Predictions for Russian JGP team 2017-18

So, all the important events have been skated now and we can start predicting who will get JGP spots next season.

Russian Nationals Younger Age = RNYA
Russian Nationals Elder Age = RNEA

My personal predictions.

Ladies. I am assuming Alina and Stasya will move to seniors. I am not so sure about Polina though.
Will make the JGP team for sure assuming nothing major happens to them between now and August.
Anastasiia Gubanova. She was 2nd at JGPF final and she won Cup Final. She was only 7th at the Junior Nationals.
Alexandra Trusova. She was 4th at Junior Nationals, 2nd at the RNEA, 3rd at the RNYA and 3rd at the Cup Final.
Daria Panenkova. She was 5th at the Junior Nationals and 4th at the RNEA.
Alisa Fedichkina. She was 6th at the Junior Nationals and 10th at the Senior Nationals.
(Polina Tsurskaya. If she doesn't move to seniors.)

Have a good chance for JGP events.
Anastasia Tarakanova. She won both RNYA and RNEA. She was 4th at the Cup Final but only 14th at Junior Nationals.
Anastasia Gulyakova. She was 5th at the RNEA, 6th at the Cup Final and 8th at the Junior Nationals. She will make her JGP debut for sure if she will have the planned 3A.

Have a chance for JGP events but needs to be impressive at the test skate event
Viktoria Vasilieva. She was 2nd at the Cup Final, 6th at the RNEA but only 13th at the Junior Nationals.
Ekaterina Kurakova. She was 9th at the Junior Nationals and 5th at the Cup Final.
Elizaveta Nugumanova. She was 3rd at the RNEA, 5th at the JGPF, 10th at the Cup Final and 11th at the Junior Nationals.

Have a chance only if one is really amazing at the test skate event.
Anna Shcherbakova. She was 2nd at the RNYA and 8th at the Cup Final. Didn't skate the Junior Nationals or RNEA. She really needs to be really great at the test skate event if she wants to make her JGP debut next season.
Anna Tarusina. She was 10th at the Junior Nationals.
Sofia Samodurova. She was 12th at the Junior Nationals, 7th at the RNEA and 7th at the Cup Final.
Alisa Lozko. She was 8th at the RNEA and 9th at the Cup Final.

Men.
Igor Efimchuk
Makar Ignatov
Alexey Erokhov
Artem Frolov
Ilia Skirda
Roman Savosin

Egor Rukhin
Petr Gumennik
Evgeni Semenenko
Artem Kovalev

Pairs. This one is really difficult to predict. This is the team I would like to see.
Boikova/Kozlovskii
Atakhanova/Spiridonov
Mishina/Gallyamov
Kvartalova/Sviatchenko
Zhuk/Britkov
Kudryavtseva/Simenenko

Ice dance
Shpilevaya/Smirnov
Polishchuk/Vakhnov
Skoptsova/Aleshin
Konkina/Yakushev
Shevchenko/Eremenko
Khudaberdieva/Nazarov
Ushakova/Nekrasov

I'm predicting for ladies:
Anastasiia Gubanova (a lock)
Alexandra Trusova (2nd lock imo, she's young and russia would want to push her as the new star and she has all the difficulty and big jumps)
Daria Panenkova (quite a lock as well, she backloads and tano(or rippons) all her jumps which gives her great TES and she is consistent)
Anna Shcherbakova (she didn't participate in some of the competitions but again in the ones where she competed, she backloads every jump and is quite consistent and gets high scores. And she's another 2004-er and russia would want to push her as the new star)
Anastasia Tarakanova (she wasn't so consistent at the beginning of the season but when she hits she wins everything so if she does reasonably well at the test event, she could easily get a spot. Also, she's one of the 2004 babies and she has better skating skills than other 2004babies imo)
Viktoria Vasilieva (she only bombed twice: jr. nats SP and NEA sp, she has been one of the few girls consistently getting 125-130 for her FS when she hits )
Anastasia Gulyakova (well she has a 3A and loads of tanos and rippons, gets great TES and has consistently ranking high in important comps)
Alisa Fedichkina (honestly I'm not so sure about her. She hasn't really been doing really good long programs and she gets a lot of carrots from international judges )
Russian has 15 spots in total right? so there's one person that's only going to get 1 spot and I think it might be Fedichkina. but I guess these 8 girls should get the 7+1 spots. Hopefully they will all do well at the test event.

Honorable mentions:
Ekaterina Kurakova
Elizaveta Nugumanova
Alisa Lozko
Ksenia Pankova
Diana Guseva
Alena Kostornaya
Anastasia Kostyuk
Anna Tarusina
(These girls might also have a chance, I think they would be invited to the test event)

PiggytailProdigy said:

Anna Shcherbakova (she didn't participate in some of the competitions but again in the ones where she competed, she backloads every jump and is quite consistent and gets high scores. And she's another 2004-er and russia would want to push her as the new star)

Alisa Fedichkina (honestly I'm not so sure about her. She hasn't really been doing really good long programs and she gets a lot of carrots from international judges )
Russian has 15 spots in total right? so there's one person that's only going to get 1 spot and I think it might be Fedichkina. but I guess these 8 girls should get the 7+1 spots. Hopefully they will all do well at the test event.

