on the good work!

Crossover · Nov 23, 2016

Geek, if you also follow ladies' events and have a spare time after NHK, could you analyse ladies' events too especially on Skate Canada, Trophee de France and Cup of China? I love your analysis.

Geek On Ice · Nov 24, 2016

Thank you so much, Lysambre, shyne, berry8, 4everchan and Crossover!

4everchan said:
I love how we are giving you thumbs up even when the chart is empty hehehehe keep on the good work!

I know! I was so surpised... lol. :eeking: I'm just so happy to know everyone enjoys these analysis! :luv17:

Crossover said:
Geek, if you also follow ladies' events and have a spare time after NHK, could you analyse ladies' events too especially on Skate Canada, Trophee de France and Cup of China? I love your analysis.

Yes, if I have time I would love to do Ladies' events too. But first I want to complete the rest of the GPS for Men. Hopefully before GPF! :yahoo:

I actually created a new post in general GPS forum AND I have completed TdF SP/FS Analysis so they are included in that post.
(I revised the FS one that I did originally, to be consistent with other analysis. So now FS analysis has all skaters instead of just top 5.)

Other GPS Data Analysis List: 2016 Senior Grand Prix Data Analysis - Men

I'm so excited about NHK! See you guys again after I put SP analysis up!
(FS analysis, it may take a little longer this time, because I have "NHK Trophy Viewing Party"

arty: w/ my friends this weekend. My apology in advance!!)

Geek On Ice · Nov 25, 2016

Just to let you guys know, I put Skate Canada SP Data Analysis up now, just in time for NHK SP starting shortly! :yahoo:

(* SC FS is coming later, but first I'll work on NHK SP & FS.)

da96103 · Nov 25, 2016

Geek On Ice said:
Data Analysis - 2016 NHK Trophy Mens FS - will be posted here

Thanks for the good job, although for a moment I thought my computer has virus.

Geek On Ice · Nov 25, 2016

Data Analysis - 2016 NHK Trophy Mens SP is updated with actual data now! (See above!)

da96103 said:
Thanks for the good job, although for a moment I thought my computer has virus.

Oh? Virus?? Did it give you some error or something?? :eeking: Let me know if you have any difficulties or errors! Thanks!!

Raomina · Nov 25, 2016

Top in every category except BV... that's how you dominate unquestionably. :agree:

Fayruza · Nov 25, 2016

Raomina said:
Top in every category except BV... that's how you dominate unquestionably. :agree:

If he could, he'd reign in BV as well.

ancientpeas · Nov 25, 2016

I always find these so interesting. Thanks for you all your hard work GOI. Are you planning to do this for the WC? That will be a huge undertaking. 24 (?) skaters instead of 12.

I think this shows that even if people can outdo in BV if your jumps are higher, faster, cleaner you can still get away with having less number of quads and win the TES.

Brown really does get a lot of positive PCS response from the judges considering he has the lowest BV. I think this shows that Brown would be in second if he even had a middle of the road TES. Really interested to see what happens in the LP tonight.

Geek On Ice · Nov 25, 2016

ancientpeas said:
I always find these so interesting. Thanks for you all your hard work GOI. Are you planning to do this for the WC? That will be a huge undertaking. 24 (?) skaters instead of 12.

Thank you, ancientpeas!
Yes, I am planning on doing this for GPF, WC and other events, if possible. I love doing these analysis!! :luv17:

Now that I've done them several times, my templates are getting organized and I'm slowly getting used to doing this process, trying better method for entering data etc! Also, thanks to great suggestions from posters (eg. one from Raomina for adding links to judges scores), I can always look for more improvement!

Still it does take time and I actually feel bad for not posting them sooner, so I appreciate your patience! :eek:

:
Well, hopefully by the time WC comes, doing 24 skaters shouldn't be too much problem!!
:hap93:

Interspectator · Nov 25, 2016

Geek On Ice said:
Thank you, ancientpeas!
Yes, I am planning on doing this for GPF, WC and other events, if possible. I love doing these analysis!! :luv17:

Now that I've done them several times, my templates are getting organized and I'm slowly getting used to doing this process, trying better method for entering data etc! Also, thanks to great suggestions from posters (eg. one from Raomina for adding links to judges scores), I can always look for more improvement!