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Traditionally Russian Fed has put a lot of weight on Junior National placements and since Anna wasn't there and so many other ladies have done so well this season I think the only way she will make the team is if she is really amazing at the test skate. She is totally capable to do that but the competition will be extremely fierce. I really hope she does make the team but it will not be easy for her.

Fedichkina was 6th at the Junior Nationals and traditionally TOP 6 skaters will get a JGP spot assuming nothing major has happened to them.

Russia has 14 spots, seven JGP events and 2 spots per event. They had 15 spots when Russia had their home event where they had 3 spots. They don't have a home event next season.

PiggytailProdigy said:

Alexandra Trusova (2nd lock imo, she's young and russia would want to push her as the new star and she has all the difficulty and big jumps)
Anna Shcherbakova (she didn't participate in some of the competitions but again in the ones where she competed, she backloads every jump and is quite consistent and gets high scores. And she's another 2004-er and russia would want to push her as the new star)
Anastasia Tarakanova (she wasn't so consistent at the beginning of the season but when she hits she wins everything so if she does reasonably well at the test event, she could easily get a spot. Also, she's one of the 2004 babies and she has better skating skills than other 2004babies imo)

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I totally expect that 2004 will be another Super year just like 1996 and 1999, and hopefully also 2002.

1996: Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva
1997: I can't think of anyone.
1998: Pogorilaya, Lipnitskaya
1999: Medvedeva, Radionova
2000: Sotskova, Konstantinova, Sakhanovich
2001: Tsurskaya
2002: Zagitova, Gubanova, Panenkova, Fedichkina, Gulyakova, Nugumanova
2003: Vasilieva
2004: Trusova, Shcherbakova, Tarakanova
2005: Kanysheva

I didn't realize Anastasia Gulyakova had a 3A. Any videos?
I thought only Trusova was practicing a 3A.

Amer said:

I didn't realize Anastasia Gulyakova had a 3A. Any videos?
I thought only Trusova was practicing a 3A.

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These are different videos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ompIgMBwaMU
https://www.instagram.com/p/BQLgJL2AYAL/

Her thread might have one or two more videos, I can't recall how many of them were out there.

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?62725-Anastasia-Gulyakova

The Finn said:

I totally expect that 2004 will be another Super year just like 1996 and 1999, and hopefully also 2002.

1996: Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva
1997: I can't think of anyone.
1998: Pogorilaya, Lipnitskaya
1999: Medvedeva, Radionova
2000: Sotskova, Konstantinova, Sakhanovich
2001: Tsurskaya
2002: Zagitova, Gubanova, Panenkova, Fedichkina, Gulyakova, Nugumanova
2003: Vasilieva
2004: Trusova, Shcherbakova, Tarakanova
2005: Kanysheva

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2006: Valieva

The Finn said:

These are different videos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ompIgMBwaMU
https://www.instagram.com/p/BQLgJL2AYAL/

Her thread might have one or two more videos, I can't recall how many of them were out there.

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?62725-Anastasia-Gulyakova

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Much appreciated!!

ultras said:

2006: Valieva

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Oh I hope I hope Valieva makes it big!!

Amer said:

Oh I hope I hope Valieva makes it big!!

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and 2007 Sofia Akatieva

She fell like 10 times at RNYA, but the way she moves on ice and jumps looks promissing.

ultras said:

and 2007 Sofia Akatieva

She fell like 10 times at RNYA, but the way she moves on ice and jumps looks promissing.

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9/or just barely 10 years old. Doing 3Lz, 3Lo+2T and 2A in her SP (though jumps not clean, but if she has them planned, means she can jump them, probably just nervous and not enough experience)
Isn't she with Tutberidze now? If I remember correctly she changed coaches in the middle of the season.

1996: Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva
1997:
1998: Pogorilaya, Lipnitskaya
1999: Medvedeva, Radionova
2000: Sotskova, Konstantinova, Sakhanovich
2001: Tsurskaya
2002: Zagitova, Gubanova, Panenkova, Fedichkina, Gulyakova, Nugumanova
2003: Vasilieva
2004: Trusova, Shcherbakova, Tarakanova
2005: Kanysheva, Ryabova
2006: Valieva
2007: Akatieva

For 1997, only Maria Stavitskaya comes up as being somewhat relevant.
Course she switched to ice dancing.
Maybe include Anna Tarusina for 2003?

The Finn said:

Pairs. This one is really difficult to predict. This is the team I would like to see.
Boikova/Kozlovskii
Atakhanova/Spiridonov
Mishina/Gallyamov
Kvartalova/Sviatchenko
Zhuk/Britkov
Kudryavtseva/Simenenko

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The most likely candidates:
Boikova/Kozlovskii
Atakhanova/Spiridonov
Mishina/Gallyamov
Kvartalova/Sviatchenko
Kudryavtseva/Simenenko
Borisova/Sopot (if healthy and manage to get to their 2015-16 season level)
Ustimkina/Volodin
Pavliuschenko/Khodykin
Zhuk/Britkov (I think their chances are not as great because he is quite inconsistent wih his jumps)

That's nine pairs, but probably only six will get spots (unless some pair mess up and doesn't get their second spot).

It's a pity if Sofia Samodurova doesn't get at least 1 JGP slot.
Would agree that Nastia Gubanova, Alexandra Trusova, and Daria Panenkova are the sure bets for JGP. Assuming they get 2 slots each, that's 6 out of potential 14 slots already.
For the next tier, would go with Samodurova, Gulyakova, and Kurakova... and maybe Fedichkina if she stays junior, though I'd expect her to be possibly turning senior next season.
Then Tarakanova, Scherbakova, Vasilieva, Nugumanova, Lozko, and Tarusina.
That's potentially 9 (or 10 if Fedichkina stays junior) skaters for a max of 8 remaining spots -- guess a lot will depend on test skates and whether any of them have an explosive development of skills / consistency over the summer.

kalee said:

It's a pity if Sofia Samodurova doesn't get at least 1 JGP slot.

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The way I see it is that she is pretty far back as of now. Her placements at the most important domestic events hasn't been that good. She was only 12th at the Junior Nationals and outside of TOP 6 in other important events. I don't think her chances are much better than Lozko's as of now but obviously there is 4 months before the new season begins, so, anything is possible.

kalee said:

For the next tier, would go with Samodurova, Gulyakova, and Kurakova... and maybe Fedichkina if she stays junior, though I'd expect her to be possibly turning senior next season.

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She can skate Challenger events obviously but since she doesn't have the SB score to get any GP events she most likely will skate another JGP season. In theory she might get the 3rd Rostelecom spot but even that is unlikely because it is far more likely that Stasya or Polina (or even one of the older skaters) will get that spot. So, no point to turn down another JGP season if there is no realistic hope to get GP event(s).

The Finn said:

The way I see it is that she is pretty far back as of now. Her placements at the most important domestic events hasn't been that good. She was only 12th at the Junior Nationals and outside of TOP 6 in other important events. I don't think her chances are much better than Lozko's as of now but obviously there is 4 months before the new season begins, so, anything is possible.
.

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The fact that she is currently far back doesn't matter that much. Gubanova and Zagitova were quite far back at the end of the last season. It is how Samodurova will be in six months time what counts.

i'm hoping for a lineup like this:
stage1 gubanova panenkova
stage2 tarakanova gulyakova
stage3 gubanova shcherbakova
stage4 trusova vasilieva
stage5 shcherbakova gulyakova
stage6 trusova tarakanova
stage7 panenkova vasilieva

these girls are all podium capable and the real threats are only rika kihira and eunsoo lim or maybe young you as well. korea most certainly won't put young and eunsoo in the same stage so the worst scenario will be 4 girls competing for 3 spots on the podium and if everything goes well, russia might actually get 14 medals for JGP

PiggytailProdigy said:

i'm hoping for a lineup like this:
stage1 gubanova panenkova
stage2 tarakanova gulyakova
stage3 gubanova shcherbakova
stage4 trusova vasilieva
stage5 shcherbakova gulyakova
stage6 trusova tarakanova
stage7 panenkova vasilieva

these girls are all podium capable and the real threats are only rika kihira and eunsoo lim or maybe young you as well. korea most certainly won't put young and eunsoo in the same stage so the worst scenario will be 4 girls competing for 3 spots on the podium and if everything goes well, russia might actually get 14 medals for JGP

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I think that if Anna will make it to the team then that would also mean that she has been amazing at the test skate event and that should also mean that Russian Fed isn't going to put Nastia Gubanova and Shcherbakova in the same JGP event. So, the way I see it is that Gubanova, Shcherbakova and Trusova shouldn't skate at the same event but other than that it doesn't matter much who is the 2nd skater in each event. Personally I would most likely start with two ladies from Eteri's group since they have shown they are ready already early season. Also, I would give Gubanova a later start.

So, I would likely go with something like this.

1st Event: Shcherbakova and Panenkova
2nd Event: Trusova and Gulyakova
3rd Event: Tarakanova and Panenkova
4th Event: Shcherbakova and Fedichkina
5th Event: Gubanova and Gulyakova
6th Event: Trusova and Tarakanova
7th Event: Gubanova and Fedichkina

I will be crushed if Nugumanova and Lozko don't make the cut for next season. They are very special skaters.