Still it does take time and I actually feel bad for not posting them sooner, so I appreciate your patience! :
Well, hopefully by the time WC comes, doing 24 skaters shouldn't be too much problem!!
:hap93:

you are wonderful. thank you.

Tavi... · Nov 25, 2016

ancientpeas said:
I always find these so interesting. Thanks for you all your hard work GOI. Are you planning to do this for the WC? That will be a huge undertaking. 24 (?) skaters instead of 12.

I think this shows that even if people can outdo in BV if your jumps are higher, faster, cleaner you can still get away with having less number of quads and win the TES.

Brown really does get a lot of positive PCS response from the judges considering he has the lowest BV. I think this shows that Brown would be in second if he even had a middle of the road TES. Really interested to see what happens in the LP tonight.

PCS is supposed to be independent of TES, though it doesn't always work that way.

FYI, the low BV of this program resulted from mistakes; it's not an inherently easy program (actual BV if skated clean = 43.73; he lost 11 points on the << 4T, 2T in the combo, and lost levels on spins /footwork). Also, he ended up with net negative GOE here, which is really unusual for him.

As to his PCS here, I found it interesting that the Russian judge marked him quite low; with the exception of SS (where she was close to the average), she marked him about a full point lower than the average given by the other judges.

Interspectator · Nov 25, 2016

As far as general placement goes, it all looks good to me. But in PCS I'd put Hochstien up higher...I usually feel that way. He is extremely understated, like Kozuka but there is amazing quality in his skating that gets overlooked because of his quiet style.
I might also switch Tanaka and Bychenko's places in the PCS standings as well.

da96103 · Nov 25, 2016

da96103 said:
Thanks for the good job, although for a moment I thought my computer has virus.

No, no, was making a joke. Because the empty chart with dashes made me thought something is wrong with my display.

Geek On Ice · Nov 26, 2016

Data Analysis - 2016 NHK Trophy Mens FS is updated with actual data tables now! :yahoo:

I had a just enough time to finish the analysis, before the party I have to attend, so I thought I put it up asap, just in case some people still want to take a look at them!!

I may post my own opinion later on, but... hmm... I don't know... :scratch3:
Looking at these tables, and now that all 6 GPS for Men are finished, I really have mixed feeling about many things...
But very quickly I need to vent out about -4 GOE on Quad Fall! (So that I can enjoy that party better!!)

TBH I think having that extra -1.0 GOE on a quad fall does not assess the appropriate/correct jump abilities of skaters.
Also, it's kind of strange to me logically. A skater jumps an easier jump and fall it's less deduction, but if a skater jumps a difficult jump and fall you get more deduction?? Fall is a fall, why should a skater get more deduction for going for more difficult jumps? (I've actually read about the reason behind ISU coming up with this -4 already, so I kind of know why, but I am just wining about it. :angry2

I know, the score-wise, you still get more points if you jump a quad and fall. For example...

4T w/ fall = 10.30 BV - 4.00 GOE - 1.00 Ded. = 5.30 > 3T w/o GOE = 4.30 BV

But by only 1.00. So if the skater w/ 3T gets some positive GOE on 3T, then it will be other way around.
For 3T, GOE scale is like this, I believe.

Getting all +3 from judges = 2.10
Getting all +2 from judges = 1.70
Getting all +1 from judges = 0.70

I am NOT saying jumps are everything and we should only value more difficult jumps. I agree that sometimes the "clean" programs w/ less technical content can be just as powerful and beautiful too. But I'm just saying that having that extra -1 on quad fall seems unreasonable, especially now with some skaters going for 4Lz, 4F, 4Lo etc.

I have so much respect for Yuzuru, Nathan, Mikhail, Jason and Grant, for their quad attempts although they fell. (Especially Mikhail, who fell twice on quads, receiving -8. And I should mention Ryuju and Elladj too, although their attempts were DG.)
Better luck next time for all!! :cheer:

Oops! Better get ready now! :scard7:

2016 NHK Trophy Data Analysis - Men

Geek On Ice

Geek On Ice

Lysambre

shyne

berry8

4everchan

Crossover

All Hail the Queen

Geek On Ice

Geek On Ice

da96103

Geek On Ice

Raomina

Fayruza

Match Penalty

ancientpeas

The Notorious SEW

Geek On Ice

Interspectator

Tavi...

Interspectator

da96103

Geek On Ice

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